Endowed with half of the world's known oil and gas reserves, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is cornerstone of the global energy architecture. The global low-carbon energy transition ...poses critical questions to MENA oil and gas producers, as it may imply sustained pressure on their development models, which rely heavily on hydrocarbon revenues. Without economic reforms, this may translate into macroeconomic unbalances, and ultimately put at risk established social contracts in the region. The sharp drop in oil prices that began in 2014 fostered MENA hydrocarbon producers to launch ambitious economic reform programmes aimed at increasing the diversification of their economies, notably by developing their non-hydrocarbon sectors. This article argues that – together with the pressing need to create jobs opportunities for a large and youthful population – the possibility of the world moving more aggressively towards a low-carbon future should represent a key argument for the implementation of these economic reform programmes. That is, MENA producers might use the potential prospect of lower global hydrocarbon demand and prices to overcome their rentier state model, and pursue the economic diversification plans never duly implemented in the past.
•MENA hydrocarbon producers' socio-economic structures continue to heavily rely on oil rent.•The low-carbon transition may imply sustained pressure on their development models.•Since the 2014 oil price drop, they adopted new, ambitious, economic diversification plans.•Such diversification plans never worked in the past, due to a lack of real incentives.•Job creation needs and low-carbon transition could foster diversification plans' implementation.
Digital technologies have the potential to make the transport system more connected, intelligent, efficient, reliable and sustainable. That is, digital technologies could fundamentally transform how ...people and goods are moved, with significant impacts on transport demand and on the related energy consumption and environmental impacts. This article proposes a scenario analysis for the future of European passenger transport, by evaluating the potential effects of digitalization on mobility demand, energy consumption and CO2 emissions under different assumptions. The analysis illustrates that the penetration of digital technologies can lead to opposite effects with regard to both energy consumption and emissions. Two opposite scenarios are compared, to evaluate the effects of a “responsible” digitalization, in the direction of a sustainable mobility, against a “selfish” digitalization, where the final users maximize their utility. The likelihood of these two possible pathways is related to multiple drivers, including users’ behavior, economic conditions and transport and environmental policies. Results show the variability range of the potential effects on energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Europe by 2030 and 2050, by considering digitalization trends including Mobility as a Service, Shared Mobility and Autonomous Vehicles. The variability of key parameters is evaluated in a dedicated sensitivity analysis, where the effects of electric vehicles, electricity generation mixes and vehicles’ efficiency improvements are assessed. The article concludes that in order to fully exploit the advantages of digitalization, proper policies are needed to support an efficient and effective deployment of available technologies through an optimized and shared use of alternative transport options.
•The paper evaluates the effects on energy consumption of digitalization in transport.•Different scenarios allow comparing alternative digitalization pathways.•Digitalization needs a tailored policy support to avoid higher energy consumption.•A sensitivity analysis supports the discussion on the various aspects involved.
Europe will see lasting reductions in its consumption of natural gas as a result of greater energy efficiency, a switch to green alternatives and the transfer, or offshoring, of energy-intensive ...industries, such as steel and fertilizers, to other nations. High global oil and gas prices (see 'Energy cost hikes'; upper panel) offer an incentive for households and businesses to install solar panels and heat pumps to lower their energy bills, as many did this year in Europe. In areas such as solar power, China has for decades invested billions of dollars in becoming the dominant processing hub. Rather than replicating that, a smarter strategy for European countries and the United States might be to focus on developing the next generation of technologies, including sodium batteries or thin-film, non-silicon solar panels.
Infrastructure investments are the material way of turning sustainable development goals into practice. Climate action requires renewable energy plants, power grids and electric‐vehicle charging ...infrastructure, in the same way that health requires hospitals, education requires schools or connectivity requires ports. In this context, the Global Gateway can help meet the European Union (EU)'s international pledges, such as on climate finance, by supporting partner countries in the implementation of their sustainable development agendas. It can enable EU industry to enter new growing markets, a win for EU industrial policy. On top of this, it can help economic development in the EU's partner countries, providing an invaluable foreign policy dividend for the EU. In geopolitical terms, the Global Gateway can help the EU better position itself in the global infrastructure and connectivity race. Rule‐based cooperation focussed on a clear set of priorities represents an attractive alternative to the Belt and Road Initiative in several partner countries, starting in Africa. By scaling up cooperation on economic and social infrastructure projects, the EU thus has an opportunity to promote its values and vision of sustainability in a way that is tangible and long‐lasting.
Group size in social-ecological systems Casari, Marco; Tagliapietra, Claudio
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS,
03/2018, Letnik:
115, Številka:
11
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Cooperation becomes more difficult as a group becomes larger, but it is unclear where it will break down. Here, we study group size within well-functioning social-ecological systems. We consider ...centuries-old evidence from hundreds of communities in the Alps that harvested common property resources. Results show that the average group size remained remarkably stable over about six centuries, in contrast to a general increase in the regional population. The population more than doubled, but although single groups experienced fluctuations over time, the average group size remained stable. Ecological factors, such as managing forest instead of pasture land, played a minor role in determining group size. The evidence instead indicates that factors related to social interactions had a significant role in determining group size. We discuss possible interpretations of the findings based on constraints in individual cognition and obstacles in collective decision making.
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