Clinical pharmacology is a multidisciplinary data sciences field that utilizes mathematical and statistical methods to generate maximal knowledge from data. Pharmacometrics (PMX) is a well‐recognized ...tool to characterize disease progression, pharmacokinetics, and risk factors. Because the amount of data produced keeps growing with increasing pace, the computational effort necessary for PMX models is also increasing. Additionally, computationally efficient methods, such as machine learning (ML) are becoming increasingly important in medicine. However, ML is currently not an integrated part of PMX, for various reasons. The goals of this article are to (i) provide an introduction to ML classification methods, (ii) provide examples for a ML classification analysis to identify covariates based on specific research questions, (iii) examine a clinically relevant example to investigate possible relationships of ML and PMX, and (iv) present a summary of ML and PMX tasks to develop clinical decision support tools.
Interpretability and explainability are crucial for machine learning (ML) and statistical applications in medicine, economics, law, and natural sciences and form an essential principle for ML model ...design and development. Although interpretability and explainability have escaped a precise and universal definition, many models and techniques motivated by these properties have been developed over the last 30 years, with the focus currently shifting toward deep learning. We will consider concrete examples of state‐of‐the‐art, including specially tailored rule‐based, sparse, and additive classification models, interpretable representation learning, and methods for explaining black‐box models post hoc. The discussion will emphasize the need for and relevance of interpretability and explainability, the divide between them, and the inductive biases behind the presented “zoo” of interpretable models and explanation methods.
This article is categorized under:
Fundamental Concepts of Data and Knowledge > Explainable AI
Technologies > Machine Learning
Commercial, Legal, and Ethical Issues > Social Considerations
Interpretability and explainability are essential principles of machine learning model and method design and development for medicine, economics, law, and natural sciences applications. Over the last 30 years, many techniques motivated by these properties have been developed. This review is intended for a general machine learning audience interested in exploring the challenges of interpretation and explanation beyond the logistic regression or random forest variable importance. We will examine inductive biases behind interpretable and explainable machine learning and illustrate them with concrete examples from the literature.
Pulmonary hypertension (PH) in newborns and infants is a complex condition associated with several pulmonary, cardiac, and systemic diseases contributing to morbidity and mortality. Thus, accurate ...and early detection of PH and the classification of its severity is crucial for appropriate and successful management. Using echocardiography, the primary diagnostic tool in pediatrics, human assessment is both time-consuming and expertise-demanding, raising the need for an automated approach. Little effort has been directed towards automatic assessment of PH using echocardiography, and the few proposed methods only focus on binary PH classification on the adult population. In this work, we present an explainable multi-view video-based deep learning approach to predict and classify the severity of PH for a cohort of 270 newborns using echocardiograms. We use spatio-temporal convolutional architectures for the prediction of PH from each view, and aggregate the predictions of the different views using majority voting. Our results show a mean F1-score of 0.84 for severity prediction and 0.92 for binary detection using 10-fold cross-validation and 0.63 for severity prediction and 0.78 for binary detection on the held-out test set. We complement our predictions with saliency maps and show that the learned model focuses on clinically relevant cardiac structures, motivating its usage in clinical practice. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work for an automated assessment of PH in newborns using echocardiograms.
Abstract
Background
The mortality risk remains significant in paediatric and adult patients on chronic haemodialysis (HD) treatment. We aimed to identify factors associated with mortality in patients ...who started HD as children and continued HD as adults.
Methods
The data originated from a cohort of patients <30 years of age who started HD in childhood (≤19 years) on thrice-weekly HD in outpatient DaVita dialysis centres between 2004 and 2016. Patients with at least 5 years of follow-up since the initiation of HD or death within 5 years were included; 105 variables relating to demographics, HD treatment and laboratory measurements were evaluated as predictors of 5-year mortality utilizing a machine learning approach (random forest).
Results
A total of 363 patients were included in the analysis, with 84 patients having started HD at <12 years of age. Low albumin and elevated lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) were the two most important predictors of 5-year mortality. Other predictors included elevated red blood cell distribution width or blood pressure and decreased red blood cell count, haemoglobin, albumin:globulin ratio, ultrafiltration rate, z-score weight for age or single-pool Kt/V (below target). Mortality was predicted with an accuracy of 81%.
Conclusions
Mortality in paediatric and young adult patients on chronic HD is associated with multifactorial markers of nutrition, inflammation, anaemia and dialysis dose. This highlights the importance of multimodal intervention strategies besides adequate HD treatment as determined by Kt/V alone. The association with elevated LDH was not previously reported and may indicate the relevance of blood–membrane interactions, organ malperfusion or haematologic and metabolic changes during maintenance HD in this population.
Machine learning models may enhance the early detection of clinically relevant hyperbilirubinemia based on patient information available in every hospital.
We conducted a longitudinal study on ...preterm and term born neonates with serial measurements of total serum bilirubin in the first two weeks of life. An ensemble, that combines a logistic regression with a random forest classifier, was trained to discriminate between the two classes phototherapy treatment vs. no treatment.
Of 362 neonates included in this study, 98 had a phototherapy treatment, which our model was able to predict up to 48 h in advance with an area under the ROC-curve of 95.20%. From a set of 44 variables, including potential laboratory and clinical confounders, a subset of just four (bilirubin, weight, gestational age, hours since birth) suffices for a strong predictive performance. The resulting early phototherapy prediction tool (EPPT) is provided as an open web application.
Early detection of clinically relevant hyperbilirubinemia can be enhanced by the application of machine learning. Existing guidelines can be further improved to optimize timing of bilirubin measurements to avoid toxic hyperbilirubinemia in high-risk patients while minimizing unneeded measurements in neonates who are at low risk.
Given the absence of consolidated and standardized international guidelines for managing pediatric appendicitis and the few strictly data-driven studies in this specific, we investigated the use of ...machine learning (ML) classifiers for predicting the diagnosis, management and severity of appendicitis in children.
Predictive models were developed and validated on a dataset acquired from 430 children and adolescents aged 0-18 years, based on a range of information encompassing history, clinical examination, laboratory parameters, and abdominal ultrasonography. Logistic regression, random forests, and gradient boosting machines were used for predicting the three target variables.
A random forest classifier achieved areas under the precision-recall curve of 0.94, 0.92, and 0.70, respectively, for the diagnosis, management, and severity of appendicitis. We identified smaller subsets of 6, 17, and 18 predictors for each of targets that sufficed to achieve the same performance as the model based on the full set of 38 variables. We used these findings to develop the user-friendly online Appendicitis Prediction Tool for children with suspected appendicitis.
This pilot study considered the most extensive set of predictor and target variables to date and is the first to simultaneously predict all three targets in children: diagnosis, management, and severity. Moreover, this study presents the first ML model for appendicitis that was deployed as an open access easy-to-use online tool.
ML algorithms help to overcome the diagnostic and management challenges posed by appendicitis in children and pave the way toward a more personalized approach to medical decision-making. Further validation studies are needed to develop a finished clinical decision support system.
Appendicitis is among the most frequent reasons for pediatric abdominal surgeries. Previous decision support systems for appendicitis have focused on clinical, laboratory, scoring, and computed ...tomography data and have ignored abdominal ultrasound, despite its noninvasive nature and widespread availability. In this work, we present interpretable machine learning models for predicting the diagnosis, management and severity of suspected appendicitis using ultrasound images. Our approach utilizes concept bottleneck models (CBM) that facilitate interpretation and interaction with high-level concepts understandable to clinicians. Furthermore, we extend CBMs to prediction problems with multiple views and incomplete concept sets. Our models were trained on a dataset comprising 579 pediatric patients with 1709 ultrasound images accompanied by clinical and laboratory data. Results show that our proposed method enables clinicians to utilize a human-understandable and intervenable predictive model without compromising performance or requiring time-consuming image annotation when deployed. For predicting the diagnosis, the extended multiview CBM attained an AUROC of 0.80 and an AUPR of 0.92, performing comparably to similar black-box neural networks trained and tested on the same dataset.
: Remote patient monitoring (RPM) of vital signs and symptoms for lung transplant recipients (LTRs) has become increasingly relevant in many situations. Nevertheless, RPM research integrating ...multisensory home monitoring in LTRs is scarce. We developed a novel multisensory home monitoring device and tested it in the context of COVID-19 vaccinations. We hypothesize that multisensory RPM and smartphone-based questionnaire feedback on signs and symptoms will be well accepted among LTRs. To assess the usability and acceptability of a remote monitoring system consisting of wearable devices, including home spirometry and a smartphone-based questionnaire application for symptom and vital sign monitoring using wearable devices, during the first and second SARS-CoV-2 vaccination.
: Observational usability pilot study for six weeks of home monitoring with the COVIDA Desk for LTRs. During the first week after the vaccination, intensive monitoring was performed by recording data on physical activity, spirometry, temperature, pulse oximetry and self-reported symptoms, signs and additional measurements. During the subsequent days, the number of monitoring assessments was reduced. LTRs reported on their perceptions of the usability of the monitoring device through a purpose-designed questionnaire.
: Ten LTRs planning to receive the first COVID-19 vaccinations were recruited. For the intensive monitoring study phase, LTRs recorded symptoms, signs and additional measurements. The most frequent adverse events reported were local pain, fatigue, sleep disturbance and headache. The duration of these symptoms was 5-8 days post-vaccination. Adherence to the main monitoring devices was high. LTRs rated usability as high. The majority were willing to continue monitoring.
: The COVIDA Desk showed favorable technical performance and was well accepted by the LTRs during the vaccination phase of the pandemic. The feasibility of the RPM system deployment was proven by the rapid recruitment uptake, technical performance (i.e., low number of errors), favorable user experience questionnaires and detailed individual user feedback.
Background & Aims The host immune response during the chronic phase of hepatitis C virus infection varies among individuals; some patients have a no interferon (IFN) response in the liver, whereas ...others have full activation of IFN-stimulated genes (ISGs). Preactivation of this endogenous IFN system is associated with nonresponse to pegylated IFN-α (pegIFN-α) and ribavirin. Genome-wide association studies have associated allelic variants near the IL28B ( IFNλ 3) gene with treatment response. We investigated whether IL28B genotype determines the constitutive expression of ISGs in the liver and compared the abilities of ISG levels and IL28B genotype to predict treatment outcome. Methods We genotyped 109 patients with chronic hepatitis C for IL28B allelic variants and quantified the hepatic expression of ISGs and of IL28B . Decision tree ensembles, in the form of a random forest classifier, were used to calculate the relative predictive power of these different variables in a multivariate analysis. Results The minor IL28B allele was significantly associated with increased expression of ISG. However, stratification of the patients according to treatment response revealed increased ISG expression in nonresponders, irrespective of IL28B genotype. Multivariate analysis of ISG expression, IL28B genotype, and several other factors associated with response to therapy identified ISG expression as the best predictor of treatment response. Conclusions IL28B genotype and hepatic expression of ISGs are independent predictors of response to treatment with pegIFN-α and ribavirin in patients with chronic hepatitis C. The most accurate prediction of response was obtained with a 4-gene classifier comprising IFI27 , ISG15 , RSAD2 , and HTATIP2.
Unplanned hospital readmissions are a burden to patients and increase healthcare costs. A wide variety of machine learning (ML) models have been suggested to predict unplanned hospital readmissions. ...These ML models were often specifically trained on patient populations with certain diseases. However, it is unclear whether these specialized ML models-trained on patient subpopulations with certain diseases or defined by other clinical characteristics-are more accurate than a general ML model trained on an unrestricted hospital cohort. In this study based on an electronic health record cohort of consecutive inpatient cases of a single tertiary care center, we demonstrate that accurate prediction of hospital readmissions may be obtained by general, disease-independent, ML models. This general approach may substantially decrease the cost of development and deployment of respective ML models in daily clinical routine, as all predictions are obtained by the use of a single model.
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