Despite escalating expenditures in firefighting, extreme fire events continue to pose a major threat to ecosystem services and human communities in Mediterranean areas. Developing a safe and ...effective fire response is paramount to efficiently restrict fire spread, reduce negative effects to natural values, prevent residential housing losses, and avoid causalties. Though current fire policies in most countries demand full suppression, few studies have attempted to identify the strategic locations where firefighting efforts would likely contain catastrophic fire events. The success in containing those fires that escape initial attack is determined by diverse structural factors such as ground accessibility, airborne support, barriers to surface fire spread, and vegetation impedance. In this study, we predicted the success in fire containment across Catalonia (northeastern Spain) using a model generated with random forest from detailed geospatial data and a set of 73 fire perimeters for the period 2008–2016. The model attained a high predictive performance (AUC = 0.88), and the results were provided at fine resolution (25 m) for the entire study area (32,108 km2). The highest success rates were found in agricultural plains along the nonburnable barriers such as major road corridors and largest rivers. Low levels of containment likelihood were predicted for dense forest lands and steep‐relief mountainous areas. The results can assist in suppression resource pre‐positioning and extended attack decision making, but also in strategic fuels management oriented at creating defensive locations and fragmenting the landscape in operational firefighting areas. Our modeling workflow and methods may serve as a baseline to generate locally adapted models in fire‐prone areas elsewhere.
•We explored subregional fire-weather associations within the Iberian Peninsula.•We investigated four pyroregions and three temporal scales of data aggregation.•Analyses revealed four different ...large-fire weather typologies.•‘Heat driven’ fires govern the broad pattern of large fire incidence.•Larger fires start under ‘seasonal droughts’ in the Northwest region.
The catastrophic events occurred in the Mediterranean basin in the last two decades have made large fires an increasingly prominent feature in the characterization of fire regimes. Large fires have turned forest and fire management focus to landscape fuels and extreme meteorological conditions at different spatial and temporal scales, since understanding fire-weather relations is essential to protect lives and assets from severe fires. For instance, synoptic conditions leading to anomalous and sudden warm episodes quickly increase fine fuel dryness, antecedent and persistent drought events decrease the moisture of coarse fuels, whereas strong winds increase fire spread by transferring heat to new burnable fuels more rapidly, or allowing spotting. ‘Aggregate’ indexes based on local meteorological variables like the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) have proved useful in estimating and summarizing fire danger into straightforward numerical representations, with the caveat that a same result may be produced by different combinations of weather variables. Analyzing fire-weather and danger components separately may help to understand the relative importance of each factor, or reveal specific interactions between them that trigger specific fire typologies (i.e. wind-driven). In this work we analyzed the influence of two FWI's components and their input weather variables in large fire incidence across the entire Iberian Peninsula. We explored several spatial (four regions) and temporal (three levels of aggregation, i.e., daily, weekly and monthly) aggregations to account for potential dissimilarities on fire-weather associations in space and time. Statistical analyses involved a multi-group PCA analysis to identify large fire-weather typologies (LFWT), later submitted to optimized hierarchical clustering to reveal underlying associations among LFWT. Results revealed four distinctive LFWT, labelled: ‘heat-driven’, ‘heat wave’, ‘seasonal drought’ and ‘wind-driven’, and six cluster associations with noticeable spatial differences. The bulk of fires started in the vicinity of the ‘Sierra de Estrela’ (Portugal), under average conditions of the four typologies, but leaning towards ‘seasonal drought’ conditions. Fires in the Mediterranean side, the largest within the IP, were associated to hot and dry spells (‘heat wave’) without remarkable drought events. Most relevant combinations of LWTs included temperature, wind speed and DC at daily and monthly scale, making them the main fire-weather factors driving large fires in the Iberian Peninsula.
In southern European regions, the few fires that escape initial attack (IA) account for most of the burned area. Nonetheless, limited effort has been conducted to develop spatiotemporal models aiming ...at improving pre-positioning and deployment of fire-fighting brigades on the first dispatch. To this end, we calibrated a model to assess the probability of containment of fire by IA in Catalonia (northeastern Spain). The model was trained using machine learning algorithms from georeferenced historical fire ignition locations, fire response and weather conditions. Our results indicated that early detection, ground accessibility, and aerial support governed the broad spatial pattern of fire containment probability, with strong gradients that ranged from lowest chances of containment in northwestern mountains to highest in the coastal belt. In turn, weather conditions and fire simultaneity were crucial to explain the differences during wildfire season. We found that fires igniting above the 85th percentile of temperature and wind speed, during simultaneous fire episodes (n > 10), and 12.5 km away from the nearest fire station will probably escape IA, and grow into large events. These hazardous fire danger conditions were met 13 days per year on average during the period 1998–2015, with 5 fire simultaneous episodes escaping IA that burned 1546 ha in total. Results were provided as a set of high-resolution raster grids (100 m), which replicated the most typical weather and fire occurrence scenarios that first responders are likely to face during the wildfire season. This study reveals existing limitations in the dominant fire exclusion policy of Mediterranean areas and advocates for a comprehensive long-term wildfire management solution. Our model may help inform science-based decision-making on IA and general fire response planning in the study area.
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•We generated a model to assess the success by initial attack in controlling fires.•Site accessibility and aerial support facilitated suppression under mild conditions.•Weather conditions and fire simultaneity largely influence effectiveness.•Outputs from each set of conditions were mapped into high resolution datasets.•Results can inform suppression resources pre-positioning and first dispatch planning.
The area affected by wildfires is experiencing an overall decrease in the Mediterranean European region. However, there is no clear trend associated to the incidence of large fire events, which ...continue to pose an important threat to assets-at-risk, while debates on control by meteorological or fuel drivers are ongoing. Understanding the underlying spatial and temporal patterns of large-fire drivers is of critical importance for a more efficient and science-based management, and specifically for improving wildfire season definition and informing fuel management.
Taking advantage of the reliable wildfire data available in Spain, we analyzed large fires (>100 ha) in the period 2010–2015 to outline homogenous spatial-temporal regions in terms of the influence of the main drivers of large-fire activity: temperature, wind speed, slope, distance to populated places and roads, and proximity to agricultural lands. We combined Geographically Weighted Logit Regression (GWLR) models to parameterize the marginal influence of the drivers, with optimized hierarchical clustering to define uniform regions in terms of the underlying driving factors. These regions were subsequently analyzed for monthly distribution of fire occurrence and associated fuel models.
We identified four different zones in terms of drivers' features, capturing dissimilar intra-annual patterns of fire activity and affected fuels: one covering the Mediterranean and two along the northern coast, and a fourth aggregation in the hinterlands that seems to act as transition area. The Mediterranean and hinterland were linked to weather-related summer ignitions, late and early summer respectively. The northern cluster gathers most winter fires starting in remote locations under steep slopes and strong wind conditions. The northwestern cluster accounts for most of the fire activity in Spain, related to complex relief and shrub-type fuels.
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•We presented a procedure to delineate uniform zones of large-fire incidence in Spain.•The approach was based on the role of fire drivers rather than fire regime features.•The analysis showed that the influence of weather was prevalent all over the region.•We identified four effective zones in terms of fire season and fuel treatment priorities.
Wildfires in the Mediterranean are strongly tied to human activities. Given their particular link with humans, which act as both initiators and suppressors, wildfire hazard is highly sensitive to ...socioeconomic changes and patterns. Many researchers have prompted the perils of sustaining the current management policy, the so-called ‘total fire exclusion’. This policy, coupled to increasingly fire-prone weather conditions, may lead to more hazardous fires in the mid-long run. Under this framework, the irruption of the COVID-19 pandemic adds to the ongoing situation. Facing the lack of an effective treatment, the only alternative was the implementation of strict lockdown strategies. The virtual halt of the system undoubtedly affected economic and social behavior, triggering cascading effects such as the drop in winter-spring wildfire activity. In this work, we discuss the main impacts, challenges and consequences that wildfire science may experience due to the pandemic situation, and identify potential opportunities for wildfire management. We investigate the recent evolution of burned area (retrieved from the MCD64A1 v006 MODIS product) in the EU Mediterranean region (Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Greece) to ascertain to what extent the 2020 winter-spring season was impacted by the public health response to COVID-19 (curfews and lockdowns). We accounted for weather conditions (characterized using the 6-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index; SPEI6) to disregard possible weather effects mediating fire activity. Our results suggest that, under similar drought-related circumstances (SPEI6 ≈ −0.7), the expected burned area in 2020 during the lockdown period in the EU (March–May) would lay somewhere within the range of 38,800 ha ± 18,379 ha. Instead, the affected area stands one order of magnitude below average (3325 ha). This stresses the need of considering the social dimension in the analysis of current and future wildfire impacts in the Mediterranean region.
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•The response to COVID-19 has caused noticeable environmental impacts.•The winter-spring season of 2020 is among the least fire-affected in the EU.•A sustained decrease in burned area may promote fuel accumulation.•Low fire activity, fire-prone conditions and budget limitations may foster EWEs in the future.
Southern European countries rely largely on fire suppression and ignition prevention to manage a growing wildfire problem. We explored a more wholistic, long-term approach based on priority maps for ...the implementation of diverse management options aimed at creating fire resilient landscapes, restoring cultural fire regimes, facilitating safe and efficient fire response, and creating fire-adapted communities. To illustrate this new comprehensive strategy for fire-prone Mediterranean areas, we developed and implemented the framework in Catalonia (northeastern Spain). We first used advanced simulation modeling methods to assess various wildfire exposure metrics across spatially changing fire-regime conditions, and these outputs were then combined with land use maps and historical fire occurrence data to prioritize different fuel and fire management options at the municipality level. Priority sites for fuel management programs concentrated in the central and northeastern high-hazard forestlands. The suitable areas for reintroducing fires in natural ecosystems located in scattered municipalities with ample lightning ignitions and minimal human presence. Priority areas for ignition prevention programs were mapped to populated coastal municipalities and main transportation corridors. Landscapes where fire suppression is the principal long-term strategy concentrated in agricultural plains with a high density of ignitions. Localized programs to build defensible space and improve self-protection on communities could be emphasized in the coastal wildland-urban interface and inner intermix areas from Barcelona and Gerona. We discuss how the results of this study can facilitate collaborative landscape planning and identify the constraints that prevent a longer term and more effective solution to better coexist with fire in southern European regions.
•We used modeled wildfire exposure to prioritize management alternatives in Catalonia.•Fuels treatments in forestlands were prioritized to create fire-resilient landscapes.•Lightning and pastoral fires were projected to restore cultural fire regimes.•We identified best municipalities for a safe and efficient wildfire response.•Promoting fire-adapted communities in highly exposed populated areas is a priority.
Background
The inflammatory cascade is the main cause of death in COVID-19 patients. Corticosteroids (CS) and tocilizumab (TCZ) are available to treat this escalation but which patients to administer ...it remains undefined.
Objective
We aimed to evaluate the efficacy of immunosuppressive/anti-inflammatory therapy in COVID-19, based on the degree of inflammation.
Design
A retrospective cohort study with data on patients collected and followed up from March 1st, 2020, to May 1st, 2021, from the nationwide Spanish SEMI-COVID-19 Registry. Patients under treatment with CS vs. those under CS plus TCZ were compared. Effectiveness was explored in 3 risk categories (low, intermediate, high) based on lymphocyte count, C-reactive protein (CRP), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), ferritin, and
d
-dimer values.
Patients
A total of 21,962 patients were included in the Registry by May 2021. Of these, 5940 met the inclusion criteria for the present study (5332 were treated with CS and 608 with CS plus TCZ).
Main Measures
The primary outcome of the study was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes were the composite variable of in-hospital mortality, requirement for high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC), non-invasive mechanical ventilation (NIMV), invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), or intensive care unit (ICU) admission.
Key Results
A total of 5940 met the inclusion criteria for the present study (5332 were treated with CS and 608 with CS plus TCZ). No significant differences were observed in either the low/intermediate-risk category (1.5% vs. 7.4%,
p
=0.175) or the high-risk category (23.1% vs. 20%,
p
=0.223) after propensity score matching. A statistically significant lower mortality was observed in the very high–risk category (31.9% vs. 23.9%,
p
=0.049).
Conclusions
The prescription of CS alone or in combination with TCZ should be based on the degrees of inflammation and reserve the CS plus TCZ combination for patients at high and especially very high risk.
Mediterranean forests and fire regimes are closely intertwined. Global change is likely to alter both forest dynamics and wildfire activity, ultimately threatening the provision of ecosystem services ...and posing greater risks to society. In this paper we evaluate future wildfire behavior by coupling climate projections with simulation models of forest dynamics and wildfire hazard. To do so, we explore different forest management scenarios reflecting different narratives related to EU forestry (promotion of carbon stocks, reduction of water vulnerability, biomass production and business-as-usual) under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate pathways in the period 2020–2100. We used as a study model pure submediterranean Pinus nigra forests of central Catalonia (NE Spain). Forest dynamics were simulated from the 3rd National Forest Inventory (143 stands) using SORTIE-nd software based on climate projections under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The climate products were also used to estimate fuel moisture conditions (both live and dead) and wind speed. Fuel parameters and fire behavior were then simulated, selecting crown fire initiation potential and rate of spread as key indicators. The results revealed consistent trade-offs between forest dynamics, climate and wildfire. Despite the clear influence exerted by climate, forest management modulates fire behavior, resulting in different trends depending on the climatic pathway. In general, the maintenance of current practices would result in the highest rates of crown fire activity, while management for water vulnerability reduction is postulated as the best alternative to surmount the increasingly hazardous conditions envisaged in RCP 8.5.
•We simulate forest, climate, and wildfire dynamics under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5.•We forecast wildfire hazard in terms of crown fire potential and rate of spread.•Current management practices will not be able to surmount the increased hazard.•Management for water vulnerability reduction is postulated as the best alternative.
IntroductionVestibular disorders in multiple sclerosis (MS) could have central or peripheral origin. Although the central aetiology is the most expected in MS, peripheral damage is also significant ...in this disease. The most prevalent effect of vestibular peripheral damage is benign paroxysmal positional vertigo (BPPV). Impairments of the posterior semicircular canals represent 60%–90% of cases of BPPV. The standard gold treatment for this syndrome is the Epley manoeuvre (EM), the effectiveness of which has been poorly studied in patients with MS. Only one retrospective research study and a case study have reported encouraging results for EM with regard to resolution of posterior semicircular canal BPPV. The aim of this future randomised controlled trial (RCT) is to assess the effectiveness of EM for BPPV in participants with MS compared with a sham manoeuvre.Methods and analysisThe current protocol describes an RCT with two-arm, parallel-group design. Randomisation, concealed allocation and double-blinding will be conducted to reduce possible bias. Participants and evaluators will be blinded to group allocation. At least 80 participants who meet all eligibility criteria will be recruited. Participants will have the EM or sham manoeuvre performed within the experimental or control group, respectively. The primary outcome of the study is changes in the Dix Hallpike test. The secondary outcome will be changes in self-perceived scales: Dizziness Handicap Inventory and Vestibular Disorders Activities of Daily Living Scale. The sample will be evaluated at baseline, immediately after the intervention and 48 hours postintervention.Ethics and disseminationThe study was approved by the Andalusian Review Board and Ethics Committee of Virgen Macarena-Virgen del Rocio Hospitals (ID 0107-N-20, 23 July 2020). The results of the research will be disseminated by the investigators to peer-reviewed journals.Trial registration number NCT04578262.
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