Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Icelandic Population Gudbjartsson, Daniel F; Helgason, Agnar; Jonsson, Hakon ...
The New England journal of medicine,
06/2020, Letnik:
382, Številka:
24
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Despite timely implementation of testing for SARS-CoV-2 virus, a contact-tracing scheme, and social-distancing measures, infection has spread in Iceland. However, there was no detected increase in ...the proportion of infected persons between March 13 and April 4, 2020.
Abstract
A pressing concern in the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and other viral outbreaks, is the extent to which the containment measures are halting the viral spread. A straightforward way to assess this is ...to tally the active cases and the recovered ones throughout the epidemic. Here, we show how epidemic control can be assessed with molecular information during a well characterized epidemic in Iceland. We demonstrate how the viral concentration decreased in those newly diagnosed as the epidemic transitioned from exponential growth phase to containment phase. The viral concentration in the cases identified in population screening decreased faster than in those symptomatic and considered at high risk and that were targeted by the healthcare system. The viral concentration persists in recovering individuals as we found that half of the cases are still positive after two weeks. We demonstrate that accumulation of mutations in SARS-CoV-2 genome can be exploited to track the rate of new viral generations throughout the different phases of the epidemic, where the accumulation of mutations decreases as the transmission rate decreases in the containment phase. Overall, the molecular signatures of SARS-CoV-2 infections contain valuable epidemiological information that can be used to assess the effectiveness of containment measures.
Background
Data collected by mobile devices can augment surveillance of epidemics in real time. However, methods and evidence for the integration of these data into modern surveillance systems are ...sparse. We linked call detail records (CDR) with an influenza‐like illness (ILI) registry and evaluated the role that Icelandic international travellers played in the introduction and propagation of influenza A/H1N1pdm09 virus in Iceland through the course of the 2009 pandemic.
Methods
This nested case‐control study compared odds of exposure to Keflavik International Airport among cases and matched controls producing longitudinal two‐week matched odds ratios (mORs) from August to December 2009. We further evaluated rates of ILI among 1st‐ and 2nd‐degree phone connections of cases compared to their matched controls.
Results
The mOR was elevated in the initial stages of the epidemic from 7 August until 21 August (mOR = 2.53; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.35, 4.78). During the two‐week period from 17 August through 31 August, we calculated the two‐week incidence density ratio of ILI among 1st‐degree connections to be 2.96 (95% CI: 1.43, 5.84).
Conclusions
Exposure to Keflavik International Airport increased the risk of incident ILI diagnoses during the initial stages of the epidemic. Using these methods for other regions of Iceland, we evaluated the geographic spread of ILI over the course of the epidemic. Our methods were validated through similar evaluation of a domestic airport. The techniques described in this study can be used for hypothesis‐driven evaluations of locations and behaviours during an epidemic and their associations with health outcomes.
The International Circumpolar Surveillance System is a population-based surveillance network for invasive bacterial disease in the Arctic. The 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) was ...introduced for routine infant vaccination in Alaska (2001), northern Canada (2002-2006), and Norway (2006). Data for invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) were analyzed to identify clinical findings, disease rates, serotype distribution, and antimicrobial drug susceptibility; 11,244 IPD cases were reported. Pneumonia and bacteremia were common clinical findings. Rates of IPD among indigenous persons in Alaska and northern Canada were 43 and 38 cases per 100,000 population, respectively. Rates in children <2 years of age ranged from 21 to 153 cases per 100,000 population. In Alaska and northern Canada, IPD rates in children <2 years of age caused by PCV7 serotypes decreased by >80% after routine vaccination. IPD rates are high among indigenous persons and children in Arctic countries. After vaccine introduction, IPD caused by non-PCV7 serotypes increased in Alaska.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, ODKLJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Humoral Immune Response to SARS-CoV-2 in Iceland Gudbjartsson, Daniel F; Norddahl, Gudmundur L; Melsted, Pall ...
The New England journal of medicine,
10/2020, Letnik:
383, Številka:
18
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
This large comparative study of the Icelandic population showed that the humoral response did not decline within 4 months after infection, that 44% of persons who had been infected had not been ...diagnosed with qPCR, and that the infection fatality risk was 0.3%.
The Water Safety Plan (WSP) methodology, which aims to enhance safety of drinking water supplies, has been recommended by the World Health Organization since 2004. WSPs are now used worldwide and are ...legally required in several countries. However, there is limited systematic evidence available demonstrating the effectiveness of WSPs on water quality and health. Iceland was one of the first countries to legislate the use of WSPs, enabling the analysis of more than a decade of data on impact of WSP. The objective was to determine the impact of WSP implementation on regulatory compliance, microbiological water quality, and incidence of clinical cases of diarrhea. Surveillance data on water quality and diarrhea were collected and analyzed. The results show that HPC (heterotrophic plate counts), representing microbiological growth in the water supply system, decreased statistically significant with fewer incidents of HPC exceeding 10 cfu per mL in samples following WSP implementation and noncompliance was also significantly reduced (p < 0.001 in both cases). A significant decrease in incidence of diarrhea was detected where a WSP was implemented, and, furthermore, the results indicate that population where WSP has been implemented is 14% less likely to develop clinical cases of diarrhea.
Epidemic preparedness depends on our ability to predict the trajectory of an epidemic and the human behavior that drives spread in the event of an outbreak. Changes to behavior during an outbreak ...limit the reliability of syndromic surveillance using large-scale data sources, such as online social media or search behavior, which could otherwise supplement healthcare-based outbreak-prediction methods. Here, we measure behavior change reflected in mobile-phone call-detail records (CDRs), a source of passively collected real-time behavioral information, using an anonymously linked dataset of cell-phone users and their date of influenza-like illness diagnosis during the 2009 H1N1v pandemic. We demonstrate that mobile-phone use during illness differs measurably from routine behavior: Diagnosed individuals exhibit less movement than normal (1.1 to 1.4 fewer unique tower locations; Formula: see text), on average, in the 2 to 4 d around diagnosis and place fewer calls (2.3 to 3.3 fewer calls; Formula: see text) while spending longer on the phone (41- to 66-s average increase; Formula: see text) than usual on the day following diagnosis. The results suggest that anonymously linked CDRs and health data may be sufficiently granular to augment epidemic surveillance efforts and that infectious disease-modeling efforts lacking explicit behavior-change mechanisms need to be revisited.
Infants treated in neonatal intensive care units suffer an increased risk for invasive candidiasis, but the diagnosis is sometimes difficult. D-arabinitol is a metabolite of most pathogenic Candida ...species. An elevated urine D-arabinitol/L-arabinitol (DA/LA) ratio is a sensitive sign of invasive candidiasis in children with cancer, but the method has not been previously evaluated for newborn infants. We therefore enrolled 117 infants in a neonatal intensive care unit, and 411 urine samples were obtained on filter paper. The DA/LA ratio was measured by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. For 81 infants with no suspicion of superficial or invasive candidiasis, the urine DA/LA ratio was 2.7 +/- 0.7 (mean +/- standard deviation SD). The upper cutoff level was set at 4.8 (mean plus 3 SD). Of 22 infants with mucocutaneous candidiasis and not given systemic antifungal treatment, two had elevated DA/LA ratios, which normalized after removal of intravascular catheters. Eight other infants were given empiric antifungal treatment but had negative cultures; five of these had repeatedly elevated DA/LA ratios. Six infants with culture-positive invasive candidiasis all had one or more samples with elevated ratios. For seven infants, three with suspected and four with confirmed invasive candidiasis (for which follow-up samples were available), ratios normalized during antifungal treatment. In conclusion, urine DA/LA ratio determination is a rapid test and can be used for newborns. It is possibly more sensitive than fungal blood cultures in the diagnosis of invasive candidiasis and can also be used for monitoring the effect of antifungal treatment.
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