Assessment based on representative farms is an established approach in the modern assessment of the effects of changes in agricultural policy. In line with previous CAP reforms, we can expect income ...redistribution impacts also with the implementation of the legislative and financial framework of the CAP for the next period. This paper discusses a scenario analysis using the farm model. The model is based on linear programming, which enables to address various technological challenges at farm level. We formed the scenarios for the analysis following the example of the scenarios contained in the impact assessment that the European Commission prepared for the CAP after 2020. The analysis involves selected farm types from selected sectors. The results suggest that the expected reduction in the envelope will generally lead to lower farm-level revenues from CAP direct payments. Consequently, economic performance will deteriorate, what is likely to be amplified in some sectors by the abolition of historical payments. The range of consequences at farm level will likely be considerable, especially for sectors and production types with a high share of CAP payments in the structure of total farm income. In certain sectors, however, there is even an improvement regarding the current situation.
Agriculture is a complex system in which the economic principles of production are directly intertwined with its biological and ecological characteristics. The paper investigates synergetic ...potentials of multiple-criteria and multiple-perspective evaluation of agricultural activity through a study of the dairy sector in Slovenia. Socio-economic and emergy evaluation was performed on nine farm types, formulated to represent the diversity of the country's dairy sector. The results indicate larger discrepancies in the performance of the farm types when defined by socio-economic or emergy based indicators. Standard socio-economic evaluation favours larger conventional systems that are cost efficient and financially independent. Emergy analysis however, favours less productive organic farms, which show greater ability to exploit free local resources and produce less stress on the local environment. Socio-economic and emergy indicators show that small conventional farm types are the poorest performers overall. Analysis of emergy flows reveals for all farm types a high dependency on the wider socio-economic system, suggesting that within the current economic system agriculture itself has little ability to affect its sustainability. The paper suggests a complementarity in the evaluation approaches. Their joint application can improve the quality of the decision-making process in various stages of planning in agriculture and land use.
•Socio-economic and emergy performance was assessed for nine dairy farm types.•Larger and intensive farm types perform favourably in socio-economic terms.•Smaller and organic farm types show better biophysical performance.•Integrated approach provides valuable inputs for agricultural and land use planning.•Improvement potentials are limited within the current economic system.
Za presojo učinkov integracijskih in reformnih procesov na kmetijske trge smo razvili model dinamičnega rekurzivnega sintetičnega delnega ravnovesja. Serije posameznih enačb predstavljajo trge za ...žita in živinorejo ter tvorijo medsebojno povezan sistem, v katerem iščemo rešitev za vsak proizvod skozi bilanco zunanje trgovine. Domače cene so preko enačb prenosa cen vezane na reprezentativne cene v Evropski uniji (EU) in skupaj z aktualnimi instrumenti kmetijske politike določajo raven proizvodnje in porabe posameznih proizvodov. Parametri v enačbah so večinoma izkustveno ocenjeni zaradi nezadostnih in nezanesljivih podatkov. Model smo testirali za makedonsko (FYRM) kmetijstvo. Navkljub omenjenim pomanjkljivostim se je celoten sistem izkazal za odzivnega na zunanje spremembe ob upoštevanju bioloških in ekonomskih omejitev. Izhodiščna projekcija predvideva nadaljevanje aktualne nacionalne kmetijske politike, ki temelji na proizvodno vezanih plačilih in cenah, ki sledijo trendom v EU. Scenarijska analiza zajema tri različice možnih učinkov pristopa FYRM k EU v letu 2015. Pri scenariju postopne prilagoditve cen se proizvodnja vseh kmetijskih proizvodov poveča, njihova poraba pa zmanjša zaradi višjih cen. Izjema je le svinjina zaradi visokih izhodiščnih cen, kar se odrazi v nasprotnih učinkih. Drugi scenarij predvideva prevzem skupne kmetijske politike (SKP) s proizvodno nevezanimi ukrepi in izrazito večjim kmetijskim proračunom. Tudi v tem primeru se proizvodnja vseh kmetijskih proizvodov z izjemo svinjine poveča. To po drugi strani vodi do znatnega povečanja povpraševanja po krmi, medtem ko povpraševanje po mesu ostane skorajda nespremenjeno. Najbolj verjetno se zdi sočasno delovanje obeh omenjenih scenarijev. V tem primeru se učinki obeh ločenih scenarijev združijo, pojavi se le nekaj manjših odstopanj zaradi medsebojnih interakcij med proučevanimi proizvodi.
Paper presents developed spreadsheet tool for dairy cow ration formulation It is constructed on the basis of two linked modules in MS Excel platform, merging common linear programming and weighted ...goal programming model with penalty functions. The frst module estimates the least-cost magnitude that might be expected. Obtained result enters into the second module as goal that should be met as close as possible. The tool was tested at two different values of preferential weights for dairy cow with 20 kg daily milk yield. Obtained results confrm benefts of applied methodology since one is enabled to formulate least-cost ration and simultaneously overcome major drawbacks of LP approach. Besides fne tuning of set goals rational violence is enabled through penalty function system. As result calculated ration is more effcient both from economic and nutritive point of view.
In this perspective analysis, we strive to answer the following question: how can we advance integrative biology research in the 21st century with lessons from animal science? At the University of ...Ljubljana, Biotechnical Faculty, Department of Animal Science, we share here our three lessons learned in the two decades from 2002 to 2022 that we believe could inform integrative biology, systems science, and animal science scholarship in other countries and geographies. Cultivating multiomics knowledge through a conceptual lens of integrative biology is crucial for life sciences research that can stand the test of diverse biological, clinical, and ecological contexts. Moreover, in an era of the current COVID-19 pandemic, animal nutrition and animal science, and the study of their interactions with human health (and vice versa) through integrative biology approaches hold enormous prospects and significance for systems medicine and ecosystem health.
Namen prispevka je prikazati možnost kombiniranja različnih matematičnih metod za analiziranje sestave krmnih obrokov v danih okoliščinah. Z matematičnimi modeli, ki temeljijo na omejeni ...optimizaciji, smo proučevali cenovno-stroškovna razmerja v obdobju 1998 do 2008 in iskali morebitne spremembe v sestavi racionalnih krmnih obrokov za goveje pitance. Za analizo smo uporabili normativne in pozitivne matematične metode. S pomočjo klasičnega linearnega programa, nadgrajenega s tehtanim ciljnim programom, smo izvedli normativno analizo. Da bi ugotovili, kako bi se v danih razmerah odločal povprečen rejec, pa smo simulacijo izvedli tudi s pozitivnim matematičnim programiranjem. Dobljeni rezultati kažejo, da se je sestava racionalnega krmnega obroka v zadnjih desetih letih nagnila v prid koruzne silaže, izrazito pa se je zmanjšala količina travne silaže v obroku. Zaradi naravnih danosti v Sloveniji take spremembe niso izvedljive, zato bomo morali več pozornosti posvetiti zniževanju stroškov pridelave travne silaže.
Analysing economic efficiency of farm production always faces a problem of insufficient information. This is particularly true when the analysis is performed on the reference farm where estimates are ...based on the average aggregated data. The paper illustrates how the combination of different mathematical programming methods could be efficiently used to analyse the farm-production plan with the lack of the on-farm accounting data. The utilised approach shows how the holistic analysis of production planning as a multi-criteria problem could be conducted. The estimation of the missing information and the disaggregation of the endogenous farm data is enabled through different models that are based on the constrained optimisation. The developed models are linked into the spreadsheet modular tool enabling systematic analyses of the farm decision making under risky conditions. Illustration of the modular tool application is given via the analyses of three hypothetic dairy farms. The obtained results indicate that the developed approach enables holistic analyses of the production planning. The methodology applied provides also important information for the measures aimed to increase efficiency as well as to benchmarking the performance of different farm types. The results point to a discrepancy between the solutions obtained through different objective functions and shows the advantage of the multi-criteria approach.
This paper describes the development of modeling tools to simulate the effects of agricultural policy changes in new member states (NMSs) of the European Union and presents results of a modeling ...exercise. Partial equilibrium models simulate policy change scenarios, such as accession to the European Union, as well as other policy developments and external conditions, such as changes in exchange or economic growth rates. Results show the effects of policy change on the main agricultural product markets for a ten-year horizon. In particular, NMSs gain from higher prices and budgetary support. Projections for most sectors show real improvements on recent production levels, but less so when compared with the production of the late 1980s and early 1990s. Accession supports orientation toward crop production, for which Central and East European countries (CEECs) become important net exporters. Livestock production would also benefit from accession, with beef and pork most likely to exhibit appreciable growth, driven by higher, postaccession prices. Production growth in the dairy sector is more limited under the accession scenario than under the baseline, due to milk quota introduction. Scenario results indicate that, in the aggregate, CEEC agriculture has less favorable growth potential if it remains outside the European Union and retains the policy instruments in place before accession.
Analizirali smo primernost in ekonomske razsežnosti morebitnega izvajanja ukrepa zgodnjega upokojevanja v Sloveniji. Uporabili smo pristop simulacijske analize s pomočjo različnih scenarijev ...izvajanja ukrepa, ki upoštevajo starostno strukturo kmetijskih gospodarjev, njihov socialni položaj in kmetijske površine v njihovi obdelavi. Odzivnost gospodarjev na morebitno uvedbo ukrepa smo ocenili s pomočjo ankete, kar nam je skupaj s strukturo kmetij potencialnih upravičencev za ukrep omogočilo izdelavo ocene finančnih razsežnosti njegovega izvajanja. Ukrep zgodnjega upokojevanja bi lahko precej pospešil generacijsko zamenjavo gospodarjev, manj učinkovit pa bi bil pri izboljšanju velikostne strukture kmetijskih gospodarstev. Povprečni stroški prenosa kmetijskih zemljišč bi znašali med 500 in 700 € ha–1 letno, pri povprečnem obdobju izplačevanja rente najmanj 10 let. Računamo lahko, da bi s sredstvi v višini 20 do 25 mio € letno v nekajletnem začetnem obdobju izvajanja ukrepa za prenos sprostili 30 do 35 tisoč ha kmetijskih zemljišč. Pri manjših razpoložljivih sredstvih bi bil učinek manjši, vendar ne sorazmerno, saj bi bil pri strožje postavljenih kriterijih prenos zemljišč lahko cenejši – bolj učinkovit. Ukrep zgodnjega upokojevanja bi bil v slovenskih razmerah zaradi razdrobljene velikostne strukture kmetij in z njim povezanim majhnim prenosom zemljišč na posameznega prenosnika razmeroma drag. Ob predvidoma 75–80 % sofinanciranju ukrepa iz Evropskega usmerjevalnega in jamstvenega sklada pa vseeno kaže možnosti ukrepa čim bolj izkoristiti.
Linear programming model has been developed and applied to the hypothetical agricultural holding in the hilly part of Slovenia in order to find optimal production plans by maximizing total gross ...margins. The model covers especially those sectors of Slovenian agriculture, for which the most drastic changes due to the actual reform of CAP in the field of direct payments – in Slovenia implemented in 2007 – are anticipated. On the basis of developed model the economic impacts of CAP reform and importance of agri-environmental measures have been evaluated. Model results lead to the conclusion that the reform will have the most unfavorable impacts for agricultural holdings with intensive production practice, especially those with animal production activities which are under the standard scheme eligible for relatively high production coupled direct payments (up to 70% of achieved total gross margin). Negative impacts of the reform can be mitigated by combining different production activities and technologies. Economic results markedly improve (up to 28%) if farming management complies with agri-environmental measures.
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