Pandemic influenza is a regularly recurring form of infectious disease; this work analyses its economic effects. Like many other infectious diseases influenza pandemics are usually of short, sharp ...duration. Human coronavirus is a less regularly recurring infectious disease. The human coronavirus pandemic of 2019 (COVID-19) has presented with seemingly high transmissibility and led to extraordinary socioeconomic disruption due to severe preventative measures by governments. To understand and compare these events, epidemiological and economic models are linked to capture the transmission of a pandemic from regional populations to regional economies and then across regional economies. In contrast to past pandemics, COVID-19 is likely to be of longer duration and more severe in its economic effects given the greater uncertainty surrounding its nature. The analysis indicates how economies are likely to be affected due to the risk-modifying behaviour in the form of preventative measures taken in response to the latest novel pandemic virus.
•The dynamic effects of pandemic influenza and human coronavirus are analysed.•Epidemiological and economic models are linked to capture the transmission from regional populations to regional economies.•COVID-19 is likely to be of longer duration and more severe in its economic effects than previous pandemics.•The analysis indicates how economies are likely to be affected due to risk-mitigating preventative measures.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is foundational to economic growth. Despite this, the Australian empirical literature is limited. Therefore we examine the empirical determinants of Australia's inflow ...of FDI to understand the factors that motivate FDI. Using autoregressive distributed lag models, the study also highlights how these determinants change across time. While inward FDI can be explained by various theories it is most effectively understood by Dunning's Ownership, Locational and Internalisation framework. Therefore, the factors most important in Australia to attracting FDI are monetary policy, productivity, a competitive tax structure, labour market flexibility and costs of trade and investment.
The resources and energy sectors make a significant contribution to economic performance in the economies of West Asia. In this study we explore the effect ambitious policies for resource efficiency ...and greenhouse gas abatement would have on West Asian economies and what their contribution to environmental sustainability could look like. We employ the Global Trade and Environmental Resource Model (GTEM-Resource) to empirically assess the economic and environmental implications of global policy initiatives in the region. Results show that resource efficiency and greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement policies are complementary in their effects. Resource efficiency policies boost resource use productivity in the region, reduce all categories of material extraction based on sustainable consumption and production behaviour and also caused by trade, and foster economic performance. By contrast, GHG emission abatement policies have a small effect on resource productivity but drive significant GHG reductions that are accompanied by reduced economic performance. When these two policies are combined, real GDP in West Asia is projected to increase by 8% relative to business-as-usual by 2060, while resource extraction and GHG emissions levels in the region would decline dramatically by 40% and 50%, respectively. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates would be much better off, compared to other countries in the region, with large increases in real GDP and major reductions in GHG emissions and resource extraction levels. Findings suggest that technology development and climate mitigation policies would result in a win-win solution for all countries in West Asia, contributing to maintaining well-being and protecting the environment on regional and global scales. This shows that there is a pathway to economic prosperity for resource-rich countries and regions.
•Resource Efficiency policies substantially foster economic growth in West Asia.•The Towards Sustainability scenario maintains sustainable development in West Asia.•Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Oman reduce their material extraction rates by over 46% by 2060.•Well-being indicators grow faster than resource extraction, with improved resource productivity.
Distinguishing household groups when estimating the linear expenditure system (LES) has substantial advantages. Using an Australian household survey to estimate the LES, we show that allowing for ...household heterogeneity improves the model's predictions and its economic properties. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model simulations reveal that allowing for heterogeneity of consumers opens up a new possible driver of long-term change in the economy's composition. The simplicity and parsimony of the LES account for its popularity, particularly in CGE models. The results underscore the practical importance of the disaggregated approach.
•Income and price elasticities are estimated for 20 goods.•Disaggregation by income quintile improves prediction quality of budget shares.•Disaggregated elasticities are incorporated in a CGE model.•Household heterogeneity appears to be a new driver of structural change.
The coronavirus (COVID‐19) pandemic brought economic recession that affected nations, businesses, and households globally. The severity of this global economic crisis is large and the impact has been ...asymmetric across socioeconomic groups. We examine the distributional effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic across household types using a specially‐designed model that combines macro (computable general equilibrium) and micro (heterogenous households) approaches. Computable general equilibrium models are able to capture behavioural changes in macroeconomic and sectoral variables but they often lack the rich distributional detail found in microsimulation models. In this paper, we address this limitation by incorporating 10,046 actual households into a computable general equilibrium model to capture the heterogeneity through which the pandemic may influence household behaviour. We find that the income effects are asymmetric across income groups leading to a slight increase in income inequality. The distributional effects are more progressive for non‐wage income sources and uniform for wage income. For younger cohorts, income changes are dominated by employment effects whereas income changes for older cohorts are dominated by changes in capital rentals and government transfers. Spatially, the income effects follow a similar pattern for city and non‐city dwellers.
This work applies propensity score matching to assess the impact of methamphetamine on mental health. Using Australian microdata from the 2013 National Drug Strategy Household Survey, Kessler scores ...of recent and non-recent methamphetamine users are analysed after controlling for confounding variables. The results support the decision to prepare frontline emergency service workers for the psychological issues present in those consuming methamphetamine. The results also highlight the importance for policy makers to develop effective harm reduction programmes. An estimate of the mental health costs associated with methamphetamine abuse is also presented, the findings of which strongly support additional government spending on harm reduction.
We analyse changes in the Australian gas industry during 1990s that were motivated by the Hilmer Reforms. We estimate the effects on real household income of the changes by combining a computable ...general equilibrium model with a microsimulation model. Although the structural changes were significant in their effects on the gas industry, they are estimated to have had minor effects on real household income in all Australian regions owing to the small size of the gas industry and household gas consumption at that time, and low importance of gas as an input to other industries. The changes are estimated to have slightly increased income inequality owing to the redistribution of income from labour to other primary factors.
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