Audience measures serve as the basis on which billions of dollars of television advertising are purchased each year. However, these measures often fall short of providing marketers and media planners ...with information about the size of the audience that has the opportunity to see advertisements during commercial breaks. Although program audience measures remain relevant for product placement, the size of the gap between the audience potentially exposed to programming and the audience exposed to commercial breaks has implications for advertisers and networks, affecting decisions such as program selection and ad pricing. The authors use a full television season of live tuning data to study variation across programs in the size of the program audience and the size of the gap between the potential program audiences and the potential commercial audiences, which is found to exceed 20% of the program audience in some cases. Across program genres, the authors find that dramas have increased program popularity and reduced ad avoidance, whereas reality television experiences increased ad avoidance. The analysis reveals the importance of incorporating show-specific random effects because their omission can result in spurious attribution of differences in ad avoidance and program popularity to genre. The authors discuss the implications for networks and advertisers.
This paper posits a new framework to model the trial of and repeat purchasing of a new product. While much research has examined underlying shifts in consumer purchasing patterns, the typical ...assumption has been that the underlying purchasing process remains the same although the purchasing rate may change over time. Motivated by Fader, Hardie, and Huang's development of a dynamic changepoint model Fader, P. S., Hardie, B. G. S., & Huang, C. -Y. (2004). A Dynamic Changepoint Model for New Product Sales Forecasting.
Marketing Science, 23 (1), 50–65, we consider an
evolving process as consumers gain more experience with a new product.
Our framework assumes that consumers progress through two purchasing states, becoming more regular in their inter-purchase times as they gain experience with the product through repeat purchases. More specifically, they move from an initial state of exponential purchasing to a “steady state” that is characterized by a more regular Erlang-2 timing distribution. The proposed model is very flexible and nests a number of existing models, enabling it to explain a wide range of observed behavioral patterns. We apply our evolving process model to the same datasets used by Fader, Hardie, and Huang Fader, P. S., Hardie, B. G. S., & Huang, C. -Y. (2004). A Dynamic Changepoint Model for New Product Sales Forecasting.
Marketing Science, 23 (1), 50–65 and compare our results to a number of competing models. We find empirical evidence to support the use of a two-state model, since it yields relevant insights as well as improved empirical performance. We discuss the implications as they relate to forecasting new product sales.
This research presents a feature-based statistical model and subsequently explores the degree to which similarity perceptions between two advertisements can be decomposed and explained by a ..."weighted-and-summed" distance measure, computed on the advertisements' executional elements, after controlling for familiarity and viewers' attitudinal responses toward the advertisements. Furthermore, the authors obtain empirical findings in two major areas: First, variation in similarity ratings can be explained by the advertisements' features, a finding of potential importance for advertisement construction. Second, some, but not all, executional elements that have been shown (in the literature) to drive recall and persuasion are effective at driving perceptions of similarity. This is of practical importance because managers want their advertisements not only to be liked and remembered but also (possibly) to be perceived as similar (or dissimilar) to those for other products. In particular, an understanding of which items drive which constructs (recall and persuasion, or similarity) can contribute to a more effective overall marketing strategy.
Outstanding IJRM Area Editors and Reviewers Schweidel, David; Sorescu, Alina
International journal of research in marketing,
June 2022, 2022-06-00, Letnik:
39, Številka:
2
Journal Article
Service churn and retention rates remain central as constructs in marketing activities, such as valuation of service subscribers and resource allocation. Although extant approaches have been proposed ...to relate service churn to external factors, such as reported satisfaction, marketing-mix activities, and so on, managers often face situations in which the only information available is the duration for which subscribers have had service. In such cases, can they forecast service churn and understand the contributing factors, which may allow for subsequent intervention? The authors propose a framework to examine factors that may underlie service retention in a contractual setting. Specifically, they use a model of retention that accounts for (1) duration dependence, (2) promotional effects, (3) subscriber heterogeneity, (4) cross-cohort effects, and (5) calendar-time effects (e.g., seasonally). Then, they apply the framework to subscription databases of seven services offered by a telecommunications provider, mirroring the format commonly used to forecast future service churn (and to make managerial decisions). Across all seven services, the inclusion of promotional effects always improves the forecast accuracy of retention behavior, whereas including cross-cohort effects does not significantly improve it. In five of the services, customer heterogeneity, calendar-time effects, and duration dependence also contribute to improved forecasts. The authors use these results to understand how the expected value of a subscription differs across model specifications. They find considerable variation across model specifications, indicating that model misspecification can affect resource allocation decisions and other marketing efforts that are important to a firm.
Advertisements in DVR Time Kent, Bob; Mosley, Buffy N.; Schweidel, David A.
Journal of advertising research,
03/2019, Letnik:
59, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Time-shifted television can time-shift advertising. This study explores the frequency and timing of digital video recorder (DVR) advertising views in a sample of 2015–2016 drama, reality, and sports ...programs. Although the majority of recorded advertisements are "zipped" (fast-forwarded), some programs have many DVR viewers and delayed normal-speed advertisement exposures. The number and shelf life of recorded advertisement views vary by genre. DVRs accounted for more than 25 percent of all advertisement views from dramas (15 percent day-shifted, 5 percent shifted by more than three days). Time-sensitive advertisements might appear in sport or reality programs with fewer delayed views.
In the offline world, individuals who are extremely dissatisfied with a product are more likely to engage in word-of-mouth activities. However, across several studies, researchers have observed that ...overwhelmingly positive product ratings are being posted online. An analysis of 3,600 product ratings posted by 2,400 individual raters contributes new insights into why and how people engage in posting product evaluations. Individuals were more likely to submit ratings when they were very satisfied or not satisfied. Virtually all individuals exhibited a preference for posting in more positive ratings environments. The study results show that the composition of the customer base can exert substantial influence on posted online opinions. Due to selection bias and adjustment effects over time, the content posted may not necessarily reflect the customer base's overall opinion of the product. Therefore, marketers and consumers alike must exercise caution in drawing inferences from posted product ratings and reviews.
Online consumer reviews are a convenient, valuable pool of information for potential buyers as well as for marketers. But how reliable is this information? A closer look at the motives behind posted ...product reviews shows that online opinions should indeed be interpreted with care. The study results reveal that the composition of the customer base can exert a substantial influence on the posted online opinion. Due to selection bias and adjustment effects over time, the content posted may not necessarily reflect the customer base’s overall opinion of the product. Individuals were more likely to submit ratings when they were either very satisfied or not satisfied. In addition, consumers were more likely to post an opinion when the ratings already posted were more positive. Highly engaged consumers who frequently post their opinions tend to be more negative than less-engaged individuals. Even though decision-makers can gain valuable insights from the analysis of this pool of information, they should not rely on this source exclusively.
A major component of many advertising strategies is to position a product in the minds of the consumer in comparison with the competition. To this end, using a feature-based Bayesian statistical ...model and empirical exploration, the authors assess the degree to which similarity perceptions between two advertisements can be decomposed and explained by a "weighted-and-summed" distance measure, computed on the advertisements' executional elements, after controlling for familiarity and viewers' attitudinal responses toward the advertisements. That is, to what degree can firms, or ad agencies, "control" how similarly their advertisements are perceived compared with others by changing the "physical and measurable" components (e.g., number of children) in the advertisement? The authors obtain empirical findings in two major areas. First, variation in similarity ratings can be explained by the advertisements' features, a finding of potential importance for advertisement construction. Second, some, but not all, executional elements that have been shown in prior literature to drive recall and persuasion are effective at driving perceptions of similarity.
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