COVID-19 caseloads in England have passed through a first peak, and at the time of this analysis appeared to be gradually increasing, potentially signalling the emergence of a second wave. To ensure ...continued response to the epidemic is most effective, it is imperative to better understand both retrospectively and prospectively the geographical evolution of COVID-19 caseloads and deaths at small-area resolution, identify localised areas in space-time at significantly higher risk, quantify the impact of changes in localised population mobility (or movement) on caseloads, identify localised risk factors for increased mortality and project the likely course of the epidemic at high spatial resolution in coming weeks. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical space-time SEIR model to assess the spatiotemporal variability of COVID-19 caseloads (transmission) and deaths at small-area scale in England Middle Layer Super Output Area (MSOA), 6791 units and by week (using observed data from week 5 to 34 of 2020), including key determinants, the modelled transmission dynamics and spatial-temporal random effects. We also estimate the number of cases and deaths at small-area resolution with uncertainty projected forward in time by MSOA (up to week 51 of 2020), the impact mobility reductions (and subsequent easing) have had on COVID-19 caseloads and quantify the impact of key socio-demographic risk factors on COVID-19 related mortality risk by MSOA. Reductions in population mobility during the course of the first lockdown had a significant impact on the reduction of COVID-19 caseloads across England, however local authorities have had a varied rate of reduction in population movement which our model suggest has substantially impacted the geographic heterogeneity in caseloads at small-area scale. The steady gain in population mobility, observed from late April, appears to have contributed to a slowdown in caseload reductions towards late June and subsequent start of the second wave. MSOA with higher proportions of elderly (70+ years of age) and elderly living in deprivation, both with very distinct geographic distributions, have a significantly elevated COVID-19 mortality rates. While non-pharmaceutical interventions (that is, reductions in population mobility and social distancing) had a profound impact on the trajectory of the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in England, increased population mobility appears to have significantly contributed to the second wave. A number of contiguous small-areas appear to be at a significant elevated risk of high COVID-19 transmission, many of which are also at increased risk for higher mortality rates. A geographically staggered re-introduction of intensified social distancing measures is advised and limited cross MSOA movement if the magnitude and geographic extent of the second wave is to be reduced.
Conceptualization: B. Tlou Data curation: F. Tanser Formal analysis: B. Tlou Funding acquisition: F. Tanser Methodology: B. Tlou Resources: F. Tanser Supervision: B. Sartorius, F. Tanser ...Writing–original draft: B. Tlou After publication of this article 1, the corresponding author notified the journal office that there are errors in the data analysis underlying their paper. While a “complete” cohort approach for risk factor analysis may not be a major limitation, in terms of performing a full due diligence, the corresponding author would like to clarify that he should have included details of the full cohort and description of the missing data in the original paper. Trends in early childhood mortality rates in deaths per 1,000-person years among live born children. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0306379.t002 Fig 2 needs to be updated to reflect the change in the y-axis values, rather than any changes to trend pattern over the period.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Highlights • Estimates the underestimation of liver cancer incidence and cost in regions with poor data quality. • Confirmation of known determinants of liver cancer using the novel proposed analytic ...framework. • Reaffirms spatial heterogeneity of liver cancer globally and by gender and further identifies hotspots of liver cancer incidence.
Despite global progress, there remains a disproportionate burden of under-five year old deaths in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where four out of five child deaths occur. Substantial progress has been ...made in improving sanitation, controlling communicable diseases and the spread of HIV in most parts of the world. However, significant strides to address some key risk factors related to under-five mortality are still needed in rural SSA if they are to attain relevant 2030 SDG targets. The aim of this study is to investigate the risk factors for under-five mortality in an HIV hyper-endemic area of rural South Africa, from 2000-2014. Some of the key risk factors investigated are, for example: household wealth, source of drinking water, distance to the national road and birth order.
We conducted a statistical analysis of 759 births from a population-based cohort in rural KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, from 2000 to 2014. A Cox Proportional Hazards model was used to identify the risk factors and key socio-demographic correlates of under-five mortality leveraging the longitudinal structure of the population cohort.
Child mortality rates declined by 80 per cent from 2000 to 2014, from >140 per 1,000 persons in years 2001-2003 to 20 per 1,000 persons in the year 2014. The highest under-five mortality rate was recorded in 2002/2003, which decreased following the start of antiretroviral therapy rollout in 2003/4. The results indicated that under-five and infant mortality are significantly associated with a low wealth index of 1.49 (1.007-2.48) for under-fives and 3.03 (1.72-5.34) for infants. Children and infants with a lower wealth index had a significantly increased risk of mortality as compared to those with a high wealth index. Other significant factors included: source of household drinking water (borehole) 3.03 (1.72-5.34) for under-fives and 2.98 (1.62-5.49) for infants; having an HIV positive mother 4.22 (2.68-6.65) for under-fives and 3.26 (1.93-5.51) for infants, and period of death 9.13 (5.70-14.6) for under-fives and 1.28 (0.75-2.20) for infants. Wealth index had the largest population attributable fraction of 25.4 per cent.
The research findings show a substantial overall reduction in under-five mortality since 2003. Unsafe household water sources and having an HIV-positive mother were associated with an increased risk of under-five mortality in this rural setting. The significant risk factors identified align well with the SDG 2030 targets for reducing child mortality, which include improved nutrition, sanitation, hygiene and reduced HIV infections. Current trajectories suggest that there is some hope for meeting the 2030 SGD targets in rural South Africa and the region if the identified significant risk factors are adequately addressed.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
International organs such as, the African Union and the South African Government view maternal health as a dominant health prerogative. Even though most countries are making progress, maternal ...mortality in South Africa (SA) significantly increased between 1990 and 2015, and prevented the country from achieving Millennium Development Goal 5. Elucidating the space-time patterns and risk factors of maternal mortality in a rural South African population could help target limited resources and policy guidelines to high-risk areas for the greatest impact, as more generalized interventions are costly and often less effective.
Population-based mortality data from 2000 to 2014 for women aged 15-49 years from the Africa Centre Demographic Information System located in the Umkhanyakude district of KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa were analysed. Our outcome was classified into two definitions: Maternal mortality; the death of a woman while pregnant or within 42 days of cessation of pregnancy, regardless of the duration and site of the pregnancy, from any cause related to or exacerbated by the pregnancy or its management but not from unexpected or incidental causes; and 'Mother death'; death of a mother whilst child is less than 5 years of age. Both the Kulldorff and Tango spatial scan statistics for regular and irregular shaped cluster detection respectively were used to identify clusters of maternal mortality events in both space and time.
The overall maternal mortality ratio was 650 per 100,000 live births, and 1204 mothers died while their child was less than or equal to 5 years of age, of a mortality rate of 370 per 100,000 children. Maternal mortality declined over the study period from approximately 600 per 100,000 live births in 2000 to 400 per 100,000 live births in 2014. There was no strong evidence of spatial clustering for maternal mortality in this rural population. However, the study identified a significant spatial cluster of mother deaths in childhood (p = 0.022) in a peri-urban community near the national road. Based on our multivariable logistic regression model, HIV positive status (Adjusted odds ratio aOR = 2.5, CI 95%: 1.5-4.2; primary education or less (aOR = 1.97, CI 95%: 1.04-3.74) and parity (aOR = 1.42, CI 95%: 1.24-1.63) were significant predictors of maternal mortality.
There has been an overall decrease in maternal and mother death between 2000 and 2014. The identification of a clear cluster of mother deaths shows the possibility of targeting intervention programs in vulnerable communities, as population-wide interventions may be ineffective and too costly to implement.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The World Health Organization (WHO) called for new clinical diagnostic for settings with limited access to laboratory services. Access to diagnostic testing may not be uniform in rural settings, ...which may result in poor access to essential healthcare services. The aim of this study is to determine the availability, current usage, and need for point-of-care (POC) diagnostic tests among rural primary healthcare (PHC) clinics in South Africa's KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province.
We used the KZN's Department of Health (DoH) clinic classification to identify the 232 rural PHC clinics in KZN, South Africa. We then randomly sampled 100 of 232 rural PHC clinics. Selected health clinics were surveyed between April to August 2015 to obtain clinic-level data for health-worker volume and to determine the accessibility, availability, usage and need for POC tests. Professional healthcare workers responsible for POC testing at each clinic were interviewed to assess the awareness of POC testing. Data were survey weighted and analysed using Stata 13.
Among 100 rural clinics, the average number of patients seen per week was 2865 ± 2231 (range 374-11,731). The average number of POC tests available and in use was 6.3 (CI: 6.2-6.5) out of a potential of 51 tests. The following POC tests were universally available in all rural clinics: urine total protein, urine leukocytes, urine nitrate, urine pregnancy, HIV antibody and blood glucose test. The average number of desired POC diagnostic tests reported by the clinical staff was estimated at 15 (CI: 13-17) per clinic. The most requested POC tests reported were serum creatinine (37%), CD4 count (37%), cholesterol (32%), tuberculosis (31%), and HIV viral load (23%).
Several POC tests are widely available and in use at rural PHC clinics in South Africa's KZN province. However, healthcare workers have requested additional POC tests to improve detection and management of priority disease conditions.
Clinical Trials.gov Identifier: NCT02692274.
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Dostopno za:
CEKLJ, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
A wide range of studies has investigated the diagnostic proficiency of extracellular microRNAs (miRNAs) in hepatocellular cancer (HCC). HCC is expected to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), due to ...endemic levels of viral infection (HBV/HIV), ageing and changing lifestyles. This unique aetiological background provides an opportunity for investigating potentially novel circulating miRNAs as biomarkers for HCC in a prospective study in South Africa.
This study will recruit HCC patients from two South African cancer hospitals, situated in Durban and Pietermaritzburg in the province of KwaZulu-Natal. These cases will include both HBV mono-infected and HBV/HIV co-infected HCC cases. The control group will consist of two (2) age and sex-matched healthy population controls per HCC case randomly selected from a Durban based laboratory. The controls will exclude patients if they have any evidence of chronic liver disease. A standardised reporting approach will be adopted to detect, quantify and normalize the level of circulating miRNAs in the blood sera of HCC cases and their controls. Reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) will be employed to quantity extracellular miRNAs. Differences in concentration of relevant miRNA by case/control status will be assessed using the Wilcoxon rank-sum (Mann-Whitney U) test. Adjustment for multiple testing (Bonferroni correction), receiver operating curves (ROC) and optimal breakpoint analyses will be employed to identify potential thresholds for the differentiation of miRNA levels of HCC cases and their controls.
Although there is a growing base of literature regarding the role of circulating miRNAs as biomarkers, this promising field remains a 'work in progress'. The aetiology of HBV infection in HCC is well understood, as well as it's role in miRNA deregulation, however, the mediating role of HIV infection is unknown. HCC incidence in SSA, including South Africa, is expected to increase significantly in the next decade. A combination of factors, therefore, offers a unique opportunity to identify candidate circulating miRNAs as potential biomarkers for HBV/HIV infected HCC.
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Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
There is a global epidemic of overweight and obesity; however, this rate of increase is even greater in some low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). South Africa (SA) is undergoing rapid ...socioeconomic and demographic changes that have triggered a rapid nutrition transition. The paper focuses on the recent rate of change of body mass index (BMI) among children, adolescents and young adults, further stratified by key sociodemographic factors.
We analysed mean BMI of 28 247 individuals (including children) from 7301 households by age and year, from anthropometric data from four national cross-sectional (repeated panel) surveys using non-linear fitted curves and associated 95% confidence intervals.
From 2008 to 2015, there was rapid rise in mean BMI in the 6-25 age band, with the highest risk (3-4+ BMI unit increase) among children aged 8-10 years. The increase was largely among females in urban areas and of middle-high socioeconomic standing. Prominent gains were also observed in certain rural areas, with extensive geographical heterogeneity across the country.
We have demonstrated a major deviation from the current understanding of patterns of BMI increase, with a rate of increase substantially greater in the developing world context compared with the global pattern. This population-wide effect will have major consequences for national development as the epidemic of related non-communicable disease unfolds, and will overtax the national health care budget. Our refined understanding highlights that risks are further compounded for certain groups/places, and emphasizes that urgent geographical and population-targeted interventions are necessary. These interventions could include a sugar tax, clearer food labelling, revised school feeding programmes and mandatory bans on unhealthy food marketing to children.The scenario unfolding in South Africa will likely be followed in other LMICs.
In low‐resource settings, there is a need to develop models that can address contributions of household and outdoor sources to population exposures. The aim of the study was to model indoor PM2.5 ...using household characteristics, activities, and outdoor sources. Households belonging to participants in the Mother and Child in the Environment (MACE) birth cohort, in Durban, South Africa, were randomly selected. A structured walk‐through identified variables likely to generate PM2.5. MiniVol samplers were used to monitor PM2.5 for a period of 24 hours, followed by a post‐activity questionnaire. Factor analysis was used as a variable reduction tool. Levels of PM2.5 in the south were higher than in the north of the city (P < .05); crowding and dwelling type, household emissions (incense, candles, cooking), and household smoking practices were factors associated with an increase in PM2.5 levels (P < .05), while room magnitude and natural ventilation factors were associated with a decrease in the PM2.5 levels (P < .05). A reasonably robust PM2.5 predictive model was obtained with model R2 of 50%. Recognizing the challenges in characterizing exposure in environmental epidemiological studies, particularly in resource‐constrained settings, modeling provides an opportunity to reasonably estimate indoor pollutant levels in unmeasured homes.
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