Our understanding of the global scale of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection remains incomplete: Routine surveillance data underestimate infection and cannot infer ...on population immunity; there is a predominance of asymptomatic infections, and uneven access to diagnostics. We meta-analyzed SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence studies, standardized to those described in the World Health Organization's Unity protocol (WHO Unity) for general population seroepidemiological studies, to estimate the extent of population infection and seropositivity to the virus 2 years into the pandemic.
We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis, searching MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, preprints, and grey literature for SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence published between January 1, 2020 and May 20, 2022. The review protocol is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020183634). We included general population cross-sectional and cohort studies meeting an assay quality threshold (90% sensitivity, 97% specificity; exceptions for humanitarian settings). We excluded studies with an unclear or closed population sample frame. Eligible studies-those aligned with the WHO Unity protocol-were extracted and critically appraised in duplicate, with risk of bias evaluated using a modified Joanna Briggs Institute checklist. We meta-analyzed seroprevalence by country and month, pooling to estimate regional and global seroprevalence over time; compared seroprevalence from infection to confirmed cases to estimate underascertainment; meta-analyzed differences in seroprevalence between demographic subgroups such as age and sex; and identified national factors associated with seroprevalence using meta-regression. We identified 513 full texts reporting 965 distinct seroprevalence studies (41% low- and middle-income countries LMICs) sampling 5,346,069 participants between January 2020 and April 2022, including 459 low/moderate risk of bias studies with national/subnational scope in further analysis. By September 2021, global SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence from infection or vaccination was 59.2%, 95% CI 56.1% to 62.2%. Overall seroprevalence rose steeply in 2021 due to infection in some regions (e.g., 26.6% 24.6 to 28.8 to 86.7% 84.6% to 88.5% in Africa in December 2021) and vaccination and infection in others (e.g., 9.6% 8.3% to 11.0% in June 2020 to 95.9% 92.6% to 97.8% in December 2021, in European high-income countries HICs). After the emergence of Omicron in March 2022, infection-induced seroprevalence rose to 47.9% 41.0% to 54.9% in Europe HIC and 33.7% 31.6% to 36.0% in Americas HIC. In 2021 Quarter Three (July to September), median seroprevalence to cumulative incidence ratios ranged from around 2:1 in the Americas and Europe HICs to over 100:1 in Africa (LMICs). Children 0 to 9 years and adults 60+ were at lower risk of seropositivity than adults 20 to 29 (p < 0.001 and p = 0.005, respectively). In a multivariable model using prevaccination data, stringent public health and social measures were associated with lower seroprevalence (p = 0.02). The main limitations of our methodology include that some estimates were driven by certain countries or populations being overrepresented.
In this study, we observed that global seroprevalence has risen considerably over time and with regional variation; however, over one-third of the global population are seronegative to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Our estimates of infections based on seroprevalence far exceed reported Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases. Quality and standardized seroprevalence studies are essential to inform COVID-19 response, particularly in resource-limited regions.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Phase 3 randomized-controlled trials have provided promising results of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy, ranging from 50 to 95% against symptomatic disease as the primary endpoints, resulting in emergency ...use authorization/listing for several vaccines. However, given the short duration of follow-up during the clinical trials, strict eligibility criteria, emerging variants of concern, and the changing epidemiology of the pandemic, many questions still remain unanswered regarding vaccine performance. Post-introduction vaccine effectiveness evaluations can help us to understand the vaccine's effect on reducing infection and disease when used in real-world conditions. They can also address important questions that were either not studied or were incompletely studied in the trials and that will inform evolving vaccine policy, including assessment of the duration of effectiveness; effectiveness in key subpopulations, such as the very old or immunocompromised; against severe disease and death due to COVID-19; against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern; and with different vaccination schedules, such as number of doses and varying dosing intervals. WHO convened an expert panel to develop interim best practice guidance for COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness evaluations. We present a summary of the interim guidance, including discussion of different study designs, priority outcomes to evaluate, potential biases, existing surveillance platforms that can be used, and recommendations for reporting results.
The purpose of this study was to characterize the nasopharyngeal microbiota of infants with possible and confirmed pertussis compared to healthy controls.
This prospective study included all infants ...<1 year with microbiologically confirmed diagnosis of pertussis attended at a University Hospital over a 12-month period. For each confirmed case, up to 2 consecutive patients within the same age range and meeting the clinical case definition of pertussis but testing PCR-negative were included as possible cases. A third group of asymptomatic infants (healthy controls) were also included. Nasopharyngeal microbiota was characterized by sequencing the V3-V4 region of the 16S rRNA gene. Common respiratory DNA/RNA viral co-infection was tested by multiplex PCR.
Twelve confirmed cases, 21 possible cases and 9 healthy controls were included. Confirmed whooping cough was primarily driven by detection of Bordetella with no other major changes on nasopharyngeal microbiota. Possible cases had limited abundance or absence of Bordetella and a distinctive microbiota with lower bacterial richness and diversity and higher rates of viral co-infection than both confirmed cases and healthy controls. Bordetella reads determined by 16S rRNA gene sequencing were found in all 12 confirmed cases (100%), 3 out of the 21 possible cases (14.3%) but in any healthy control.
This study supports the usefulness of 16S rRNA gene sequencing for improved sensitivity on pertussis diagnosis compared to real-time PCR and to understand other microbial changes occurring in the nasopharynx in children <1 year old with suspected whooping cough compared to healthy controls.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
•The overall severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) secondary attack rate in this study was 17%.•Adults were more likely to be secondary cases than children.•Particular care ...should be taken if primary cases present with cough and rhinorrhoea.•Kissing a SARS-CoV-2 case or sharing a meal with a SARS-CoV-2 case increased the risk of infection.•Reducing contact in the household immediately is key to prevent onward transmission.
The secondary attack rate (SAR) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) was estimated, and the risk factors for infection among members of households with a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) index case were identified to inform preventive measures.
Between 3 August and 19 December 2020, a household transmission study was implemented based on a standardized World Health Organization protocol. Laboratory-confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection were recruited through the federal COVID-19 database. Trained contact tracers interviewed index cases and household members to collect information on demographic, clinical and behavioural factors. Contacts were followed up for 28 days to identify secondary infections. SAR was estimated and odds ratios (OR) were calculated for risk factors for transmission.
In total, 383 households and 793 contacts were included in this study. The overall SAR was 17% 95% confidence interval (CI) 14–21. Contacts had higher risk for infection if the primary case had both cough and runny nose (OR 4.31, 95% CI 1.60–11.63), if the contact was aged 18–49 years (OR 4.67, 95% CI 1.83–11.93), if the contact kissed the primary case (OR 3.16, 95% CI 1.19–8.43), or if the contact shared a meal with the primary case (OR 3.10, 95% CI 1.17–8.27).
These results add to the global literature by providing evidence from a middle-income setting. Standard preventive measures in households with positive cases remain critical to reduce transmission.
A multicentre case-control study based on sentinel practitioner surveillance networks from seven European countries was undertaken to estimate the effectiveness of 2009-2010 pandemic and seasonal ...influenza vaccines against medically attended influenza-like illness (ILI) laboratory-confirmed as pandemic influenza A (H1N1) (pH1N1).
Sentinel practitioners swabbed ILI patients using systematic sampling. We included in the study patients meeting the European ILI case definition with onset of symptoms >14 days after the start of national pandemic vaccination campaigns. We compared pH1N1 cases to influenza laboratory-negative controls. A valid vaccination corresponded to >14 days between receiving a dose of vaccine and symptom onset. We estimated pooled vaccine effectiveness (VE) as 1 minus the odds ratio with the study site as a fixed effect. Using logistic regression, we adjusted VE for potential confounding factors (age group, sex, month of onset, chronic diseases and related hospitalizations, smoking history, seasonal influenza vaccinations, practitioner visits in previous year). We conducted a complete case analysis excluding individuals with missing values and a multiple multivariate imputation to estimate missing values. The multivariate imputation (n = 2902) adjusted pandemic VE (PIVE) estimates were 71.9% (95% confidence interval CI 45.6-85.5) overall; 78.4% (95% CI 54.4-89.8) in patients <65 years; and 72.9% (95% CI 39.8-87.8) in individuals without chronic disease. The complete case (n = 1,502) adjusted PIVE were 66.0% (95% CI 23.9-84.8), 71.3% (95% CI 29.1-88.4), and 70.2% (95% CI 19.4-89.0), respectively. The adjusted PIVE was 66.0% (95% CI -69.9 to 93.2) if vaccinated 8-14 days before ILI onset. The adjusted 2009-2010 seasonal influenza VE was 9.9% (95% CI -65.2 to 50.9).
Our results suggest good protection of the pandemic monovalent vaccine against medically attended pH1N1 and no effect of the 2009-2010 seasonal influenza vaccine. However, the late availability of the pandemic vaccine and subsequent limited coverage with this vaccine hampered our ability to study vaccine benefits during the outbreak period. Future studies should include estimation of the effectiveness of the new trivalent vaccine in the upcoming 2010-2011 season, when vaccination will occur before the influenza season starts.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
In the third season of I-MOVE (Influenza Monitoring Vaccine Effectiveness in Europe), we undertook a multicentre case-control study based on sentinel practitioner surveillance networks in eight ...European Union (EU) member states to estimate 2010/11 influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against medically-attended influenza-like illness (ILI) laboratory-confirmed as influenza.
Using systematic sampling, practitioners swabbed ILI/ARI patients within seven days of symptom onset. We compared influenza-positive to influenza laboratory-negative patients among those meeting the EU ILI case definition. A valid vaccination corresponded to > 14 days between receiving a dose of vaccine and symptom onset. We used multiple imputation with chained equations to estimate missing values. Using logistic regression with study as fixed effect we calculated influenza VE adjusting for potential confounders. We estimated influenza VE overall, by influenza type, age group and among the target group for vaccination.
We included 2019 cases and 2391 controls in the analysis. Adjusted VE was 52% (95% CI 30-67) overall (N = 4410), 55% (95% CI 29-72) against A(H1N1) and 50% (95% CI 14-71) against influenza B. Adjusted VE against all influenza subtypes was 66% (95% CI 15-86), 41% (95% CI -3-66) and 60% (95% CI 17-81) among those aged 0-14, 15-59 and ≥60 respectively. Among target groups for vaccination (N = 1004), VE was 56% (95% CI 34-71) overall, 59% (95% CI 32-75) against A(H1N1) and 63% (95% CI 31-81) against influenza B.
Results suggest moderate protection from 2010-11 trivalent influenza vaccines against medically-attended ILI laboratory-confirmed as influenza across Europe. Adjusted and stratified influenza VE estimates are possible with the large sample size of this multi-centre case-control. I-MOVE shows how a network can provide precise summary VE measures across Europe.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
IntroductionCritical questions remain about COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) in real-world settings, particularly in middle-income countries. We describe a study protocol to evaluate COVID-19 VE ...in preventing laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in health workers (HWs) in Albania, an upper-middle-income country.Methods and analysisIn this 12-month prospective cohort study, we enrolled HWs at three hospitals in Albania. HWs are vaccinated through the routine COVID-19 vaccine campaign. Participants completed a baseline survey about demographics, clinical comorbidities, and infection risk behaviours. Baseline serology samples were also collected and tested against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, and respiratory swabs were collected and tested for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR. Participants complete weekly symptom questionnaires and symptomatic participants have a respiratory swab collected, which is tested for SARS-CoV-2. At 3, 6, 9 months and 12 months of the study, serology will be collected and tested for antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein and spike protein. VE will be estimated using a piecewise proportional hazards model (VE=1−HR).Baseline dataFrom February to May 2021, 1504 HWs were enrolled. The median age was 44 (range: 22–71) and 78% were female. At enrolment, 72% of participants were seropositive for SARS-CoV-2. 56% of participants were vaccinated with one dose, of whom 98% received their first shot within 4 days of enrolment. All HWs received the Pfizer BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine.Ethics and disseminationThe study protocol and procedures were reviewed and approved by the WHO Ethical Review Board, reference number CERC.0097A, and the Albanian Institute of Public Health Ethical Review Board, reference number 156. All participants have provided written informed consent to participate in this study. The primary results of this study will be published in a peer-reviewed journal at the time of completion.Trial registration numberNCT04811391.
Following the 2005-6 chikungunya outbreak, a project to strengthen regional Public Health preparedness in the Indian Ocean was implemented. It includes the Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion ...(France) and Seychelles. A Field Epidemiology Training Programme (FETP-OI) was started in 2011 to develop a pool of well-trained intervention epidemiologists.
The FETP-OI consists of two years of supervised, learning-by-doing, on-the-job training at national sites involved in disease surveillance and response. It includes work placements at the Madagascar Pasteur Institute and the French regional epidemiology unit in Reunion and up to three training courses per year. Training objectives include epidemiological surveillance, outbreak investigations, research studies, scientific communication and transfer of competencies.
In four years, two cohorts of in total 15 fellows originating from four countries followed the FETP-OI. They led 42 surveillance projects (71% routine management, 14% evaluations, 12% setup, 3% other) and investigated 36 outbreak alerts, 58% of them in Madagascar; most investigations (72%) concerned foodborne pathogens, plague or malaria. Fellows performed 18 studies (44% descriptive analyses, 22% disease risk factors, and 34% on other subjects), and presented results during regional and international conferences through 26 oral and 15 poster presentations. Four articles were published in regional Public Health bulletins and several scientific manuscripts are in process.
The FETP-OI has created a regional force of intervention consisting of field epidemiologists and trained supervisors using the same technical language and epidemiological methods. The third cohort is now ongoing. Technically and financially sustainable FETP-OI projects help addressing public health priorities of the Indian Ocean.
Highlights • Vaccine effectiveness and vaccination programme impact are not consistently defined and are widely confused. • We delineate these effects based on the exposure considered and the ...population compared. • Vaccine studies measuring them are based on a number of assumptions. • Most of these assumptions are not fully respected in observational studies. • Potential confounding and biases must be minimized in study design and analyses.
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