Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularick und Volker Trebesch, Kiel Institut für Weltwirtschaft, durchleuchten in einer aktuellen Studie die wirtschaftlichen und politischen Folgen von Populismus. Sie stellen ...fest, dass Populismus zu einem langsameren Wirtschaftswachstum führt, demokratische Institutionen untergräbt und ein Land anfälliger für zukünftige populistische Regierungen machen kann.
We study central bank interventions in times of severe distress (mid-2010), using a unique bond-level dataset of ECB purchases of Greek sovereign debt. ECB bond buying had a large impact on the price ...of short and medium maturity bonds, resulting in a remarkable “twist” of the Greek yield curve. However, the effects were limited to those sovereign bonds actually bought. We find little evidence for positive effects on market quality, or spill-overs to close substitute bonds, CDS markets, or corporate bonds. Hence, our findings attest to the power of central bank intervention in times of crisis, but also suggest that in highly distressed situations, this power may not extend beyond those assets actually purchased.
What Explains Sovereign Debt Litigation? Schumacher, Julian; Trebesch, Christoph; Enderlein, Henrik
The Journal of law & economics,
08/2015, Letnik:
58, Številka:
3
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
We study the occurrence of holdout litigation in the context of sovereign defaults. The number of creditor lawsuits against foreign governments has strongly increased over the past decades, but there ...is a large variation across crisis events. Why are some defaults followed by litigation and others not? What explains the general increase in lawsuits? We address these questions using an economic model of litigation and a new data set capturing the near universe of cases filed against defaulting sovereigns. We find that creditors are more likely to litigate when debt restructurings are large, when governments impose high losses (haircuts), and when the defaulting country is more vulnerable to litigation (open economies and those with a low legal capacity). We conclude that sovereign debt lawsuits can be predicted reasonably well with a simple framework from the law and economics literature.
Two centuries of Greek debt crises highlight the pitfalls of relying on external financing. Since its independence in 1829, the Greek government has defaulted four times on its external ...creditors—with striking historical parallels. Each crisis is preceded by a period of heavy borrowing from foreign private creditors. As repayment difficulties arise, foreign governments step in, help to repay the private creditors, and demand budget cuts and adjustment programs as a condition for the official bailout loans; political interference from abroad mounts, and a prolonged episode of debt overhang and financial autarky follows. We conclude that these cycles of external debt and dependence are a perennial theme of Greek history, as well as in other countries that have been "addicted" to foreign savings. At present, there is considerable evidence to suggest that a substantial haircut on external debt is needed to restore the economic viability of Greece. Even with that, a policy priority for the country should be to reorient, to the extent possible, toward domestic sources of funding.
SOVEREIGN DEBT RELIEF AND ITS AFTERMATH Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph
Journal of the European Economic Association,
02/2016, Letnik:
14, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Hidden Defaults Horn, Sebastian; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph
AEA papers and proceedings,
05/2022, Letnik:
112
Journal Article
Recenzirano
China's lending boom to developing countries is morphing into defaults and debt distress. Given the secrecy surrounding China's loans, the associated defaults remain “hidden,” as missed payments and ...restructuring details are not disclosed. We construct an encompassing dataset of sovereign debt restructurings with Chinese lenders and find that these credit events are surprisingly frequent, exceeding the number of sovereign bond or Paris Club restructurings. Chinese lenders follow a resolution approach reminiscent of 1980s Western lenders; they seldom provide deep debt relief with face value reduction. If history is any guide, multiyear debt workouts with serial restructurings lie in store.
Human trafficking is a humanitarian problem of global scale, but quantitative research on the issue barely exists. This paper is the first attempt to analyze the economics of human trafficking and ...labour migration based on micro data, using unique household surveys from Belarus, Bulgaria, Moldova, Romania, and Ukraine. We find that individual trafficking risks are much higher in regions with large emigration flows. The reasons are lower recruitment costs for traffickers in emigration areas and, to a less extent, more negative self-selection into migration. Our results also indicate that illegal migration increases trafficking risks and that better information, e.g. through awareness campaigns, might be an effective strategy to reduce the crime. These findings may help policymakers to better target anti-trafficking efforts.
Debt Distress on China’s Belt and Road Horn, Sebastian; Parks, Bradley C.; Reinhart, Carmen M. ...
AEA papers and proceedings,
05/2023, Letnik:
113
Journal Article
Recenzirano
This paper shows that China's lending boom to developing country sovereigns has largely ended and that debt distress and defaults are increasingly common. Chinese lenders react to this challenge ...through two main coping strategies: first, bilateral sovereign debt restructurings–typically with maturity extensions but no face value cuts–and, second, rescue loans that allow debtors to avoid or delay default. Low-income countries tend to receive debt restructurings, whereas emerging market countries are more likely to receive rescue loans. We speculate that the differential crisis response is due to the different exposure levels of Chinese state banks.
Populist Leadership and Economic Decline Schularick, Moritz; Trebesch, Christoph; Funke, Manuel
Beyond Neoliberalism and Neo-illiberalism,
05/2024, Letnik:
1
Book Chapter
Odprti dostop
Most work on populism has investigated the reasons why voters choose populist leaders and governments. In our new research (Funke et al., 2023), we study the economic and political costs of populism ...and find that it leads to slower economic growth, undermines democratic institutions, and can leave a country more vulnerable to future populist governments.
The rise of populism in the past two decades has motivated much work on the determinants of populist voting (see the review by Guriev and Papaioannou, 2020, or Guiso et al., 2017, and Rodrik, 2017). In contrast, we still have limited knowledge of the economic
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