Most estimates of global mean sea-level rise this century fall below 2 m. This quantity is comparable to the positive vertical bias of the principle digital elevation model (DEM) used to assess ...global and national population exposures to extreme coastal water levels, NASA's SRTM. CoastalDEM is a new DEM utilizing neural networks to reduce SRTM error. Here we show - employing CoastalDEM-that 190 M people (150-250 M, 90% CI) currently occupy global land below projected high tide lines for 2100 under low carbon emissions, up from 110 M today, for a median increase of 80 M. These figures triple SRTM-based values. Under high emissions, CoastalDEM indicates up to 630 M people live on land below projected annual flood levels for 2100, and up to 340 M for mid-century, versus roughly 250 M at present. We estimate one billion people now occupy land less than 10 m above current high tide lines, including 250 M below 1 m.
Vascular calcification is a hallmark of atherosclerosis. The location, density, and confluence of calcification may change portions of the arterial conduit to a noncompliant structure. Calcifications ...may also seed the cap of a thin cap fibroatheroma, altering tensile forces on the cap and rendering the lesion prone to rupture. Many local and systemic factors participate in this process, including hyperlipidemia, ongoing inflammation, large necrotic cores, and diabetes. Vascular cells can undergo chondrogenic or osteogenic differentiation, causing mineralization of membranous bone and formation of endochondral bone. Calcifying vascular cells are derived from local smooth muscle cells and circulating hematopoietic stem cells (especially in intimal calcification). Matrix vesicles in the extracellular space of the necrotic core serve as a nidus for calcification. Although coronary calcification is a marker of coronary atheroma, dense calcification (>400 HU) is usually associated with stable plaques. Conversely, microcalcification (often also referred to as spotty calcification) is more commonly an accompaniment of vulnerable plaques. Recent studies have suggested that microcalcification in the fibrous cap may increase local tissue stress (depending on the proximity of one microcalcific locus to another, and the orientation of the microcalcification in reference to blood flow), resulting in plaque instability. It has been proposed that positron emission tomography imaging with sodium fluoride may identify early calcific deposits and hence high-risk plaques.
Calcification in a coronary artery is accepted as definite evidence of coronary atherosclerosis. The extent and density of calcification, as combined in the Agatston score, is associated with the ...risk of a patient experiencing a major acute coronary event. Atherosclerosis occurs because damaged endothelial cells allow low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDLc) to leak into subintimal tissue. Proteoglycans in subendothelial collagen have a high affinity for LDLc, retaining the lipoprotein cholesterol complex. As the endothelial damage is repaired, the subintimal LDLc is trapped. Retained LDLc induces an inflammatory response in the overlying endothelium, causing the endothelium to express chemotactic peptides. Chemotactic peptides attract circulating monocytes, which follow the concentration gradient, enter the tissue, and become tissue macrophages to phagocytize and digest the irritating LDLc in the atheroma. In the process of digesting LDLc, enzymes in the macrophages oxidize the LDLc complex. Oxidized LDL is toxic to macrophages; when present in sufficient quantity, it may cause death of macrophages, contributing to inflammation in the atheroma. In a necrotic inflammatory lesion, the regulatory mechanisms that control tissue concentrations of calcium and phosphorus are lost, allowing the solubility product of calcium phosphate to be exceeded, resulting in the formation of microscopic calcium-phosphate crystals. With ongoing inflammation, additional calcium-phosphate crystals are formed, which may aggregate. When these aggregated calcium phosphate crystals exceed 1 mm, the lesions become visible on clinical CT as coronary calcifications. Serial gated CT scans of the heart have demonstrated that once formed, CT-visible calcifications do not decrease significantly in size but may increase.
Anthropogenic carbon emissions lock in long-term sea-level rise that greatly exceeds projections for this century, posing profound challenges for coastal development and cultural legacies. Analysis ...based on previously published relationships linking emissions to warming and warming to rise indicates that unabated carbon emissions up to the year 2100 would commit an eventual global sea-level rise of 4.3–9.9 m. Based on detailed topographic and population data, local high tide lines, and regional long-term sea-level commitment for different carbon emissions and ice sheet stability scenarios, we compute the current population living on endangered land at municipal, state, and national levels within the United States. For unabated climate change, we find that land that is home to more than 20 million people is implicated and is widely distributed among different states and coasts. The total area includes 1,185–1,825 municipalities where land that is home to more than half of the current population would be affected, among them at least 21 cities exceeding 100,000 residents. Under aggressive carbon cuts, more than half of these municipalities would avoid this commitment if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet remains stable. Similarly, more than half of the US population-weighted area under threat could be spared. We provide lists of implicated cities and state populations for different emissions scenarios and with and without a certain collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although past anthropogenic emissions already have caused sea-level commitment that will force coastal cities to adapt, future emissions will determine which areas we can continue to occupy or may have to abandon.
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