Given scenarios describing future climates and socio-techno-economics, this study estimates the consequences for agricultural land use, combining models of crop growth and farm decision making to ...predict profitability over the whole of Europe, driven solely by soil and climate at each location. Each location is then classified by its profitability as intensive or extensive agriculture or not suitable for agriculture.
The main effects of both climate and socio-economics were in the agriculturally marginal areas of Europe. The results showed the effect of different climates is relatively small, whereas there are large variations when economic scenarios are included. Only Finland's agricultural area significantly responds to climate by increasing at the expense of forests in several scenarios. Several locations show more difference due to climate model (PCM versus HadCM3) than emission scenario, because of large differences in predicted precipitation, notably the Ardennes switching to arable in HadCM3.
Scenario modelling has identified several such regions where there is a need to be watchful, but few where all of the scenario results agree, suggesting great uncertainty in future projections. Thus, it has not been possible to predict any futures, though all results agree that in Central Europe, changes are likely to be relatively small.
The Tyndall coastal simulator Mokrech, Mustafa; Hanson, Susan; Nicholls, Robert J. ...
Journal of coastal conservation,
09/2011, Letnik:
15, Številka:
3
Journal Article
Recenzirano
The threat of sea-level rise and climate change means that coastal managers are being increasingly asked to make long-term assessments of potential coastal impacts and responses. In the UK, shoreline ...management planning (for flood and erosion hazards) and spatial planning now takes a 100 year perspective. An integrated framework across a wide range of physical and social issues is required for the assessment of coastal impacts and consequently for making sound management decisions. This paper provides an overview of the development of the 'Tyndall Coastal Simulator' including the underlying philosophy that is being followed. The Simulator is based on a series of linked climate models (CM) within a nested framework which recognises three spatial scales: (i) the global (GCM) scale; (ii) the regional scale and (iii) the Simulator Domain (a physiographic unit, such as a coastal sub-cell). Within the nesting, the larger scale provides the boundary conditions for the smaller scale. The models feed into each other and describe a range of relevant processes: sea level, tides, surges, waves, sediment transport and coastal morphology. Different climate scenarios, as well as the range of uncertainty, are being explored. Communication of results is a major issue and the Simulator includes a dedicated GIS-based user interface that allows a wide range of queries of model outputs. The paper demonstrates the possibility of developing an integrated framework that is multi-scale and capable of linking various models in order to simulate complex coastal processes and consequently allowing long-term assessments that are useful for setting future management plans.
This paper proposes a methodology based solely on spatial data to analyse whether and, to what extent, farmer imitation leaves an observable footprint on an agricultural landscape. Geographical ...Information System (GIS) analysis of parcel and farm location data of a study region in central Belgium was developed as an alternative methodology to farmer interviews. Results suggest that imitation is not an important determinant of agricultural land use patterns in the study area. The effect of imitation on landscapes is limited to the extent of being hardly significant. Neighbouring parcels cultivated by farmers who live in close proximity are only slightly more similar than neighbouring parcels cultivated by farmers who live further away from one another. The results question the validity of the assumptions underlying agent-based models that try to explain agricultural land use through imitation behaviour.
The results should, however, be considered with caution as the proposed methodology has two limitations. First, comparison between neighbouring parcels could not identify the imitation effect from all factors that influence agricultural land use. Relative space was not accounted for, which led to two possible explanations for the similarity of neighbouring parcels: imitation or the location of a parcel relative to the farm. Secondly, the method was applied to aggregated land use classes for a single year, which did not allow for the effect of crop rotations in understanding imitation behaviour.
1 A spatial autocorrelation analysis was undertaken to investigate the spatial structure of annual abundance for the pest aphid Myzus persicae collected in suction traps distributed across north‐west ...Europe.
2 The analysis was applied at two different scales. The Moran index was used to estimate the degree of spatial autocorrelation at all sites within the study area (global level). The contributions of each site to the global index were identified by the use of a local indicator of spatial autocorrelation (LISA). A hierarchical cluster analysis was undertaken to highlight differences between groups of resulting correlograms.
3 Similarity between traps was shown to occur over large geographical distances, suggesting an impact of phenomena such as climatic gradients or land use types.
4 The presence of outliers and zones of similarity (hot‐spots) and of dissimilarity (cold‐spots) were identified indicating a strong impact of local effects.
5 Several groups of traps characterized by similarities in their local spatial structure (correlograms, value of Moran's Ii) also had similar values for land use variables (the area occupied by agricultural zones, forest and sea).
6 It is concluded that trap data can provide information about Myzus persicae that is representative of large geographical areas. Thus, trap data can be used to estimate the aerial abundance of this species, even if the suction traps are not regularly and densely distributed.
Regional analyses of risks from climate change require reproducible, consistent and robust approaches to downscaling global socioeconomic scenarios, with coherent processes that work across multiple ...projects and communities. We address this need by developing an iterative approach to stakeholder-based Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) downscaling and co-design, enabling us to extend SSPs while maintaining their consistency from global to sub-national scales. We apply this approach to extend a set of SSPs for the United Kingdom, developing a broad range of user-oriented scenario products including (a) a set of key categories of socioeconomic drivers and their dimensions, (b) extended scenario narratives, (c) system diagrams, and (d) semi-quantitative trends of key socioeconomic indicators. Importantly, the co-design process outlined in this study was implemented fully online, providing valuable lessons on the implications of the online approach for participatory involvement, stakeholder inclusiveness and representativeness. In addition to presenting the approach and its resulting scenario products, we highlight how it contributes to adding detail and nuance, as well as geographic, temporal and sectoral extension to the scenarios. Furthermore, we discuss the benefits of the approach as a reproducible and robust roadmap to SSP downscaling, with respect to deepening the co-design process and increasing scenario legitimacy and validation.
This article reviews the current state of knowledge on the response of soils to climate change, and the implications such changes have for agriculture. The article is based on the material reported ...in the IPCC second assessment report (Watson et al., 1996) and updated with more recent information, where appropriate.
The ACCELERATES project aimed to assess the vulnerability of European agro-ecosystems to environmental change in support of the conventions of climate change and biological diversity. This was based ...on a study of the impact of environmental change on land use and biodiversity (for selected species and habitats) in agro-ecosystems. The approach integrated existing models of agricultural land use, species distribution and habitat fragmentation within a common scenario framework, so that impacts could be synthesised for different global change problems. The results suggest that policy and conservation strategies should not tackle the vulnerability of agriculture and biodiversity independently. Potential changes within one sector may have important opportunities for another sector that policy could fail to exploit, or positive outcomes in one sector could have adverse effects elsewhere. For example, there are potential benefits to conservation management that arise from agricultural land abandonment or extensification. However, agricultural land abandonment increases the vulnerability of farmers. Society, through policy, will need, therefore, to resolve the conflicts that are likely to arise between agriculture and the conservation of biodiversity in the future. The scientific community can contribute to this process by seeking to reduce the uncertainties that bedevil future environmental change assessments, through the development of better and more integrated methods (of modelling and scenario development) to analyse and interpret cross-sectoral vulnerability.
The response of erosion and sediment export to past land-use change has been studied in four agricultural areas of Europe. Three of these areas were subject to land abandonment or de-intensification ...and one to intensification of land-use practices. Erosion and sediment yield were modeled using the WaTEM/SEDEM model, which combines the RUSLE equation with a sediment routing algorithm. Spatial relationships between the RUSLE
C-factor (i.e. land-use) and other erosion and sediment export-determining factors (slope, soil erodibility and distance to rivers) were investigated, as these account for non-linearity in the response of erosion and sediment export to land-use change.
Erosion and sediment export have decreased enormously in the de-intensified areas, but slightly increased in the intensively cultivated area. The spatial pattern of land-use change in relation to other erosion and sediment export-determining factors appears to have a large impact on the response of soil erosion and sediment export to land-use change. That the drivers of abandonment of arable land and erosion coincide indicates that de-intensification leads to a more favourable landscape pattern with respect to reduction of erosion and sediment export. This mechanism applies not only within the study areas, but also among the European study areas where the process of intensification of some areas and de-intensification of others might result in an overall decrease of erosion and sediment yield through time.
Models of land use change are becoming increasingly complex as they attempt to explore the effects of climatic, political, economic and demographic change on land systems and the services these ...systems produce. ‘Bottom-up’ agent based models are a useful method for exploring the effects of local processes and human behaviour, but are generally limited to small spatial scales due to the complex parameterisations involved. Conversely, ‘top-down’ land allocation models can be applied at large spatial scales, but are less adept at accounting for human behaviour and non-economic factors such as the supply of ecosystem services. Models that combine the strengths of these two approaches are required for the advancement of land use science. Here, we present an agent based land use modelling framework designed to be run over large spatial extents and to be capable of accounting for relevant forms of human behaviour, variations in land use intensities, multifunctional ecosystem service production and the actions of institutions that affect land use change. We give a full description of this framework, called CRAFTY (Competition for Resources between Agent Functional TYpes), and provide details of how it can be applied and extended, including some simple examples of its ability to model important processes of land use change. These include changes in demand for and supply of ecosystem services, variation in land use intensity and multi-functionality, and heterogeneous behaviour amongst land managers.
•Large-scale models of land use change require improved treatment of human behaviour.•We present CRAFTY: an agent based land use modelling framework for use over large geographical extents.•The framework accounts for land use intensity and multifunctionality.•We allow incorporation of a range of ecosystem services and institutional behaviour.•We demonstrate the framework’s ability to simulate important drivers of land use change.
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