In December 2013, the first locally-acquired chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infections in the Americas were reported in the Caribbean. As of May 16, 55,992 cases had been reported and the outbreak was ...still spreading. Identification of newly affected locations is paramount to intervention activities, but challenging due to limitations of current data on the outbreak and on CHIKV transmission. We developed models to make probabilistic predictions of spread based on current data considering these limitations.
Branching process models capturing travel patterns, local infection prevalence, climate dependent transmission factors, and associated uncertainty estimates were developed to predict probable locations for the arrival of CHIKV-infected travelers and for the initiation of local transmission. Many international cities and areas close to where transmission has already occurred were likely to have received infected travelers. Of the ten locations predicted to be the most likely locations for introduced CHIKV transmission in the first four months of the outbreak, eight had reported local cases by the end of April. Eight additional locations were likely to have had introduction leading to local transmission in April, but with substantial uncertainty.
Branching process models can characterize the risk of CHIKV introduction and spread during the ongoing outbreak. Local transmission of CHIKV is currently likely in several Caribbean locations and possible, though uncertain, for other locations in the continental United States, Central America, and South America. This modeling framework may also be useful for other outbreaks where the risk of pathogen spread over heterogeneous transportation networks must be rapidly assessed on the basis of limited information.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Chikungunya fever is an acute febrile illness associated with severe, often debilitating polyarthralgias. The disease is caused by Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), an arthropod-borne virus that is ...transmitted to humans primarily via the bite of an infected mosquito. Since a re-emergence of CHIKV in 2004, the virus has spread into novel locations, such as Europe, and has led to millions of cases of disease throughout countries in and around the Indian Ocean. The risk of importation of CHIKV into new areas is ever present because of the high attack rates associated with the recurring epidemics, the high levels of viremia in infected humans, and the worldwide distribution of the vectors responsible for transmitting CHIKV. In this review, we will characterize the epidemiology and global expansion of CHIKV, describe the clinical features and laboratory testing for the disease, and discuss priorities for further studies needed for effective disease control and prevention.
Yellow fever is a vector-borne disease affecting humans and non-human primates in tropical areas of Africa and South America. While eradication is not feasible due to the wildlife reservoir, large ...scale vaccination activities in Africa during the 1940s to 1960s reduced yellow fever incidence for several decades. However, after a period of low vaccination coverage, yellow fever has resurged in the continent. Since 2006 there has been substantial funding for large preventive mass vaccination campaigns in the most affected countries in Africa to curb the rising burden of disease and control future outbreaks. Contemporary estimates of the yellow fever disease burden are lacking, and the present study aimed to update the previous estimates on the basis of more recent yellow fever occurrence data and improved estimation methods.
Generalised linear regression models were fitted to a dataset of the locations of yellow fever outbreaks within the last 25 years to estimate the probability of outbreak reports across the endemic zone. Environmental variables and indicators for the surveillance quality in the affected countries were used as covariates. By comparing probabilities of outbreak reports estimated in the regression with the force of infection estimated for a limited set of locations for which serological surveys were available, the detection probability per case and the force of infection were estimated across the endemic zone. The yellow fever burden in Africa was estimated for the year 2013 as 130,000 (95% CI 51,000-380,000) cases with fever and jaundice or haemorrhage including 78,000 (95% CI 19,000-180,000) deaths, taking into account the current level of vaccination coverage. The impact of the recent mass vaccination campaigns was assessed by evaluating the difference between the estimates obtained for the current vaccination coverage and for a hypothetical scenario excluding these vaccination campaigns. Vaccination campaigns were estimated to have reduced the number of cases and deaths by 27% (95% CI 22%-31%) across the region, achieving up to an 82% reduction in countries targeted by these campaigns. A limitation of our study is the high level of uncertainty in our estimates arising from the sparseness of data available from both surveillance and serological surveys.
With the estimation method presented here, spatial estimates of transmission intensity can be combined with vaccination coverage levels to evaluate the impact of past or proposed vaccination campaigns, thereby helping to allocate resources efficiently for yellow fever control. This method has been used by the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI Alliance) to estimate the potential impact of future vaccination campaigns.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
As of early August, more than half a million cases of chikungunya virus infection had been reported in the Americas. The rapid spread is probably attributable to a lack of population immunity and the ...broad distribution in the Americas of vectors capable of transmitting the virus.
In December 2013, the first local transmission of chikungunya virus in the Western Hemisphere was reported, beginning with autochthonous cases in Saint Martin. Since then, local transmission has been reported in 31 countries or territories throughout the Americas, including locations in the United States and its territories (Florida, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands) (see figure). As of August 8, 2014, a total of 576,535 suspected and laboratory-confirmed chikungunya cases had been reported in the Americas, a case count that had nearly doubled over the previous month (see interactive graphic, available with the full text of this article at . . .
IMPORTANCE: Zika virus infection can be prenatally passed from a pregnant woman to her fetus. There is sufficient evidence to conclude that intrauterine Zika virus infection is a cause of ...microcephaly and serious brain anomalies, but the full spectrum of anomalies has not been delineated. To inform pediatric clinicians who may be called on to evaluate and treat affected infants and children, we review the most recent evidence to better characterize congenital Zika syndrome. OBSERVATIONS: We reviewed published reports of congenital anomalies occurring in fetuses or infants with presumed or laboratory-confirmed intrauterine Zika virus infection. We conducted a comprehensive search of the English literature using Medline and EMBASE for Zika from inception through September 30, 2016. Congenital anomalies were considered in the context of the presumed pathogenetic mechanism related to the neurotropic properties of the virus. We conclude that congenital Zika syndrome is a recognizable pattern of structural anomalies and functional disabilities secondary to central and, perhaps, peripheral nervous system damage. Although many of the components of this syndrome, such as cognitive, sensory, and motor disabilities, are shared by other congenital infections, there are 5 features that are rarely seen with other congenital infections or are unique to congenital Zika virus infection: (1) severe microcephaly with partially collapsed skull; (2) thin cerebral cortices with subcortical calcifications; (3) macular scarring and focal pigmentary retinal mottling; (4) congenital contractures; and (5) marked early hypertonia and symptoms of extrapyramidal involvement. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Although the full spectrum of adverse reproductive outcomes caused by Zika virus infection is not yet determined, a distinctive phenotype—the congenital Zika syndrome—has emerged. Recognition of this phenotype by clinicians for infants and children can help ensure appropriate etiologic evaluation and comprehensive clinical investigation to define the range of anomalies in an affected infant as well as determine essential follow-up and ongoing care.
Epidemiology of Chikungunya in the Americas Yactayo, Sergio; Staples, J. Erin; Millot, Véronique ...
The Journal of infectious diseases,
12/2016, Letnik:
214, Številka:
suppl 5
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) emerged in the Americas in late 2013 to cause substantial acute and chronic morbidity. About 1.1 million cases of chikungunya were reported within a year, including severe ...cases and deaths. The burden of chikungunya is unclear owing to inadequate disease surveillance and underdiagnosis. Virus evolution, globalization, and climate change may further CHIKV spread. No approved vaccine or antiviral therapeutics exist. Early detection and appropriate management could reduce the burden of severe atypical and chronic arthritic disease. Improved surveillance and risk assessment are needed to mitigate the impact of chikungunya.
Summary The changing epidemiology of yellow fever and continued reports of rare but serious adverse events associated with yellow fever vaccine have drawn attention to the need to revisit criteria ...for the designation of areas with risk for yellow fever virus activity, and to revise the vaccine recommendations for international travel. WHO convened a working group of international experts to review factors important for the transmission of yellow fever virus and country-specific yellow fever information, to establish criteria for additions to or removal from the list of countries with risk for yellow fever virus transmission, to update yellow fever risk maps, and to revise the recommendations for vaccination for international travel. This report details the recommendations made by the working group about criteria for the designation of risk and specific changes to the classification of areas with risk for transmission of yellow fever virus.
To counter a limited global supply of yellow fever vaccine, the use of a fractional dose of vaccine (one fifth of the standard dose) during an outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo resulted in ...immunogenicity consistent with expected protective titers at 1-month and 1-year follow-up.
Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) is a mosquito-borne alphavirus found in the eastern United States. Eastern equine encephalitis virus disease in humans is rare but can result in severe, often ...fatal, illness. This report summarizes the national EEEV surveillance data for 2003 through 2016, including human disease cases and nonhuman infections. Over the 14-year period, 633 counties from 33 states reported EEEV activity; 88% of those counties reported EEEV activity only in nonhuman species. A total of 121 human cases of EEEV disease were reported, with a median of eight cases reported annually. The national average annual incidence of EEEV neuroinvasive disease was 0.03 cases per million population. States with the highest average annual incidence included New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine, and Alabama. Eastern equine encephalitis virus neuroinvasive disease incidence was highest among males and among persons aged < 5 and > 60 years. Overall, 118 (98%) case patients were hospitalized and 50 (41%) died. The case fatality ratio was highest among case patients aged ≥ 70 years. Nonhuman surveillance data indicate that the geographic range of EEEV is much greater than human cases alone might suggest. In areas where the virus circulates, health-care providers should consider EEEV infection in the differential diagnosis for meningitis and encephalitis. Providers are encouraged to report suspected cases to their public health department to facilitate diagnosis and consider interventions to mitigate the risk of further transmission. Because human vaccines against EEEV are not available, prevention depends on community efforts to reduce mosquito populations and personal protective measures to decrease exposure to mosquitoes.
A previously healthy man from eastern Kansas, USA, sought medical care in late spring because of a history of tick bite, fever, and fatigue. The patient had thrombocytopenia and leukopenia and was ...given doxycycline for a presumed tickborne illness. His condition did not improve. Multiorgan failure developed, and he died 11 days after illness onset from cardiopulmonary arrest. Molecular and serologic testing results for known tickborne pathogens were negative. However, testing of a specimen for antibodies against Heartland virus by using plaque reduction neutralization indicated the presence of another virus. Next-generation sequencing and phylogenetic analysis identified the virus as a novel member of the genus Thogotovirus.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, ODKLJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
PDF
