This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ...(IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to 1) quantify the climate change commitment of different radiative forcing trajectories and 2) explore the extent to which climate change is reversible on human time scales. All commitment simulations follow the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their extensions to year 2300. Most EMICs simulate substantial surface air temperature and thermosteric sea level rise commitment following stabilization of the atmospheric composition at year-2300 levels. The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is weakened temporarily and recovers to near-preindustrial values in most models for RCPs 2.6–6.0. The MOC weakening is more persistent for RCP8.5. Elimination of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions after 2300 results in slowly decreasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. At year 3000 atmospheric CO₂ is still at more than half its year-2300 level in all EMICs forRCPs 4.5–8.5. Surface air temperature remains constant or decreases slightly and thermosteric sea level rise continues for centuries after elimination of CO₂ emissions in all EMICs. Restoration of atmospheric CO₂ from RCP to preindustrial levels over 100–1000 years requires large artificial removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere and does not result in the simultaneous return to preindustrial climate conditions, as surface air temperature and sea level response exhibit a substantial time lag relative to atmospheric CO₂.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in 30 models of varying complexity is examined under four distinct Representative Concentration Pathways. The models include 25 ...Atmosphere‐Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) or Earth System Models (ESMs) that submitted simulations in support of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and 5 Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs). While none of the models incorporated the additional effects of ice sheet melting, they all projected very similar behaviour during the 21st century. Over this period the strength of MOC reduced by a best estimate of 22% (18%–25%; 5%–95% confidence limits) for RCP2.6, 26% (23%–30%) for RCP4.5, 29% (23%–35%) for RCP6.0 and 40% (36%–44%) for RCP8.5. Two of the models eventually realized a slow shutdown of the MOC under RCP8.5, although no model exhibited an abrupt change of the MOC. Through analysis of the freshwater flux across 30°–32°S into the Atlantic, it was found that 56% of the CMIP5 models were in a bistable regime of the MOC for at least part of their RCP integrations. The results support previous assessments that it is very unlikely that the MOC will undergo an abrupt change to an off state as a consequence of global warming.
Key Points
All climate models project very similar behavior during the 21st century
No model exhibits an abrupt change of the MOC
More than 1/2 of the models are in the bistable regime ==> not overly stable
Climate targets are designed to inform policies that would limit the magnitude and impacts of climate change caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other substances. The target ...that is currently recognized by most world governments places a limit of two degrees Celsius on the global mean warming since preindustrial times. This would require large sustained reductions in carbon dioxide emissions during the twenty-first century and beyond. Such a global temperature target, however, is not sufficient to control many other quantities, such as transient sea level rise, ocean acidification and net primary production on land. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) in an observation-informed Bayesian approach, we show that allowable carbon emissions are substantially reduced when multiple climate targets are set. We take into account uncertainties in physical and carbon cycle model parameters, radiative efficiencies, climate sensitivity and carbon cycle feedbacks along with a large set of observational constraints. Within this framework, we explore a broad range of economically feasible greenhouse gas scenarios from the integrated assessment community to determine the likelihood of meeting a combination of specific global and regional targets under various assumptions. For any given likelihood of meeting a set of such targets, the allowable cumulative emissions are greatly reduced from those inferred from the temperature target alone. Therefore, temperature targets alone are unable to comprehensively limit the risks from anthropogenic emissions.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, KISLJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The marine cycle of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) is an important element of the carbon cycle and co-governs the distribution of carbon and alkalinity within the ocean. However, CaCO3 export fluxes and ...mechanisms governing CaCO3 dissolution are highly uncertain. We present an observationally constrained, probabilistic assessment of the global and regional CaCO3 budgets. Parameters governing pelagic CaCO3 export fluxes and dissolution rates are sampled using a Monte Carlo scheme to construct a 1000-member ensemble with the Bern3D ocean model. Ensemble results are constrained by comparing simulated and observation-based fields of excess dissolved calcium carbonate (TA*). The minerals calcite and aragonite are modelled explicitly and ocean–sediment fluxes are considered. For local dissolution rates, either a strong or a weak dependency on CaCO3 saturation is assumed. In addition, there is the option to have saturation-independent dissolution above the saturation horizon. The median (and 68 % confidence interval) of the constrained model ensemble for global biogenic CaCO3 export is 0.90 (0.72–1.05) Gt C yr−1, that is within the lower half of previously published estimates (0.4–1.8 Gt C yr−1). The spatial pattern of CaCO3 export is broadly consistent with earlier assessments. Export is large in the Southern Ocean, the tropical Indo–Pacific, the northern Pacific and relatively small in the Atlantic. The constrained results are robust across a range of diapycnal mixing coefficients and, thus, ocean circulation strengths. Modelled ocean circulation and transport timescales for the different set-ups were further evaluated with CFC11 and radiocarbon observations. Parameters and mechanisms governing dissolution are hardly constrained by either the TA* data or the current compilation of CaCO3 flux measurements such that model realisations with and without saturation-dependent dissolution achieve skill. We suggest applying saturation-independent dissolution rates in Earth system models to minimise computational costs.
Paleoecology can provide valuable insights into the ecology of species that complement observation and experiment-based assessments of climate-impact dynamics. New paleoecological records (e.g. ...pollen, macrofossils) from the Italian Peninsula suggest a much wider climatic niche of the important European tree species
Abies alba
(silver fir) than observed in its present spatial range. To explore this discrepancy between current and past distribution we analyse climatic data (e.g. temperature, precipitation, frost, humidity, sunshine) and vegetation-independent paleoclimatic reconstructions (e.g. lake levels, chironomids) and use global coupled carbon-cycle climate (NCAR CSM1.4) and dynamic vegetation (LANDCLIM) modelling. The combined evidence suggests that during the mid-Holocene (ca. 6000 years ago), prior to humanization of vegetation,
A. alba
formed forests under conditions that exceeded modern (1961-1990) upper temperature limit of the species by ca. 5-7 °C (July means). Annual precipitation during this natural period was comparable to today (>700-800 mm), with drier summers and wetter winters. In the meso-mediterranean to sub-mediterranean forests A. alba co-occurred with thermophilous taxa such as
Quercus ilex, Q. pubescens, Olea europaea, Phillyrea, Arbutus, Cistus, Tilia, Ulmus, Acer, Hedera helix, Ilex aquifolium, Taxus,
and
Vitis
. Results from the last interglacial (ca. 130,000-115,000 BP), when human impact was negligible, corroborate the Holocene evidence. Thermophilous Mediterranean
A. alba
stands became extinct during the last 5000 years when land-use pressure and specifically excessive anthropogenic fire and browsing disturbance increased. Our results imply that the ecology of this key European tree species is not yet well understood. On the basis of the reconstructed realized climatic niche of the species, we anticipate that the future geographic range of
A. alba
may not contract regardless of migration success, even if climate should become significantly warmer than today with summer temperatures increasing by up to 5-7°C, as long as precipitation does not fall below 700-800 mm/year, and disturbance (e.g. fire, browsing) does not become excessive. Our finding contradicts recent studies that projected range contractions under global-warming scenarios, but did not factor how millennia of human impacts reduced the realized climatic niche of
A. alba
.
The development of northern high-latitude peatlands played an important role in the carbon (C) balance of the land biosphere since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). At present, carbon storage in ...northern peatlands is substantial and estimated to be 500 ± 100 Pg C (1 Pg C = 1015 g C). Here, we develop and apply a peatland module embedded in a dynamic global vegetation and land surface process model (LPX-Bern 1.0). The peatland module features a dynamic nitrogen cycle, a dynamic C transfer between peatland acrotelm (upper oxic layer) and catotelm (deep anoxic layer), hydrology- and temperature-dependent respiration rates, and peatland specific plant functional types. Nitrogen limitation down-regulates average modern net primary productivity over peatlands by about half. Decadal acrotelm-to-catotelm C fluxes vary between −20 and +50 g C m−2 yr−1 over the Holocene. Key model parameters are calibrated with reconstructed peat accumulation rates from peat-core data. The model reproduces the major features of the peat core data and of the observation-based modern circumpolar soil carbon distribution. Results from a set of simulations for possible evolutions of northern peat development and areal extent show that soil C stocks in modern peatlands increased by 365–550 Pg C since the LGM, of which 175–272 Pg C accumulated between 11 and 5 kyr BP. Furthermore, our simulations suggest a persistent C sequestration rate of 35–50 Pg C per 1000 yr in present-day peatlands under current climate conditions, and that this C sink could either sustain or turn towards a source by 2100 AD depending on climate trajectories as projected for different representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways.
CO2 and carbon cycle changes in the land, ocean and atmosphere are investigated using the comprehensive carbon cycle-climate model NCAR CSM1.4-carbon. Ensemble simulations are forced with freshwater ...perturbations applied at the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean deep water formation sites under pre-industrial climate conditions. As a result, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation reduces in each experiment to varying degrees. The physical climate fields show changes qualitatively in agreement with results documented in the literature, but there is a clear distinction between northern and southern perturbations. Changes in the physical variables, in turn, affect the land and ocean biogeochemical cycles and cause a reduction, or an increase, in the atmospheric CO2 concentration by up to 20 ppmv, depending on the location of the perturbation. In the case of a North Atlantic perturbation, the land biosphere reacts with a strong reduction in carbon stocks in some tropical locations and in high northern latitudes. In contrast, land carbon stocks tend to increase in response to a southern perturbation. The ocean is generally a sink of carbon although large reorganizations occur throughout various basins. The response of the land biosphere is strongest in the tropical regions due to a shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The carbon fingerprints of this shift, either to the south or to the north depending on where the freshwater is applied, can be found most clearly in South America. For this reason, a compilation of various paleoclimate proxy records of Younger Dryas precipitation changes are compared with our model results. The proxy records, in general, show good agreement with the model's response to a North Atlantic freshwater perturbation.
It is expected that climate change will have significant impacts on ecosystems. Most model projections agree that the ocean will experience stronger stratification and less nutrient supply from deep ...waters. These changes will likely affect marine phytoplankton communities and will thus impact on the higher trophic levels of the oceanic food web. The potential consequences of future climate change on marine microbial communities can be investigated and predicted only with the help of mathematical models. Here we present the application of a model that describes aggregate properties of marine phytoplankton communities and captures the effects of a changing environment on their composition and adaptive capacity. Specifically, the model describes the phytoplankton community in terms of total biomass, mean cell size, and functional diversity. The model is applied to two contrasting regions of the Atlantic Ocean (tropical and temperate) and is tested under two emission scenarios: SRES A2 or ``business as usual'' and SRES B1 or ``local utopia''. We find that all three macroecological properties will decline during the next century in both regions, although this effect will be more pronounced in the temperate region. Being consistent with previous model predictions, our results show that a simple trait-based modelling framework represents a valuable tool for investigating how phytoplankton communities may reorganize under a changing climate.
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