Phosphorus losses from land to water will be impacted by climate change and land management for food production, with detrimental impacts on aquatic ecosystems. Here we use a unique combination of ...methods to evaluate the impact of projected climate change on future phosphorus transfers, and to assess what scale of agricultural change would be needed to mitigate these transfers. We combine novel high-frequency phosphorus flux data from three representative catchments across the UK, a new high-spatial resolution climate model, uncertainty estimates from an ensemble of future climate simulations, two phosphorus transfer models of contrasting complexity and a simplified representation of the potential intensification of agriculture based on expert elicitation from land managers. We show that the effect of climate change on average winter phosphorus loads (predicted increase up to 30% by 2050s) will be limited only by large-scale agricultural changes (e.g., 20-80% reduction in phosphorus inputs).The impact of climate change on phosphorus (P) loss from land to water is unclear. Here, the authors use P flux data, climate simulations and P transfer models to show that only large scale agricultural change will limit the effect of climate change on average winter P loads in three catchments across the UK.
This study aimed to synthesize and compare the prioritization strategies outlined in the national vaccination plans (NVPs) against Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) developed by countries in the ...Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region.
We conducted a comparative policy analysis based on COVID-19 NVPs.
We conducted a search strategy in three stages to identify NVPs for COVID-19 across 41 countries/territories in the LAC region. Sources included official governmental repositories, complementary Google searches, and less formal documentation. We extracted key variables and conducted a comparative policy analysis based on the prioritization criteria and specific prioritization groups.
The study identified 52 NVPs for COVID-19, corresponding to 27 (65.8 %) out of 41 countries/territories in the LAC region. Official national websites yielded documents for 12 countries. All NVPs included frontline healthcare personnel in the first prioritization phase/stage, whilst some included residents of long-term healthcare facilities, adults aged 60 years or more, and people with disabilities. The decision criteria for prioritization were declared in 14 countries/territories. Ethical considerations declared in five NVPs included human welfare, equality, solidarity, equity, and social justice as values.
The early stages of vaccination rollout in LAC countries prioritized protection of the healthcare system and epidemiological risk for severe disease. Few countries included ethical considerations in their NVPs, and global inequities in vaccine access and distribution led to varied protections for vulnerable populations across LAC. This analysis highlights the need for improved emergency-response capacity, planning, and enhanced multilateral cooperation in the LAC region for future public health emergencies.
We hypothesise that climate change, together with intensive agricultural systems, will increase the transfer of pollutants from land to water and impact on stream health. This study builds, for the ...first time, an integrated assessment of nutrient transfers, bringing together a) high-frequency data from the outlets of two surface water-dominated, headwater (~10km2) agricultural catchments, b) event-by-event analysis of nutrient transfers, c) concentration duration curves for comparison with EU Water Framework Directive water quality targets, d) event analysis of location-specific, sub-daily rainfall projections (UKCP, 2009), and e) a linear model relating storm rainfall to phosphorus load. These components, in combination, bring innovation and new insight into the estimation of future phosphorus transfers, which was not available from individual components. The data demonstrated two features of particular concern for climate change impacts. Firstly, the bulk of the suspended sediment and total phosphorus (TP) load (greater than 90% and 80% respectively) was transferred during the highest discharge events. The linear model of rainfall-driven TP transfers estimated that, with the projected increase in winter rainfall (+8% to +17% in the catchments by 2050s), annual event loads might increase by around 9% on average, if agricultural practices remain unchanged. Secondly, events following dry periods of several weeks, particularly in summer, were responsible for high concentrations of phosphorus, but relatively low loads. The high concentrations, associated with low flow, could become more frequent or last longer in the future, with a corresponding increase in the length of time that threshold concentrations (e.g. for water quality status) are exceeded. The results suggest that in order to build resilience in stream health and help mitigate potential increases in diffuse agricultural water pollution due to climate change, land management practices should target controllable risk factors, such as soil nutrient status, soil condition and crop cover.
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•Climate change may increase pollutant transfers from agricultural land.•High temporal resolution data enabled present day nutrient dynamics to be analysed.•High flow events (>Q10) transported >90% of sediment, >80% of phosphorus•Longer periods of low flow and high concentration will increase ecological risk.•Average phosphorus loads may increase by 9% with higher rainfall volume and intensity.
Zika virus (ZIKAV) is classically described as causing minor symptoms in adult patients, however neurologic complications have been recognized. The recent outbreak in Central and South America has ...resulted in serious illness in some adult patients. We report adult patients in Latin America diagnosed with ZIKAV infection admitted to Intensive Care Units (ICUs).
Multicenter, prospective case series of adult patients with laboratory diagnosis of ZIKAV in 16 ICUs in 8 countries.
Between December 1st 2015 and April 2nd 2016, 16 ICUs in 8 countries enrolled 49 critically ill patients with diagnosis of ZIKAV infection. We included 10 critically ill patients with ZIKAV infection, as diagnosed with RT-PCR, admitted to the ICU. Neurologic manifestations concordant with Guillain-Barre Syndrome (GBS) were present in all patients, although 2 evolved into an encephalitis-like picture. 2 cases died, one due to encephalitis, the other septic shock.
Differing from what was usually reported, ZIKAV infection can result in life-threatening neurologic illness in adults, including GBS and encephalitis. Collaborative reporting to identify severe illness from an emerging pathogen can provide valuable insights into disease epidemiology and clinical presentation, and inform public health authorities about acute care priorities.
•Zika virus (ZIKAV) is classically described as causing minor symptoms in adult patients, however neurologic complications have been recognized.•Neurologic manifestations were present in 10 patients (100%), seemingly concordant with Guillain-Barre Syndrome (GBS) in all of them, 2 cases (20%) died with diagnosis of Encephalitis and Septic ShockThe need for ventilator support was higher, due to muscular failure.•This is higher than what has been previously reported both for ZIKAV and other types of GBS. Also, more patients received intravenous vasoactive medication (40%), a greater proportion than the 20% that has been described for GBS.•Differing from what was usually reported, ZIKAV infection can result in life-threatening neurologic illness in adults, including GBS and encephalitis that are severe enough to warrant ICU admission.
Despite the main strategy to overcome bacterial resistance has focused on the development of more potent antimicrobial agents, the evolutionary pressure caused by such drugs makes this strategy ...limited. Molecules that interfere with virulence factors appear as a promising alternative though, as they cause reduced selective pressure. As a matter of fact, staphyloxanthin biosynthesis inhibition (STXBI) has been pursued as promising strategy to reduce S. aureus virulence. Herein, we report the inhibitory profile of 27 tetrangomycin derivatives over staphyloxanthin production. The experimental result showed that naphthoquinone dehydro-α-lapachone (25 - EC50 = 57.29 ± 1.15 μM) and 2-Isopropylnaphtho2,3-bfuran-4,9-dione (26 EC50 = 82.10 ± 1.09 μM) are the most potent compounds and suggest that hydrogen acceptor groups and lipophilic moieties decorating the naphthoquinone ring are crucial for STXBI. In addition, we present an in situ analysis, through RAMAN spectroscopy, that is inexpensive and might be employed to probe the mechanism of action of staphyloxanthin biosynthesis inhibitors. Therefore, our molecular simplification strategies afforded promising lead compounds for the development of drugs that modulate S. aureus staphyloxanthin biosynthesis.
•Tetrangomcycin derivates inhibit staphyloxanthin production in S. aureus.•RAMAN spectroscopy allows in situ analysis of S. aureus carotenoid profile.•Naphthoquinone dehydro-α-lapachone (25 ) inhibits staphyloxanthin production (EC50= 57.29 ± 1.15 µM ).•Compound 25 effect over S. aureus’ carotenoid profile is more similar to terbinafine’s than to farnesol’s.
The purpose of the research is to strengthen the competence of mathematical interpretation through the portfolio as a learning tool in an educational institution of the "Municipio de Gramalote, Norte ...de Santander, Colombia". The research is carried out from the socio-critical approach, qualitative paradigm and the chosen method is action research. The information gathering process was developed using the techniques of: participant observation and focus group. The key informants were two high school mathematics teachers and eighth grade students. The results show that in the diagnosis the participants' lack of knowledge regarding the process of mathematical interpretation was evidenced; elements of knowledge are identified from the previous knowledge of the students and the preparation of the researcher teacher in the didactic sequence. The use of a tool such as the portfolio made it possible to motivate the learning process and to evidence in an orderly manner the abilities and capacities empowered by the students; there was an appropriation of learning around the analysis and interpretation of mathematics from concrete situations in the daily lives of the students, taking up their previous knowledge and using didactic elements and resources from their environment.
The bacterium
Pseudomonas entomophila
has been recognized as an exceptional species within the
Pseudomonas
genus, capable of naturally infecting and killing insects from at least three different ...orders.
P. entomophila
ingestion leads to irreversible gut damage resulting from a global blockage of translation, which impairs both immune and tissue repair systems in the insect intestine. In this study we isolated a
P. entomophila
bacterial strain from soil samples which displayed a strong activity against
Xanthomonas citri
subsp,
citri
(
Xcc
), the etiological agent of citrus canker disease. The antagonism potential of isolated bacteria against
Xcc
and its ability to reduce citrus canker severity was assessed both
ex planta
and
in planta
. Our findings show that pathogenicity assays in
Citrus x limonia
by pressure infiltration and spray with a mixture of
P. entomophila
and
Xcc
leaded to a significant reduction in the number of canker lesions in high susceptible citrus leaves, at 21 days post-infection. To the best of our knowledge this is the first report of antibacterial activity of
P. entomophila
against a phytopathogenic bacterium. Collective action of
P. entomophila
factors such as diketopiperazine production and the type 6 secretion system (T6SS) may be involved in this type of biological control of citrus canker. The results suggest that the
P. entomophila
strain could be a promising biocontrol agent acting directly against
Xcc.
A modelling framework with field-scale models including the preferential flow model MACRO was developed to simulate transport of six contrasting herbicides in a 650km2 catchment in eastern England. ...The catchment scale model SPIDER was also used for comparison. The catchment system was successfully simulated as the sum of multiple field-scale processes with little impact of in-stream processes on simulations. Preferential flow was predicted to be the main driver of pesticide transport in the catchment. A satisfactory simulation of the flow was achieved (Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiencies of 0.56 and 0.34 for MACRO and SPIDER, respectively) but differences between pesticide simulations were observed due to uncertainties in pesticide properties and application details. Uncertainty analyses were carried out to assess input parameters reported as sensitive including pesticide sorption, degradation and application dates; their impact on simulations was chemical-specific. The simulation of pesticide concentrations in the river during low flow periods was very sensitive to uncertainty from rain gauge measurements and the estimation of evapotranspiration.
•The catchment system can be simulated as the sum of multiple field-scale processes.•Pesticide concentrations in stream flow were driven by field-scale processes.•In-stream processes had little effect on simulations.•Uncertainties in rain gauge recording affected the simulation of low-flow periods.•SPIDER simulates important lateral flow losses that can occur when drains are not flowing.
Climate projections for the future indicate that the United Kingdom will experience hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters, bringing longer dry periods followed by rewetting. This will ...result in changes in phosphorus (P) mobilization patterns that will influence the transfer of P from land to water. We tested the hypothesis that changes in the future patterns of drying–rewetting will affect the amount of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) solubilized from soil. Estimations of dry period characteristics (duration and temperature) under current and predicted climate were determined using data from the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) Weather Generator tool. Three soils (sieved <2 mm), collected from two regions of the United Kingdom with different soils and farm systems, were dried at 25°C for periods of 0, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 60, and 90 d, then subsequently rewetted (50 mL over 2 h). The solubilized leachate was collected and analyzed for SRP. In the 2050s, warm period temperature extremes >25°C are predicted in some places and dry periods of 30 to 90 d extremes are predicted. Combining the frequency of projected dry periods with the SRP concentration in leachate suggests that this may result overall in increased mobilization of P; however, critical breakpoints of 6.9 to 14.5 d dry occur wherein up to 28% more SRP can be solubilized following a rapid rewetting event. The precise cause of this increase could not be identified and warrants further investigation as the process is not currently included in P transfer models.
Core Ideas
UK Climate Projections predict long dry hot periods followed by intense rainfall.
Frequency of longer dry periods increase under climate change.
Critical breakpoints of 7–15 dry days have been identified that solubilize more P from soil.
Increased dry period frequency will result in an overall increase in SRP concentration solubilized.
•This limits of acceptability approach is applied for the first time to the SWAT model.•Identifies exact time steps of poor performance during calibration.•Accounts for evaluation data uncertainty in ...calibration.•It may be difficult to obtain sufficient data to drive complex models with confidence.
There is a need to model and predict the transfer of phosphorus (P) from land to water, but this is challenging because of the large number of complex physical and biogeochemical processes involved. This study presents, for the first time, a ‘limits of acceptability’ approach of the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), in an application to a water quality problem in the Newby Beck catchment (12.5 km2), Cumbria, United Kingdom (UK). Using high frequency outlet data (discharge and P), individual evaluation criteria (limits of acceptability) were assigned to observed discharge and P loads for all evaluation time steps, identifying where the model was performing well/poorly and to infer which processes required improvement in the model structure. Initial limits of acceptability were required to be relaxed by a substantial amount (by factors of between 5.3 and 6.7 on a normalized scale depending on the evaluation criteria used) in order to gain a set of behavioral simulations (1001 and 1016, respectively out of 5,000,000). Of the 39 model parameters tested, the representation of subsurface processes and associated parameters, were consistently shown as critical to the model not meeting the evaluation criteria, irrespective of the chosen evaluation metric. It is therefore concluded that SWAT is not an appropriate model to guide P management in this catchment. This approach highlights the importance of high frequency monitoring data for setting robust model evaluation criteria. It also raises the question as to whether it is possible to have sufficient input data available to drive such models so that we can have confidence in their predictions and their ability to inform catchment management strategies to tackle the problem of diffuse pollution from agriculture.
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