Artificial neural networks have featured in a wide range of medical journals, often with promising results. This paper reports on a systematic review that was conducted to assess the benefit of ...artificial neural networks (ANNs) as decision making tools in the field of cancer. The number of clinical trials (CTs) and randomised controlled trials (RCTs) involving the use of ANNs in diagnosis and prognosis increased from 1 to 38 in the last decade. However, out of 396 studies involving the use of ANNs in cancer, only 27 were either CTs or RCTs. Out of these trials, 21 showed an increase in benefit to healthcare provision and 6 did not. None of these studies however showed a decrease in benefit. This paper reviews the clinical fields where neural network methods figure most prominently, the main algorithms featured, methodologies for model selection and the need for rigorous evaluation of results.
Uveal melanoma is fatal in almost 50% of patients. We previously developed a prognostic model to predict all-cause mortality. The aim of this study was to improve our model by predicting metastatic ...death as a cause-specific event distinct from other causes of death.
Patients treated in Liverpool were included if they resided in England, Scotland or Wales and if their uveal melanoma involved the choroid. They were flagged at the National Health Service Cancer Registry, which automatically informed us of the date and cause of death of any deceased patients. A semiparametric Markov multi-state model was fitted. Two different baseline hazard rates were assumed, with state transition-specific covariates. For both failure types, age at treatment and sex were used. For the metastatic death case, these factors were added: anterior margin position, largest basal tumour diameter, tumour thickness, extra-ocular extension, presence of epithelioid melanoma cells, presence of closed connective tissue loops, increased mitotic count, chromosome 3 loss, and chromosome 8q gain. Missing data required a multiple-imputation procedure.
The cohort comprised 4161 patients, 893 of whom died of metastastic disease with another 772 dying of other causes. The optimism-corrected, bootstrapped C-index for metastatic death prediction was 0.86, denoting very good discriminative performance. Bootstrapped calibration curves at two and five years also showed very good performance.
Our improved model provides reliable, personalised metastatic death prognostication using clinical, histological and genetic information, and it can be used as a decision support tool to individualize patient care in a clinical environment.
Uveal melanoma (UM) metastasises in ~50% of patients, most frequently to the liver. Surveillance imaging can provide early detection of hepatic metastases; however, guidance regarding UM patient risk ...stratification for surveillance is unclear. This study compared sensitivity and specificity of four current prognostic systems, when used for risk stratification for surveillance, on patients treated at the Liverpool Ocular Oncology Centre (LOOC) between 2007-2016 (
= 1047). It found that the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online III (LUMPOIII) or Liverpool Parsimonious Model (LPM) offered greater specificity at equal levels of sensitivity than the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) system or monosomy 3 alone, and suggests guidance to achieve 95% sensitivity and 51% specificity (i.e., how to detect the same number of patients with metastases, while reducing the number of negative scans). For example, 180 scans could be safely avoided over 5 years in 200 patients using the most specific approach. LUMPOIII also offered high sensitivity and improved specificity over the AJCC in the absence of genetic information, making the result relevant to centres that do not perform genetic testing, or where such testing is inappropriate or fails. This study provides valuable information for clinical guidelines for risk stratification for surveillance in UM.
To determine the occurrence of BRAF V600E gene mutations and copy number changes of all autosome arms and genes known to be frequently altered in tumorigenesis in primary and metastatic conjunctival ...melanomas (CoMs).
DNA (200 ng) was analyzed by three multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification assays (P027 uveal melanoma, P036 human telomere, and P206 spitzoid melanoma).
Eight of 16 primary tumor samples and 4 of 6 metastatic samples showed BRAF V600E gene mutations. CDKN1A and RUNX2 (both 6p21.2) were amplified in 11 and 16 of 21 primary CoMs, respectively. In metastatic CoMs, MLH1 (3p22.1) and TIMP2 (17q25.3) were frequently amplified, and MGMT (20q26.3) and ECHS1 (10q26.3) were frequently deleted. The BDH (3q), FLJ20265 (4p), OPRL1 (20q), and PAO (10q) genes, representing the telomeres of their respective chromosome arms in the P036 assay, were frequently amplified in metastatic CoMs. No statistically significant associations were identified between BRAF mutation or CDKN1A or RUNX2 amplification and sex, age, histologic cell type, or patient survival.
No copy number changes were associated exclusively with metastatic CoMs. However, further investigation of the role of CDKN1A and RUNX2 in CoMs development and that of MLH1, TIMP2, MGMT, and ECHS1 in metastatic CoMs is warranted. Validation of the observed gene and chromosome arm copy number changes in a larger cohort of primary and metastatic CoMs is necessary to identify the patients at highest risk for CoMs metastasis.
This paper outlines a method for cost-utility analysis of liver screening for metastases in patients with posterior uveal melanoma (UM). A semiparametric model of the cumulative incidence of onset of ...liver metastases was fitted to a retrospective data set of 615 subjects with clinical follow-up with respect to liver surveillance imaging and outcome. The model was internally validated via bootstrap resampling in terms of its discrimination and calibration performance. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) were derived at different time points. The discrimination performances are consistent across time. The area under the ROC curve at 5 years post treatment was 0.85 95% CI: 0.81–0.88. A goodness-of-fit test gives χ2(10)=5.3,p=0.9 demonstrating no evidence against the null hypothesis of zero difference between observed and expected onset of metastatic events. Results showed that at 80% sensitivity, 87% of UM patients will avoid unnecessary radiological scans. This provides potential cost savings of between £46,000 and £97,000 per year to the National Health Service assuming 600 new cases per year.
•Routine liver screening for UM metastases is time consuming and costly to patients and healthcare providers.•The application of LUMPO can enhance cost-effectiveness by reducing the number of screening examinations.•Significant cost savings can be made depending on number of cases and local practice.
Proton beam radiotherapy and plaque brachytherapy are commonly applied in primary uveal melanoma (UM); however, their effect on chromosome 3 classification of UM by microsatellite analysis (MSA) for ...prognostication purposes is unknown, where the tumour is sampled post-irradiation. This study examined the prognostic accuracy of genotyping UM biopsied before or after administration of radiotherapy, by MSA.
407 UM patients treated at the Liverpool Ocular Oncology Centre between January 2011 to December 2017, were genotyped for chromosome 3 by MSA; 172 and 176 primary UM were sampled prior to and post irradiation, respectively.
Genotyping by MSA was successful in 396/407 (97%) of UM samples (196 males, 211 females; median age of 61 years (range 12 to 93) at primary treatment). There was no demonstrable association between a failure of MSA to produce a chromosome 3 classification and whether radiation was performed pre-biopsy or post-biopsy with an OR of 0.96 (95% CI 0.30 to 3.00, p=0.94). There was no evidence of association (measured as HRs) between risk of metastatic death and sampling of a primary UM before administration of radiotherapy (HR 1.1 (0.49 to 2.50), p=0.81). Monosomy 3 (HR 12.0 (4.1 to 35.0), p<0.001) was significantly associated with increased risk of metastatic death.
This study revealed that successful genotyping of UM using MSA is possible, irrespective of irradiation status. Moreover, we found no evidence that biopsy prior to radiotherapy increases metastatic mortality.
Our aim was to determine whether size impacts on the difference in metastatic mortality of genetically high-risk (monosomy 3) uveal melanomas (UM). We undertook a retrospective analysis of data from ...a patient cohort with genetically characterized UM. All patients treated for UM in the Liverpool Ocular Oncology Centre between 2007 and 2014, who had a prognostic genetic tumor analysis. Patients were subdivided into those with small (≤2.5 mm thickness) and large (>2.5 mm thickness) tumors. Survival analyses were performed using Gray rank statistics to calculate absolute probabilities of dying as a result of metastatic UM. The 5-year absolute risk of metastatic mortality of those with small monosomy 3 UM was significantly lower (23%) compared to the larger tumor group (50%) (p = 0.003). Small disomy 3 UM also had a lower absolute risk of metastatic mortality (0.8%) than large disomy 3 UM (6.4%) (p = 0.007). Hazard rates showed similar differences even with lead time bias correction estimates. We therefore conclude that earlier treatment of all small UM, particularly monosomy 3 UM, reduces the risk of metastatic disease and death. Our results would support molecular studies of even small UM, rather than ‘watch-and-wait strategies’.
Metastatic death from uveal melanoma occurs almost exclusively with tumors showing monosomy of chromosome 3. However, approximately 5% of patients with a disomy 3 uveal melanoma develop metastases, ...and a further 5% of monosomy 3 uveal melanoma patients exhibit disease-free survival for >5 years. In the present study, whole-genome microarrays were used to interrogate four clinically well-defined subgroups of uveal melanoma: i) disomy 3 uveal melanoma with long-term survival; ii) metastasizing monosomy 3 uveal melanoma; iii) metastasizing disomy 3 uveal melanoma; and iv) monosomy 3 uveal melanoma with long-term survival. Cox regression and Kaplan–Meier survival analysis identified that amplification of the CNKSR3 gene (log-rank, P = 0.022) with an associated increase in its protein expression (log-rank, P = 0.011) correlated with longer patient survival. Although little is known about CNKSR3, the correlation of protein expression with increased survival suggests a biological function in uveal melanoma, possibly working to limit metastatic progression of monosomy 3 uveal melanoma cells.
To determine intratumor genetic heterogeneity in uveal melanoma (UM) by multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tumor tissues.
DNA was ...extracted from whole tumor sections and from two to nine different areas microdissected from 32 FFPE UMs. Thirty-one loci on chromosomes 1, 3, 6, and 8 were tested with MLPA for copy number changes. The tumor was considered heterogeneous at a locus if (1) the difference in dosage quotients (DQs) of any two areas was 0.2 or more, and (2) the DQs of the areas belonged to different ranges.
Comparison of MLPA data obtained from microdissected areas of the UMs showed heterogeneity in 1 to 26 examined loci in 24 (75%) tumors, with only 25% of the tumors being homogeneous. Intratumor heterogeneity of 3p12.2, 6p21.2, and 8q11.23 was most common, occurring in >30% of the UMs. Gains of chromosome 3 were observed in four UMs, with three of these tumors showing the highest degree of heterogeneity. Copy number variation was associated with differences in tumor cell type, but not with differences in tumor pigmentation or reactive inflammation. UMs with genetic heterogeneity across multiple sample sites showed equivocal MLPA results when the whole tumor section was examined. These results suggest that different clones dilute MLPA results.
Heterogeneity of chromosomal abnormalities of chromosomes 1, 3, 6, and 8 is present in most UMs. This heterogeneity causes equivocal MLPA results. One random tumor sample may not be representative of the whole tumor and, therefore, may be insufficient for prognostic testing.
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