The American Cancer Society (ACS), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Cancer Institute (NCI), and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) ...collaborate to provide annual updates on cancer occurrence and trends in the United States. This Annual Report highlights survival rates. Data were from the CDC- and NCI-funded population-based cancer registry programs and compiled by NAACCR. Trends in age-standardized incidence and death rates for all cancers combined and for the leading cancer types by sex were estimated by joinpoint analysis and expressed as annual percent change. We used relative survival ratios and adjusted relative risk of death after a diagnosis of cancer (hazard ratios HRs) using Cox regression model to examine changes or differences in survival over time and by sociodemographic factors.
Overall cancer death rates from 2010 to 2014 decreased by 1.8% (95% confidence interval CI = -1.8 to -1.8) per year in men, by 1.4% (95% CI = -1.4 to -1.3) per year in women, and by 1.6% (95% CI = -2.0 to -1.3) per year in children. Death rates decreased for 11 of the 16 most common cancer types in men and for 13 of the 18 most common cancer types in women, including lung, colorectal, female breast, and prostate, whereas death rates increased for liver (men and women), pancreas (men), brain (men), and uterine cancers. In contrast, overall incidence rates from 2009 to 2013 decreased by 2.3% (95% CI = -3.1 to -1.4) per year in men but stabilized in women. For several but not all cancer types, survival statistically significantly improved over time for both early and late-stage diseases. Between 1975 and 1977, and 2006 and 2012, for example, five-year relative survival for distant-stage disease statistically significantly increased from 18.7% (95% CI = 16.9% to 20.6%) to 33.6% (95% CI = 32.2% to 35.0%) for female breast cancer but not for liver cancer (from 1.1%, 95% CI = 0.3% to 2.9%, to 2.3%, 95% CI = 1.6% to 3.2%). Survival varied by race/ethnicity and state. For example, the adjusted relative risk of death for all cancers combined was 33% (HR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.32 to 1.34) higher in non-Hispanic blacks and 51% (HR = 1.51, 95% CI = 1.46 to 1.56) higher in non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native compared with non-Hispanic whites.
Cancer death rates continue to decrease in the United States. However, progress in reducing death rates and improving survival is limited for several cancer types, underscoring the need for intensified efforts to discover new strategies for prevention, early detection, and treatment and to apply proven preventive measures broadly and equitably.
The ongoing evolution of tracer mixing models has resulted in a confusing array of software tools that differ in terms of data inputs, model assumptions, and associated analytic products. Here we ...introduce MixSIAR, an inclusive, rich, and flexible Bayesian tracer (e.g., stable isotope) mixing model framework implemented as an open-source R package. Using MixSIAR as a foundation, we provide guidance for the implementation of mixing model analyses. We begin by outlining the practical differences between mixture data error structure formulations and relate these error structures to common mixing model study designs in ecology. Because Bayesian mixing models afford the option to specify informative priors on source proportion contributions, we outline methods for establishing prior distributions and discuss the influence of prior specification on model outputs. We also discuss the options available for source data inputs (raw data versus summary statistics) and provide guidance for combining sources. We then describe a key advantage of MixSIAR over previous mixing model software-the ability to include fixed and random effects as covariates explaining variability in mixture proportions and calculate relative support for multiple models via information criteria. We present a case study of
diet partitioning to demonstrate the power of this approach. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of limitations to mixing model applications. Through MixSIAR, we have consolidated the disparate array of mixing model tools into a single platform, diversified the set of available parameterizations, and provided developers a platform upon which to continue improving mixing model analyses in the future.
Indices of abundance are the bedrock for stock assessments or empirical management procedures used to manage fishery catches for fish populations worldwide, and are generally obtained by processing ...catch-rate data. Recent research suggests that geostatistical models can explain a substantial portion of variability in catch rates via the location of samples (i.e. whether located in high- or low-density habitats), and thus use available catch-rate data more efficiently than conventional "design-based" or stratified estimators. However, the generality of this conclusion is currently unknown because geostatistical models are computationally challenging to simulation-test and have not previously been evaluated using multiple species. We develop a new maximum likelihood estimator for geostatistical index standardization, which uses recent improvements in estimation for Gaussian random fields. We apply the model to data for 28 groundfish species off the U.S. West Coast and compare results to a previous "stratified" index standardization model, which accounts for spatial variation using post-stratification of available data. This demonstrates that the stratified model generates a relative index with 60% larger estimation intervals than the geostatistical model. We also apply both models to simulated data and demonstrate (i) that the geostatistical model has well-calibrated confidence intervals (they include the true value at approximately the nominal rate), (ii) that neither model on average under- or overestimates changes in abundance, and (iii) that the geostatistical model has on average 20% lower estimation errors than a stratified model. We therefore conclude that the geostatistical model uses survey data more efficiently than the stratified model, and therefore provides a more cost-efficient treatment for historical and ongoing fish sampling data.
Climate change is likely to change the relationships between commonly used climate indices and underlying patterns of climate variability, but this complexity is rarely considered in studies using ...climate indices. Here, we show that the physical and ecological conditions mapping onto the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index have changed over multidecadal timescales. These changes apparently began around a 1988/1989 North Pacific climate shift that was marked by abrupt northeast Pacific warming, declining temporal variance in the Aleutian Low (a leading atmospheric driver of the PDO), and increasing correlation between the PDO and NPGO patterns. Sea level pressure and surface temperature patterns associated with each climate index changed after 1988/1989, indicating that identical index values reflect different states of basinscale climate over time. The PDO and NPGO also show timedependent skill as indices of regional northeast Pacific ecosystem variability. Since the late 1980s, both indices have become less relevant to physical–ecological variability in regional ecosystems from the Bering Sea to the southern California Current. Users of these climate indices should be aware of nonstationary relationships with underlying climate variability within the historical record, and the potential for further nonstationarity with ongoing climate change.
Abstract
Background
The American Cancer Society, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Cancer Institute, and North American Association of Central Cancer Registries provide annual ...updates on cancer occurrence and trends by cancer type, sex, race, ethnicity, and age in the United States. This year’s report highlights the cancer burden among men and women age 20–49 years.
Methods
Incidence data for the years 1999 to 2015 from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention- and National Cancer Institute–funded population-based cancer registry programs compiled by the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries and death data for the years 1999 to 2016 from the National Vital Statistics System were used. Trends in age-standardized incidence and death rates, estimated by joinpoint, were expressed as average annual percent change.
Results
Overall cancer incidence rates (per 100 000) for all ages during 2011–2015 were 494.3 among male patients and 420.5 among female patients; during the same time period, incidence rates decreased 2.1% (95% confidence interval CI = −2.6% to −1.6%) per year in men and were stable in females. Overall cancer death rates (per 100 000) for all ages during 2012–2016 were 193.1 among male patients and 137.7 among female patients. During 2012–2016, overall cancer death rates for all ages decreased 1.8% (95% CI = −1.8% to −1.8%) per year in male patients and 1.4% (95% CI = −1.4% to −1.4%) per year in females. Important changes in trends were stabilization of thyroid cancer incidence rates in women and rapid declines in death rates for melanoma of the skin (both sexes). Among adults age 20–49 years, overall cancer incidence rates were substantially lower among men (115.3 per 100 000) than among women (203.3 per 100 000); cancers with the highest incidence rates (per 100 000) among men were colon and rectum (13.1), testis (10.7), and melanoma of the skin (9.8), and among women were breast (73.2), thyroid (28.4), and melanoma of the skin (14.1). During 2011 to 2015, the incidence of all invasive cancers combined among adults age 20–49 years decreased −0.7% (95% CI = −1.0% to −0.4%) among men and increased among women (1.3%, 95% CI = 0.7% to 1.9%). The death rate for (per 100 000) adults age 20–49 years for all cancer sites combined during 2012 to 2016 was 22.8 among men and 27.1 among women; during the same time period, death rates decreased 2.3% (95% CI = −2.4% to −2.2%) per year among men and 1.7% (95% CI = −1.8% to −1.6%) per year among women.
Conclusions
Among people of all ages and ages 20–49 years, favorable as well as unfavorable trends in site-specific cancer incidence were observed, whereas trends in death rates were generally favorable. Characterizing the cancer burden may inform research and cancer-control efforts.
Harbor seals (
Phoca vitulina richardii
) in the inland waters of Washington were reduced by predator control programs in the twentieth century, but stocks have rebounded since being protected in the ...1970s. Three management stocks are recognized, but there is little information on their current abundance. We conducted 38,431 km of aerial line-transect surveys throughout the range of these stocks in 2013–2016, sighting a total of 4,678 groups of harbor seals. Line-transect analysis with Beaufort sea state as a covariate provided estimates of the number of seals in the water. We then incorporated tagging data from 15 instrumented seals to develop correction factors, both for seals missed in the water while diving, and those that were on shore. Tagging data were modeled with generalized linear mixed models to provide estimates of the proportions diving and hauled out. After applying these correction factors, we estimated that the Hood Canal stock contained 1,368 seals (CV = 16.8%), the Southern Puget Sound stock contained 1,976 seals (CV = 20.5%), and the Washington Northern Inland Waters stock contained 7,513 seals (CV = 11.5%). This study presents a non-traditional approach to estimating the size of Washington inland waters harbor seal stocks, which may also be applicable to other species for which survey and tagging data are available.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
We modified the stable isotope mixing model MixSIR to infer primary producer contributions to consumer diets based on their fatty acid composition. To parameterize the algorithm, we generated a ...'consumer-resource library' of FA signatures of Daphnia fed different algal diets, using 34 feeding trials representing diverse phytoplankton lineages. This library corresponds to the resource or producer file in classic Bayesian mixing models such as MixSIR or SIAR. Because this library is based on the FA profiles of zooplankton consuming known diets, and not the FA profiles of algae directly, trophic modification of consumer lipids is directly accounted for. To test the model, we simulated hypothetical Daphnia comprised of 80% diatoms, 10% green algae, and 10% cryptophytes and compared the FA signatures of these known pseudo-mixtures to outputs generated by the mixing model. The algorithm inferred these simulated consumers were comprised of 82% (63-92%) median (2.5th to 97.5th percentile credible interval) diatoms, 11% (4-22%) green algae, and 6% (0-25%) cryptophytes. We used the same model with published phytoplankton stable isotope (SI) data for δ13C and δ15N to examine how a SI based approach resolved a similar scenario. With SI, the algorithm inferred that the simulated consumer assimilated 52% (4-91%) diatoms, 23% (1-78%) green algae, and 18% (1-73%) cyanobacteria. The accuracy and precision of SI based estimates was extremely sensitive to both resource and consumer uncertainty, as well as the trophic fractionation assumption. These results indicate that when using only two tracers with substantial uncertainty for the putative resources, as is often the case in this class of analyses, the underdetermined constraint in consumer-resource SI analyses may be intractable. The FA based approach alleviated the underdetermined constraint because many more FA biomarkers were utilized (n < 20), different primary producers (e.g., diatoms, green algae, and cryptophytes) have very characteristic FA compositions, and the FA profiles of many aquatic primary consumers are strongly influenced by their diets.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The demographic structure of populations is affected by life history strategies and how these interact with natural and anthropogenic factors such as exploitation, climate change, and biotic ...interactions. Previous work suggests that the mean size and age of some North American populations of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, Salmonidae) are declining. These trends are of concern because Chinook salmon are highly valued commercially for their exceptional size and because the loss of the largest and oldest individuals may lead to reduced population productivity. Using long‐term data from wild and hatchery populations, we quantified changes in the demographic structure of Chinook salmon populations over the past four decades across the Northeast Pacific Ocean, from California through western Alaska. Our results show that wild and hatchery fish are becoming smaller and younger throughout most of the Pacific coast. Proportions of older age classes have decreased over time in most regions. Simultaneously, the length‐at‐age of older fish has declined while the length‐at‐age of younger fish has typically increased. However, negative size trends of older ages were weak or non‐existent at the southern end of the range. While it remains to be explored whether these trends are caused by changes in climate, fishing practices or species interactions such as predation, our qualitative review of the potential causes of demographic change suggests that selective removal of large fish has likely contributed to the apparent widespread declines in average body sizes.
Pediatric inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is challenging to diagnose because of the non-specificity of symptoms; an unequivocal diagnosis can only be made using colonoscopy, which clinicians are ...reluctant to recommend for children. Diagnosis of pediatric IBD is therefore frequently delayed, leading to inappropriate treatment plans and poor outcomes. We investigated the use of 16S rRNA sequencing of fecal samples and new analytical methods to assess differences in the microbiota of children with IBD and other gastrointestinal disorders.
We applied synthetic learning in microbial ecology (SLiME) analysis to 16S sequencing data obtained from i) published surveys of microbiota diversity in IBD and ii) fecal samples from 91 children and young adults who were treated in the gastroenterology program of Children's Hospital (Boston, USA). The developed method accurately distinguished control samples from those of patients with IBD; the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) value was 0.83 (corresponding to 80.3% sensitivity and 69.7% specificity at a set threshold). The accuracy was maintained among data sets collected by different sampling and sequencing methods. The method identified taxa associated with disease states and distinguished patients with Crohn's disease from those with ulcerative colitis with reasonable accuracy. The findings were validated using samples from an additional group of 68 patients; the validation test identified patients with IBD with an AUC value of 0.84 (e.g. 92% sensitivity, 58.5% specificity).
Microbiome-based diagnostics can distinguish pediatric patients with IBD from patients with similar symptoms. Although this test can not replace endoscopy and histological examination as diagnostic tools, classification based on microbial diversity is an effective complementary technique for IBD detection in pediatric patients.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
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