The use of social media during the COVID-19 pandemic has led to an "infodemic" of mis- and disinformation with potentially grave consequences. To explore means of counteracting disinformation, we ...analyzed tweets containing the hashtags #Scamdemic and #Plandemic.
Using a Twitter scraping tool called twint, we collected 419,269 English-language tweets that contained "#Scamdemic" or "#Plandemic" posted in 2020. Using the Twitter application-programming interface, we extracted the same tweets (by tweet ID) with additional user metadata. We explored descriptive statistics of tweets including their content and user profiles, analyzed sentiments and emotions, performed topic modeling, and determined tweet availability in both datasets.
After removal of retweets, replies, non-English tweets, or duplicate tweets, 40,081 users tweeted 227,067 times using our selected hashtags. The mean weekly sentiment was overall negative for both hashtags. One in five users who used these hashtags were suspended by Twitter by January 2021. Suspended accounts had an average of 610 followers and an average of 6.7 tweets per user, while active users had an average of 472 followers and an average of 5.4 tweets per user. The most frequent tweet topic was "Complaints against mandates introduced during the pandemic" (79,670 tweets), which included complaints against masks, social distancing, and closures.
While social media has democratized speech, it also permits users to disseminate potentially unverified or misleading information that endangers people's lives and public health interventions. Characterizing tweets and users that use hashtags associated with COVID-19 pandemic denial allowed us to understand the extent of misinformation. With the preponderance of inaccessible original tweets, we concluded that posters were in denial of the COVID-19 pandemic and sought to disperse related mis- or disinformation resulting in suspension.
Leveraging 227,067 tweets with the hashtags #scamdemic and #plandemic in 2020, we were able to elucidate important trends in public disinformation about the COVID-19 vaccine.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Abstract
Background
Twitter has been used to track trends and disseminate health information during viral epidemics. On January 21, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention activated its ...Emergency Operations Center and the World Health Organization released its first situation report about coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), sparking significant media attention. How Twitter content and sentiment evolved in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic has not been described.
Methods
We extracted tweets matching hashtags related to COVID-19 from January 14 to 28, 2020 using Twitter’s application programming interface. We measured themes and frequency of keywords related to infection prevention practices. We performed a sentiment analysis to identify the sentiment polarity and predominant emotions in tweets and conducted topic modeling to identify and explore discussion topics over time. We compared sentiment, emotion, and topics among the most popular tweets, defined by the number of retweets.
Results
We evaluated 126 049 tweets from 53 196 unique users. The hourly number of COVID-19-related tweets starkly increased from January 21, 2020 onward. Approximately half (49.5%) of all tweets expressed fear and approximately 30% expressed surprise. In the full cohort, the economic and political impact of COVID-19 was the most commonly discussed topic. When focusing on the most retweeted tweets, the incidence of fear decreased and topics focused on quarantine efforts, the outbreak and its transmission, as well as prevention.
Conclusions
Twitter is a rich medium that can be leveraged to understand public sentiment in real-time and potentially target individualized public health messages based on user interest and emotion.
Twitter can be used to identify the sentiment, emotion, and prominent topics discussed among the public during pandemics, allowing for large-scale, public health interventions with direct and targeted messaging.
Social distancing policies are key in curtailing severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spread, but their effectiveness is heavily contingent on public understanding and collective ...adherence. We studied public perception of social distancing through organic, large-scale discussion on Twitter.
Retrospective cross-sectional study.
Between March 27 and April 10, 2020, we retrieved English-only tweets matching two trending social distancing hashtags, #socialdistancing and #stayathome. We analyzed the tweets using natural language processing and machine-learning models, and we conducted a sentiment analysis to identify emotions and polarity. We evaluated the subjectivity of tweets and estimated the frequency of discussion of social distancing rules. We then identified clusters of discussion using topic modeling and associated sentiments.
We studied a sample of 574,903 tweets. For both hashtags, polarity was positive (mean, 0.148; SD, 0.290); only 15% of tweets had negative polarity. Tweets were more likely to be objective (median, 0.40; IQR, 0-0.6) with ~30% of tweets labeled as completely objective (labeled as 0 in range from 0 to 1). Approximately half of tweets (50.4%) primarily expressed joy and one-fifth expressed fear and surprise. Each correlated well with topic clusters identified by frequency including leisure and community support (ie, joy), concerns about food insecurity and quarantine effects (ie, fear), and unpredictability of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and its implications (ie, surprise).
Considering the positive sentiment, preponderance of objective tweets, and topics supporting coping mechanisms, we concluded that Twitter users generally supported social distancing in the early stages of their implementation.
Despite focus on preventing 30-day readmissions, early readmissions (within 7 days of discharge) may be more preventable than later readmissions (8-30 days). We assessed how well a previously ...validated 30-day EHR-based readmission prediction model predicts 7-day readmissions and compared differences in strength of predictors.
We conducted an observational study on adult hospitalizations from 6 diverse hospitals in North Texas using a 50-50 split-sample derivation and validation approach. We re-derived model coefficients for the same predictors as in the original 30-day model to optimize prediction of 7-day readmissions. We then compared the discrimination and calibration of the 7-day model to the 30-day model to assess model performance. To examine the changes in the point estimates between the two models, we evaluated the percent changes in coefficients.
Of 32,922 index hospitalizations among unique patients, 4.4% had a 7-day admission and 12.7% had a 30-day readmission. Our original 30-day model had modestly lower discrimination for predicting 7-day vs. any 30-day readmission (C-statistic of 0.66 vs. 0.69, p ≤ 0.001). Our re-derived 7-day model had similar discrimination (C-statistic of 0.66, p = 0.38), but improved calibration. For the re-derived 7-day model, discharge day factors were more predictive of early readmissions, while baseline characteristics were less predictive.
A previously validated 30-day readmission model can also be used as a stopgap to predict 7-day readmissions as model performance did not substantially change. However, strength of predictors differed between the 7-day and 30-day model; characteristics at discharge were more predictive of 7-day readmissions, while baseline characteristics were less predictive. Improvements in predicting early 7-day readmissions will likely require new risk factors proximal to day of discharge.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Iron-deficiency anemia (IDA) is a common health problem worldwide, and up to 10% of adult patients with incidental IDA may have gastrointestinal cancer. A diagnosis of IDA can be established through ...a combination of laboratory tests, but it is often underrecognized until a patient becomes symptomatic. Based on advances in machine learning, we hypothesized that we could reduce the time to diagnosis by developing an IDA prediction model. Our goal was to develop 3 neural networks by using retrospective longitudinal outpatient laboratory data to predict the risk of IDA 3 to 6 months before traditional diagnosis.
We analyzed retrospective outpatient electronic health record data between 2009 and 2020 from an academic medical center in northern Texas. We included laboratory features from 30,603 patients to develop 3 types of neural networks: artificial neural networks, long short-term memory cells, and gated recurrent units. The classifiers were trained using the Adam Optimizer across 200 random training-validation splits. We calculated accuracy, area under the receiving operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, and specificity in the testing split.
Although all models demonstrated comparable performance, the gated recurrent unit model outperformed the other 2, achieving an accuracy of 0.83, an area under the receiving operating characteristic curve of 0.89, a sensitivity of 0.75, and a specificity of 0.85 across 200 epochs.
Our results showcase the feasibility of employing deep learning techniques for early prediction of IDA in the outpatient setting based on sequences of laboratory data, offering a substantial lead time for clinical intervention.
AbstractObjectiveTo create and validate a simple and transferable machine learning model from electronic health record data to accurately predict clinical deterioration in patients with covid-19 ...across institutions, through use of a novel paradigm for model development and code sharing.DesignRetrospective cohort study.SettingOne US hospital during 2015-21 was used for model training and internal validation. External validation was conducted on patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 at 12 other US medical centers during 2020-21.Participants33 119 adults (≥18 years) admitted to hospital with respiratory distress or covid-19.Main outcome measuresAn ensemble of linear models was trained on the development cohort to predict a composite outcome of clinical deterioration within the first five days of hospital admission, defined as in-hospital mortality or any of three treatments indicating severe illness: mechanical ventilation, heated high flow nasal cannula, or intravenous vasopressors. The model was based on nine clinical and personal characteristic variables selected from 2686 variables available in the electronic health record. Internal and external validation performance was measured using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the expected calibration error—the difference between predicted risk and actual risk. Potential bed day savings were estimated by calculating how many bed days hospitals could save per patient if low risk patients identified by the model were discharged early.Results9291 covid-19 related hospital admissions at 13 medical centers were used for model validation, of which 1510 (16.3%) were related to the primary outcome. When the model was applied to the internal validation cohort, it achieved an AUROC of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.77 to 0.84) and an expected calibration error of 0.01 (95% confidence interval 0.00 to 0.02). Performance was consistent when validated in the 12 external medical centers (AUROC range 0.77-0.84), across subgroups of sex, age, race, and ethnicity (AUROC range 0.78-0.84), and across quarters (AUROC range 0.73-0.83). Using the model to triage low risk patients could potentially save up to 7.8 bed days per patient resulting from early discharge.ConclusionA model to predict clinical deterioration was developed rapidly in response to the covid-19 pandemic at a single hospital, was applied externally without the sharing of data, and performed well across multiple medical centers, patient subgroups, and time periods, showing its potential as a tool for use in optimizing healthcare resources.
Abstract
Objective
There is a need for a systematic method to implement the World Health Organization’s Clinical Progression Scale (WHO-CPS), an ordinal clinical severity score for coronavirus ...disease 2019 patients, to electronic health record (EHR) data. We discuss our process of developing guiding principles mapping EHR data to WHO-CPS scores across multiple institutions.
Materials and Methods
Using WHO-CPS as a guideline, we developed the technical blueprint to map EHR data to ordinal clinical severity scores. We applied our approach to data from 2 medical centers.
Results
Our method was able to classify clinical severity for 100% of patient days for 2756 patient encounters across 2 institutions.
Discussion
Implementing new clinical scales can be challenging; strong understanding of health system data architecture was integral to meet the clinical intentions of the WHO-CPS.
Conclusion
We describe a detailed blueprint for how to apply the WHO-CPS scale to patient data from the EHR.
Despite major differences in their health care systems, medical crowdfunding is increasingly used to finance personal health care costs in Canada, the UK, and the US. However, little is known about ...the campaigns designed to raise monetary donations for medical expenses, the individuals who turn to crowdfunding, and their fundraising intent.
To examine the demographic characteristics of medical crowdfunding beneficiaries, campaign characteristics, and their association with funding success in Canada, the UK, and the US.
This cross-sectional study extracted and manually reviewed data from GoFundMe campaigns discoverable between February 2018 and March 2019. All available campaigns on each country domain's GoFundMe medical discovery webpage that benefitted a unique patient(s) were included from Canada, the UK, and the US. Data analysis was performed from March to December 2019.
Campaign and beneficiary characteristics.
Log-transformed amount raised in US dollars.
This study examined 3396 campaigns including 1091 in Canada, 1082 in the UK, and 1223 in the US. Campaigns in the US (median IQR, $38 204 $31 200 to $52 123) raised more funds than campaigns in Canada ($12 662 $9377 to $19 251) and the UK ($6285 $4028 to $12 348). In the overall cohort per campaign, Black individuals raised 11.5% less (95% CI, -19.0% to -3.2%; P = .006) than non-Black individuals, and male individuals raised 5.9% more (95% CI, 2.2% to 9.7%; P = .002) than female individuals. Female (39.4% of campaigns vs 50.8% of US population; difference, 11.3%; 95% CI, 8.6% to 14.1%; P < .001) and Black (5.3% of campaigns vs 13.4% of US population; difference, 8.1%; 95% CI, 6.8% to 9.3%; P < .001) beneficiaries were underrepresented among US campaigns. Campaigns primarily for routine treatment expenses were approximately 3 times more common in the US (77.9% 272 of 349 campaigns) than in Canada (21.9% 55 of 251 campaigns; difference, 56.0%; 95% CI, 49.3-62.7%; P < .001) or the UK (26.6% 127 of 478 campaigns; difference, 51.4%; 95% CI, 45.5%-57.3%; P < .001). However, campaigns for routine care were less successful overall. Approved, inaccessible care and experimental care raised 35.7% (95% CI, 25.6% to 46.7%; P < .001) and 20.9% (95% CI, 13.3% to 29.1%; P < .001), respectively, more per campaign than routine care. Campaigns primarily for alternative treatment expenses (16.1% 174 of 1079 campaigns) were nearly 4-fold more common for cancer (23.5% 144 of 614 campaigns) vs noncancer (6.5% 30 of 465 campaigns) diagnoses.
Important differences were observed in the reasons individuals turn to medical crowdfunding in the 3 countries examined that suggest racial and gender disparities in fundraising success. More work is needed to understand the underpinnings of these findings and their implications on health care provision in the countries examined.
•Sentiment about COVID-19 vaccination became more positive over time with decreasing fear and increasing trust.•Persistence of fear and negative sentiment for certain topics and demographics raises ...concerns for vaccine hesitancy and disinformation.•Social media provides opportunity for understanding and enaging with public perception through analysis of wide-scale, real-time discussion.
With the global continuation of the COVID-19 pandemic, the large-scale administration of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is crucial to achieve herd immunity and curtail further spread of the virus, but success is contingent on public understanding and vaccine uptake. We aim to understand public perception about vaccines for COVID-19 through the wide-scale, organic discussion on Twitter.
This cross-sectional observational study included Twitter posts matching the search criteria ((‘covid*’ OR ‘coronavirus’) AND ‘vaccine’) posted during vaccine development from February 1st through December 11th, 2020. These COVID-19 vaccine related posts were analyzed with topic modeling, sentiment and emotion analysis, and demographic inference of users to provide insight into the evolution of public attitudes throughout the study period.
We evaluated 2,287,344 English tweets from 948,666 user accounts. Individuals represented 87.9 % (n = 834,224) of user accounts. Of individuals, men (n = 560,824) outnumbered women (n = 273,400) by 2:1 and 39.5 % (n = 329,776) of individuals were ≥40 years old. Daily mean sentiment fluctuated congruent with news events, but overall trended positively. Trust, anticipation, and fear were the three most predominant emotions; while fear was the most predominant emotion early in the study period, trust outpaced fear from April 2020 onward. Fear was more prevalent in tweets by individuals (26.3 % vs. organizations 19.4 %; p < 0.001), specifically among women (28.4 % vs. males 25.4 %; p < 0.001). Multiple topics had a monthly trend towards more positive sentiment. Tweets comparing COVID-19 to the influenza vaccine had strongly negative early sentiment but improved over time.
This study successfully explores sentiment, emotion, topics, and user demographics to elucidate important trends in public perception about COVID-19 vaccines. While public perception trended positively over the study period, some trends, especially within certain topic and demographic clusters, are concerning for COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. These insights can provide targets for educational interventions and opportunity for continued real-time monitoring.
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