We analyzed the first 255 PCR-confirmed cases of monkeypox in Italy in 2022. Preliminary estimates indicate mean incubation period of 9.1 (95% CI 6.5-10.9) days, mean generation time of 12.5 (95% CI ...7.5-17.3) days, and reproduction number among men who have sex with men of 2.43 (95% CI 1.82-3.26).
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, ODKLJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
•Three patients were diagnosed with monkeypox in the United Kingdom in September 2018 the index case being from Nigeria.•Nigeria is currently experiencing a large outbreak of monkeypox with a total ...of 116 cases as per September 2018.•The median age of the cases are 31 years.•The cases belong to an age group not immunized against smallpox.•After the eradication of smallpox and the end of the immunization program a nice for a new poxvirus may have been created.
The identification of monkeypox in 3 separate patients in the United Kingdom in September raised media and political attention on an emerging public health threat. Nigeria, whose last confirmed case of monkeypox was in 1978, is currently experiencing an unusually large and outbreak of human monkeypox cases, a ‘One Human-Environmental-Animal Health’ approach is being effectively used to define and tackle the outbreak. As of 13th October 2018, there have been one hundred and sixteen confirmed cases the majority of whom are under 40 years. Over the past 20 years ten Central and West African countries have reported monkeypox cases which have risen exponentially. We review the history and evolution of monkeypox outbreaks in Africa and USA, the changing clinical presentations, and discuss possible factors underlying the increasing numbers being detected including the cessation of smallpox vaccination programs. Major knowledge gaps remain on the epidemiology, host reservoir, and emergence, transmission, pathogenesis and prevention of monkeypoz.
We estimated the weighted mean basic reproduction number (R
) of chikungunya virus based on outbreak size. R
was 3.4 (95% CI 2.4-4.2) and varied for 2 primary chikungunya mosquito vectors: 4.1 (95% ...CI 1.5-6.6) for Aedes aegypti and 2.8 (95% CI 1.8-3.8) for Ae. albopictus.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, ODKLJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
We report phylogenetic and mutational analysis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 virus strains from the Lazio region of Italy and provide information about the dynamics of virus ...spread. Data suggest effective containment of clade V strains, but subsequently, multiple waves of clade G strains were circulating widely in Europe.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, ODKLJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Detailed temporal analyses of complete (full) blood count (CBC) parameters, their evolution and relationship to patient age, gender, co-morbidities and management outcomes in survivors and ...non-survivors with COVID-19 disease, could identify prognostic clinical biomarkers.
From 29 January 2020 until 28 March 2020, we performed a longitudinal cohort study of COVID-19 inpatients at the Italian National Institute for Infectious Diseases, Rome, Italy. 9 CBC parameters were studied as continuous variables neutrophils, lymphocytes, monocytes, platelets, mean platelet volume, red blood cell count, haemoglobin concentration, mean red blood cell volume and red blood cell distribution width (RDW %). Model-based punctual estimates, as average of all patients' values, and differences between survivors and non-survivors, overall, and by co-morbidities, at specific times after symptoms, with relative 95% CI and P-values, were obtained by marginal prediction and ANOVA- style joint tests. All analyses were carried out by STATA 15 statistical package.
379 COVID-19 patients 273 (72% were male; mean age was 61.67 (SD 15.60) were enrolled and 1,805 measures per parameter were analysed. Neutrophils' counts were on average significantly higher in non-survivors than in survivors (P<0.001) and lymphocytes were on average higher in survivors (P<0.001). These differences were time dependent. Average platelets' counts (P<0.001) and median platelets' volume (P<0.001) were significantly different in survivors and non-survivors. The differences were time dependent and consistent with acute inflammation followed either by recovery or by death. Anaemia with anisocytosis was observed in the later phase of COVID-19 disease in non-survivors only. Mortality was significantly higher in patients with diabetes (OR = 3.28; 95%CI 1.51-7.13; p = 0.005), obesity (OR = 3.89; 95%CI 1.51-10.04; p = 0.010), chronic renal failure (OR = 9.23; 95%CI 3.49-24.36; p = 0.001), COPD (OR = 2.47; 95% IC 1.13-5.43; p = 0.033), cardiovascular diseases (OR = 4.46; 95%CI 2.25-8.86; p = 0.001), and those >60 years (OR = 4.21; 95%CI 1.82-9.77; p = 0.001). Age (OR = 2.59; 95%CI 1.04-6.45; p = 0.042), obesity (OR = 5.13; 95%CI 1.81-14.50; p = 0.002), renal chronic failure (OR = 5.20; 95%CI 1.80-14.97; p = 0.002) and cardiovascular diseases (OR 2.79; 95%CI 1.29-6.03; p = 0.009) were independently associated with poor clinical outcome at 30 days after symptoms' onset.
Increased neutrophil counts, reduced lymphocyte counts, increased median platelet volume and anaemia with anisocytosis, are poor prognostic indicators for COVID19, after adjusting for the confounding effect of obesity, chronic renal failure, COPD, cardiovascular diseases and age >60 years.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Since August 2023, outbreaks of dengue virus (DENV) infection have occurred in Italy. We report 2 autochthonous case-patients and their extended follow-up. Despite persistent DENV detected in blood ...by PCR, results for antigenomic DENV RNA were negative after day 5, suggesting that a 5-day isolation period is adequate to avoid secondary cases.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, ODKLJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
•Lazio region mpox prevention strategies included social and public health measures.•The vaccination campaign was an opportunity to inform those at risk of mpox adequately.•Mpox slowdown could result ...from mitigation strategies and vaccine effectiveness.•Vaccination campaign plays a role in the decline of mpox cases.•Integrating vaccination campaigns with information and sensitization is crucial.
A pre-exposure vaccination campaign to prevent the spread of the mpox virus was initiated in Italy in August 2022. We explore the possible factors affecting the trend of mpox cases in an Italian region (Lazio) with a rapid roll-out of the vaccination campaign.
We estimated the impact of the communication and vaccination campaign by fitting a Poisson segmented regression model. Results By September 30, 2692, high-risk men who have sex with men had received at least one dose of vaccine, with a vaccination coverage of 37%. The analysis of surveillance data showed a significant decreasing trend in the number of mpox cases starting from the second week after vaccination (incidence rate ratio 0.452 0.331-0.618).
The reported trend in mpox cases is likely to result from a combination of multiple social and public health factors combined with a vaccination campaign.
Infection with Ebola virus (EBOV) results in a life-threatening disease, with reported mortality rates between 50%-70%. The factors that determine patient survival are poorly understood; however, ...clinical observations indicate that EBOV viremia may be associated with fatal outcome. We conducted a study of the kinetics of Zaire EBOV viremia in patients with EBOV disease (EVD) who were managed at an Ebola Treatment Centre in Sierra Leone during the recent West African outbreak.
Data from 84 EVD patients (38 survivors, 46 nonsurvivors) were analyzed, and EBOV viremia was quantified between 2 and 13 days after symptom onset. Time since symptom onset and clinical outcome were used as independent variables to compare EBOV viral kinetics in survivors and nonsurvivors.
In all patients, EBOV viremia kinetics was a quadratic function of time; however, EBOV viremia was 0.94 logarithm (log) copies per ml (cp/ml) (P = 0.011) higher in nonsurvivors than in survivors from day 2 after the onset of symptoms. Survivors reached peak viremia levels at an earlier time after symptom onset than nonsurvivors (day 5 versus day 7) and had lower mean peak viremia levels compared with nonsurvivors (7.46 log cp/ml; 95% CI, 7.17-7.76 vs. 8.60 log cp/ml; 95% CI, 8.27-8.93). Before reaching peak values, EBOV viremia similarly increased both in survivors and nonsurvivors; however, the decay of viremia after the peak was much stronger in survivors than in nonsurvivors.
Our results demonstrate that plasma concentrations of EBOV are markedly different between survivors and nonsurvivors at very early time points after symptom onset and may be predicative of outcome. Further studies focused on the early phase of the disease will be required to identify the causal and prognostic factors that determine patient outcome.
Italian Ministry of Health; Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs; EMERGENCY's private donations; and Royal Engineers for DFID-UK.
Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a mosquito-borne infection that is emerging in temperate areas of Europe, following the expansion of one of its vector species, Aedes albopictus. Although CHIKV fever is ...a self-limiting disease, with a clinical syndrome often resolving within few days, it can also cause severe sequelae, including chronic polyarthralgia lasting up to 5 years. Additionally, CHIKV outbreaks may limit blood bank donations, adding economic burden on the health system. Public health authorities in Europe need to increase their preparedness against this emerging threat. Two large CHIKV outbreaks occurred in Italy in 2007 and 2017, with hundreds of cases and significant geographical spread. The aim of this paper is to review and compare the 2 Italian outbreaks in terms of available estimates of key epidemiological features, patient clinical presentation, virus and immunological characteristics, and public health response. Recommendations for public health and future directions for research are also discussed and highlighted. Key results Both outbreaks started in small towns, but cases were also detected in nearby larger cities where transmission was limited to small clusters. The time spans between the first and the last symptom onsets were similar between the 2 outbreaks, and the delay from the symptom onset of the index case and the first case notified was considerable. Comparable infection and transmission rates were observed in laboratory. The basic reproductive number (R.sub.0) was estimated in the range of 1.8-6 (2007) and 1.5-2.6 (2017). Clinical characteristics were similar between outbreaks, and no acute complications were reported, though a higher frequency of ocular symptoms, myalgia, and rash was observed in 2017. Very little is known about the immune mediator profile of CHIKV-infected patients during the 2 outbreaks. Regarding public health responses, after the 2007 outbreak, the Italian Ministry of Health developed national guidelines to implement surveillance and good practices to prevent and control autochthonous transmission. However, only a few regional authorities implemented it, and the perception of outbreak risk and knowledge of clinical symptoms and transmission dynamics by general practitioners remained low. Major conclusions Efforts should be devoted to developing suitable procedures for early detection of virus circulation in the population, possibly through the analysis of medical records in near real time. Increasing the awareness of CHIKV of general practitioners and public health officials through tailored education may be effective, especially in small coastal towns where the outbreak risk may be higher. A key element is also the shift of citizen awareness from considering Aedes mosquitoes not only as a nuisance problem but also as a public health one. We advocate the need of strengthening the surveillance and of promoting the active participation of the communities to prevent and contain future outbreaks.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
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