The effects of horizontal resolution and the treatment of convection on simulation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation during boreal summer are analyzed in several innovative weather and climate ...model integrations. The simulations include: season-long integrations of the Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) with explicit clouds and convection; year-long integrations of the operational Integrated Forecast System (IFS) from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts at three resolutions (125, 39 and 16 km); seasonal simulations of the same model at 10 km resolution; and seasonal simulations of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) low-resolution climate model with and without an embedded two-dimensional cloud-resolving model in each grid box. NICAM with explicit convection simulates best the phase of the diurnal cycle, as well as many regional features such as rainfall triggered by advancing sea breezes or high topography. However, NICAM greatly overestimates mean rainfall and the magnitude of the diurnal cycle. Introduction of an embedded cloud model within the NCAR model significantly improves global statistics of the seasonal mean and diurnal cycle of rainfall, as well as many regional features. However, errors often remain larger than for the other higher-resolution models. Increasing resolution alone has little impact on the timing of daily rainfall in IFS with parameterized convection, yet the amplitude of the diurnal cycle does improve along with the representation of mean rainfall. Variations during the day in atmospheric prognostic fields appear quite similar among models, suggesting that the distinctive treatments of model physics account for the differences in representing the diurnal cycle of precipitation.
Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone (TC) activity is investigated in multiyear global climate simulations with the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS) at 10-km resolution forced by the observed ...records of sea surface temperature and sea ice. The results are compared to analogous simulations with the 16-, 39-, and 125-km versions of the model as well as observations.
In the North Atlantic, mean TC frequency in the 10-km model is comparable to the observed frequency, whereas it is too low in the other versions. While spatial distributions of the genesis and track densities improve systematically with increasing resolution, the 10-km model displays qualitatively more realistic simulation of the track density in the western subtropical North Atlantic. In the North Pacific, the TC count tends to be too high in the west and too low in the east for all resolutions. These model errors appear to be associated with the errors in the large-scale environmental conditions that are fairly similar in this region for all model versions.
The largest benefits of the 10-km simulation are the dramatically more accurate representation of the TC intensity distribution and the structure of the most intense storms. The model can generate a supertyphoon with a maximum surface wind speed of 68.4 m s−1. The life cycle of an intense TC comprises intensity fluctuations that occur in apparent connection with the variations of the eyewall/rainband structure. These findings suggest that a hydrostatic model with cumulus parameterization and of high enough resolution could be efficiently used to simulate the TC intensity response (and the associated structural changes) to future climate change.
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BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Mosquitoes are carriers of tropical diseases, thus demanding a comprehensive understanding of their behaviour to devise effective disease control strategies. In this article we show that machine ...learning can provide a performance assessment of 2D and 3D machine vision techniques and thereby guide entomologists towards appropriate experimental approaches for behaviour assessment. Behaviours are best characterised via tracking--giving a full time series of information. However, tracking systems vary in complexity. Single-camera imaging yields two-component position data which generally are a function of all three orthogonal components due to perspective; however, a telecentric imaging setup gives constant magnification with respect to depth and thereby measures two orthogonal position components. Multi-camera or holographic techniques quantify all three components. In this study a 3D mosquito mating swarm dataset was used to generate equivalent 2D data via telecentric imaging and a single camera at various imaging distances. The performance of the tracking systems was assessed through an established machine learning classifier that differentiates male and non-male mosquito tracks. SHAPs analysis has been used to explore the trajectory feature values for each model. The results reveal that both telecentric and single-camera models, when placed at large distances from the flying mosquitoes, can produce equivalent accuracy from a classifier as well as preserve characteristic features without resorting to more complex 3D tracking techniques. Caution should be exercised when employing a single camera at short distances as classifier balanced accuracy is reduced compared to that from 3D or telecentric imaging; the trajectory features also deviate compared to those from the other datasets. It is postulated that measurement of two orthogonal motion components is necessary to optimise the accuracy of machine learning classifiers based on trajectory data. The study increases the evidence base for using machine learning to determine behaviours from insect trajectory data.
ENSO Prediction in Project Minerva Zhu, Jieshun; Huang, Bohua; Cash, Ben ...
Journal of climate,
03/2015, Letnik:
28, Številka:
5
Journal Article
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This study examines El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction in Project Minerva, a recent collaboration between the Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies (COLA) and the European Centre for ...Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The focus is primarily on the impact of the atmospheric horizontal resolution on ENSO prediction, but the effect from different ensemble sizes is also discussed. Particularly, three sets of 7-month hindcasts performed with ECMWF prediction system are compared, starting from 1 May (1 November) during 1982–2011 (1982–2010): spectral T319 atmospheric resolution with 15 ensembles, spectral T639 with 15 ensembles, and spectral T319 with 51 ensembles. The analysis herein shows that simply increasing either ensemble size from 15 to 51 or atmospheric horizontal resolution from T319 to T639 does not necessarily lead to major improvement in the ENSO prediction skill with current climate models. For deterministic prediction skill metrics, the three sets of predictions do not produce a significant difference in either anomaly correlation or root-mean-square error (RMSE). For probabilistic metrics, the increased atmospheric horizontal resolution generates larger ensemble spread, and thus increases the ratio between the intraensemble spread and RMSE. However, there is little change in the categorical distributions of predicted SST anomalies, and consequently there is little difference among the three sets of hindcasts in terms of probabilistic metrics or prediction reliability.
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Point cloud registration is a key process in multi-view 3D measurements. Its precision affects the measurement precision directly. However, in the case of the point clouds with non-overlapping areas ...or curvature invariant surface, it is difficult to achieve a high precision. A high precision registration method based on sphere feature constraint is presented to overcome the difficulty in the paper. Some known sphere features with constraints are used to construct virtual overlapping areas. The virtual overlapping areas provide more accurate corresponding point pairs and reduce the influence of noise. Then the transformation parameters between the registered point clouds are solved by an optimization method with weight function. In that case, the impact of large noise in point clouds can be reduced and a high precision registration is achieved. Simulation and experiments validate the proposed method.
The impact of sampling variability on the correlation between all-India rainfall (AIR) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is investigated in a large ensemble of seasonal climate simulations made ...using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Ensemble Prediction System at T319 (64 km). The analyzed runs consist of 51 ensemble members initialized each May 1 for the period 1980–2011 and integrated for 7 months. 10,000 pairs of 32-year timeseries of June–September (JJAS) mean AIR and NINO3 indices are created from this database by randomly drawing one of the 51 ensemble members for each year. The correlation between each pair of AIR and NINO3 series is then calculated, generating a distribution of AIR–NINO3 correlation values. The model is reinitialized with observations each May 1 and thus all members are drawn from the same background state by construction and any differences in correlation are attributable to sampling variability. The spread in the calculated correlation values and the differences between 32-year segments are sufficient to explain the observed variations in AIR–NINO3 correlation since the beginning of the 1900s, including the sharp decrease in correlation strength since the late 1970s. Sampling variability thus represents a strong null hypothesis for the observed changes and one that cannot be rejected at the 95 % level based on our simulations.
Global simulations have been conducted with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts operational model run at T1279 resolution for multiple decades representing climate from the late ...twentieth and late twenty-first centuries. Changes in key components of the water cycle are examined, focusing on variations at short time scales. Metrics of coupling and feedbacks between soil moisture and surface fluxes and between surface fluxes and properties of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) are inspected. Features of precipitation and other water cycle trends from coupled climate model consensus projections are well simulated. Extreme 6-hourly rainfall totals become more intense over much of the globe, suggesting an increased risk for flash floods. Seasonal-scale droughts are projected to escalate over much of the subtropics and midlatitudes during summer, while tropical and winter droughts become less likely. These changes are accompanied by an increase in the responsiveness of surface evapotranspiration to soil moisture variations. Even though daytime PBL depths increase over most locations in the next century, greater latent heat fluxes also occur over most land areas, contributing a larger energy effect per unit mass of air, except over some semiarid regions. This general increase in land–atmosphere coupling is represented in a combined metric as a “land coupling index” that incorporates the terrestrial and atmospheric effects together. The enhanced feedbacks are consistent with the precipitation changes, but a causal connection cannot be made without further sensitivity studies. Nevertheless, this approach could be applied to the output of traditional climate change simulations to assess changes in land–atmosphere feedbacks.
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How tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the northwestern Pacific might change in a future climate is assessed using multidecadal Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-style and time-slice ...simulations with the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS) at 16-km and 125-km global resolution. Both models reproduce many aspects of the present-day TC climatology and variability well, although the 16-km IFS is far more skillful in simulating the full intensity distribution and genesis locations, including their changes in response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Both IFS models project a small change in TC frequency at the end of the twenty-first century related to distinct shifts in genesis locations. In the 16-km IFS, this shift is southward and is likely driven by the southeastward penetration of the monsoon trough/subtropical high circulation system and the southward shift in activity of the synoptic-scale tropical disturbances in response to the strengthening of deep convective activity over the central equatorial Pacific in a future climate. The 16-km IFS also projects about a 50% increase in the power dissipation index, mainly due to significant increases in the frequency of the more intense storms, which is comparable to the natural variability in the model. Based on composite analysis of large samples of supertyphoons, both the development rate and the peak intensities of these storms increase in a future climate, which is consistent with their tendency to develop more to the south, within an environment that is thermodynamically more favorable for faster development and higher intensities. Coherent changes in the vertical structure of supertyphoon composites show system-scale amplification of the primary and secondary circulations with signs of contraction, a deeper warm core, and an upward shift in the outflow layer and the frequency of the most intense updrafts. Considering the large differences in the projections of TC intensity change between the 16-km and 125-km IFS, this study further emphasizes the need for high-resolution modeling in assessing potential changes in TC activity.
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BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Seasonal forecast skill of the basinwide and regional tropical cyclone (TC) activity in an experimental coupled prediction system based on the ECMWF System 4 is assessed. As part of a collaboration ...between the Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies (COLA) and the ECMWF called Project Minerva, the system is integrated at the atmospheric horizontal spectral resolutions of T319, T639, and T1279. Seven-month hindcasts starting from 1 May for the years 1980–2011 are produced at all three resolutions with at least 15 ensemble members. The Minerva system demonstrates statistically significant skill for retrospective forecasts of TC frequency and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the North Atlantic (NA), eastern North Pacific (EP), and western North Pacific. While the highest scores overall are achieved in the North Pacific, the skill in the NA appears to be limited by an overly strong influence of the tropical Pacific variability. Higher model resolution improves skill scores for the ACE and, to a lesser extent, the TC frequency, even though the influence of large-scale climate variations on these TC activity measures is largely independent of resolution changes. The biggest gain occurs in transition from T319 to T639. Significant skill in regional TC forecasts is achieved over broad areas of the Northern Hemisphere. The highest-resolution hindcasts exhibit additional locations with skill in the NA and EP, including land-adjacent areas. The feasibility of regional intensity forecasts is assessed. In the presence of the coupled model biases, the benefits of high resolution for seasonal TC forecasting may be underestimated.
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BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
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