Supplying food for the anticipated global population of over 9 billion in 2050 under changing climate conditions is one of the major challenges of the 21st century. Agricultural expansion and ...intensification contributes to global environmental change and risks the long-term sustainability of the planet. It has been proposed that no more than 15% of the global ice-free land surface should be converted to cropland. Bioenergy production for land-based climate mitigation places additional pressure on limited land resources. Here we test normative targets of food supply and bioenergy production within the cropland planetary boundary using a global land-use model. The results suggest supplying the global population with adequate food is possible without cropland expansion exceeding the planetary boundary. Yet this requires an increase in food production, especially in developing countries, as well as a decrease in global crop yield gaps. However, under current assumptions of future food requirements, it was not possible to also produce significant amounts of first generation bioenergy without cropland expansion. These results suggest that meeting food and bioenergy demands within the planetary boundaries would need a shift away from current trends, for example, requiring major change in the demand-side of the food system or advancing biotechnologies.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
INTRODUCTION: Land exchange can be a major factor driving land-use change in regions with high pressure on land, but is generally not incorporated in land-use change models. Here we present an ...agent-based model to simulate land-use change arising from land exchange between multiple agent types representing farmers, nature organizations, and estate owners. METHODS: The RULEX model (Rural Land EXchange) was calibrated and applied to a 300 km²case study area in the east of the Netherlands. Decision rules about which actor will sell and buy land, as well as which specific land to buy or sell are based on historical observations, interviews, and choice experiments. RESULTS: A reconstruction of land-use change for the period 2001–2009 demonstrates that RULEX reproduces most observed land-use trends and patterns. Given that RULEX simulates only one mechanism of land-use change, i.e. land exchange, it is conservative in simulating change. CONCLUSIONS: With this model, we demonstrate the potential of incorporating land market processes in an agent-based, land-use change model. This supports understanding of land-use change that is brought about by ownership change, which is an important process in areas where pressure on land is high. The soundness of the process representation was corroborated by stakeholders within the study area. Land exchange models can be used to assess the impact of changes in climate, markets, and policy on land use change, and help to increase effectiveness of alternative land purchasing strategies by stakeholders or spatial planning policy.
A new conceptual framework is presented for the assessment of the impacts of environmental change drivers on ecosystem service provision and the policy and management responses that would derive from ...the valuation of these impacts. The Framework for Ecosystem Service Provision (FESP), is based on an interpretation of the widely-used Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework. FESP differs from the DPSIR by offering clarity in the definitions of the various DPSIR components as well as introducing novel elements of relevance to the ecosystem service approach. The value of a common framework lies in making the comparison across competing services accessible and clear as well as highlighting the conflicts and trade-offs between not only multiple ecosystem services, but also multiple service beneficiaries. The framework is explicit, for example, in recognising as state variables not only the attributes of the Ecosystem Service Providers (ESPs), but also the attributes of the Ecosystem Service Beneficiaries (ESBs). That a service depends as much on the attributes of the people whose well-being benefits from the service as on the attributes of the biology providing the service is an important step in integrated social-ecological thinking. FESP also identifies the mechanisms of either mitigation or adaptation to the environmental change problem through the effect of these response strategies on specific pressure or state variables. In this way, FESP can contribute to the policies and strategies that are used to support conservation management. This paper describes the principles of FESP and presents some indicative examples of its practical implementation.
From actors to agents in socio-ecological systems models Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Robinson, D. T.; Murray-Rust, D.
Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B. Biological sciences,
01/2012, Letnik:
367, Številka:
1586
Journal Article
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The ecosystem service concept has emphasized the role of people within socio-ecological systems (SESs). In this paper, we review and discuss alternative ways of representing people, their behaviour ...and decision-making processes in SES models using an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach. We also explore how ABM can be empirically grounded using information from social survey. The capacity for ABM to be generalized beyond case studies represents a crucial next step in modelling SESs, although this comes with considerable intellectual challenges. We propose the notion of human functional types, as an analogy of plant functional types, to support the expansion (scaling) of ABM to larger areas. The expansion of scope also implies the need to represent institutional agents in SES models in order to account for alternative governance structures and policy feedbacks. Further development in the coupling of human-environment systems would contribute considerably to better application and use of the ecosystem service concept.
Perception-based typologies have been used to explore the decision making process of farmers and to inform policy design. These typologies have been criticised, however, for not fully capturing true ...farmer behaviour, and are consequently limited for supporting policy formulation. We present a method that develops a typology, using a social survey approach based on how farmers perceive their environment (e.g. birds and agri-environmental schemes). We then apply time-series census data on past farm strategies (i.e. land use allocation, management style and participation into agri-environmental schemes) to refine these typologies. Consequently, this offers an approach to improving the profiling of farmer types, and strengthens the validity of input into future agricultural policies. While the social survey highlights a certain degree of awareness towards birds with respect to farmer types, the analysis of past farm strategies indicated that farmers did not entirely follow their stated objectives. External factors such as input and output price signals and subsidy levels had a stronger influence on their strategies rather than stated environmental and social issues. Consequently, the refining of farmer types using this approach would aid the design of policy instruments, which integrate ecological issues within planning.
► Four farmer types were generated based on attitudes towards birds and farming objectives. ► Time-series census showing past behaviour does not correspond with attitudes and objectives. ► Market prices and subsidies have stronger influence on farm strategy. ► Financial reward for agri-environmental management should be increased.
A biodiversity target based on species extinctions Rounsevell, Mark D A; Harfoot, Mike; Harrison, Paula A ...
Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science),
2020-Jun-12, 2020-06-12, 20200612, Letnik:
368, Številka:
6496
Journal Article
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A single target comparable to the 2°C climate target may help galvanize biodiversity policy
Although worldwide loss of biodiversity arising from human activities is widely known, policy has been ...unable to arrest the decline (
1
). Much of this failure can be attributed to a lack of mainstreaming of biodiversity in public policy (2, pp. 741–762) and limitations in raising the profile of biodiversity loss for politicians and the public. Of the 20 Aichi Biodiversity Targets (ABTs) established in 2010 by the Convention on Biodiversity (CBD), only four show good progress, whereas 12 related to the state of nature show worsening trends (
1
). With the 2020 target date for the ABTs now upon us, it is critical to define a post-2020 agenda to arrest the loss of biodiversity. This will require a target, underpinned by a clear global goal for biodiversity, that can be readily communicated to galvanize both political will and public support. Similarly to how the climate change community uses a single indicator (global mean temperature change) and a target (maximum 2°C rise relative to preindustrial levels) as a rallying point for policy action and agreements, we propose a 2°C-like target for biodiversity (see table S1): a measurable, near-term target of keeping described species extinctions to well below 20 per year over the next 100 years across all major groups (fungi, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates) and across all ecosystem types (marine, freshwater, and terrestrial).
Land use contributes to environmental change, but is also influenced by such changes. Climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels’ changes alter agricultural crop productivity, plant water ...requirements and irrigation water availability. The global food system needs to respond and adapt to these changes, for example, by altering agricultural practices, including the crop types or intensity of management, or shifting cultivated areas within and between countries. As impacts and associated adaptation responses are spatially specific, understanding the land use adaptation to environmental changes requires crop productivity representations that capture spatial variations. The impact of variation in management practices, including fertiliser and irrigation rates, also needs to be considered. To date, models of global land use have selected agricultural expansion or intensification levels using relatively aggregate spatial representations, typically at a regional level, that are not able to characterise the details of these spatially differentiated responses. Here, we show results from a novel global modelling approach using more detailed biophysically derived yield responses to inputs with greater spatial specificity than previously possible. The approach couples a dynamic global vegetative model (LPJ‐GUESS) with a new land use and food system model (PLUMv2), with results benchmarked against historical land use change from 1970. Land use outcomes to 2100 were explored, suggesting that increased intensity of climate forcing reduces the inputs required for food production, due to the fertilisation and enhanced water use efficiency effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, but requiring substantial shifts in the global and local patterns of production. The results suggest that adaptation in the global agriculture and food system has substantial capacity to diminish the negative impacts and gain greater benefits from positive outcomes of climate change. Consequently, agricultural expansion and intensification may be lower than found in previous studies where spatial details and processes consideration were more constrained.
A novel global land use modelling approach with a more detailed biophysically derived yield responses to inputs with greater spatial specificity than previously possible is presented. Land use outcomes to 2100 suggest that increased intensity of climate forcing reduces the inputs required for food production, due to the fertilisation and enhanced water use efficiency effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, but requiring shifts in the global and local patterns of production.
Challenges for land system science Rounsevell, Mark D.A.; Pedroli, Bas; Erb, Karl-Heinz ...
Land use policy,
10/2012, Letnik:
29, Številka:
4
Journal Article
Recenzirano
► We review land system science challenges in observation, modelling and scenarios. ► Observation combined with modelling can improve insight into land system processes. ► Models need to reconcile ...the multi-scale dynamics of land system change. ► Model results require scientific interpretation when used in land use policy. ► Explorative scenarios and normative visions can together support decision-making.
While considerable progress has been made in understanding land use change, land system science continues to face a number of grand challenges. This paper discusses these challenges with a focus on empirical land system studies, land system modelling and the analysis of future visions of land system change. Contemporary landscapes are contingent outcomes of past and present patterns, processes and decisions. Thus, empirical analysis of past and present land-use change has an important role in providing insights into the socio-economic and ecological processes that shape land use transitions. This is especially important with respect to gradual versus rapid land system dynamics and in understanding changes in land use intensity. Combining the strengths of empirical analysis with multi-scale modelling will lead to new insights into the processes driving land system change. New modelling methods that combine complex systems thinking at a local level with macro-level economic analysis of the land system would reconcile the multi-scale dynamics currently encapsulated in bottom-up and top-down modelling approaches. Developments in land use futures analysis could focus on integrating explorative scenarios that reflect possible outcomes with normative visions that identify desired outcomes. Such an approach would benefit from the broad and in-depth involvement of stakeholders in order to link scientific findings to political and societal decision-making culminating in a set of key choices and consequences. Land system models have an important role in supporting future land use policy, but model outputs require scientific interpretation rather than being presented as predictions. The future of land system science is strongly dependent on the research community's capacity to bring together the elements of research discussed in the paper, via empirical data collection and analysis of observed processes, computer simulation across scale levels and futures analysis of alternative, normative visions through stakeholder engagement.
Addressing climate change vulnerability requires an understanding of both the level of climate impacts and the capacity of the exposed population to cope. This study developed a methodology for ...allowing users to explore vulnerability to changes in ecosystem services as a result of climatic and socio-economic changes. It focuses on the vulnerability of Europe across multiple sectors by combining the outputs of a regional integrated assessment (IA) model, the CLIMSAVE IA Platform, with maps of coping capacity based on the five capitals approach. The presented methodology enables stakeholder-derived socio-economic futures to be represented within a quantitative integrated modelling framework in a way that changes spatially and temporally with the socio-economic storyline. Vulnerability was mapped for six key ecosystem services in 40 combined climate and socio-economic scenarios. The analysis shows that, whilst the north and west of Europe are generally better placed to cope with climate impacts than the south and east, coping could be improved in all areas. Furthermore, whilst the lack of coping capacity in dystopian scenarios often leads to greater vulnerability, there are complex interactions between sectors that lead to patterns of vulnerability that vary spatially, with scenario and by sector even within the more utopian futures.
We present the most comprehensive pan‐European assessment of future changes in cropland and grassland soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks to date, using a dedicated process‐based SOC model and ...state‐of‐the‐art databases of soil, climate change, land‐use change and technology change. Soil carbon change was calculated using the Rothamsted carbon model on a European 10 × 10′ grid using climate data from four global climate models implementing four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios (SRES). Changes in net primary production (NPP) were calculated by the Lund–Potsdam–Jena model. Land‐use change scenarios, interpreted from the narratives of the IPCC SRES story lines, were used to project changes in cropland and grassland areas. Projections for 1990–2080 are presented for mineral soil only.
Climate effects (soil temperature and moisture) will tend to speed decomposition and cause soil carbon stocks to decrease, whereas increases in carbon input because of increasing NPP will slow the loss. Technological improvement may further increase carbon inputs to the soil. Changes in cropland and grassland areas will further affect the total soil carbon stock of European croplands and grasslands. While climate change will be a key driver of change in soil carbon over the 21st Century, changes in technology and land‐use change are estimated to have very significant effects.
When incorporating all factors, cropland and grassland soils show a small increase in soil carbon on a per area basis under future climate (1–7 t C ha−1 for cropland and 3–6 t C ha−1 for grassland), but when the greatly decreasing area of cropland and grassland are accounted for, total European cropland stocks decline in all scenarios, and grassland stocks decline in all but one scenario. Different trends are seen in different regions. For Europe (the EU25 plus Norway and Switzerland), the cropland SOC stock decreases from 11 Pg in 1990 by 4–6 Pg (39–54%) by 2080, and the grassland SOC stock increases from 6 Pg in 1990 to 1.5 Pg (25%) under the B1 scenario, but decreases to 1–3 Pg (20–44%) under the other scenarios. Uncertainty associated with the land‐use and technology scenarios remains unquantified, but worst‐case quantified uncertainties are 22.5% for croplands and 16% for grasslands, equivalent to potential errors of 2.5 and 1 Pg SOC, respectively. This is equivalent to 42–63% of the predicted SOC stock change for croplands and 33–100% of the predicted SOC stock change for grasslands. Implications for accounting for SOC changes under the Kyoto Protocol are discussed.
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