•The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia has caused 2033 confirmed cases, including 56 deaths in mainland China, by 2020-01-26 17:06.•We aim to estimate the basic reproduction number of 2019-nCoV ...in Wuhan, China using the exponential growth model method.•We estimated that the mean R0 ranges from 2.24 to 3.58 with an 8-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate.•Changes in reporting likely occurred and should be taken into account in the estimation of R0.
An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia hit a major city in China, Wuhan, December 2019 and subsequently reached other provinces/regions of China and other countries. We present estimates of the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV in the early phase of the outbreak.
Accounting for the impact of the variations in disease reporting rate, we modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases time series, in mainland China from January 10 to January 24, 2020, through the exponential growth. With the estimated intrinsic growth rate (γ), we estimated R0 by using the serial intervals (SI) of two other well-known coronavirus diseases, MERS and SARS, as approximations for the true unknown SI.
The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the mean R0 ranges from 2.24 (95%CI: 1.96–2.55) to 3.58 (95%CI: 2.89–4.39) associated with 8-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. We demonstrated that changes in reporting rate substantially affect estimates of R0.
The mean estimate of R0 for the 2019-nCoV ranges from 2.24 to 3.58, and is significantly larger than 1. Our findings indicate the potential of 2019-nCoV to cause outbreaks.
•For the ongoing novel coronavirus disease (CODID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China, the Chinese government has implemented control measures such as city lockdown to mitigate the impact of the ...epidemic.•We model the outbreak in Wuhan with individual reaction and governmental action (holiday extension, city lockdown, hospitalisation and quarantine) based on some parameters of the 1918 influenza pandemic in London, United Kingdom.•We show the different effects of individual reaction and governmental action and preliminarily estimate the magnitude of these effects.•We also preliminarily estimate the time-varying reporting ratio.
The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, emerged in Wuhan, China in the end of 2019, has claimed more than 2600 lives as of 24 February 2020 and posed a huge threat to global public health. The Chinese government has implemented control measures including setting up special hospitals and travel restriction to mitigate the spread. We propose conceptual models for the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan with the consideration of individual behavioural reaction and governmental actions, e.g., holiday extension, travel restriction, hospitalisation and quarantine. We employe the estimates of these two key components from the 1918 influenza pandemic in London, United Kingdom, incorporated zoonotic introductions and the emigration, and then compute future trends and the reporting ratio. The model is concise in structure, and it successfully captures the course of the COVID-19 outbreak, and thus sheds light on understanding the trends of the outbreak.
•Asymptomatic transmission of the coronavirus disease 2019 is an important topic.•A recent study in China showed that transmissibility of the asymptomatic cases among close contacts is comparable to ...that of symptomatic cases.•Here we showed that the conclusion may depend on how we interpret the data.•We also reported the asymptomatic case ratio in Hong Kong over time due to a large number of young imported case.•To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time the relative transmissibility of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases is quantified.
Asymptomatic transmission of the coronavirus disease 2019 is an important topic. A recent study in China showed that transmissibility of the asymptomatic cases is comparable to that of symptomatic cases. Here, we discuss that the conclusion may depend on how we interpret the data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time the relative transmissibility of asymptomatic COVID-19 infections is quantified.
In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of foreign ...countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020, and thus we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number,
, of 2019-nCoV.
We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth. The number of unreported cases was determined by the maximum likelihood estimation. We used the serial intervals (SI) of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses (CoV), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate
.
We confirmed that the initial growth phase followed an exponential growth pattern. The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 (95% CI: 403-540) unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold (95% CI: 18-25) in comparison to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. We estimated the
of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 (95% CI: 2.49-2.63).
The under-reporting was likely to have occurred during the first half of January 2020 and should be considered in future investigation.
The circulation of SARS-CoV-2 Beta (B.1.351) variants challenged the control of COVID-19 pandemic. The numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths and SARS-CoV-2 sequences in South Africa were collected. We ...reconstructed the variant-specified reproduction numbers (R t) and delay-adjusted case fatality ratio (CFR) to examine the changes in transmissibility and fatality risk of Beta over non-Beta variants. We estimated that Beta variants were 41% (95%CI: 16, 73) more transmissible and 53% (95%CI: 6, 108) more fatal than non-Beta variants. Higher risks of infection and fatality might lead to increasing volumes of infections and critical patients.
Impacts
The circulation of SARS-CoV-2 Beta (B.1.351) variants, which were firstly reported in South Africa, challenged the control of COVID-19 pandemic.
Using the national-wide COVID-19 cases and SARS-CoV-2 sequences data, Beta variants were estimated 41% more transmissible and 53% more fatal than non-Beta variants in South Africa.
Higher risks of infection and fatality might lead to increasing volumes of infections and critical patients.
Sepsis coincides with altered gene expression in different tissues. Accumulating evidence has suggested that microRNAs, long non-coding RNAs, and circular RNAs are important molecules involved in the ...crosstalk with various pathways pertinent to innate immunity, mitochondrial functions, and apoptosis.
We searched articles indexed in PubMed (MEDLINE), EMBASE and Europe PubMed Central databases using the Medical Subject Heading (MeSH) or Title/Abstract words ("microRNA", "long non-coding RNA", "circular RNA", "sepsis" and/or "septic shock") from inception to Sep 2016. Studies investigating the role of host-derived microRNA, long non-coding RNA, and circular RNA in the pathogenesis of and as biomarkers or therapeutics in sepsis were included. Data were extracted in terms of the role of non-coding RNAs in pathogenesis, and their applicability for use as biomarkers or therapeutics in sepsis. Two independent researchers assessed the quality of studies using a modified guideline from the Systematic Review Center for Laboratory animal Experimentation (SYRCLE), a tool based on the Cochrane Collaboration Risk of Bias tool.
Observational studies revealed dysregulation of non-coding RNAs in septic patients. Experimental studies confirmed their crosstalk with JNK/NF-κB and other cellular pathways pertinent to innate immunity, mitochondrial function, and apoptosis. Of the included studies, the SYRCLE scores ranged from 3 to 7 (average score of 4.55). This suggests a moderate risk of bias. Of the 10 articles investigating non-coding RNAs as biomarkers, none of them included a validation cohort. Selective reporting of sensitivity, specificity, and receiver operating curve was common.
Although non-coding RNAs appear to be good candidates as biomarkers and therapeutics for sepsis, their differential expression across tissues complicated the process. Further investigation on organ-specific delivery of these regulatory molecules may be useful.
Low-code platforms can provide a learning environment that integrates academic theory with practical experiences, allowing students to experience real-world ISD projects. Such a pedagogy is known as ...work-integrated learning (WIL). In a low-code WIL course, the focus is on the practical development experiences and the delivery of a business application based on client’s requirements. Yet, the real-world ISD experiences may inhibit metacognition, which is essential for students to succeed in future learning of digital innovations. Without metacognition, students struggle to learn how to learn and be reflective about their learning. This study uses a mixed-method design and draws on Flavell’s (1979) theoretical framework to examine metacognition in the context of low-code WIL. In particular, the study examines the effect of learner-oriented factors and task-oriented factors on metacognition and its impact on learning outcomes, such as knowledge confidence, app delivery, and grade. The quantitative results indicate that metacognition is influenced by motivation, the strategic approach, and autonomy, whereas self-efficacy beliefs have no effect. The learning outcomes are also achieved. Qualitative results (students’ essays and apps) corroborate the quantitative results while also providing additional insights into the learning in low-code WIL showing the impact of the platform and agile ISD practices on metacognition. Overall, this study offers IS educators a better understanding of how low-code platforms can foster learning-to-learn while providing real-world practical experiences.
Exploring the role of ambient temperature in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission is of importance in understanding the patterns of the epidemic. Y
ao
et al.
1 concluded that there were ...no significant associations of COVID-19 transmissibility with temperature and ultraviolet (UV) radiation in 62 Chinese cities. Inspired by the nonlinear dose–response relationship between ambient temperature and influenza transmissibility explored previously 2, 3, we argue that the association between COVID-19 transmissibility and temperature might be complex in nature, which may be overlooked by a linear analytical framework. We, therefore, examined the likelihood of a nonlinear association between COVID-19 transmissibility and ambient temperature.
In this national ecological study across 154 Chinese cities, the ambient temperature was found to have a nonlinear negative association with COVID-19 transmissibility
https://bit.ly/3esw8rc
Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) detect common genetic variants associated with complex disorders. With their comprehensive coverage of common single nucleotide polymorphisms and comparatively ...low cost, GWAS are an attractive tool in the clinical and commercial genetic testing. This review introduces the pipeline of statistical methods used in GWAS analysis, from data quality control, association tests, population structure control, interaction effects and results visualization, through to post-GWAS validation methods and related issues.
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