Motivated by recent discussions, both in private and in the literature, we use a Monte Carlo simulation of planetary systems to investigate sources of bias in determining the mass–radius distribution ...of exoplanets for the two primary techniques used to measure planetary masses – radial velocities (RVs) and transit timing variations (TTVs). We assert that mass measurements derived from these two methods are comparably reliable – as the physics underlying their respective signals is well understood. Nevertheless, their sensitivity to planet mass varies with the properties of the planets themselves. We find that for a given planet size, the RV method tends to find planets with higher mass while the sensitivity of TTVs is more uniform. This ‘sensitivity bias’ implies that a complete census of TTV systems is likely to yield a more robust estimate of the mass–radius distribution provided there are not important physical differences between planets near and far from mean-motion resonance. We discuss differences in the sensitivity of the two methods with orbital period and system architecture, which may compound the discrepancies between them (e.g. short-period planets detectable by RVs may be more dense due to atmospheric loss). We advocate for continued mass measurements using both approaches as a means both to measure the masses of more planets and to identify potential differences in planet structure that may result from their dynamical and environmental histories.
ABSTRACT We present a new transit timing catalog of 2599 Kepler Objects of Interest (KOIs), using the PDC-MAP long-cadence light curves that include the full 17 quarters of the mission ...(ftp://wise-ftp.tau.ac.il/pub/tauttv/TTV/ver_112). The goal is to produce an easy-to-use catalog that can stimulate further analyses of interesting systems. For 779 KOIs with high enough S/N, we derived the timing, duration, and depth of 69,914 transits. For 1820 KOIs with lower SNR, we derived only the timing of 225,273 transits. After removal of outlier timings, we derived various statistics for each KOI that were used to indicate significant variations. Including systems found by previous works, we have detected 260 KOIs that showed significant TTVs with long-term variations (>100 days), and another 14 KOIs with periodic modulations shorter than 100 days and small amplitudes. For five of those, the periodicity is probably due to the crossing of rotating stellar spots by the transiting planets.
Abstract
We present the occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZs) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar ...properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define
η
⊕
as the HZ occurrence of planets with radii between 0.5 and 1.5
R
⊕
orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 and 6300 K. We find that
η
⊕
for the conservative HZ is between
(errors reflect 68% credible intervals) and
planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between
and
planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates between using Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and using Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with 95% confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is ∼6 pc away and there are ∼4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun.
Saturated fatty acids (SFAs) of different chain lengths have unique metabolic and biological effects, and a small number of recent studies suggest that higher circulating concentrations of the ...very-long-chain SFAs (VLSFAs) arachidic acid (20:0), behenic acid (22:0), and lignoceric acid (24:0) are associated with a lower risk of diabetes. Confirmation of these findings in a large and diverse population is needed.
We investigated the associations of circulating VLSFAs 20:0, 22:0, and 24:0 with incident type 2 diabetes in prospective studies.
Twelve studies that are part of the Fatty Acids and Outcomes Research Consortium participated in the analysis. Using Cox or logistic regression within studies and an inverse-variance-weighted meta-analysis across studies, we examined the associations of VLSFAs 20:0, 22:0, and 24:0 with incident diabetes among 51,431 participants.
There were 14,276 cases of incident diabetes across participating studies. Higher circulating concentrations of 20:0, 22:0, and 24:0 were each associated with a lower risk of incident diabetes. Pooling across cohorts, the RR (95% CI) for incident diabetes comparing the 90th percentile to the 10th percentile was 0.78 (0.70, 0.87) for 20:0, 0.84 (0.77, 0.91) for 22:0, and 0.75 (0.69, 0.83) for 24:0 after adjustment for demographic, lifestyle, adiposity, and other health factors. Results were fully attenuated in exploratory models that adjusted for circulating 16:0 and triglycerides.
Results from this pooled analysis indicate that higher concentrations of circulating VLSFAs 20:0, 22:0, and 24:0 are each associated with a lower risk of diabetes.
IMPORTANCE: The role of ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids for primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) remains controversial. Most prior longitudinal studies evaluated self-reported ...consumption rather than biomarkers. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate biomarkers of seafood-derived eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA; 20:5ω-3), docosapentaenoic acid (DPA; 22:5ω-3), and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA; 22:6ω-3) and plant-derived α-linolenic acid (ALA; 18:3ω-3) for incident CHD. DATA SOURCES: A global consortium of 19 studies identified by November 2014. STUDY SELECTION: Available prospective (cohort, nested case-control) or retrospective studies with circulating or tissue ω-3 biomarkers and ascertained CHD. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Each study conducted standardized, individual-level analysis using harmonized models, exposures, outcomes, and covariates. Findings were centrally pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Heterogeneity was examined by age, sex, race, diabetes, statins, aspirin, ω-6 levels, and FADS desaturase genes. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Incident total CHD, fatal CHD, and nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI). RESULTS: The 19 studies comprised 16 countries, 45 637 unique individuals, and 7973 total CHD, 2781 fatal CHD, and 7157 nonfatal MI events, with ω-3 measures in total plasma, phospholipids, cholesterol esters, and adipose tissue. Median age at baseline was 59 years (range, 18-97 years), and 28 660 (62.8%) were male. In continuous (per 1-SD increase) multivariable-adjusted analyses, the ω-3 biomarkers ALA, DPA, and DHA were associated with a lower risk of fatal CHD, with relative risks (RRs) of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.84-0.98) for ALA, 0.90 (95% CI, 0.85-0.96) for DPA, and 0.90 (95% CI, 0.84-0.96) for DHA. Although DPA was associated with a lower risk of total CHD (RR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.90-0.99), ALA (RR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.95-1.05), EPA (RR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.87-1.02), and DHA (RR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.91-1.00) were not. Significant associations with nonfatal MI were not evident per 1 SD. Across quintiles, lower risk of nonfatal MI was evident with EPA (RR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.56-0.90) and ALA (RR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.78-0.97), and lower risk of fatal CHD was evident with DPA (RR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.65-0.90) and DHA (RR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.64-0.89). Associations appeared generally stronger in phospholipids and total plasma. Restricted cubic splines did not identify evidence of nonlinearity in dose responses. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: On the basis of available studies of free-living populations globally, biomarker concentrations of seafood and plant-derived ω-3 fatty acids are associated with a lower incidence of fatal CHD.
We report on the orbital architectures of Kepler systems having multiple-planet candidates identified in the analysis of data from the first six quarters of Kepler data and reported by Batalha et al. ...(2013). These data show 899 transiting planet candidates in 365 multiple-planet systems and provide a powerful means to study the statistical properties of planetary systems. Using a generic mass-radius relationship, we find that only two pairs of planets in these candidate systems (out of 761 pairs total) appear to be on Hill-unstable orbits, indicating ~96% of the candidate planetary systems are correctly interpreted as true systems. We find that planet pairs show little statistical preference to be near mean-motion resonances. We identify an asymmetry in the distribution of period ratios near first-order resonances (e.g., 2:1, 3:2), with an excess of planet pairs lying wide of resonance and relatively few lying narrow of resonance. Finally, based upon the transit duration ratios of adjacent planets in each system, we find that the interior planet tends to have a smaller transit impact parameter than the exterior planet does. This finding suggests that the mode of the mutual inclinations of planetary orbital planes is in the range 1degrees.0-2degrees.2, for the packed systems of small planets probed by these observations.
Using an updated collision model, we conduct a suite of high-resolution N-body integrations to probe the relationship between giant planet mass and terrestrial planet formation and system ...architecture. We vary the mass of the planets that reside at Jupiter's and Saturn's orbit and examine the effects on the interior terrestrial system.We find that massive giant planets are more likely to eject material from the outer edge of the terrestrial disc and produce terrestrial planets that are on smaller, more circular orbits. We do not find a strong correlation between exterior giant planet mass and the number of Earth analogues (analogous in mass and semi-major axis) produced in the system. These results allow us to make predictions on the nature of terrestrial planets orbiting distant Sun-like star systems that harbour giant planet companions on long orbits - systems that will be a priority for NASA's upcoming Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) mission.
ABSTRACT
We examine the effects that planetary encounters have on the moon systems of ejected gas giant planets. We conduct a suite of numerical simulations of planetary systems containing three ...Jupiter-mass planets (with the innermost planet at 3 au) up to the point where a planet is ejected from the system. The ejected planet has an initial system of 100 test-particle moons. We determine the survival probability of moons at different distances from their host planet, measure the final distribution of orbital elements, examine the stability of resonant configurations, and characterize the properties of moons that are stripped from the planets. We find that moons are likely to survive in orbits with semi-major axes out beyond 200 planetary radii (0.1 au in our case). The orbital inclinations and eccentricities of the surviving moons are broadly distributed and include nearly hyperbolic orbits and retrograde orbits. We find that a large fraction of moons in two-body and three-body mean-motion resonances also survive planetary ejection with the resonance intact. The moon–planet interactions, especially in the presence of mean-motion resonance, can keep the interior of the moons molten for billions of years via tidal flexing, as is seen in the moons of the gas giant planets in the solar system. Given the possibility that life may exist in the subsurface ocean of the Galilean satellite Europa, these results have implications for life on the moons of rogue planets – planets that drift through our Galaxy with no host star.
Through tidal dissipation in a slowly spinning host star, the orbits of many hot Jupiters may decay down to the Roche limit. We expect that the ensuing mass transfer will be stable in most cases. ...Using detailed numerical calculations, we find that this evolution is quite rapid, potentially leading to the complete removal of the gaseous envelope in a few gigayears, and leaving behind an exposed rocky core (a "hot super-Earth"). Final orbital periods are quite sensitive to the details of the planet's mass-radius relation and to the effects of irradiation and photo-evaporation, but could be as short as a few hours or as long as several days. Our scenario predicts the existence of planets with intermediate masses ("hot Neptunes") that should be found precisely at their Roche limit and in the process of losing mass through Roche lobe overflow. The observed excess of small single-planet candidate systems observed by Kepler may also be the result of this process. If so, the properties of their host stars should track those of the hot Jupiters. Moreover, the number of systems that produced hot Jupiters could be two to three times larger than one would infer from contemporary observations.
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