We aimed to derive and validate a triage tool, based on clinical assessment alone, for predicting adverse outcome in acutely ill adults with suspected COVID-19 infection.
We undertook a mixed ...prospective and retrospective observational cohort study in 70 emergency departments across the United Kingdom (UK). We collected presenting data from 22445 people attending with suspected COVID-19 between 26 March 2020 and 28 May 2020. The primary outcome was death or organ support (respiratory, cardiovascular, or renal) by record review at 30 days. We split the cohort into derivation and validation sets, developed a clinical score based on the coefficients from multivariable analysis using the derivation set, and the estimated discriminant performance using the validation set.
We analysed 11773 derivation and 9118 validation cases. Multivariable analysis identified that age, sex, respiratory rate, systolic blood pressure, oxygen saturation/inspired oxygen ratio, performance status, consciousness, history of renal impairment, and respiratory distress were retained in analyses restricted to the ten or fewer predictors. We used findings from multivariable analysis and clinical judgement to develop a score based on the NEWS2 score, age, sex, and performance status. This had a c-statistic of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.79-0.81) in the validation cohort and predicted adverse outcome with sensitivity 0.98 (0.97-0.98) and specificity 0.34 (0.34-0.35) for scores above four points.
A clinical score based on NEWS2, age, sex, and performance status predicts adverse outcome with good discrimination in adults with suspected COVID-19 and can be used to support decision-making in emergency care.
ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN28342533, http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN28342533.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Hospital emergency departments play a crucial role in the initial assessment and management of suspected COVID-19 infection. This needs to be guided by studies of people presenting with suspected ...COVID-19, including those admitted and discharged, and those who do not ultimately have COVID-19 confirmed. We aimed to characterise patients attending emergency departments with suspected COVID-19, including subgroups based on sex, ethnicity and COVID-19 test results.
We undertook a mixed prospective and retrospective observational cohort study in 70 emergency departments across the United Kingdom (UK). We collected presenting data from 22445 people attending with suspected COVID-19 between 26 March 2020 and 28 May 2020. Outcomes were admission to hospital, COVID-19 result, organ support (respiratory, cardiovascular or renal), and death, by record review at 30 days. Mean age was 58.4 years, 11200 (50.4%) were female and 11034 (49.6%) male. Adults (age >16 years) were acutely unwell (median NEWS2 score of 4), frequently had limited performance status (46.9%) and had high rates of admission (67.1%), COVID-19 positivity (31.2%), organ support (9.8%) and death (15.5%). Children had much lower rates of admission (27.4%), COVID-19 positivity (1.2%), organ support (1.4%) and death (0.3%). Similar numbers of men and women presented to the ED, but men were more likely to be admitted (72.9% v 61.4%), require organ support (12.2% v 7.7%) and die (18.2% v 13.0%). Black or Asian adults tended to be younger than White adults (median age 54, 50 and 67 years), were less likely to have impaired performance status (43.1%, 26.8% and 51.6%), be admitted to hospital (60.8%, 57.3%, 69.6%) or die (11.6%, 11.2%, 16.4%), but were more likely to require organ support (15.9%, 14.3%, 8.9%) or have a positive COVID-19 test (40.8%, 42.1%, 30.0%). Adults admitted with suspected and confirmed COVID-19 had similar age, performance status and comorbidities (except chronic lung disease) to those who did not have COVID-19 confirmed, but were much more likely to need organ support (22.2% v 8.9%) or die (32.1% v 15.5%).
Important differences exist between patient groups presenting to the emergency department with suspected COVID-19. Adults and children differ markedly and require different approaches to emergency triage. Admission and adverse outcome rates among adults suggest that policies to avoid unnecessary ED attendance achieved their aim. Subsequent COVID-19 confirmation confers a worse prognosis and greater need for organ support.
ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN56149622, http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN28342533.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Objectives
The study of preventable deaths is essential to trauma research for measuring service quality and highlighting avenues for improving care and as a performance indicator. However, ...variations in the terminology and methodology of studies on preventable prehospital trauma death limit the comparability and wider application of data. The objective of this study was to describe the heterogeneity in terminology and methodology.
Methods
We performed a systematic literature review and report this using the PRISMA guidelines. Searches were conducted using PubMed (including Medline), Ovid, and Embase databases. Studies, with a full text available in English published between 1990 and 2015, meeting the following inclusion criteria were included: analysis of 1) deaths from trauma, 2) occurring in the prehospital phase of care, and 3) application of criteria to ascertain whether deaths were preventable. One author screened database results for relevance by title and . The full text of identified papers was reviewed for inclusion. The reference list of included papers was screened for studies not identified by the database search. Data were extracted on predefined core elements relating to preventability reporting and definitions using a standardized form.
Results
Twenty‐seven studies meeting the inclusion criteria were identified: 12 studies used two categories to assess the preventability of death while 15 used three categories. Fifteen variations in the terminology of these categories and combination with death descriptors were found. Eleven different approaches were used in defining what constituted a preventable death. Twenty‐one included survivability of injuries as a criterion. Methods used to determine survivability differed and eight variations in parameters for categorization of deaths were used. Nineteen used panel review in determining preventability with six implementing panel blinding. Panel composition varied greatly by expertise of personnel. Separation of prehospital deaths differed with 10 separating those dead at scene (DAS) and dead on arrival, three excluding those DAS, three excluding deaths prior to EMS arrival, and 11 not separating prehospital deaths.
Conclusions
The heterogeneity in methodology, terminology, and definitions of “preventable” between studies render data incomparable. To facilitate common understanding, comparability, and analysis, a commonly agreed ontology by the prehospital research community is required.
An influenza pandemic may increase Emergency Department attendance 7-fold. In the absence of a validated "flu score" to assess severity and assist triage decisions from primary into secondary care, ...current UK draft management recommendations have suggested the use of CURB-65 and chest X-ray as a proxy. We developed the Pandemic Medical Early Warning Score (PMEWS) to track and triage flu patients, taking into account physiological and social factors and without requiring laboratory or radiology services.
Validation of the PMEWS score against an unselected group of patients presenting and admitted to an urban UK teaching hospital with community acquired pneumonia. Comparison of PMEWS performance against CURB-65 for three outcome measures: need for admission, admission to high dependency or intensive care, and inpatient mortality using area under ROC curve (AUROC) and the Hanley-McNeil method of comparison.
PMEWS was a better predictor of need for admission (AUROC 0.944) and need of higher level of care (AUROC 0.83) compared with CURB-65 (AUROCs 0.881 and 0.640 respectively) but was not as good a predictor of subsequent inpatient mortality (AUROC 0.663).
Although further validation against other disease datasets as a proxy for pandemic flu is required, we show that PMEWS is rapidly applicable for triage of large numbers of flu patients to self-care, hospital admission or HDU/ICU care. It is scalable to reflect changing admission thresholds that will occur during a pandemic.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Abstract Introduction The importance of health service planning for major incident management has been recognised since the World Trade Centre attacks of September 2001 and is highly relevant to ...planning for the 2012 Olympics. UK national Major Incident guidance stipulates the use of a system of triage for casualties to prioritise treatment and ensure “the greatest good for the greatest number”. However, at least three triage systems are in use worldwide and no evidence exists to demonstrate their relative efficacy. The transport bombings in London on 7th July 2005 caused the largest number of casualties on mainland UK soil since World War 2. We aimed to validate three major incident triage systems using patient data from the 7th July bombings. Patients and methods A retrospective cohort of patients from the 7th July bombings treated at the Royal London Hospital (RLH) was examined. Clinical information collected on arrival at RLH was used to allocate triage categories using the START, Manchester Sieve and CareFlight triage systems. The value of each system in identifying the critically injured patient was calculated. Results 203 sets of records were examined. Outcome data was available for 166 patients, of whom 8 were critically injured. Of these 166 patients, triage categories could be retrospectively allocated for 124 (START), 127 (Manchester Sieve), 128 (CareFlight), including 4 of the critically injured. All three systems identified the same three patients as P1 or P2. The triage systems performed identically in identifying the critically injured, with sensitivity 50% and specificity 100% if using only the highest priority, or sensitivity 75% and specificity 99% if using the top 2 priority groups. Significant amounts of data were not recorded in prehospital and hospital notes. Discussion and conclusions Systematic triage of mass casualties is effective but the amount of missing data seriously compromises any attempt to evaluate systems of trauma care in a major incident.
Since October 2002 in the UK Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) have had statutory responsibility for having and maintaining a Major Incident plan and since 2005 they have been obliged to co-operate with ...other responders to an incident. We aimed to establish the number of beds in our Trust which could be freed up over set periods of time in the event of a major incident and the nature and quantity of support which might be required from PCTs in order to achieve this.
Repeated survey over 12 days in 3 months of hospital bed occupancy by type of condition and discharge capacity in an 855-bed UK tertiary teaching hospital also providing secondary care services. Outcome measures were bed spaces which could be generated, timescale over which this could happen and level and type of PCT support which would be required to achieve this.
Mean beds available were 78 immediately, a further 69 in 1-4 hours and a further 155 in 4-12 hours, generating a total of 302 beds (36% of hospital capacity) within 12 hours of an incident. This would require support from a PCT of 150,000 population of 10 nursing care beds, 20 therapy-supported intermediate care beds, and 25 care packages in patients' own homes.
In order to fulfill the requirements of the Civil Contingencies Act 2004, PCTs should plan to have surge capacity in the order of 30 residential placements and 25 community support packages per 150,000 population to support Acute Trusts in the event of a major incident.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
When a disaster exceeds the capacity of the affected country to cope with its own resources, the provision of external rescue and health services is required, and the deployment of relief units ...requested. Recently, the cost of international relief and the belief that such deployment is cost-effective has been questioned by the international community; unfortunately, there is still little informed debate and few detailed data are available. This paper presents the results of a comparative review on the cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of search and rescue (SAR) and Emergency Medical Team (EMT) deployment. The aim of this work is to provide an overview of the topic, highlight the criteria used to assess the effectiveness, and identify gaps in existing literature. The results show that both deployments are highly expensive, and their success is strongly related to the time they need to be operational; SAR deployments are characterized by limited outcomes in terms of lives saved, and EMTs by insufficient data and lack of detailed assessment. This research highlights that the criteria used to assess the effectiveness need to be explored further, considering different purposes, lengths of stay, and different activities performed, especially for any comparison. This study concludes that data reporting should be mandatory for humanitarian response agencies.
A number of significant chemical incidents occur in the UK each year and may require Emergency Departments (EDs) to receive and manage contaminated casualties. Previously UK EDs have been found to be ...under-prepared for this, but since October 2005 acute hospital Trusts have had a statutory responsibility to maintain decontamination capacity. We aimed to evaluate the level of preparedness of Emergency Departments in North West England for managing chemical incidents.
A face-to-face semi-structured interview was carried out with the Nurse Manager or a nominated deputy in all 18 Emergency Departments in the Region.
16/18 departments had a written chemical incident plan but only 7 had the plan available at interview. All had a designated decontamination area but only 11 felt that they were adequately equipped. 12/18 had a current training programme for chemical incident management and 3 had no staff trained in decontamination. 13/18 could contain contaminated water from casualty decontamination and 6 could provide shelter for casualties before decontamination.
We have identified major inconsistencies in the preparedness of North West Emergency Departments for managing chemical incidents. Nationally recognized standards on incident planning, facilities, equipment and procedures need to be agreed and implemented with adequate resources. Issues of environmental safety and patient dignity and comfort should also be addressed.
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