Species distribution models (SDMs) provide insights into species' ecology and distributions and are frequently used to guide conservation priorities. However, many uses of SDMs require model ...transferability, which refers to the degree to which a model built in one place or time can successfully predict distributions in a different place or time. If a species' model has high spatial transferability, the relationship between abundance and predictor variables should be consistent across a geographical distribution. We used Breeding Bird Surveys, climate and remote sensing data, and a novel method for quantifying model transferability to test whether SDMs can be transferred across the geographic ranges of 129 species of North American birds. We also assessed whether species' traits are correlated with model transferability. We expected that prediction accuracy between modeled regions should decrease with 1) geographical distance, 2) degree of extrapolation and 3) the distance from the core of a species' range. Our results suggest that very few species have a high model transferability index (MTI). Species with large distributions, with distributions located in areas with low topographic relief, and with short lifespans are more likely to exhibit low transferability. Transferability between modeled regions also decreased with geographical distance and degree of extrapolation. We expect that low transferability in SDMs potentially resulted from both ecological non‐stationarity (i.e. biological differences within a species across its range) and over‐extrapolation. Accounting for non‐stationarity and extrapolation should substantially increase the prediction success of species distribution models, therefore enhancing the success of conservation efforts.
The Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) initiated one of the most sweeping changes to forest management in the world, affecting 10 million hectares of federal land. The NWFP is a science-based plan ...incorporating monitoring and adaptive management and provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the influence of policy. We used >25 years of region-wide bird surveys, forest data, and landownership maps to test this policy’s effect on biodiversity. Clearcutting decreased rapidly, and we expected populations of olderforest–associated birds to stabilize on federal land, but to continue declining on private industrial lands where clearcutting continued. In contrast, we expected declines in early-seral–associated species on federal land because of reduced anthropogenic disturbance since the NWFP. Bayesian hierarchical models revealed that bird species’ population trends tracked changes in forest composition. However, against our expectations, declines of birds associated with older forests accelerated. These declines are partly explained by losses of older forests due to fire on federal land and continued clearcutting elsewhere. Indeed, the NWFP anticipated that reversing declines of older forests would take time. Overall, the early-seral ecosystem area was stable, but declined in two ecoregions—the Coast Range and Cascades—along with early-seral bird populations. Although the NWFP halted clearcutting on federal land, this has so far been insufficient to reverse declines in older-forest–associated bird populations. These findings underscore the importance of continuing to prioritize older forests under the NWFP and ensuring that the recently proposed creation of early-seral ecosystems does not impede the conservation and development of older-forest structure.
Aim: Habitat loss and climate change constitute two of the greatest threats to biodiversity worldwide, and theory predicts that these factors may act synergistically to affect population ...trajectories. Recent evidence indicates that structurally complex old-growth forest can be cooler than other forest types during spring and summer months, thereby offering potential to buffer populations from negative effects of warming. Old growth may also have higher food and nest-site availability for certain species, which could have disproportionate fitness benefits as species approach their thermal limits. Location: Pacific Northwestern United States. Methods: We predicted that negative effects of climate change on 30-year population trends of old-growth-associated birds should be dampened in landscapes with high proportions of old-growth forest. We modelled population trends from Breeding Bird Survey data for 13 species as a function of temperature change and proportion old-growth forest. Results: We found a significant negative effect of summer warming on only two species. However, in both of these species, this relationship between warming and population decline was not only reduced but reversed, in old-growth-dominated landscapes. Across all 13 species, evidence for a buffering effect of old-growth forest increased with the degree to which species were negatively influenced by summer warming. Main conclusions: These findings suggest that old-growth forests may buffer the negative effects of climate change for those species that are most sensitive to temperature increases. Our study highlights a mechanism whereby management strategies to curb degradation and loss of old-growth forests—in addition to protecting habitat—could enhance biodiversity persistence in the face of climate warming.
Research hypotheses have been a cornerstone of science since before Galileo. Many have argued that hypotheses (1) encourage discovery of mechanisms, and (2) reduce bias—both features that should ...increase transferability and reproducibility. However, we are entering a new era of big data and highly predictive models where some argue the hypothesis is outmoded. We hypothesized that hypothesis use has declined in ecology and evolution since the 1990s, given the substantial advancement of tools further facilitating descriptive, correlative research. Alternatively, hypothesis use may have become more frequent due to the strong recommendation by some journals and funding agencies that submissions have hypothesis statements. Using a detailed literature analysis (N = 268 articles), we found prevalence of hypotheses in eco–evo research is very low (6.7%–26%) and static from 1990–2015, a pattern mirrored in an extensive literature search (N = 302,558 articles). Our literature review also indicates that neither grant success nor citation rates were related to the inclusion of hypotheses, which may provide disincentive for hypothesis formulation. Here, we review common justifications for avoiding hypotheses and present new arguments based on benefits to the individual researcher. We argue that stating multiple alternative hypotheses increases research clarity and precision, and is more likely to address the mechanisms for observed patterns in nature. Although hypotheses are not always necessary, we expect their continued and increased use will help our fields move toward greater understanding, reproducibility, prediction, and effective conservation of nature.
We use a quantitative literature review to show that use of a priori hypotheses is still rare in the fields of ecology and evolution. We provide suggestions about the group and individual‐level benefits of hypothesis use.
The effective conservation of birds requires knowledge of species-specific population dynamics. Yet these dynamics during migration and across age and sex categories are poorly understood for small ...birds. The goal of this study was to assess large-scale fall migration patterns of Rufous Hummingbirds (Selasphorus rufus). Because the age and sex categories of this species depart from the breeding grounds and arrive from migration on different weeks, we predicted that each might use different migration routes, differ in migration speeds, and vary in their weekly distributions. Rufous Hummingbirds are among a few declining species for which a large amount of banding data is available during migration and across the migration corridor. We assembled a large hummingbird capture dataset (28,948 captures; 459 unique locations; fall migrations from 1998 to 2013) and used the centroid location of each age-sex-year-week group to calculate migration routes, timing, and speed. We used a utilization distribution kernel to measure distributions during migration. Adult females tended to have a southbound migration route parallel and between those of young and adult males. Moreover, a greater number of young birds migrated south through California in comparison to adult females and adult males. Our results suggest that the migration of each age-sex category is separated by approximately two weeks with adult males migrating first, followed by adult females, and then the young of both sexes; yet migration speed was not statistically different among categories. Last, adult males were captured within a smaller geographic distribution, i.e., the area during any given week of migration, compared with adult females and young. We conclude that different age-sex categories of Rufous Hummingbirds use alternative routes and differ in migration phenology and distributions. Our results suggest that the age-sex categories could be affected differentially by habitat loss, phenological changes, and climates during migration. Considering such demographic migratory dynamics could improve conservation outcomes.
Introduction Bee conservation in the US is currently hindered by challenges associated with assessing the status and trends of a diverse group of >3000 species, many of which are rare, endemic to ...small areas, and/or exhibit high inter-annual variationin population size. Fundamental information about the distribution of most species across space and time, thus, is lacking yet urgently needed to assess population status, guide conservation plans, and prioritize actions among species and geographies. Methods Using wild bee data from two public data repositories representing the contiguous US, we evaluated the availability and sufficiency of data for use in species assessments of wild bees. We also examined the number of bee species recorded in each US state and the proportion of species with recent records (2012–2021). Results Although efforts to monitor bees continue to grow, there remains a massive paucity of data. Exceedingly few records (0.04%)reported both sampling protocol and effort, greatly limiting the usefulness of the data. Few species or locations have adequate publicly available data to support analyses of population status or trends, and fewer than half of species have sufficient data to delineate geographic range. Despite an exponential increase in data submissions since the 2000s, only 47% of species were reported within the last decade, which may be driven by how data are collected, reported, and shared, or may reflect troubling patterns of local or large-scale declines and extirpations. Discussion Based on our analysis, we provide recommendations to improve the quality and quantity of data that can be used to detect, understand, and respond to changes in wild bee populations.
Shrub-nesting bird species are infrequent inhabitants of urban habitats. Our study identifies their location within urban bird assemblages, quantifies their abundance in an urban ecosystem, and ...explores their association with vegetation variables. The study design consists of 103 point locations distributed among four types of urban habitat: medium-density residential sectors, low-density residential sectors, urban parks and natural parks. We focused on six shrub-nesting species: Gray Catbird (Dumetella carolinensis), Yellow Warbler (Setophaga petechia), Chipping Sparrow (Spizella passerine), Song Sparrow (Melospiza melodia), Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis), and Red-winged Blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus). Results from the PERMANOVA analysis suggest that the types of urban habitat are significantly different based on bird composition. Shrub-nesting species observed in Montreal were most abundant in natural parks, but some were frequently observed in residential areas. The presence of some shrub-nesting species was, depending on the type of urban habitat, associated with higher abundance of deciduous shrubs, clumps of shrubs or deciduous trees. This was not the case with all shrub-nesting species nor in all types of urban habitat.
As data about populations of indicator species become available, proactive strategies that improve representation of biological diversity within protected area networks should consider finer‐scaled ...evaluations, especially in regions identified as important through course‐scale analyses. We use density distribution models derived from a robust regional bird abundance dataset, coupled with habitat conservation plans, to evaluate a network of protected areas and to inform conservation and biodiversity planning in the greater Klamath Siskiyou Bioregion, an area recognized globally as a region of outstanding biological diversity. Our novel modeling approach allowed for comparisons of abundance of conservation focal species on federal vs. non‐federal lands, federal lands that are protected to maintain natural habitats vs. federal lands managed for multiple uses, and seven protected areas of interest. Our comparisons highlight conservation opportunities for suites of species associated with coniferous forests, oak woodlands, and grasslands. Specifically, we found that species associated with oak woodland and grassland habitats, both habitats of conservation concern, were not well represented in the Bioregion's existing protected areas. These species would benefit from expanding the regional protected area network to include their associated at‐risk habitats. In contrast, our results suggest that coniferous forests birds are well represented in the Bioregion's protected areas. We identify management opportunities specifically associated with the restoration of fire‐adapted ecosystems that would benefit coniferous forest focal species on both federally protected areas and other multiple‐use lands. Our analysis provides an example of how a finer‐scaled evaluation of a regional protected area network adds value to course‐scale evaluations of protected areas and biological diversity. Data and results from this research were used to inform science‐based expansion of the Bioregion's network of protected areas.
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