Protected areas (PAs) have been established to conserve tropical forests, but their effectiveness at reducing deforestation is uncertain. To explore this issue, we combined high resolution data of ...global forest loss over the period 2000-2012 with data on PAs. For each PA we quantified forest loss within the PA, in buffer zones 1, 5, 10 and 15 km outside the PA boundary as well as a 1 km buffer within the PA boundary. We analysed 3376 tropical and subtropical moist forest PAs in 56 countries over 4 continents. We found that 73% of PAs experienced substantial deforestation pressure, with >0.1% a(-1) forest loss in the outer 1 km buffer. Forest loss within PAs was greatest in Asia (0.25% a(-1)) compared to Africa (0.1% a(-1)), the Neotropics (0.1% a(-1)) and Australasia (Australia and Papua New Guinea; 0.03% a(-1)). We defined performance (P) of a PA as the ratio of forest loss in the inner 1 km buffer compared to the loss that would have occurred in the absence of the PA, calculated as the loss in the outer 1 km buffer corrected for any difference in deforestation pressure between the two buffers. To remove the potential bias due to terrain, we analysed a subset of PAs (n = 1804) where slope and elevation in inner and outer 1 km buffers were similar (within 1° and 100 m, respectively). We found 41% of PAs in this subset reduced forest loss in the inner buffer by at least 25% compared to the expected inner buffer forest loss (P<0.75). Median performance (P) of subset reserves was 0.87, meaning a reduction in forest loss within the PA of 13%. We found PAs were most effective in Australasia (P = 0.16), moderately successful in the Neotropics (P = 0.72) and Africa (p = 0.83), but ineffective in Asia (P = 1). We found many countries have PAs that give little or no protection to forest loss, particularly in parts of Asia, west Africa and central America. Across the tropics, the median effectiveness of PAs at the national level improved with gross domestic product per capita. Whilst tropical and subtropical moist forest PAs do reduce forest loss, widely varying performance suggests substantial opportunities for improved protection, particularly in Asia.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
China's rapid industrialisation and urbanisation has led to poor air quality. The Chinese government have responded by introducing policies to reduce emissions and setting ambitious targets for ...ambient PM2.5, SO2, NO2 and O3 concentrations. Previous satellite and modelling studies indicate that concentrations of these pollutants have begun to decline within the last decade. However, prior to 2012, air quality data from ground-based monitoring stations were difficult to obtain, limited to a few locations in major cities, and often unreliable. Since then, a comprehensive monitoring network, with over 1000 stations across China has been established by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE). We use a three-year (2015-2017) dataset consisting of hourly PM2.5, O3, NO2 and SO2 concentrations obtained from the MEE, combined with similar data from Taiwan and Hong Kong. We find that at 53% and 59% of stations, PM2.5 and SO2 concentrations have decreased significantly, with median rates across all stations of −3.4 and −1.9 g m−3 year−1 respectively. At 50% of stations, O3 maximum daily 8 h mean (MDA8) concentrations have increased significantly, with median rates across all stations of 4.6 g m−3 year−1. It will be important to understand the relative contribution of changing anthropogenic emissions and meteorology to the changes in air pollution reported here.
Vegetation affects precipitation patterns by mediating moisture, energy and trace-gas fluxes between the surface and atmosphere. When forests are replaced by pasture or crops, evapotranspiration of ...moisture from soil and vegetation is often diminished, leading to reduced atmospheric humidity and potentially suppressing precipitation. Climate models predict that large-scale tropical deforestation causes reduced regional precipitation, although the magnitude of the effect is model and resolution dependent. In contrast, observational studies have linked deforestation to increased precipitation locally but have been unable to explore the impact of large-scale deforestation. Here we use satellite remote-sensing data of tropical precipitation and vegetation, combined with simulated atmospheric transport patterns, to assess the pan-tropical effect of forests on tropical rainfall. We find that for more than 60 per cent of the tropical land surface (latitudes 30 degrees south to 30 degrees north), air that has passed over extensive vegetation in the preceding few days produces at least twice as much rain as air that has passed over little vegetation. We demonstrate that this empirical correlation is consistent with evapotranspiration maintaining atmospheric moisture in air that passes over extensive vegetation. We combine these empirical relationships with current trends of Amazonian deforestation to estimate reductions of 12 and 21 per cent in wet-season and dry-season precipitation respectively across the Amazon basin by 2050, due to less-efficient moisture recycling. Our observation-based results complement similar estimates from climate models, in which the physical mechanisms and feedbacks at work could be explored in more detail.
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Dostopno za:
DOBA, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud droplet concentrations and radiative properties is the source of one of the largest uncertainties in the radiative forcing of climate over the industrial ...period. This uncertainty affects our ability to estimate how sensitive the climate is to greenhouse gas emissions. Here we perform a sensitivity analysis on a global model to quantify the uncertainty in cloud radiative forcing over the industrial period caused by uncertainties in aerosol emissions and processes. Our results show that 45 per cent of the variance of aerosol forcing since about 1750 arises from uncertainties in natural emissions of volcanic sulphur dioxide, marine dimethylsulphide, biogenic volatile organic carbon, biomass burning and sea spray. Only 34 per cent of the variance is associated with anthropogenic emissions. The results point to the importance of understanding pristine pre-industrial-like environments, with natural aerosols only, and suggest that improved measurements and evaluation of simulated aerosols in polluted present-day conditions will not necessarily result in commensurate reductions in the uncertainty of forcing estimates.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Tropical montane forests (TMFs) are recognized for the provision of hydrological services and the protection of biodiversity, but their role in carbon storage is not well understood. We synthesized ...published observations (n = 94) of above-ground biomass (AGB) from forest inventory plots in TMFs (defined here as forests between 23.5° N and 23.5° S with elevations ≥ 1000 m a.s.l.). We found that mean (median) AGB in TMFs is 271 (254) t per hectare of land surface. We demonstrate that AGB declines moderately with both elevation and slope angle but that TMFs store substantial amounts of biomass, both at high elevations (up to 3500 m) and on steep slopes (slope angles of up to 40°). We combined remotely sensed data sets of forest cover with high resolution data of elevation to show that 75% of the global planimetric (horizontal) area of TMF are on steep slopes (slope angles greater than 27°). We used our remote sensed data sets to demonstrate that this prevalence of steep slopes results in the global land surface area of TMF (1.22 million km2) being 40% greater than the planimetric area that is the usual basis for reporting global land surface areas and remotely sensed data. Our study suggests that TMFs are likely to be a greater store of carbon than previously thought, highlighting the need for conservation of the remaining montane forests.
The literature on atmospheric particulate matter (PM), or atmospheric aerosol, has increased enormously over the last 2 decades and amounts now to some 1500-2000 papers per year in the refereed ...literature. This is in part due to the enormous advances in measurement technologies, which have allowed for an increasingly accurate understanding of the chemical composition and of the physical properties of atmospheric particles and of their processes in the atmosphere. The growing scientific interest in atmospheric aerosol particles is due to their high importance for environmental policy. In fact, particulate matter constitutes one of the most challenging problems both for air quality and for climate change policies. In this context, this paper reviews the most recent results within the atmospheric aerosol sciences and the policy needs, which have driven much of the increase in monitoring and mechanistic research over the last 2 decades. The synthesis reveals many new processes and developments in the science underpinning climate-aerosol interactions and effects of PM on human health and the environment. However, while airborne particulate matter is responsible for globally important influences on premature human mortality, we still do not know the relative importance of the different chemical components of PM for these effects. Likewise, the magnitude of the overall effects of PM on climate remains highly uncertain. Despite the uncertainty there are many things that could be done to mitigate local and global problems of atmospheric PM. Recent analyses have shown that reducing black carbon (BC) emissions, using known control measures, would reduce global warming and delay the time when anthropogenic effects on global temperature would exceed 2 °C. Likewise, cost-effective control measures on ammonia, an important agricultural precursor gas for secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA), would reduce regional eutrophication and PM concentrations in large areas of Europe, China and the USA. Thus, there is much that could be done to reduce the effects of atmospheric PM on the climate and the health of the environment and the human population. A prioritized list of actions to mitigate the full range of effects of PM is currently undeliverable due to shortcomings in the knowledge of aerosol science; among the shortcomings, the roles of PM in global climate and the relative roles of different PM precursor sources and their response to climate and land use change over the remaining decades of this century are prominent. In any case, the evidence from this paper strongly advocates for an integrated approach to air quality and climate policies.
We completed a meta‐analysis of regional and global climate model simulations (n = 96) of the impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall. Across all simulations, mean (±1σ) change in ...annual mean Amazon basin rainfall was −12 ± 11%. Variability in simulated rainfall was not explained by differences in model resolution or surface parameters. Across all simulations we find a negative linear relationship between rainfall and deforestation extent, although individual studies often simulate a nonlinear response. Using the linear relationship, we estimate that deforestation in 2010 has reduced annual mean rainfall across the Amazon basin by 1.8 ± 0.3%, less than the interannual variability in observed rainfall. This may explain why a reduction in Amazon rainfall has not consistently been observed. We estimate that business‐as‐usual deforestation (based on deforestation rates prior to 2004) would lead to an 8.1 ± 1.4% reduction in annual mean Amazon basin rainfall by 2050, greater than natural variability.
Key Points
Deforestation of the Amazon likely to lead to reductions in regional rainfall
Current deforestation extent estimated to reduce annual rainfall across Amazon basin by 1.8%
By 2050, deforestation estimated to reduce annual rainfall by 8.1%, greater than natural variability
Primary biological aerosol particles (PBAPs) may play an important role in aerosol–climate interactions, in particular by affecting ice formation in mixed phase clouds. However, the role of PBAPs is ...poorly understood because the sources and distribution of PBAPs in the atmosphere are not well quantified. Here we include emissions of fungal spores and bacteria in a global aerosol microphysics model and explore their contribution to concentrations of supermicron particle number, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and immersion freezing rates. Simulated surface annual mean concentrations of fungal spores are ~ 2.5 × 104 m−3 over continental midlatitudes and 1 × 105 m−3 over tropical forests. Simulated surface concentrations of bacteria are 2.5 × 104 m−3 over most continental regions and 5 × 104 m−3 over grasslands of central Asia and North America. These simulated surface number concentrations of fungal spores and bacteria are broadly in agreement with the limited available observations. We find that fungal spores and bacteria contribute 8 and 5% respectively to simulated continental surface mean supermicron number concentrations, but have very limited impact on CCN concentrations, altering regional concentrations by less than 1%. In agreement with previous global modelling studies, we find that fungal spores and bacteria contribute very little (3 × 10−3%, even when we assume upper limits for ice nucleation activity) to global average immersion freezing ice nucleation rates, which are dominated by soot and dust. However, at lower altitudes (400 to 600 hPa), where warmer temperatures mean that soot and dust may not nucleate ice, we find that PBAP controls the immersion freezing ice nucleation rate. This demonstrates that PBAPs can be of regional importance for IN formation, in agreement with case study observations.
In the Scottish uplands, prescribed burning of moorland vegetation is widely practised either to boost gamebird numbers for recreational shooting or to improve livestock grazing. In recent years, ...this system of land management has become controversial due to concerns over the potential impacts on ecosystem services. However, there are limited data on the extent, distribution or frequency of burning and it is unclear whether there are long‐term trends in burning. Crucially, the extent of burning on peat soils is not well known.
We used a time series of Landsat imagery covering 7750 km2 of moorland in Eastern Scotland to detect annual variation in area burnt from 1985 to 2022. Burnt areas were detected using annual changes in Normalised Burn Ratio.
An accuracy evaluation conducted over eight sites covering 415 km2 using a combination of Google Earth imagery, and field studies suggested a user's accuracy of 90% and a producer's accuracy of 77%.
We estimate an average annual mean area burnt of 61 km2 with large interannual variability and no significant change in area burnt over the 38‐year study period. We estimate that 32% of burning (19 km2 year−1) occurred on deep peat soils with no reduction in burning on deep peat after the revision of national guidelines (the Muirburn Code) in 2017 recommended ceasing this practice.
We find that in Eastern Scotland there has been no significant change in moorland area burnt over the last four decades. The fractional area burnt that is on deep peat is a matter of management concern.
Muirburn is a traditional method of burning old‐growth heather to promote fresh growth. In a satellite study of Eastern Scotland over the past four decades, we found no significant change in the area of moorland burnt, with deep peat accounting for a large fraction of burn area throughout.
We investigate the impact of climate change on wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations in the western United States. We regress observed area burned onto observed meteorological ...fields and fire indices from the Canadian Fire Weather Index system and find that May–October mean temperature and fuel moisture explain 24–57% of the variance in annual area burned in this region. Applying meteorological fields calculated by a general circulation model (GCM) to our regression model, we show that increases in temperature cause annual mean area burned in the western United States to increase by 54% by the 2050s relative to the present day. Changes in area burned are ecosystem dependent, with the forests of the Pacific Northwest and Rocky Mountains experiencing the greatest increases of 78 and 175%, respectively. Increased area burned results in near doubling of wildfire carbonaceous aerosol emissions by midcentury. Using a chemical transport model driven by meteorology from the same GCM, we calculate that climate change will increase summertime organic carbon (OC) aerosol concentrations over the western United States by 40% and elemental carbon (EC) concentrations by 20% from 2000 to 2050. Most of this increase (75% for OC and 95% for EC) is caused by larger wildfire emissions with the rest caused by changes in meteorology and for OC by increased monoterpene emissions in a warmer climate. Such an increase in carbonaceous aerosol would have important consequences for western U.S. air quality and visibility.
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