In this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns, ...with associated measures of uncertainty, of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration within a cohort projection model. The methodology may be adapted to handle different data types and sources of information. To illustrate, we analyze time series data for the United Kingdom and forecast the components of population change to the year 2024. We also compare the results obtained from different forecast models for age-specific fertility, mortality, and migration, hi doing so, we demonstrate the flexibility and advantages of adopting the Bayesian approach for population forecasting and highlight areas where this work could be extended.
CONTEXT Clinicians and trialists have difficulty with identifying which patients are highest risk for cardiovascular events. Prior ischemic events, polyvascular disease, and diabetes mellitus have ...all been identified as predictors of ischemic events, but their comparative contributions to future risk remain unclear. OBJECTIVE To categorize the risk of cardiovascular events in stable outpatients with various initial manifestations of atherothrombosis using simple clinical descriptors. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS Outpatients with coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, or peripheral arterial disease or with multiple risk factors for atherothrombosis were enrolled in the global Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) Registry and were followed up for as long as 4 years. Patients from 3647 centers in 29 countries were enrolled between 2003 and 2004 and followed up until 2008. Final database lock was in April 2009. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Rates of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke. RESULTS A total of 45 227 patients with baseline data were included in this 4-year analysis. During the follow-up period, a total of 5481 patients experienced at least 1 event, including 2315 with cardiovascular death, 1228 with myocardial infarction, 1898 with stroke, and 40 with both a myocardial infarction and stroke on the same day. Among patients with atherothrombosis, those with a prior history of ischemic events at baseline (n = 21 890) had the highest rate of subsequent ischemic events (18.3%; 95% confidence interval CI, 17.4%-19.1%); patients with stable coronary, cerebrovascular, or peripheral artery disease (n = 15 264) had a lower risk (12.2%; 95% CI, 11.4%-12.9%); and patients without established atherothrombosis but with risk factors only (n = 8073) had the lowest risk (9.1%; 95% CI, 8.3%-9.9%) (P < .001 for all comparisons). In addition, in multivariable modeling, the presence of diabetes (hazard ratio HR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.36-1.53; P < .001), an ischemic event in the previous year (HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.57-1.85; P < .001), and polyvascular disease (HR, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.78-2.24; P < .001) each were associated with a significantly higher risk of the primary end point. CONCLUSION Clinical descriptors can assist clinicians in identifying high-risk patients within the broad range of risk for outpatients with atherothrombosis.
The ColoREctal Wellbeing (CREW) study is the first study to prospectively recruit colorectal cancer (CRC) patients, carry out the baseline assessment pre-treatment and follow patients up over five ...years to delineate the impact of treatment on health and wellbeing.
CRC patients received questionnaires at baseline (pre-surgery), 3, 9, 15, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months. The primary outcome was Quality of Life in Adult Cancer Survivors (QLACS); self-efficacy, mental health, social support, affect, socio-demographics, clinical and treatment characteristics were also assessed. Representativeness was evaluated. Predictors at baseline and at 24 months of subsequent worsened quality of life (QOL) were identified using multivariable regression models.
A representative cohort of 1017 non-metastatic CRC patients were recruited from 29 UK cancer centres. Around one third did not return to pre-surgery levels of QOL five years after treatment. Baseline factors associated with worsened QOL included >2 comorbidities, neoadjuvant treatment, high negative affect and low levels of self-efficacy, social support and positive affect. Predictors at 24 months included older age, low positive affect, high negative affect, fatigue and poor cognitive functioning.
Some risk factors for poor outcome up to five years following CRC surgery, such as self-efficacy, social support and comorbidity management, are amenable to change. Assessment of these factors from diagnosis to identify those most likely to need support in their recovery is warranted. Early intervention has the potential to improve outcomes.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Abstract Background Prediction models for cardiovascular events and cardiovascular death in patients with established cardiovascular disease are not generally available. Methods Participants from the ...prospective REduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) Registry provided a global outpatient population with known cardiovascular disease at entry. Cardiovascular prediction models were estimated from the 2-year follow-up data of 49,689 participants from around the world. Results A developmental prediction model was estimated from 33,419 randomly selected participants (2394 cardiovascular events with 1029 cardiovascular deaths) from the pool of 49,689. The number of vascular beds with clinical disease, diabetes, smoking, low body mass index, history of atrial fibrillation, cardiac failure, and history of cardiovascular event(s) <1 year before baseline examination increased risk of a subsequent cardiovascular event. Statin (hazard ratio 0.75; 95% confidence interval, 0.69-0.82) and acetylsalicylic acid therapy (hazard ratio 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.83-0.99) also were significantly associated with reduced risk of cardiovascular events. The prediction model was validated in the remaining 16,270 REACH subjects (1172 cardiovascular events, 494 cardiovascular deaths). Risk of cardiovascular death was similarly estimated with the same set of risk factors. Simple algorithms were developed for prediction of overall cardiovascular events and for cardiovascular death. Conclusions This study establishes and validates a risk model to predict secondary cardiovascular events and cardiovascular death in outpatients with established atherothrombotic disease. Traditional risk factors, burden of disease, lack of treatment, and geographic location all are related to an increased risk of subsequent cardiovascular morbidity and cardiovascular mortality.
Despite the known association of diabetes mellitus with cardiovascular events, there are few contemporary data on the long-term outcomes from international cohorts of patients with diabetes mellitus. ...We sought to describe cardiovascular outcomes at 4 years and to identify predictors of these events in patients with diabetes mellitus.
The Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) registry is an international registry of patients at high risk of atherothrombosis or established atherothrombosis. Four-year event rates in patients with diabetes mellitus were determined with the corrected group prognosis method. Of the 45 227 patients in the REACH registry who had follow-up at 4 years, 43.6% (n=19 699) had diabetes mellitus at baseline. The overall risk and hazard ratio (HR) of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke were greater in patients with diabetes compared with patients without diabetes (16.5% versus 13.1%; adjusted HR, 1.27; 95% confidence interval CI 1.19-1.35). There was also an increase in both cardiovascular death (8.9% versus 6.0%; adjusted HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.26-1.52) and overall death (14.3% versus 9.9%; adjusted HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.30-1.51). Diabetes mellitus was associated with a 33% greater risk of hospitalization for heart failure (9.4% versus 5.9%; adjusted odds ratio, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.18-1.50). In patients with diabetes mellitus, heart failure at baseline was independently associated with cardiovascular death (adjusted HR, 2.45; 95% CI, 2.17-2.77; P<0.001) and hospitalization for heart failure (adjusted odds ratio, 4.72; 95% CI, 4.22-5.29; P<0.001).
Diabetes mellitus substantially increases the risk of death, ischemic events, and heart failure. Patients with both diabetes mellitus and heart failure are at particularly elevated risk of cardiovascular death, highlighting the need for additional therapies in this high-risk population.
Venous thromboembolism is a significant cause of mortality
, yet its genetic determinants are incompletely defined. We performed a discovery genome-wide association study in the Million Veteran ...Program and UK Biobank, with testing of approximately 13 million DNA sequence variants for association with venous thromboembolism (26,066 cases and 624,053 controls) and meta-analyzed both studies, followed by independent replication with up to 17,672 venous thromboembolism cases and 167,295 controls. We identified 22 previously unknown loci, bringing the total number of venous thromboembolism-associated loci to 33, and subsequently fine-mapped these associations. We developed a genome-wide polygenic risk score for venous thromboembolism that identifies 5% of the population at an equivalent incident venous thromboembolism risk to carriers of the established factor V Leiden p.R506Q and prothrombin G20210A mutations. Our data provide mechanistic insights into the genetic epidemiology of venous thromboembolism and suggest a greater overlap among venous and arterial cardiovascular disease than previously thought.
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