The health co-benefits of CO
mitigation can provide a strong incentive for climate policy through reductions in air pollutant emissions that occur when targeting shared sources. However, reducing air ...pollutant emissions may also have an important co-harm, as the aerosols they form produce net cooling overall. Nevertheless, aerosol impacts have not been fully incorporated into cost-benefit modeling that estimates how much the world should optimally mitigate. Here we find that when both co-benefits and co-harms are taken fully into account, optimal climate policy results in immediate net benefits globally, overturning previous findings from cost-benefit models that omit these effects. The global health benefits from climate policy could reach trillions of dollars annually, but will importantly depend on the air quality policies that nations adopt independently of climate change. Depending on how society values better health, economically optimal levels of mitigation may be consistent with a target of 2 °C or lower.
There is an extensive literature describing temperature-mortality associations in developed regions, but research from developing countries, and Africa in particular, is limited.
We conducted a ...time-series analysis using daily temperature data and a national dataset of all 8.8 million recorded deaths in South Africa between 1997 and 2013. Mortality and temperature data were linked at the district municipality level and relationships were estimated with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and pooled in a multivariate meta-analysis.
We found an association between daily maximum temperature and mortality. The relative risk for all-age all-cause mortality on very cold and hot days (1st and 99th percentile of the temperature distribution) was 1.14 (1.10,1.17) and 1.06 (1.03,1.09), respectively, when compared to the minimum mortality temperature. This “U” shaped relationship was evident for every age and cause group investigated, except among 25–44 year olds. The strongest associations were in the youngest (< 5) and oldest (> 64) age groups and for cardiorespiratory causes. Heat effects occurred immediately after exposure but diminished quickly whereas cold effects were delayed but persistent. Overall, 3.4% of deaths (~ 290,000) in South Africa were attributable to non-optimum temperatures over the study period. We also present results for the 52 district municipalities individually.
An assessment of the largest-ever dataset for analyzing temperature-mortality associations in (South) Africa indicates mortality burdens associated with cold and heat, and identifies the young and elderly as particularly vulnerable.
•Country-wide epidemiology study of temperature-mortality association in S. Africa.•Strongest associations were in children/elderly and from cardiorespiratory causes.•Total attributable mortality was 3.4%, mostly from cold (3.0%) rather than heat (0.4%).•Attributable mortality of 3.4% is on the low end of what is reported in other areas.•Results can help estimate future burdens from climate change and inform adaptation.
The novel human coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has claimed more than 600,000 lives worldwide, causing tremendous public health, social, and economic damages. Although the risk factors ...of COVID-19 are still under investigation, environmental factors, such as urban air pollution, may play an important role in increasing population susceptibility to COVID-19 pathogenesis.
We conducted a cross-sectional nationwide study using zero-inflated negative binomial models to estimate the association between long-term (2010–2016) county-level exposures to NO2, PM2.5, and O3 and county-level COVID-19 case-fatality and mortality rates in the United States. We used both single- and multi-pollutant models and controlled for spatial trends and a comprehensive set of potential confounders, including state-level test positive rate, county-level health care capacity, phase of epidemic, population mobility, population density, sociodemographics, socioeconomic status, race and ethnicity, behavioral risk factors, and meteorology.
From January 22, 2020, to July 17, 2020, 3,659,828 COVID-19 cases and 138,552 deaths were reported in 3,076 US counties, with an overall observed case-fatality rate of 3.8%. County-level average NO2 concentrations were positively associated with both COVID-19 case-fatality rate and mortality rate in single-, bi-, and tri-pollutant models. When adjusted for co-pollutants, per interquartile-range (IQR) increase in NO2 (4.6 ppb), COVID-19 case-fatality rate and mortality rate were associated with an increase of 11.3% (95% CI 4.9%–18.2%) and 16.2% (95% CI 8.7%–24.0%), respectively. We did not observe significant associations between COVID-19 case-fatality rate and long-term exposure to PM2.5 or O3, although per IQR increase in PM2.5 (2.6 μg/m3) was marginally associated, with a 14.9% (95% CI 0.0%–31.9%) increase in COVID-19 mortality rate when adjusted for co-pollutants.
Long-term exposure to NO2, which largely arises from urban combustion sources such as traffic, may enhance susceptibility to severe COVID-19 outcomes, independent of long-term PM2.5 and O3 exposure. The results support targeted public health actions to protect residents from COVID-19 in heavily polluted regions with historically high NO2 levels. Continuation of current efforts to lower traffic emissions and ambient air pollution may be an important component of reducing population-level risk of COVID-19 case fatality and mortality.
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•One of the first US studies on air pollution exposures and COVID-19 death outcomes•Urban air pollutants, especially NO2, may enhance population susceptibility to death fromCOVID-19•Reduction in air pollution would have avoided over 14,000 COVID-19 deaths in the US as of July 17, 2020•Public health actions needed to protect populations from COVID-19 in areas with historically high NO2 exposure•Expansion of efforts to lower air pollution may reduce population-level risk of COVID-19
Children in India are exposed to high levels of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5). However, population-level evidence of associations with adverse health outcomes from within the country is ...limited. The aim of our study is to estimate the association of early-life exposure to ambient PM2.5 with child health outcomes (height-for-age) in India.BACKGROUNDChildren in India are exposed to high levels of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5). However, population-level evidence of associations with adverse health outcomes from within the country is limited. The aim of our study is to estimate the association of early-life exposure to ambient PM2.5 with child health outcomes (height-for-age) in India.We linked nationally-representative anthropometric data from India's 2015-2016 Demographic and Health Survey (n = 218,152 children under five across 640 districts of India) with satellite-based PM2.5 exposure (concentration) data. We then applied fixed effects regression to assess the association between early-life ambient PM2.5 and subsequent height-for-age, analyzing whether deviations in air pollution from the seasonal average for a particular place are associated with deviations in child height from the average for that season in that place, controlling for trends over time, temperature, and birth, mother, and household characteristics. We also explored the timing of exposure and potential non-linearities in the concentration-response relationship.METHODSWe linked nationally-representative anthropometric data from India's 2015-2016 Demographic and Health Survey (n = 218,152 children under five across 640 districts of India) with satellite-based PM2.5 exposure (concentration) data. We then applied fixed effects regression to assess the association between early-life ambient PM2.5 and subsequent height-for-age, analyzing whether deviations in air pollution from the seasonal average for a particular place are associated with deviations in child height from the average for that season in that place, controlling for trends over time, temperature, and birth, mother, and household characteristics. We also explored the timing of exposure and potential non-linearities in the concentration-response relationship.Children in the sample were exposed to an average of 55 μ g/m3 of PM2.5 in their birth month. After controlling for potential confounders, a 100 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 in the month of birth was associated with a 0.05 0.01-0.09 standard deviation reduction in child height. For an average 5 year old girl, this represents a height deficit of 0.24 0.05-0.43 cm. We also found that exposure to PM2.5 in the last trimester in utero and in the first few months of life are significantly (p < 0.05) associated with child height deficits. We did not observe a decreasing marginal risk at high levels of exposure.RESULTSChildren in the sample were exposed to an average of 55 μ g/m3 of PM2.5 in their birth month. After controlling for potential confounders, a 100 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 in the month of birth was associated with a 0.05 0.01-0.09 standard deviation reduction in child height. For an average 5 year old girl, this represents a height deficit of 0.24 0.05-0.43 cm. We also found that exposure to PM2.5 in the last trimester in utero and in the first few months of life are significantly (p < 0.05) associated with child height deficits. We did not observe a decreasing marginal risk at high levels of exposure.India experiences some of the worst air pollution in the world. To our knowledge, this is the first study to estimate the association of early-life exposure to ambient PM2.5 on child height-for-age at the range of ambient pollution exposures observed in India. Because average exposure to ambient PM2.5 is high in India, where child height-for-age is a critical challenge in human development, our results highlight ambient air pollution as a public health policy priority.CONCLUSIONSIndia experiences some of the worst air pollution in the world. To our knowledge, this is the first study to estimate the association of early-life exposure to ambient PM2.5 on child height-for-age at the range of ambient pollution exposures observed in India. Because average exposure to ambient PM2.5 is high in India, where child height-for-age is a critical challenge in human development, our results highlight ambient air pollution as a public health policy priority.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Previous studies of short-term ambient air pollution exposure and asthma morbidity in the United States have been limited to a small number of cities and/or pollutants and with limited consideration ...of effects across ages.
To estimate acute age group-specific effects of fine and coarse particulate matter (PM), major PM components, and gaseous pollutants on emergency department (ED) visits for asthma during 2005-2014 across the United States.
We acquired ED visit and air quality data in regions surrounding 53 speciation sites in 10 states. We used quasi-Poisson log-linear time-series models with unconstrained distributed exposure lags to estimate site-specific acute effects of air pollution on asthma ED visits overall and by age group (1-4, 5-17, 18-49, 50-64, and
y), controlling for meteorology, time trends, and influenza activity. We then used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate pooled associations from site-specific associations.
Our analysis included
asthma ED visits. We observed positive associations for multiday cumulative exposure to all air pollutants examined e.g., 8-d exposure to
: rate ratio of 1.016 with 95% credible interval (CI) of (1.008, 1.025) per
increase,
: 1.014 (95% CI: 1.007, 1.020) per
increase, organic carbon: 1.016 (95% CI: 1.009, 1.024) per
increase, and ozone: 1.008 (95% CI: 0.995, 1.022) per
increase.
and ozone showed stronger effects at shorter lags, whereas associations of traffic-related pollutants (e.g., elemental carbon and oxides of nitrogen) were generally stronger at longer lags. Most pollutants had more pronounced effects on children (
y old) than adults;
had strong effects on both children and the elderly (
y old); and ozone had stronger effects on adults than children.
We reported positive associations between short-term air pollution exposure and increased rates of asthma ED visits. We found that air pollution exposure posed a higher risk for children and older populations. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11661.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
CEKLJ, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, OILJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK, VSZLJ
Abstract
Heat-related mortality has been identified as one of the key climate extremes posing a risk to human health. Current research focuses largely on how heat mortality increases with mean global ...temperature rise, but it is unclear how much climate change will increase the frequency and severity of extreme summer seasons with high impact on human health. In this probabilistic analysis, we combined empirical heat-mortality relationships for 748 locations from 47 countries with climate model large ensemble data to identify probable past and future highly impactful summer seasons. Across most locations, heat mortality counts of a 1-in-100 year season in the climate of 2000 would be expected once every ten to twenty years in the climate of 2020. These return periods are projected to further shorten under warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, where heat-mortality extremes of the past climate will eventually become commonplace if no adaptation occurs. Our findings highlight the urgent need for strong mitigation and adaptation to reduce impacts on human lives.
Ambient temperatures are projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Alzheimer's disease-related dementia (ADRD) affect millions of individuals and ...represent substantial health burdens in the US. High temperature may be a risk factor for AD/ADRD outcomes with several recent studies reporting associations between temperature and AD mortality. However, the link between heat and AD morbidity is poorly understood.
We examined short-term associations between warm-season daily ambient temperature and AD/ADRD emergency department (ED) visits for individuals aged 45 years or above during the warm season (May to October) for up to 14 years (2005–2018) in five US states: California, Missouri, North Carolina, New Jersey, and New York. Daily ZIP code-level maximum, average and minimum temperature exposures were derived from 1 km gridded Daymet products. Associations are assessed using a time-stratified case-crossover design using conditional logistic regression.
We found consistent positive short-term effects of ambient temperature among 3.4 million AD/ADRD ED visits across five states. An increase of the 3-day cumulative temperature exposure of daily average temperature from the 50th to the 95th percentile was associated with a pooled odds ratio of 1.042 (95% CI: 1.034, 1.051) for AD/ADRD ED visits. We observed evidence of the association being stronger for patients 65–74 years of age and for ED visits that led to hospital admissions. Temperature associations were also stronger among AD/ADRD ED visits compared to ED visits for other reasons, particularly among patients aged 65–74 years.
People with AD/ADRD may represent a vulnerable population affected by short-term exposure to high temperature. Our results support the development of targeted strategies to reduce heat-related AD/ADRD morbidity in the context of global warming.
•Alzheimer's disease (AD) and related dementia (ADRD) impact millions of Americans.•High ambient temperature may be a risk factor for AD/ADRD morbidity.•We analyzed over 3.4 millions AD/ADRD emergency department (ED) visits in 5 states.•We found positive associations between ambient temperature and AD/ADRD ED visits.•Associations were stronger for AD/ADRD ED visits resulting in hospital admission.
Abstract
Climate change and human activities have drastically altered the natural wildfire balance in the Western US and increased population health risks due to exposure to pollutants from fire ...smoke. Using dynamically downscaled climate model projections, we estimated additional asthma emergency room visits and hospitalizations due to exposure to smoke fine particulate matter (PM
2.5
) in the Western US in the 2050s. Isolating the amount of PM
2.5
from wildfire smoke is both difficult to estimate and, thus, utilized by relatively few studies. In this study, we use a sophisticated modeling approach to estimate future increase in wildfire smoke exposure over the reference period (2003–2010) and subsequent health care burden due to asthma exacerbation. Average increases in smoke PM
2.5
during future fire season ranged from 0.05 to 9.5
µ
g m
−3
with the highest increases seen in Idaho, Montana, and Oregon. Using the Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) A2 scenario, we estimated the smoke-related asthma events could increase at a rate of 15.1 visits per 10 000 persons in the Western US, with the highest rates of increased asthma (25.7–41.9 per 10 000) in Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and Washington. Finally, we estimated healthcare costs of smoke-induced asthma exacerbation to be over $1.5 billion during a single future fire season. Here we show the potential future health impact of climate-induced wildfire activity, which may serve as a key tool in future climate change mitigation and adaptation planning.
Abstract
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions has the ‘co-benefit’ of also reducing air pollution and associated impacts on human health. Here, we incorporate health co-benefits into estimates of the ...optimal climate policy for three different climate policy regimes. The first fully internalizes the climate externality at the global level via a uniform carbon price (the ‘cooperative equilibrium’), thus minimizing total mitigation costs. The second connects to the concept of ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’ where nations coordinate their actions while accounting for different national capabilities considering socioeconomic conditions. The third assumes nations act only in their own self-interest. We find that air quality co-benefits motivate substantially reduced emissions under all three policy regimes, but that some form of global cooperation is required to prevent runaway temperature rise. However, co-benefits do warrant high levels of mitigation in certain regions even in the self-interested case, suggesting that air quality impacts may expand the range of possible policy outcomes whereby global temperatures do not increase unabated.
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