Climate change is expected to modify rainfall, temperature and catchment hydrological responses across the world, and adapting to these water-related changes is a pressing challenge. This paper ...reviews the impact of anthropogenic climate change on water in the UK and looks at projections of future change. The natural variability of the UK climate makes change hard to detect; only historical increases in air temperature can be attributed to anthropogenic climate forcing, but over the last 50 years more winter rainfall has been falling in intense events. Future changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration could lead to changed flow regimes and impacts on water quality, aquatic ecosystems and water availability. Summer flows may decrease on average, but floods may become larger and more frequent. River and lake water quality may decline as a result of higher water temperatures, lower river flows and increased algal blooms in summer, and because of higher flows in the winter. In communicating this important work, researchers should pay particular attention to explaining confidence and uncertainty clearly. Much of the relevant research is either global or highly localized: decision-makers would benefit from more studies that address water and climate change at a spatial and temporal scale appropriate for the decisions they make.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, ODKLJ, OILJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
► Latin Hypercube sampling is applied to UKCP09 probabilistic climate projections. ► Impacts on 70 catchments are examined with model and parameter uncertainty. ► Mean annual flow will decrease in ...the 2020s over most of the UK. ► There is a high likelihood of significant decline in summer flows. ► The main uncertainty in flow changes comes from the spread in climate projections.
Water companies in the United Kingdom have considered climate change in their water resources plans for more than a decade through studies funded by UK Water Industry Research (UKWIR). This paper presents an initial assessment of the impact of the UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) on river flows at a national scale for the 2020s under the A1B scenario and the implications for water resource planning. A daily hydrological modelling framework based on two conceptual model structures and the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology has been applied to 70 catchments across the UK. A Latin Hypercube Sampling approach was adopted to handle the probabilistic nature of UKCP09. Results show a decrease in mean annual flow over most of the UK, with negative median values of all monthly changes except in winter over the western and northern mountainous areas. Furthermore the results indicate a high likelihood of a significant decline in summer flows. An analysis of variance shows that the main uncertainty in river flow changes comes from the spread in climate projections. Finally results are found to be consistent with a previous UKWIR assessment based on individual projections from 6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the A2 scenario. The reduction in summer low-flows, critical for water resources, appears however more limited with UKCP09. Although most expected changes are within natural variability, the drier conditions overall and the greater spread of results with respect to previous assessments indicates a need for testing the robustness of water resource plans.
Older people are predisposed to hyperkalemia because of impaired renal function, comorbid conditions, and polypharmacy. Renin–angiotensin–aldosterone system inhibitors (RAASi), which are recommended ...to treat chronic kidney disease and heart failure augment the risk. Patiromer, a nonabsorbed potassium binder, was shown in the phase 3 OPAL-HK study to decrease serum potassium in patients with chronic kidney disease taking RAASi. We studied the efficacy and safety of patiromer in a prespecified subgroup of patients aged ≥65 years from OPAL-HK.
Chronic kidney disease patients with mild or moderate-to-severe hyperkalemia received patiromer, initially 8.4 g/d or 16.8 g/d, respectively, for 4 weeks (treatment phase, part A). Eligible patients entered an 8-week randomized withdrawal phase (part B) and continued patiromer or switched to placebo.
Mean ± standard error change in serum potassium from baseline to week 4 of part A (primary endpoint) in patients aged ≥65 years was −1.01 ± 0.05 mEq/L (P < .001); 97% achieved serum potassium 3.8-<5.1 mEq/L. The serum potassium increase during the first 4 weeks of part B was greater in patients taking placebo than in those taking patiromer (P < .001). Fewer patients taking patiromer (30%) than placebo (92%) developed recurrent hyperkalemia (serum potassium ≥5.1 mEq/L). Mild-to-moderate constipation occurred in 15% (part A) and 7% (part B) of patients aged ≥65 years. Serum potassium <3.5 mEq/L and serum magnesium <1.4 mg/dL were infrequent (4% each in patients aged ≥65 years in part A).
Patiromer reduced recurrent hyperkalemia and was well tolerated in older chronic kidney disease patients taking RAASi.
Plexiform neurofibroma (PN) tumors are a hallmark manifestation of neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1) that arise in the Schwann cell (SC) lineage. NF1 is a common heritable cancer predisposition syndrome ...caused by germline mutations in the NF1 tumor suppressor, which encodes a GTPase-activating protein called neurofibromin that negatively regulates Ras proteins. Whereas most PN are clinically indolent, a subset progress to atypical neurofibromatous neoplasms of uncertain biologic potential (ANNUBP) and/or to malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumors (MPNSTs). In small clinical series, loss of 9p21.3, which includes the CDKN2A locus, has been associated with the genesis of ANNUBP. Here we show that the Cdkn2a alternate reading frame (Arf) serves as a gatekeeper tumor suppressor in mice that prevents PN progression by inducing senescence-mediated growth arrest in aberrantly proliferating Nf1-/- SC. Conditional ablation of Nf1 and Arf in the neural crest-derived SC lineage allows escape from senescence, resulting in tumors that accurately phenocopy human ANNUBP and progress to MPNST with high penetrance. This animal model will serve as a platform to study the clonal development of ANNUBP and MPNST and to identify new therapies to treat existing tumors and to prevent disease progression.
Neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1) plexiform neurofibromas (PNs) are progressive, multicellular neoplasms that cause morbidity and may transform to sarcoma. Treatment of Nf1
;Postn-Cre mice with ...cabozantinib, an inhibitor of multiple tyrosine kinases, caused a reduction in PN size and number and differential modulation of kinases in cell lineages that drive PN growth. Based on these findings, the Neurofibromatosis Clinical Trials Consortium conducted a phase II, open-label, nonrandomized Simon two-stage study to assess the safety, efficacy and biologic activity of cabozantinib in patients ≥16 years of age with NF1 and progressive or symptomatic, inoperable PN ( NCT02101736 ). The trial met its primary outcome, defined as ≥25% of patients achieving a partial response (PR, defined as ≥20% reduction in target lesion volume as assessed by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)) after 12 cycles of therapy. Secondary outcomes included adverse events (AEs), patient-reported outcomes (PROs) assessing pain and quality of life (QOL), pharmacokinetics (PK) and the levels of circulating endothelial cells and cytokines. Eight of 19 evaluable (42%) trial participants achieved a PR. The median change in tumor volume was 15.2% (range, +2.2% to -36.9%), and no patients had disease progression while on treatment. Nine patients required dose reduction or discontinuation of therapy due to AEs; common AEs included gastrointestinal toxicity, hypothyroidism, fatigue and palmar plantar erythrodysesthesia. A total of 11 grade 3 AEs occurred in eight patients. Patients with PR had a significant reduction in tumor pain intensity and pain interference in daily life but no change in global QOL scores. These data indicate that cabozantinib is active in NF1-associated PN, resulting in tumor volume reduction and pain improvement.
Plexiform neurofibromas (pNF) develop in children with neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1) and can be associated with several skeletal comorbidities. Preclinical mouse studies revealed Nf1 deficiency in ...osteoprogenitor cells disrupts, in a MEK-dependent manner, pyrophosphate (PPi) homeostasis and skeletal mineralization. The etiology of NF-associated skeletal manifestations remains unknown.
We used mouse models of NF1 neurofibromas to assess bone mineralization of skeletal structures adjacent to tumors. Expression of genes involved in pyrophosphate homeostasis was assessed in mouse and human NF tumors and Schwann cell cultures. We used dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) to assess tumor-associated changes in bone mineral density (BMD) in an individual with NF1 following treatment with the MEK inhibitor selumetinib.
We detected increased nonmineralized bone surfaces adjacent to tumors in mouse models of NF1 neurofibromas. Expression of Enpp1, a PPi-generating ectophosphatase, and ANKH, a PPi transporter, was increased in mouse and human neurofibroma-derived tissues and Schwann cells, respectively. In one patient, tumor-associated reductions in BMD were partially rescued following therapy with selumetinib.
Results indicate that NF-associated skeletal pathologies in NF1 are associated with dysregulated pyrophosphate homeostasis in adjacent NF tumors and suggest that treatment of NFs with MEK inhibitors may improve skeletal manifestations of the disease.
Plexiform neurofibromas (PNF) are benign peripheral nerve sheath tumors (PNST) associated with neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1). Despite similar histologic appearance, these neoplasms exhibit diverse ...evolutionary trajectories, with a subset progressing to malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumor (MPNST), the leading cause of premature death in individuals with NF1. Malignant transformation of PNF often occurs through the development of atypical neurofibroma (ANF) precursor lesions characterized by distinct histopathologic features and CDKN2A copy-number loss. Although genomic studies have uncovered key driver events promoting tumor progression, the transcriptional changes preceding malignant transformation remain poorly defined.
Here we resolve gene-expression profiles in PNST across the neurofibroma-to-MPNST continuum in NF1 patients and mouse models, revealing early molecular features associated with neurofibroma evolution and transformation.
Our findings demonstrate that ANF exhibit enhanced signatures of antigen presentation and immune response, which are suppressed as malignant transformation ensues. MPNST further displayed deregulated survival and mitotic fidelity pathways, and targeting key mediators of these pathways, CENPF and BIRC5, disrupted the growth and viability of human MPNST cell lines and primary murine Nf1-Cdkn2a-mutant Schwann cell precursors. Finally, neurofibromas contiguous with MPNST manifested distinct alterations in core oncogenic and immune surveillance programs, suggesting that early molecular events driving disease progression may precede histopathologic evidence of malignancy.
If validated prospectively in future studies, these signatures may serve as molecular diagnostic tools to augment conventional histopathologic diagnosis by identifying neurofibromas at high risk of undergoing malignant transformation, facilitating risk-adapted care.
Neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1) is a common cancer predisposition syndrome caused by mutations in the
tumor suppressor gene.
encodes neurofibromin, a GTPase-activating protein for RAS proto-oncogene ...GTPase (RAS). Plexiform neurofibromas are a hallmark of NF1 and result from loss of heterozygosity of
in Schwann cells, leading to constitutively activated p21RAS. Given the inability to target p21RAS directly, here we performed an shRNA library screen of all human kinases and Rho-GTPases in a patient-derived
Schwann cell line to identify novel therapeutic targets to disrupt PN formation and progression. Rho family members, including Rac family small GTPase 1 (RAC1), were identified as candidates. Corroborating these findings, we observed that shRNA-mediated knockdown of RAC1 reduces cell proliferation and phosphorylation of extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) in
Schwann cells. Genetically engineered
mice, which develop multiple PNs, also exhibited increased RAC1-GTP and phospho-ERK levels compared with
littermates. Notably, mice in which both
and
loci were disrupted (
) were completely free of tumors and had normal phospho-ERK activity compared with
;
mice. We conclude that the RAC1-GTPase is a key downstream node of RAS and that genetic disruption of the
allele completely prevents PN tumor formation
in mice.
Fanconi anemia is a complex heterogeneous genetic disorder with a high incidence of bone marrow failure, clonal evolution to acute myeloid leukemia and mesenchymal-derived congenital anomalies. ...Increasing evidence in Fanconi anemia and other genetic disorders points towards an interdependence of skeletal and hematopoietic development, yet the impact of the marrow microenvironment in the pathogenesis of the bone marrow failure in Fanconi anemia remains unclear. Here we demonstrated that mice with double knockout of both
and
genes had decreased bone formation at least partially due to impaired osteoblast differentiation from mesenchymal stem/progenitor cells. Mesenchymal stem/progenitor cells from the double knockout mice showed impaired hematopoietic supportive activity. Mesenchymal stem/progenitor cells of patients with Fanconi anemia exhibited similar cellular deficits, including increased senescence, reduced proliferation, impaired osteoblast differentiation and defective hematopoietic stem/progenitor cell supportive activity. Collectively, these studies provide unique insights into the physiological significance of mesenchymal stem/progenitor cells in supporting the marrow microenvironment, which is potentially of broad relevance in hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.
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