Estimating incidence from cross-sectional data sources is both important to the understanding of the HIV epidemic and challenging from a methodological standpoint. We develop a new incidence ...estimator that measures the size of the undiagnosed population and the amount of time spent undiagnosed in order to infer incidence and transmission rates. The estimator is calculated using commonly collected information on testing history and HIV status and, thus, can be deployed in many HIV surveys without additional cost. If ART biomarker status and/or viral load information is available, the estimator can be adjusted for biases in self-reported testing history. The performance of the estimator is explored in two large surveys in Kenya, where we find our point estimates to be consistent with assay-derived estimates, with much smaller standard errors.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
High rates of attrition are stymying Mozambique's national HIV Program's efforts to achieve 80% treatment coverage. In response, Mozambique implemented a national pilot of Community Adherence and ...Support Groups (CASG). CASG is a model in which antiretroviral therapy (ART) patients form groups of up to six patients. On a rotating basis one CASG group member collects ART medications at the health facility for all group members, and distributes those medications to the other members in the community. Patients also visit their health facility bi-annually to receive clinical services.
A matched retrospective cohort study was implemented using routinely collected patient-level data in 68 health facilities with electronic data systems and CASG programs. A total of 129,938 adult ART patients were registered in those facilities. Of the 129,938 patients on ART, 6,760 were CASG members. A propensity score matched analysis was performed to assess differences in mortality and loss to follow-up (LTFU) between matched CASG and non-CASG members. Propensity scores were estimated using a random-effects logistic regression model. The following covariates where included in the model: sex, educational status, WHO stage, year of ART initiation, age, CASG eligibility, CD4 cell count category, weight, and employment status.
Non-CASG participants had higher LTFU rates (HR 2.356; p = 0.04) than matched CASG participants; however, there were no significant mortality differences between CASG and non-CASG participants. Compared with the full cohort of non-CASG members, CASG members were more likely to be female (74% vs. 68%), tended to have a lower median CD4 counts at ART initiation (183 cells/m3 vs. 200cells/m3) and be less likely to have a secondary school education (15% vs. 23%).
ART patients enrolled in CASG were significantly less likely to be LTFU compared to matched patients who did not join CASG. CASG appears to be an effective strategy to decrease LTFU in Mozambique's national ART program.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The Nigerian Antiretroviral therapy (ART) program started in 2004 and now ranks among the largest in Africa. However, nationally representative data on outcomes have not been reported.
We evaluated ...retrospective cohort data from a nationally representative sample of adults aged ≥15 years who initiated ART during 2004 to 2012. Data were abstracted from 3,496 patient records at 35 sites selected using probability-proportional-to-size (PPS) sampling. Analyses were weighted and controlled for the complex survey design. The main outcome measures were mortality, loss to follow-up (LTFU), and retention (the proportion alive and on ART). Potential predictors of attrition were assessed using competing risk regression models.
At ART initiation, 66.4 percent (%) were females, median age was 33 years, median weight 56 kg, median CD4 count 161 cells/mm3, and 47.1% had stage III/IV disease. The percentage of patients retained at 12, 24, 36 and 48 months was 81.2%, 74.4%, 67.2%, and 61.7%, respectively. Over 10,088 person-years of ART, mortality, LTFU, and overall attrition (mortality, LTFU, and treatment stop) rates were 1.1 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.7-1.8), 12.3 (95%CI: 8.9-17.0), and 13.9 (95% CI: 10.4-18.5) per 100 person-years (py) respectively. Highest attrition rates of 55.4/100py were witnessed in the first 3 months on ART. Predictors of LTFU included: lower-than-secondary level education (reference: Tertiary), care in North-East and South-South regions (reference: North-Central), presence of moderate/severe anemia, symptomatic functional status, and baseline weight <45kg. Predictor of mortality was WHO stage higher than stage I. Male sex, severe anemia, and care in a small clinic were associated with both mortality and LTFU.
Moderate/Advanced HIV disease was predictive of attrition; earlier ART initiation could improve program outcomes. Retention interventions targeting men and those with lower levels of education are needed. Further research to understand geographic and clinic size variations with outcome is warranted.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Since establishment of Zimbabwe's National Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) Programme in 2004, ART provision has expanded from <5,000 to 369,431 adults by 2011. However, patient outcomes are unexplored.
...To determine improvement in health status, retention and factors associated with attrition among HIV-infected patients on ART.
A retrospective review of abstracted patient records of adults ≥ 15 years who initiated ART from 2007 to 2009 was done. Frequencies and medians were calculated for rates of retention in care and changes in key health status outcomes at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months respectively. Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine factors associated with attrition.
Of the 3,919 patients, 64% were female, 86% were either WHO clinical stage III or IV. Rates of patient retention at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months were 90.7%, 78.1%, 68.8% and 64.4%, respectively. After ART initiation, median weight gains at 6, 12, and 24 months were 3, 4.5, and 5.0 kgs whilst median CD4+ cell count gains at 6, 12 and 24 months were 122, 157 and 279 cells/µL respectively. Factors associated with an increased risk of attrition included male gender (AHR 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.4), baseline WHO stage IV (AHR 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1-2.6), lower baseline body weight (AHR 2.0; 95% CI, 1.4-2. 8) and accessing care from higher level healthcare facilities (AHR 3.5; 95% 1.1-11.2).
Our findings with regard to retention as well as clinical and immunological improvements following uptake of ART, are similar to what has been found in other settings. Factors influencing attrition also mirror those found in other parts of sub-Saharan Africa. These findings suggest the need to strengthen earlier diagnosis and treatment to further improve treatment outcomes. Whilst decentralisation improves ART coverage it should be coupled with strategies aimed at improving patient retention.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
We analyzed HIV testing rates, prevalence of undiagnosed HIV, and predictors of testing in the Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey (KAIS) 2007.
KAIS was a nationally representative sero-survey that included ...demographic and behavioral indicators and testing for HIV, HSV-2, syphilis, and CD4 cell counts in the population aged 15-64 years. We used gender-specific multivariable regression models to identify factors independently associated with HIV testing in sexually active persons.
Of 19,840 eligible persons, 80% consented to interviews and blood specimen collection. National HIV prevalence was 7.1% (95% CI 6.5-7.7). Among ever sexually active persons, 27.4% (95% CI 25.6-29.2) of men and 44.2% (95% CI 42.5-46.0) of women reported previous HIV testing. Among HIV-infected persons, 83.6% (95% CI 76.2-91.0) were unaware of their HIV infection. Among sexually active women aged 15-49 years, 48.7% (95% CI 46.8-50.6) had their last HIV test during antenatal care (ANC). In multivariable analyses, the adjusted odds ratio (AOR) for ever HIV testing in women ≥35 versus 15-19 years was 0.2 (95% CI: 0.1-0.3; p<0.0001). Other independent associations with ever HIV testing included urban residence (AOR 1.6, 95% CI: 1.2-2.0; p = 0.0005, women only), highest wealth index versus the four lower quintiles combined (AOR 1.8, 95% CI: 1.3-2.5; p = 0.0006, men only), and an increasing testing trend with higher levels of education. Missed opportunities for testing were identified during general or pregnancy-specific contacts with health facilities; 89% of adults said they would participate in home-based HIV testing.
The vast majority of HIV-infected persons in Kenya are unaware of their HIV status, posing a major barrier to HIV prevention, care and treatment efforts. New approaches to HIV testing provision and education, including home-based testing, may increase coverage. Targeted interventions should involve sexually active men, sexually active women without access to ANC, and rural and disadvantaged populations.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
To determine factors associated with HIV status unawareness and assess HIV prevention knowledge and condom use among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) in Mozambique.
Cross-sectional household-based ...nationally representative AIDS Indicator Survey.
Analyses focused on HIV-infected adults and were weighted for the complex sampling design. We identified PLHIV who had never been tested for HIV or received their test results prior to this survey. Logistic regression was used to assess factors associated with HIV status unawareness.
Of persons with positive HIV test results (N = 1182), 61% (95% confidence interval CI 57-65%) were unaware of their serostatus. Men had twice the odds of being unaware of their serostatus compared with women adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.05, CI 1.40-2.98. PLHIV in the poorest wealth quintile were most likely to be unaware of their serostatus (aOR 3.15, CI 1.09-9.12) compared to those in the middle wealth quintile. Most PLHIV (83%, CI 79-87%) reported not using a condom during their last sexual intercourse, and PLHIV who reported not using a condom during their last sexual intercourse were more likely to be unaware of their serostatus (aOR 2.32, CI 1.57-3.43) than those who used a condom.
Knowledge of HIV-positive status is associated with more frequent condom use in Mozambique. However, most HIV-infected persons are unaware of their serostatus, with men and persons in the poorest wealth quintile being more likely to be unaware. These findings support calls for expanded HIV testing, especially among groups less likely to be aware of their HIV status and key populations at higher risk for infection.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Vietnam has significantly scaled up its national antiretroviral therapy (ART) program since 2005. With the aim of improving Vietnam's national ART program, we conducted an outcome evaluation of the ...first five years of the program in this concentrated HIV epidemic where the majority of persons enrolled in HIV care and treatment services are people who inject drugs (PWID). The results of this evaluation may have relevance for other national ART programs with significant PWID populations.
Retrospective cohort analysis of patients at 30 clinics randomly selected with probability proportional to size among 120 clinics with at least 50 patients on ART.
Charts of patients whose ART initiation was at least 6 months prior to the study date were abstracted. Depending on clinic size, either all charts or a random sample of 300 charts were selected. Analyses were limited to treatment-naïve patients. Multiple imputations were used for missing data.
Of 7,587 patient charts sampled, 6,875 were those of treatment-naïve patients (74.4% male, 95% confidence interval CI: 72.4-76.5, median age 30, interquartile range IQR: 26-34, 62.0% reported a history of intravenous drug use, CI: 58.6-65.3). Median baseline CD4 cell count was 78 cells/mm(3) (IQR: 30-162) and 30.4% (CI: 25.8-35.1) of patients were at WHO stage IV. The majority of patients started d4T/3TC/NVP (74.3%) or d4T/3TC/EFV (18.6%). Retention rates after 6, 12, 24, and 36 months were 88.4% (CI: 86.8-89.9), 84.0% (CI: 81.8-86.0), 78.8% (CI: 75.7-81.6), and 74.6% (CI: 69.6-79.0). Median CD4 cell count gains after 6, 12, 24, and 36 months were 94 (IQR: 45-153), 142 (IQR: 78-217), 213 (IQR: 120-329), and 254 (IQR: 135-391) cells/mm(3). Patients who were PWID showed significantly poorer retention.
The study showed good retention and immunological response to ART among a predominantly PWID group of patients despite advanced HIV infections at baseline.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Nigeria had the most AIDS-related deaths worldwide in 2014 (170,000), and 46% were associated with tuberculosis (TB). Although treatment of people living with HIV (PLHIV) with antiretroviral therapy ...(ART) reduces TB-associated morbidity and mortality, incident TB can occur while on ART. We estimated incidence and characterized factors associated with TB after ART initiation in Nigeria.
We analyzed retrospective cohort data from a nationally representative sample of adult patients on ART. Data were abstracted from 3,496 patient records, and analyses were weighted and controlled for a complex survey design. We performed domain analyses on patients without documented TB disease and used a Cox proportional hazard model to assess factors associated with TB incidence after ART.
At ART initiation, 3,350 patients (95.8%) were not receiving TB treatment. TB incidence after ART initiation was 0.57 per 100 person-years, and significantly higher for patients with CD4<50/μL (adjusted hazard ratio AHR: 4.2, 95% confidence interval CI: 1.4-12.7) compared with CD4≥200/μL. Patients with suspected but untreated TB at ART initiation and those with a history of prior TB were more likely to develop incident TB (AHR: 12.2, 95% CI: 4.5-33.5 and AHR: 17.6, 95% CI: 3.5-87.9, respectively).
Incidence of TB among PLHIV after ART initiation was low, and predicted by advanced HIV, prior TB, and suspected but untreated TB. Study results suggest a need for improved TB screening and diagnosis, particularly among high-risk PLHIV initiating ART, and reinforce the benefit of early ART and other TB prevention efforts.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
To assess the performance of symptom-based screening for tuberculosis (TB), alone and with chest radiography among people living with HIV (PLHIV), including pregnant women, in Western Kenya.
...Prospective cohort study.
PLHIV from 15 randomly-selected HIV clinics were screened with three clinical algorithms World Health Organization (WHO), Ministry of Health (MOH), and "Improving Diagnosis of TB in HIV-infected persons" (ID-TB/HIV) study, underwent chest radiography (unless pregnant), and provided two or more sputum specimens for smear microscopy, liquid culture, and Xpert MTB/RIF. Performance of clinical screening was compared to laboratory results, controlling for the complex design of the survey.
Overall, 738 (85.6%) of 862 PLHIV enrolled were included in the analysis. Estimated TB prevalence was 11.2% (95% CI, 9.9-12.7). Sensitivity of the three screening algorithms was similar WHO, 74.1% (95% CI, 64.1-82.2); MOH, 77.5% (95% CI, 68.6-84.5); and ID-TB/HIV, 72.5% (95% CI, 60.9-81.7). Sensitivity of the WHO algorithm was significantly lower among HIV-infected pregnant women 28.2% (95% CI, 14.9-46.7) compared to non-pregnant women 78.3% (95% CI, 67.3-86.4) and men 77.2% (95% CI, 68.3-84.2). Chest radiography increased WHO algorithm sensitivity and negative predictive value to 90.9% (95% CI, 86.4-93.9) and 96.1% (95% CI, 94.4-97.3), respectively, among asymptomatic men and non-pregnant women.
Clinical screening missed approximately 25% of laboratory-confirmed TB cases among all PLHIV and more than 70% among HIV-infected pregnant women. National HIV programs should evaluate the feasibility of laboratory-based screening for TB, such as a single Xpert MTB/RIF test for all PLHIV, especially pregnant women, at enrollment in HIV services.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Among people living with HIV (PLHIV), more flexible and sensitive tuberculosis (TB) screening tools capable of detecting both symptomatic and subclinical active TB are needed to (1) reduce morbidity ...and mortality from undiagnosed TB; (2) facilitate scale-up of tuberculosis preventive therapy (TPT) while reducing inappropriate prescription of TPT to PLHIV with subclinical active TB; and (3) allow for differentiated HIV-TB care.
We used Botswana XPRES trial data for adult HIV clinic enrollees collected during 2012 to 2015 to develop a parsimonious multivariable prognostic model for active prevalent TB using both logistic regression and random forest machine learning approaches. A clinical score was derived by rescaling final model coefficients. The clinical score was developed using southern Botswana XPRES data and its accuracy validated internally, using northern Botswana data, and externally using 3 diverse cohorts of antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive and ART-experienced PLHIV enrolled in XPHACTOR, TB Fast Track (TBFT), and Gugulethu studies from South Africa (SA). Predictive accuracy of the clinical score was compared with the World Health Organization (WHO) 4-symptom TB screen. Among 5,418 XPRES enrollees, 2,771 were included in the derivation dataset; 67% were female, median age was 34 years, median CD4 was 240 cells/μL, 189 (7%) had undiagnosed prevalent TB, and characteristics were similar between internal derivation and validation datasets. Among XPHACTOR, TBFT, and Gugulethu cohorts, median CD4 was 400, 73, and 167 cells/μL, and prevalence of TB was 5%, 10%, and 18%, respectively. Factors predictive of TB in the derivation dataset and selected for the clinical score included male sex (1 point), ≥1 WHO TB symptom (7 points), smoking history (1 point), temperature >37.5°C (6 points), body mass index (BMI) <18.5kg/m2 (2 points), and severe anemia (hemoglobin <8g/dL) (3 points). Sensitivity using WHO 4-symptom TB screen was 73%, 80%, 94%, and 94% in XPRES, XPHACTOR, TBFT, and Gugulethu cohorts, respectively, but increased to 88%, 87%, 97%, and 97%, when a clinical score of ≥2 was used. Negative predictive value (NPV) also increased 1%, 0.3%, 1.6%, and 1.7% in XPRES, XPHACTOR, TBFT, and Gugulethu cohorts, respectively, when the clinical score of ≥2 replaced WHO 4-symptom TB screen. Categorizing risk scores into low (<2), moderate (2 to 10), and high-risk categories (>10) yielded TB prevalence of 1%, 1%, 2%, and 6% in the lowest risk group and 33%, 22%, 26%, and 32% in the highest risk group for XPRES, XPHACTOR, TBFT, and Gugulethu cohorts, respectively. At clinical score ≥2, the number needed to screen (NNS) ranged from 5.0 in Gugulethu to 11.0 in XPHACTOR. Limitations include that the risk score has not been validated in resource-rich settings and needs further evaluation and validation in contemporary cohorts in Africa and other resource-constrained settings.
The simple and feasible clinical score allowed for prioritization of sensitivity and NPV, which could facilitate reductions in mortality from undiagnosed TB and safer administration of TPT during proposed global scale-up efforts. Differentiation of risk by clinical score cutoff allows flexibility in designing differentiated HIV-TB care to maximize impact of available resources.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
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