Better land stewardship is needed to achieve the Paris Agreement's temperature goal, particularly in the tropics, where greenhouse gas emissions from the destruction of ecosystems are largest, and ...where the potential for additional land carbon storage is greatest. As countries enhance their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement, confusion persists about the potential contribution of better land stewardship to meeting the Agreement's goal to hold global warming below 2°C. We assess cost-effective tropical country-level potential of natural climate solutions (NCS)-protection, improved management and restoration of ecosystems-to deliver climate mitigation linked with sustainable development goals (SDGs). We identify groups of countries with distinctive NCS portfolios, and we explore factors (governance, financial capacity) influencing the feasibility of unlocking national NCS potential. Cost-effective tropical NCS offers globally significant climate mitigation in the coming decades (6.56 Pg CO
e yr
at less than 100 US$ per Mg CO
e). In half of the tropical countries, cost-effective NCS could mitigate over half of national emissions. In more than a quarter of tropical countries, cost-effective NCS potential is greater than national emissions. We identify countries where, with international financing and political will, NCS can cost-effectively deliver the majority of enhanced NDCs while transforming national economies and contributing to SDGs. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.
While improved management of agricultural landscapes is promoted as a promising natural climate solution, available estimates of the mitigation potential are based on coarse assessments of both ...agricultural extent and aboveground carbon density. Here we combine 30 meter resolution global maps of aboveground woody carbon, tree cover, and cropland extent, as well as a 1 km resolution map of global pasture land, to estimate the current and potential carbon storage of trees in nonforested portions of agricultural lands. We find that global croplands currently store 3.07 Pg of carbon (C) in aboveground woody biomass (i.e., trees) and pasture lands account for an additional 3.86 Pg C across a combined 3.76 billion ha. We then estimate the climate mitigation potential of multiple scenarios of integration and avoided loss of trees in crop and pasture lands based on region‐specific biomass distributions. We evaluate our findings in the context of nationally determined contributions and find that the majority of potential carbon storage from integration and avoided loss of trees in crop and pasture lands is in countries that do not identify agroforestry as a climate mitigation technique.
While improved management of agricultural landscapes is promoted as a promising natural climate solution, available estimates of mitigation potential are based on coarse assessments of both agricultural extent and aboveground carbon density. We refine these global estimates using 30 meter data and find that global croplands (a, c) currently store 3.07 Pg of carbon (C) in aboveground woody biomass (i.e., trees) while pasture lands (b, d) account for an additional 3.86 Pg C across a combined 3.76 billion ha. We then estimate the climate mitigation potential of integration and avoided loss of trees in crop and pasture lands, based on region‐specific biomass distributions (c, d).
To constrain global warming, we must strongly curtail greenhouse gas emissions and capture excess atmospheric carbon dioxide
. Regrowing natural forests is a prominent strategy for capturing ...additional carbon
, but accurate assessments of its potential are limited by uncertainty and variability in carbon accumulation rates
. To assess why and where rates differ, here we compile 13,112 georeferenced measurements of carbon accumulation. Climatic factors explain variation in rates better than land-use history, so we combine the field measurements with 66 environmental covariate layers to create a global, one-kilometre-resolution map of potential aboveground carbon accumulation rates for the first 30 years of natural forest regrowth. This map shows over 100-fold variation in rates across the globe, and indicates that default rates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
may underestimate aboveground carbon accumulation rates by 32 per cent on average and do not capture eight-fold variation within ecozones. Conversely, we conclude that maximum climate mitigation potential from natural forest regrowth is 11 per cent lower than previously reported
owing to the use of overly high rates for the location of potential new forest. Although our data compilation includes more studies and sites than previous efforts, our results depend on data availability, which is concentrated in ten countries, and data quality, which varies across studies. However, the plots cover most of the environmental conditions across the areas for which we predicted carbon accumulation rates (except for northern Africa and northeast Asia). We therefore provide a robust and globally consistent tool for assessing natural forest regrowth as a climate mitigation strategy.
Maintaining the abundance of carbon stored aboveground in Amazon forests is central to any comprehensive climate stabilization strategy. Growing evidence points to indigenous peoples and local ...communities (IPLCs) as buffers against large-scale carbon emissions across a nine-nation network of indigenous territories (ITs) and protected natural areas (PNAs). Previous studies have demonstrated a link between indigenous land management and avoided deforestation, yet few have accounted for forest degradation and natural disturbances—processes that occur without forest clearing but are increasingly important drivers of biomass loss. Here we provide a comprehensive accounting of aboveground carbon dynamics inside and outside Amazon protected lands. Using published data on changes in aboveground carbon density and forest cover, we track gains and losses in carbon density from forest conversion and degradation/disturbance. We find that ITs and PNAs stored more than one-half (58%; 41,991 MtC) of the region’s carbon in 2016 but were responsible for just 10% (−130 MtC) of the net change (−1,290 MtC). Nevertheless, nearly one-half billion tons of carbon were lost from both ITs and PNAs (−434 MtC and −423 MtC, respectively), with degradation/disturbance accounting for >75% of the losses in 7 countries. With deforestation increasing, and degradation/disturbance a neglected but significant source of region-wide emissions (47%), our results suggest that sustained support for IPLC stewardship of Amazon forests is critical. IPLCs provide a global environmental service that merits increased political protection and financial support, particularly if Amazon Basin countries are to achieve their commitments under the Paris Climate Agreement.
SignificanceDespite increased interest in land-based carbon storage as a climate solution, there are physical limits on how much additional carbon can be incorporated into terrestrial ecosystems. To ...effectively determine where and how to act, jurisdictions need robust data illustrating the magnitude and distribution of opportunities to increase carbon storage, as well as information on the actions available to achieve that storage. Here, we provide globally consistent maps for directing additional carbon storage under current and future climate, as well as a framework for determining how that storage could be gained through restoration, improved management, or maintenance of woody biomass and soil organic matter. Our estimates provide an upper bound on how improved land stewardship can mitigate the climate crisis.
Halving carbon emissions from tropical deforestation by 2020 could help bring the international community closer to the agreed goal of <2 degree increase in global average temperature change and is ...consistent with a target set last year by the governments, corporations, indigenous peoples' organizations and non‐governmental organizations that signed the New York Declaration on Forests (NYDF). We assemble and refine a robust dataset to establish a 2001–2013 benchmark for average annual carbon emissions from gross tropical deforestation at 2.270 Gt CO₂ yr⁻¹. Brazil did not sign the NYDF, yet from 2001 to 2013, Brazil ranks first for both carbon emissions from gross tropical deforestation and reductions in those emissions – its share of the total declined from a peak of 69% in 2003 to a low of 20% in 2012. Indonesia, an NYDF signatory, is the second highest emitter, peaking in 2012 at 0.362 Gt CO₂ yr⁻¹ before declining to 0.205 Gt CO₂ yr⁻¹ in 2013. The other 14 NYDF tropical country signatories were responsible for a combined average of 0.317 Gt CO₂ yr⁻¹, while the other 86 tropical country non‐signatories were responsible for a combined average of 0.688 Gt CO₂ yr⁻¹. We outline two scenarios for achieving the 50% emission reduction target by 2020, both emphasizing the critical role of Brazil and the need to reverse the trends of increasing carbon emissions from gross tropical deforestation in many other tropical countries that, from 2001 to 2013, have largely offset Brazil's reductions. Achieving the target will therefore be challenging, even though it is in the self‐interest of the international community. Conserving rather than cutting down tropical forests requires shifting economic development away from a dependence on natural resource depletion toward recognition of the dependence of human societies on the natural capital that tropical forests represent and the goods and services they provide.
Indigenous Territories (ITs) with less centralized forest governance than Protected Areas (PAs) may represent cost-effective natural climate solutions to meet the Paris agreement. However, the ...literature has been limited to examining the effect of ITs on deforestation, despite the influence of anthropogenic degradation. Thus, little is known about the temporal and spatial effect of allocating ITs on carbon stocks dynamics that account for losses from deforestation and degradation. Using Amazon Basin countries and Panama, this study aims to estimate the temporal and spatial effects of ITs and PAs on carbon stocks. To estimate the temporal effects, we use annual carbon density maps, matching analysis, and linear mixed models. Furthermore, we explore the spatial heterogeneity of these estimates through geographic discontinuity designs, allowing us to assess the spatial effect of ITs and PAs boundaries on carbon stocks. The temporal effects highlight that allocating ITs preserves carbon stocks and buffer losses as well as allocating PAs in Panama and Amazon Basin countries. The geographic discontinuity designs reveal that ITs’ boundaries secure more extensive carbon stocks than their surroundings, and this difference tends to increase towards the least accessible areas, suggesting that indigenous land use in neotropical forests may have a temporarily and spatially stable impact on carbon stocks. Our findings imply that ITs in neotropical forests support Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. Thus, Indigenous peoples must become recipients of countries’ results-based payments.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The climate change-induced expansion of mangroves into salt marshes could significantly alter the carbon (C) storage capacity of coastal wetlands, which have the highest average C storage per land ...area among unmanaged terrestrial ecosystems. Mangrove range expansion is occurring globally, but little is known about how these rapid climate-driven shifts may alter ecosystem C storage. Here, we quantify current C stocks in ecotonal wetlands across gradients of marsh- to mangrove-dominance, and use unique chronological maps of vegetation cover to estimate C stock changes from 2003 to 2010 in a 567-km² wildlife refuge in the mangrove-salt marsh ecotone. We report that over the 7-yr. period, total wetland C stocks increased 22 % due to mangrove encroachment into salt marshes. Newly established mangrove stands stored twice as much C on a per area basis as salt marsh primarily due to differences in aboveground biomass, and mangrove cover increased by 69 % during this short time interval. Wetland C storage within the wildlife refuge increased at a rate of 2.7 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr.⁻¹, more than doubling the naturally high coastal wetland C sequestration rates. Mangrove expansion could account for a globally significant increase of terrestrial C storage, which may exert a considerable negative feedback on warming.
Approximately 2.5 × 10
square kilometers of the Amazon forest are currently degraded by fire, edge effects, timber extraction, and/or extreme drought, representing 38% of all remaining forests in the ...region. Carbon emissions from this degradation total up to 0.2 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year
), which is equivalent to, if not greater than, the emissions from Amazon deforestation (0.06 to 0.21 Pg C year
). Amazon forest degradation can reduce dry-season evapotranspiration by up to 34% and cause as much biodiversity loss as deforestation in human-modified landscapes, generating uneven socioeconomic burdens, mainly to forest dwellers. Projections indicate that degradation will remain a dominant source of carbon emissions independent of deforestation rates. Policies to tackle degradation should be integrated with efforts to curb deforestation and complemented with innovative measures addressing the disturbances that degrade the Amazon forest.
Birth by caesarean section (CS) is associated with aberrant gut microbiome development and greater disease susceptibility later in life. We investigated whether oral administration of maternal ...vaginal microbiota to infants born by CS could restore their gut microbiome development in a pilot single-blinded, randomised placebo-controlled trial (Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12618000339257).
Pregnant women scheduled for a CS underwent comprehensive antenatal pathogen screening. At birth, healthy neonates were randomised to receive a 3 ml solution of either maternal vaginal microbes (CS-seeded, n = 12) or sterile water (CS-placebo, n = 13). Vaginally-born neonates were used as the reference control (VB, n = 22). Clinical assessments occurred within the first 2 h of birth, and at 1 month and 3 months of age. Infant stool samples and maternal vaginal extracts from CS women underwent shotgun metagenomic sequencing. The primary outcome was gut microbiome composition at 1 month of age. Secondary outcomes included maternal strain engraftment, functional potential of the gut microbiome, anthropometry, body composition, and adverse events.
Despite the presence of viable microbial cells within transplant solutions, there were no observed differences in gut microbiome composition or functional potential between CS-seeded and CS-placebo infants at 1 month or 3 months of age. Both CS groups displayed the characteristic signature of low Bacteroides abundance, which contributed to a number of biosynthesis pathways being underrepresented when compared with VB microbiomes. Maternal vaginal strain engraftment was rare. Vaginal seeding had no observed effects on anthropometry or body composition. There were no serious adverse events associated with treatment.
Our pilot findings question the value of vaginal seeding given that oral administration of maternal vaginal microbiota did not alter early gut microbiome development in CS-born infants. The limited colonisation of maternal vaginal strains suggest that other maternal sources, such as the perianal area, may play a larger role in seeding the neonatal gut microbiome.
Health Research Council of New Zealand, A Better Start – National Science Challenge.
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