TNM staging alone does not accurately predict outcome in colon cancer (CC) patients who may be eligible for adjuvant chemotherapy. It is unknown to what extent the molecular markers microsatellite ...instability (MSI) and mutations in BRAF or KRAS improve prognostic estimation in multivariable models that include detailed clinicopathological annotation.
After imputation of missing at random data, a subset of patients accrued in phase 3 trials with adjuvant chemotherapy (n=3016)—N0147 (NCT00079274) and PETACC3 (NCT00026273)—was aggregated to construct multivariable Cox models for 5-year overall survival that were subsequently validated internally in the remaining clinical trial samples (n=1499), and also externally in different population cohorts of chemotherapy-treated (n=949) or -untreated (n=1080) CC patients, and an additional series without treatment annotation (n=782).
TNM staging, MSI and BRAFV600E mutation status remained independent prognostic factors in multivariable models across clinical trials cohorts and observational studies. Concordance indices increased from 0.61–0.68 in the TNM alone model to 0.63–0.71 in models with added molecular markers, 0.65–0.73 with clinicopathological features and 0.66–0.74 with all covariates. In validation cohorts with complete annotation, the integrated time-dependent AUC rose from 0.64 for the TNM alone model to 0.67 for models that included clinicopathological features, with or without molecular markers. In patient cohorts that received adjuvant chemotherapy, the relative proportion of variance explained (R2) by TNM, clinicopathological features and molecular markers was on an average 65%, 25% and 10%, respectively.
Incorporation of MSI, BRAFV600E and KRAS mutation status to overall survival models with TNM staging improves the ability to precisely prognosticate in stage II and III CC patients, but only modestly increases prediction accuracy in multivariable models that include clinicopathological features, particularly in chemotherapy-treated patients.
Microsatellite instable/deficient mismatch repair (MSI/dMMR) metastatic colorectal cancers have been reported to have a poor prognosis. Frequent co-occurrence of MSI/dMMR and BRAFV600E complicates ...the association.
Patients with resected stage III colon cancer (CC) from seven adjuvant studies with available data for disease recurrence and MMR and BRAFV600E status were analyzed. The primary end point was survival after recurrence (SAR). Associations of markers with SAR were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, gender, performance status, T stage, N stage, primary tumor location, grade, KRAS status, and timing of recurrence.
Among 2630 patients with cancer recurrence (1491 men 56.7%, mean age, 58.5 19–85 years), multivariable analysis revealed that patients with MSI/dMMR tumors had significantly longer SAR than did patients with microsatellite stable/proficient MMR tumors (MSS/pMMR) (adjusted hazard ratio aHR, 0.82; 95% CI confidence interval, 0.69–0.98; P = 0.029). This finding remained when looking at patients treated with standard oxaliplatin-based adjuvant chemotherapy regimens only (aHR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.58–1.00; P = 0.048). Same trends for SAR were observed when analyzing MSI/dMMR versus MSS/pMMR tumor subgroups lacking BRAFV600E (aHR, 0.84; P = 0.10) or those harboring BRAFV600E (aHR, 0.88; P = 0.43), without reaching statistical significance. Furthermore, SAR was significantly shorter in tumors with BRAFV600E versus those lacking this mutation (aHR, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.73–2.46; P < 0.0001), even in the subgroup of MSI/dMMR tumors (aHR, 2.65; 95% CI, 1.67–4.21; P < 0.0001). Other factors associated with a shorter SAR were as follows: older age, male gender, T4/N2, proximal primary tumor location, poorly differentiated adenocarcinoma, and early recurrence.
In stage III CC patients recurring after adjuvant chemotherapy, and before the era of immunotherapy, the MSI/dMMR phenotype was associated with a better SAR compared with MSS/pMMR. BRAFV600E mutation was a poor prognostic factor for both MSI/dMMR and MSS/pMMR patients.
NCT00079274, NCT00265811, NCT00004931, NCT00004931, NCT00026273, NCT00096278, NCT00112918.
Approximately 15% of colorectal cancers develop because of defective function of the DNA mismatch repair (MMR) system. We determined the association of MMR status with colon cancer recurrence and ...examined the impact of 5-fluorouracil (FU)-based adjuvant therapy on recurrence variables.
We included stage II and III colon carcinoma patients (n = 2141) who were treated in randomized trials of 5-FU-based adjuvant therapy. Tumors were analyzed for microsatellite instability by polymerase chain reaction and/or for MMR protein expression by immunohistochemistry to determine deficient MMR (dMMR) or proficient MMR (pMMR) status. Associations of MMR status and/or 5-FU-based treatment with clinicopathologic and recurrence covariates were determined using χ(2) or Fisher Exact or Wilcoxon rank-sum tests. Time to recurrence (TTR), disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS) were analyzed using univariate and multivariable Cox models, with the latter adjusted for covariates. Tumors showing dMMR were categorized by presumed germline vs sporadic origin and were assessed for their prognostic and predictive impact. All statistical tests were two-sided.
In this study population, dMMR was detected in 344 of 2141 (16.1%) tumors. Compared with pMMR tumors, dMMR was associated with reduced 5-year recurrence rates (33% vs 22%; P < .001), delayed TTR (P < .001), and fewer distant recurrences (22% vs 12%; P < .001). In multivariable models, dMMR was independently associated with delayed TTR (hazard ratio = 0.72, 95% confidence interval = 0.56 to 0.91, P = .005) and improved DFS (P = .035) and OS (P = .031). In stage III cancers, 5-FU-based treatment vs surgery alone or no 5-FU was associated with reduced distant recurrence for dMMR tumors (11% vs 29%; P = .011) and reduced recurrence to all sites for pMMR tumors (P < .001). The dMMR tumors with suspected germline mutations were associated with improved DFS after 5-FU-based treatment compared with sporadic tumors where no benefit was observed (P = .006).
Patients with dMMR colon cancers have reduced rates of tumor recurrence, delayed TTR, and improved survival rates, compared with pMMR colon cancers. Distant recurrences were reduced by 5-FU-based adjuvant treatment in dMMR stage III tumors, and a subset analysis suggested that any treatment benefit was restricted to suspected germline vs sporadic tumors.
Tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs), tumor budding, and micropapillary architecture may influence tumor growth and metastatic potential, thereby enhancing prognostic stratification. We analyzed ...these features and their relative contribution to overall outcome and in low (T1–3 N1) and high (T4 and/or N2) risk groups that are used to inform the duration of adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with resected stage III colon cancers.
Among 1532 patients treated in a phase III adjuvant trial of FOLFOX-based therapy, intraepithelial TIL densities, tumor budding, and micropapillary features were analyzed and quantified in routine histopathological sections with light microscopy. Optimal cut-points were determined in association with disease-free survival (DFS) in training and validation sets. Associations or relative contributions of individual features or combined variables with DFS were determined using multivariable Cox regression models.
TILs, tumor budding, and micropapillary features were shown to differ significantly by T, N risk groups and by mismatch repair (MMR) status. Low TILs, high budding, and their combined variable hazard ratio = 2.07 (95% CI, 1.50% to 2.88%); Padj < 0.0001, but not micropapillary features, were each significantly associated with poorer DFS in a training data set and confirmed in a validation set. TILs were prognostic in proficient mismatch repair (pMMR) and deficient mismatch repair (dMMR) tumors; budding was prognostic only in pMMR tumors. The percentage relative contribution of budding/TILs to DFS was second only to nodal status overall, was second (24.4%) after KRAS in low-risk patients, and was the most important contributor (45.4%) in high-risk patients.
TIL density and tumor budding were each validated as significant prognostic variables and their combined variable provided robust prognostic stratification by T, N risk groups, being the strongest predictor of DFS among high-risk stage III patients.
NCT00079274.
•The microenvironmental features of TIL density and tumor budding may determine tumor metastatic potential.•In stage III colon cancer patients, TIL density and tumor budding were each validated as significant prognostic variables.•Tumor budding/TIL combined variable provided robust prognostic stratification overall and in both low and high risk groups.•The relative contribution of tumor budding/TILs to DFS was second only to N stage in the overall cohort.•The relative contribution of tumor budding/TILs to DFS was second to KRAS in low risk and first in high risk patients.
Tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) are a robust and independent prognostic variable in localized colon cancer. Given reported differences in molecular features and prognosis of right- versus ...left-sided tumors, we examined the association of TIL densities with patient survival by primary tumor sidedness in stage III cancers, including clinical low- (T1-3, N1) and high-risk (T4 and/or N2) groups.
In a phase III trial of FOLFOX-based adjuvant chemotherapy, TIL densities were analyzed and dichotomized in colon carcinomas (N = 1532) based on a previously determined cut point optimized for disease-free survival (DFS). Right-sided tumors were defined as proximal to the splenic flexure. Associations of TILs and sidedness with 5-year DFS were examined using Kaplan–Meier methodology along with multivariable modeling and relative contribution analysis by Cox regression.
Lower TIL densities were found in left- versus right-sided tumors (P < 0.0001). The association of TIL densities with DFS differed significantly by tumor sidedness (Pinteraction = 0.045). Overall, patient tumors with low (versus high) TILs had significantly poorer DFS in right-sided (hazard ratio 2.02, 95% confidence interval 1.45-2.82; Padj < 0.0001), but not left-sided tumors (Padj = 0.1731). Among clinical low-risk patients, low (versus high) TILs were adversely prognostic only in right-sided tumors (Padj = 0.0058). Among high-risk patients, low TILs were prognostic independent of sidedness (Padj < 0.025). The relative contribution of TILs to DFS was substantially greater in right- versus left-sided tumors (24% versus 1.5%). In high-risk tumors, TILs had the highest relative contribution to DFS (42%) of all variables. In low-risk tumors, the contribution of TILs (16%) to DFS was second to KRAS.
The association of TIL densities with patient survival differed by primary tumor sidedness and clinical risk group, suggesting that TILs should be interpreted in this context among stage III colon cancers.
NCT00079274; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00079274
•Association of TIL densities with 5-year DFS differed significantly by primary tumor sidedness.•Overall, low versus high TILs were significantly associated with poorer DFS among right-sided, but not left-sided tumors.•Prognostic impact of TILs was limited to right-sided cancers among clinical low-risk tumors.•Relative contribution of TILs to DFS was greater in right- versus left-sided tumors (24% versus 1.5%).•In clinical high-risk tumors, TILs had the highest relative contribution to DFS of all variables.
The prognostic value of KRAS and BRAFV600E mutations in stage III colon cancer (CC) remains controversial and has never been clearly analyzed in patients with microsatellite instability-high (MSI-H) ...tumors due to sample size limitations. Data are also lacking for KRAS submutations and prognosis.
We examined clinicopathological variables and prognosis in patients with surgically resected stage III CC who participated in seven clinical trials from the ACCENT/IDEA databases. Associations between KRAS exon 2 and BRAFV600E mutations and time to recurrence (TTR), overall survival (OS), and survival after recurrence (SAR) were assessed using a Cox model. We also analyzed the prognostic value of KRAS exon 2 submutations.
Among 8460 patients, 11.4% had MSI-H status. In the MSI-H group, BRAFV600E, KRAS exon 2 mutants, and double-wild-type statuses were detected in 40.6%, 18.1%, and 41.3%, respectively, whereas and in the microsatellite stable (MSS) group, these were detected in 7.7%, 38.6%, and 53.8%, respectively. In the MSS group, 5-year TTR rates of 61.8%, 66.3%, and 72.9% were observed among patients with BRAFV600E, KRAS exon 2 mutants, and those who were DWT, respectively adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 1.58 and 1.31, both P < 0.001. In the MSI-H group, 5-year TTR rates did not differ significantly among the mutated subgroups. Similar results were found for OS. However, survival after relapse was significantly shorter in the KRAS exon 2- and BRAFV600E-mutated patients in both MSS (adjusted HR = 2.06 and 1.15; both P < 0.05) and MSI-H (adjusted HR = 1.99 and 1.81; both P < 0.05) groups. In the MSS group, KRAS exon 2 mutations were associated with TTR, but only p.G12C, p.G12D, and p.G13D were associated with poor outcomes after disease recurrence.
Testing for both KRAS and BRAFV600E mutations in stage III patients should be considered as they can better define individual patient prognosis, and may also enable patient selection for (neo)adjuvant trials dedicated to specific molecular subtypes with poor prognosis.
•KRAS exon 2 and BRAFV600E mutations are associated with shorter TTR in patients resected from a stage III MSS CC.•KRAS exon 2 and BRAFV600E mutations are not associated with shorter TTR in patients resected from a stage III MSI-H CC.•BRAFV600E, KRAS G12C, and G13D mutations are associated with shorter SAR in patients resected from a stage III MSS CC.
Cyclooxygenase (COX)-2 mRNA and protein expression were found to be frequently elevated in human pancreatic adenocarcinomas and cell lines derived from such tumors. Immunohistochemistry demonstrated ...cytoplasmic COX-2 expression in 14 of 21 (67%) pancreatic carcinomas. The level of COX-2 mRNA was found to be elevated in carcinomas, relative to histologically normal pancreas from a healthy individual, as assessed by reverse transcription-PCR. COX-2 protein expression was detected by the Western blot assay in three of five pancreatic carcinoma cell lines (BxPC-3, Capan-1, and MDAPanc-3), whereas COX-1 protein was detected in two of the five cell lines (BxPC-3 and Capan-1). Increased levels of COX-2 mRNA were found in four of five cell lines, and only in PANC-1 cells was the low level of transcript comparable to that in the normal pancreas. The level of COX-2 mRNA was positively correlated with the differentiation status of the tumor of origin for each cell line, COX-2 protein expression was up-regulated by epidermal growth factor when the cells were grown in absence of serum. Finally, two nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, sulindac sulfide and NS398, produced a dose-dependent inhibition of cell proliferation in all pancreatic cell lines tested. No correlation was found between the level of COX-2 or COX-1 expression and the extent of growth inhibition. Treatment of BxPC-3 cells with sulindac sulfide and NS398 resulted in an induction of COX-2 expression. Our findings indicate that COX-2 up-regulation is a frequent event in pancreatic cancers and suggest that nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs may be useful in the chemoprevention and therapy of pancreatic carcinoma.
The consensus Immunoscore is a routine assay quantifying the adaptive immune response within the tumor microenvironment. It has a prognostic value that has been confirmed in a phase 3 clinical trial ...(NCCTG N0147) in stage III colon cancers. Moreover, results from another phase 3 randomized trial revealed the predictive value of Immunoscore for response to adjuvant chemotherapy duration. These results highlight the clinical utility of Immunoscore. In its latest edition, the World Health Organization classification of Digestive System Tumors introduced for the first time the immune response as an essential and desirable diagnostic criterion for colorectal cancer. Within the tumor microenvironment, the immune response provides an important estimate of the risk of recurrence and death in colon cancer. The international validation of the prognostic value of the consensus Immunoscore together with its prognostic value in the N0147 trial and its predictive utility for response to chemotherapy in stage III patients provide valuable information for patient management.
Evidence suggests that epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-activation status may better predict the clinical behaviour of colon cancers than does EGFR expression. However, the prognostic effect ...of phospho-EGFR in primary colon cancer remains undefined.
Phospho-EGFR (Tyr-1173) and EGFR expression were analysed by immunohistochemistry (IHC) in tissue microarrays of TNM stage II and III colon cancers from completed adjuvant therapy trials (n=388). Staining intensity was scored and correlated with clinicopathological variables, DNA mismatch repair (MMR) status, rates of cell proliferation (Ki-67), apoptosis (caspase-3), and patient survival.
Phospho-EGFR expression was detected in 157 of 388 (40%) tumours, whereas EGFR was found in 214 of 361 (59%). Although phospho-EGFR was unrelated to clinicopathological variables, strong EGFR intensity was associated with higher tumour stage (P=0.03). Tumours overexpressing EGFR (P=0.0002) or phospho-EGFR (P=0.015) showed increased Ki-67, but not caspase-3 expression. Phospho-EGFR was not prognostic. EGFR intensity was associated with worse disease-free survival (DFS) (hazard ratio (HR): 1.21 (1.03, 1.41); P=0.019) and overall survival (OS) (HR: 1.19 (1.02, 1.39); P=0.028). Tumours expressing both EGFR and phospho-EGFR had similar survival as EGFR alone. Stage and lymph node number were prognostic for DFS and OS, and histological grade for OS. EGFR was an independent predictor of DFS (P=0.042) after adjustment for stage, histological grade, age, and MMR status.
Phospho-EGFR and EGFR expression were associated with tumour cell hyperproliferation. Phospho-EGFR was not prognostic, whereas increased EGFR intensity was independently associated with poor DFS.
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