Assessing the potential impacts of 21st-century climate change on species distributions and ecological processes requires climate scenarios with sufficient spatial resolution to represent the varying ...effects of climate change across heterogeneous physical, biological, and cultural landscapes. Unfortunately, the native resolutions of global climate models (usually approximately 2 ° × 2 ° or coarser) are inadéquate for modeling future changes in, e.g., biodiversity, species distributions, crop yields, and water resources. Also, 21st-century climate projections must be debiased prior to use, i.e., corrected for systematic offsets between modeled representations and observations of present climates. We have downscaled future temperature and precipitation projections from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) CMIP3 multi-model data set to 10-minute resolution and debiased these simulations using the change-factor approach and observational data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). These downscaled data sets are available online and include monthly mean temperatures and precipitation for 2041–2060 and 2081–2100, for 24 climate models and the A1B, A2, and B1 emission scenarios. This paper describes the downscaling method and compares the downscaled and native-resolution simulations. Sharp differences between the original and downscaled data sets are apparent at regional to continental scales, particularly for temperature in mountainous areas and in areas with substantial differences between observed and simulated 20th-century climatologies. Although these data sets in principle could be downscaled further, a key practical limitation is the density of observational networks, particularly for precipitation-related variables in tropical mountainous regions. These downscaled data sets can be used for a variety of climate-impact assessments, including assessments of 21st-century climate-change impacts on biodiversity and species distributions.
In an effort to increase conservation effectiveness through the use of Earth observation technologies, a group of remote sensing scientists affiliated with government and academic institutions and ...conservation organizations identified 10 questions in conservation for which the potential to be answered would be greatly increased by use of remotely sensed data and analyses of those data. Our goals were to increase conservation practitioners’ use of remote sensing to support their work, increase collaboration between the conservation science and remote sensing communities, identify and develop new and innovative uses of remote sensing for advancing conservation science, provide guidance to space agencies on how future satellite missions can support conservation science, and generate support from the public and private sector in the use of remote sensing data to address the 10 conservation questions. We identified a broad initial list of questions on the basis of an email chain‐referral survey. We then used a workshop‐based iterative and collaborative approach to whittle the list down to these final questions (which represent 10 major themes in conservation): How can global Earth observation data be used to model species distributions and abundances? How can remote sensing improve the understanding of animal movements? How can remotely sensed ecosystem variables be used to understand, monitor, and predict ecosystem response and resilience to multiple stressors? How can remote sensing be used to monitor the effects of climate on ecosystems? How can near real‐time ecosystem monitoring catalyze threat reduction, governance and regulation compliance, and resource management decisions? How can remote sensing inform configuration of protected area networks at spatial extents relevant to populations of target species and ecosystem services? How can remote sensing‐derived products be used to value and monitor changes in ecosystem services? How can remote sensing be used to monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of conservation efforts? How does the expansion and intensification of agriculture and aquaculture alter ecosystems and the services they provide? How can remote sensing be used to determine the degree to which ecosystems are being disturbed or degraded and the effects of these changes on species and ecosystem functions?
The coffee sector is working towards sector-wide commitments for sustainable production. Yet, knowledge of where coffee is cultivated and its environmental impact remains limited, in part due to the ...challenges of mapping coffee using satellite remote sensing. We recognize the urgency to capitalize on recent technological advances to improve remote sensing methods and generate more accurate, reliable, and scalable approaches to coffee mapping. In this study, we provide a systematic review of satellite-based approaches to mapping coffee extent, which produced 43 articles in the peer-reviewed and gray literature. We outline key considerations for employing effective approaches, focused on the need to balance data affordability and quality, classification complexity and accuracy, and generalizability and site-specificity. We discuss research opportunities for improved approaches by leveraging the recent expansion of diverse satellite sensors and constellations, optical/Synthetic Aperture Radar data fusion approaches, and advances in cloud computing and deep learning algorithms. We highlight the need for differentiating between production systems and the need for research in important coffee-growing geographies. By reviewing the range of techniques successfully used to map coffee extent, we provide technical recommendations and future directions to enable accurate and scalable coffee maps.
Conservation early warning and alert systems (CEAS) provide tremendous opportunities to inform strategic and effective environmental responses. However, these systems are not systematically evaluated ...based on how they are contributing to conservation outcomes. We survey the current state of systems enabled by satellite monitoring to support tropical forest management and highlight their recent proliferation and the sparse evaluations of these systems in terms of user adoption and application for improving conservation decisions. To guide practitioners, funders and policymakers to choose the appropriate tool for the application, we distinguish two types of CEAS, Rapid Response and Targeted Response, characterized by the user application and the timeframe for decision‐making. These tools are distinct from monitoring tools used for policy and planning which require routine, high‐accuracy and quantifiable estimates of land cover change. We see a need for more systematic evaluations quantifying their environmental and socioeconomic benefits and improved indicators measuring progress toward achieving conservation outcomes. To inform system developers, we summarize best practices for increasing system adoption and use gleaned from seasoned applications of early warning and alert systems for conservation and humanitarian applications. Engaging diverse stakeholders, building permanent capacity, increasing accessibility and interpretability of the information, and communicating the information value to decision‐makers help root these systems into decision‐making processes. Incorporating local knowledge and on‐the‐ground monitoring information from stakeholders can improve alert accuracy while respectfully honoring local knowledge and garnering stakeholder trust in the systems. Strengthening cross‐institutional networks, building political support, and allocating adequate resources empower decision‐makers to act upon the information. Addressing today’s urgent conservation challenges requires linking accessible, trusted and effective CEAS to empowered people taking conservation actions.
Conservation early warning and alert systems provide tremendous opportunities to inform strategic and effective environmental responses. However, these systems are not systematically evaluated based on how they are contributing to conservation outcomes. We survey the current state of conservation early warning and alert systems enabled by satellite monitoring to support tropical forest management and distinguish two types of systems characterized by the user‐application and the timeframe for decision making, Rapid Response and Targeted Response. We see a need for more systematic evaluations that quantify their environmental and socio‐economic benefits and improved indicators that measure progress towards achieving conservation outcomes. To inform system developers, we summarize best practices for increasing system adoption and use gleaned from seasoned applications of early warning and alert systems for conservation and humanitarian applications.
Forest conservation and REDD+ projects invest millions of dollars each year to reduce local communities' dependence on forests and prevent forest loss and degradation. However, to date, there is ...limited evidence on whether these investments are effective at delivering conservation outcomes. We explored the relationships between 600+ small-scale conservation and development investments that occurred from 2007 to 2014 and conservation outcomes (deforestation rates and fire detections) within Ankeniheny-Zahamena Corridor in Madagascar using linear fixed effects panel regressions. We derived annual changes in forest cover and fires from satellite remote sensing. We found a statistically significant correlation between presence of any investment and reduced deforestation rates in 2010 and 2011 -years with accelerated deforestation elsewhere in the study area. This result indicated investments abated deforestation rates during times of political instability and lack of governance following a 2009 coup in Madagascar. We also found a statistically significant relationship between presence of any investment and reduced fire detections in the study area, suggesting investments had an impact on reducing burning of forest for agriculture. For both outcomes (i.e., deforestation rates and fire detections), we found that more dollars invested led to greater conservation outcomes (i.e. fewer fires or less deforestation), particularly when funding was sustained for one to two years. Our findings suggest that conservation and development investments can reduce deforestation and fire incidence, but also highlight the many challenges and complexities in assessing relationships between investments and conservation outcomes in a dynamic landscape and a volatile political context.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Identifying protected areas most susceptible to climate change and deforestation represents critical information for determining conservation investments. Development of effective landscape ...interventions is required to ensure the preservation and protection of these areas essential to ecosystem service provision, provide high biodiversity value, and serve a critical habitat connectivity role. We identified vulnerable protected areas in the humid tropical forest biome using climate metrics for 2050 and future deforestation risk for 2024 modeled from historical deforestation and global drivers of deforestation. Results show distinct continental and regional patterns of combined threats to protected areas. Eleven Mha (2%) of global humid tropical protected area was exposed to the highest combined threats and should be prioritized for investments in landscape interventions focused on adaptation to climate stressors. Global tropical protected area exposed to the lowest deforestation risk but highest climate risks totaled 135 Mha (26%). Thirty-five percent of South America’s protected area fell into this risk category and should be prioritized for increasing protected area size and connectivity to facilitate species movement. Global humid tropical protected area exposed to a combination of the lowest deforestation and lowest climate risks totaled 89 Mha (17%), and were disproportionately located in Africa (34%) and Asia (17%), indicating opportunities for low-risk conservation investments for improved connectivity to these potential climate refugia. This type of biome-scale, protected area analysis, combining both climate change and deforestation threats, is critical to informing policies and landscape interventions to maximize investments for environmental conservation and increase ecosystem resilience to climate change.
Despite global recognition of the social, economic and ecological impacts of deforestation, the world is losing forests at an alarming rate. Global and regional efforts by policymakers and donors to ...reduce deforestation need science-driven information on where forest loss is happening, and where it may happen in the future. We used spatially-explicit globally-consistent variables and global historical tree cover and loss to analyze how global- and regional-scale variables contributed to historical tree cover loss and to model future risks of tree cover loss, based on a business-as-usual scenario. Our results show that (1) some biomes have higher risk of tree cover loss than others; (2) variables related to tree cover loss at the global scale differ from those at the regional scale; and (3) variables related to tree cover loss vary by continent. By mapping both tree cover loss risk and potential future tree cover loss, we aim to provide decision makers and donors with multiple outputs to improve targeting of forest conservation investments. By making the outputs readily accessible, we anticipate they will be used in other modeling analyses, conservation planning exercises, and prioritization activities aimed at conserving forests to meet national and global climate mitigation targets and biodiversity goals.
•Protected areas (PAs) in Tanzania are effective at preserving forest carbon stock.•A scalable method is developed to assess PAs’ efficacy in preserving forest structure.•GEDI’s 3D forest structure ...measurements can be used to support forest conservation.•Community-governed PAs had the largest positive influence on forest structure.•Small PAs are effective at preserving forest structure in well-connected PA networks.
Protected areas (PAs) serve as a critical strategy for protecting natural resources, conserving biodiversity, and mitigating climate change. While there is a critical need to guide area-based conservation efforts, a systematic assessment of PA effectiveness for storing carbon stocks has not been possible due to the lack of globally consistent forest biomass data. In this study, we present a new methodology utilizing forest structural information and aboveground biomass density (AGBD) obtained from the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) mission. We compare PAs with similar, unprotected forests obtained through statistical matching to assess differences in carbon storage and forest structure. We also assess matching outcomes for a robust and minimally biased way to quantify PA efficacy. We find that all analyzed PAs in Tanzania possess higher biomass densities than their unprotected counterfactuals (24.4% higher on average). This is also true for other forest structure metrics, including tree height, canopy cover, and plant area index (PAI). We also find that community-governed PAs are the most effective category of PAs at preserving forest structure and AGBD – often outperforming those managed by international or national entities. In addition, PAs designated under more than one entity perform better than the PAs with a single designation, especially those with multiple international designations. Finally, our findings suggest that smaller PAs may be more effective for conservation, depending on levels of connectivity. Taken together, these findings support the designation of PAs as an effective means for forest management with considerable potential to protect forest ecosystems and achieve long-term climate goals.
Conservation early warning and alert systems (CEAS) provide substantial opportunities to improve awareness of global change and deliver time-sensitive information to users taking measures to avert ...the loss of ecosystems that provide critical services to support human well-being. In recent years, the conservation community has fostered a proliferation of CEAS that utilize the near real-time capabilities of Earth observation satellites to monitor global changes and inform strategic and effective responses to emerging ecosystem threats. While scrutiny of the effectiveness of conservation interventions by researchers, practitioners, and funders has boosted more rigorous evaluations of conservation interventions in the past decade, assessments of how technologies like CEAS enable conservation actions are scarce. In this doctoral research, I reviewed the current suite of CEAS and highlighted gaps in the literature to describe or evaluate their applications. I collected users’ and developers’ experiences with CEAS across several countries and identified differential barriers to using CEAS for different populations while sourcing recommendations for improving design and access. Finally, I focused on the development of CEAS for tropical land management in Colombia and analyzed how institutions integrate CEAS into national decision-making frameworks. The overall results from this work suggest that dozens of CEAS provide cost-effective approaches for achieving multiple conservation goals. While some users are overwhelmed by the variety of systems available, many users, particularly those on the front lines of conservation, face numerous barriers preventing access to and effective use of satellite-based monitoring information. Funders should prioritize support for disseminating technology and alert information uptake over building more systems. Improvements in coordination, collaboration, and adequate resources to support technology use are required to increase CEAS use for diverse applications. The power of surveillance technologies like CEAS may also have unintended social and environmental consequences. Therefore, system developers and proponents of CEAS must understand the risks and follow guidelines to minimize further marginalizing vulnerable groups. Designing proxy measures for outcomes can enable rapid system adjustments to reduce risks and better connect the information to action. This research aims to improve the design and implementation of CEAS to fully realize the potential role of these systems in supporting global sustainability.
Decision-makers need readily accessible tools to understand the potential impacts of alternative policies on forest cover and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to develop effective policies to meet ...national and international targets for biodiversity conservation, sustainable development and climate change mitigation. Land change modelling can support policy decisions by demonstrating potential impacts of policies on future deforestation and GHG emissions. We modelled land change to explore the potential impacts of expert-informed scenarios on deforestation and GHG emissions, specifically CO2 emissions, in the Ankeniheny–Zahamena Corridor in eastern Madagascar. We considered four scenarios: business as usual; effective conservation of protected areas; investment in infrastructure; and agricultural intensification. Our results highlight that effective forest conservation could deliver substantial emissions reductions, while infrastructure development will likely cause forest loss in new areas. Agricultural intensification could prevent additional forest loss if it reduced the need to clear more land while improving food security. Our study demonstrates how available land change modelling tools and scenario analyses can inform land-use policies, helping countries reconcile economic development with forest conservation and climate change mitigation commitments.
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