By introducing a novel risk to human interaction, COVID-19 may have galvanized interest in uses of artificial intelligence (AI). But was the pandemic a large enough catalyst to change public ...attitudes about the costs and benefits of autonomous systems whose operations increasingly rely on AI? To answer this question, we use a preregistered research design that exploits variation across the 2018 and 2020 waves of the CCES/CES, a nationally representative survey of adults in the United States. We compare support for autonomous cars, autonomous surgeries, weapons, and cyber defense pre- and post-the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that, despite the incentives created by COVID-19, the pandemic did not increase support for most of these technologies, except in the case of autonomous surgery among those who know someone who died of COVID-19. The results hold even when controlling for a variety of relevant political and demographic factors. The pandemic did little to push potential autonomous vehicle users to support adoption. Further, American concerns about autonomous weapons, including cyber defense, remain sticky and perhaps exacerbated over the last two years. These findings suggest that the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and the adoption of many of these systems is far more nuanced and complex than headlines may suggest.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
2.
Wargaming for International Relations research Lin-Greenberg, Erik; Pauly, Reid B.C.; Schneider, Jacquelyn G.
European journal of international relations,
03/2022, Letnik:
28, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Political scientists are increasingly integrating wargames into their research. Either by fielding original games or by leveraging archival wargame materials, researchers can study rare events or ...topics where evidence is difficult to observe. However, scholars have little guidance on how to apply this novel methodological approach to political science research. This article evaluates how political scientists can use wargames as a method of scholarly inquiry and sets out to establish a research agenda for wargaming in International Relations. We first differentiate wargames from other methodological approaches and highlight their ecological validity. We then chart out how researchers can build and run their own games or draw from archival wargames for theory development and testing. In doing so, we explain how researchers can navigate issues of recruitment, bias, validity, and generalizability when using wargames for research, and identify ways to evaluate the potential benefits and pitfalls of wargames as a tool of inquiry. We argue that wargames offer unique opportunities for political scientists to study decision-making processes both in and beyond the International Relations subfield.
The Information Revolution, or the rise in computing power, allowed states to leverage digital capabilities to exert conventional military dominance. But does it also create vulnerabilities that lead ...to war? In this piece, I examine the relationship between military revolutions and conflict initiation and identify a capability/vulnerability paradox that suggests the degree of capability dependence created by a military revolution combined with the ability of adversaries to exploit vulnerabilities creates potential pockets of dangerous instability. These indicators suggest that greater centralisation and data dependencies could move the Information Revolution towards incentives for instability.
Schneider discusses the evolution of US cyber strategy and the origin of its inherent contradiction, or the two-threshold problem. She then introduce the concept of no-first-use (NFU) and detail what ...cyber NFU would look like in practice. Next, she explores whether the arguments against a US nuclear NFU policy hold up in cyberspace. Finally, she discusses how the US could pair this restraint with status quo cyber operations to solve the two-threshold problem that plagues US cyber strategy.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, ODKLJ, PILJ, PNG, PRFLJ, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Abstract
Despite the growing literature on cyber security, most studies have sidestepped important questions of how conflict escalates in the cyber domain. To better understand this dynamic, we ...advance two main theoretical pathways of escalation, one in which actors respond with increasing intensity based on the effect of an attack, irrespective of how it is conducted (through cyber, conventional, or nuclear) and another in which the means of attack determines the actor’s willingness to escalate. We then test those effects- and means-based pathways with an original experiment that probes support for escalation, focusing on the American public, a key actor in debates about nuclear escalation and deterrence. Our study suggests that cyberattacks create a threshold that restrains the escalation of conflict. Americans are less likely to support retaliation with force when the scenario involves a cyberattack even when they perceive the magnitude of attacks across domains to be comparable. Our findings provide support for cyber strategies based on assumptions of cyber thresholds, while also casting doubt on the credibility of cyber deterrence by punishment. More broadly, our research suggests effects-based theories of escalation may not help understand the impact of emerging technologies on strategic stability.
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