We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S . This evidence includes feedback process ...understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult‐to‐quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6‐3.9 K for our Baseline calculation, and remains within 2.3‐4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5‐95% ranges are 2.3‐4.7 K, bounded by 2.0‐5.7 K (although such high‐confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent, and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S , in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing‐feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes.
We report constraints on spin-independent weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP)-nucleon scattering using a 3.35×10^{4} kg day exposure of the Large Underground Xenon (LUX) experiment. A ...dual-phase xenon time projection chamber with 250 kg of active mass is operated at the Sanford Underground Research Facility under Lead, South Dakota (USA). With roughly fourfold improvement in sensitivity for high WIMP masses relative to our previous results, this search yields no evidence of WIMP nuclear recoils. At a WIMP mass of 50 GeV c^{-2}, WIMP-nucleon spin-independent cross sections above 2.2×10^{-46} cm^{2} are excluded at the 90% confidence level. When combined with the previously reported LUX exposure, this exclusion strengthens to 1.1×10^{-46} cm^{2} at 50 GeV c^{-2}.
We present constraints on weakly interacting massive particles (WIMP)-nucleus scattering from the 2013 data of the Large Underground Xenon dark matter experiment, including 1.4×10^{4} kg day of ...search exposure. This new analysis incorporates several advances: single-photon calibration at the scintillation wavelength, improved event-reconstruction algorithms, a revised background model including events originating on the detector walls in an enlarged fiducial volume, and new calibrations from decays of an injected tritium β source and from kinematically constrained nuclear recoils down to 1.1 keV. Sensitivity, especially to low-mass WIMPs, is enhanced compared to our previous results which modeled the signal only above a 3 keV minimum energy. Under standard dark matter halo assumptions and in the mass range above 4 GeV c^{-2}, these new results give the most stringent direct limits on the spin-independent WIMP-nucleon cross section. The 90% C.L. upper limit has a minimum of 0.6 zb at 33 GeV c^{-2} WIMP mass.
LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) is a next-generation dark matter direct detection experiment that will operate 4850 feet underground at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in Lead, South Dakota, USA. ...Using a two-phase xenon detector with an active mass of 7 tonnes, LZ will search primarily for low-energy interactions with weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs), which are hypothesized to make up the dark matter in our galactic halo. In this paper, the projected WIMP sensitivity of LZ is presented based on the latest background estimates and simulations of the detector. For a 1000 live day run using a 5.6-tonne fiducial mass, LZ is projected to exclude at 90% confidence level spin-independent WIMP-nucleon cross sections above 1.4 × 10−48 cm2 for a 40 GeV/c2 mass WIMP. Additionally, a 5 σ discovery potential is projected, reaching cross sections below the exclusion limits of recent experiments. For spin-dependent WIMP-neutron(-proton) scattering, a sensitivity of 2.3 × 10−43 cm2 (7.1 × 10−42 cm2) for a 40 GeV/c2 mass WIMP is expected. With underground installation well underway, LZ is on track for commissioning at SURF in 2020.
We present experimental constraints on the spin-dependent WIMP (weakly interacting massive particle)-nucleon elastic cross sections from LUX data acquired in 2013. LUX is a dual-phase xenon time ...projection chamber operating at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (Lead, South Dakota), which is designed to observe the recoil signature of galactic WIMPs scattering from xenon nuclei. A profile likelihood ratio analysis of 1.4×10^{4} kg day of fiducial exposure allows 90% C.L. upper limits to be set on the WIMP-neutron (WIMP-proton) cross section of σ_{n}=9.4×10^{-41} cm^{2} (σ_{p}=2.9×10^{-39} cm^{2}) at 33 GeV/c^{2}. The spin-dependent WIMP-neutron limit is the most sensitive constraint to date.
The Large Underground Xenon (LUX) experiment is a dual-phase xenon time-projection chamber operating at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (Lead, South Dakota). The LUX cryostat was filled for ...the first time in the underground laboratory in February 2013. We report results of the first WIMP search data set, taken during the period from April to August 2013, presenting the analysis of 85.3 live days of data with a fiducial volume of 118 kg. A profile-likelihood analysis technique shows our data to be consistent with the background-only hypothesis, allowing 90% confidence limits to be set on spin-independent WIMP-nucleon elastic scattering with a minimum upper limit on the cross section of 7.6 × 10(-46) cm(2) at a WIMP mass of 33 GeV/c(2). We find that the LUX data are in disagreement with low-mass WIMP signal interpretations of the results from several recent direct detection experiments.
The first searches for axions and axionlike particles with the Large Underground Xenon experiment are presented. Under the assumption of an axioelectric interaction in xenon, the coupling constant ...between axions and electrons g_{Ae} is tested using data collected in 2013 with an exposure totaling 95 live days ×118 kg. A double-sided, profile likelihood ratio statistic test excludes g_{Ae} larger than 3.5×10^{-12} (90% C.L.) for solar axions. Assuming the Dine-Fischler-Srednicki-Zhitnitsky theoretical description, the upper limit in coupling corresponds to an upper limit on axion mass of 0.12 eV/c^{2}, while for the Kim-Shifman-Vainshtein-Zhakharov description masses above 36.6 eV/c^{2} are excluded. For galactic axionlike particles, values of g_{Ae} larger than 4.2×10^{-13} are excluded for particle masses in the range 1-16 keV/c^{2}. These are the most stringent constraints to date for these interactions.
Using a sample of four galaxy clusters at 1.35 < z < 1.65 and 10 galaxy clusters at 0.85 < z < 1.35, we measure the environmental quenching timescale, tQ, corresponding to the time required after a ...galaxy is accreted by a cluster for it to fully cease star formation. Cluster members are selected by a photometric-redshift criterion, and categorized as star-forming, quiescent, or intermediate according to their dust-corrected rest-frame colors and magnitudes. We employ a "delayed-then-rapid" quenching model that relates a simulated cluster mass accretion rate to the observed numbers of each type of galaxy in the cluster to constrain tQ. For galaxies of mass M* 1010.5 M , we find a quenching timescale of tQ = Gyr in the z ∼ 1.5 cluster sample, and Gyr at z ∼ 1. Using values drawn from the literature, we compare the redshift evolution of tQ to timescales predicted for different physical quenching mechanisms. We find tQ to depend on host halo mass such that quenching occurs over faster timescales in clusters relative to groups, suggesting that properties of the host halo are responsible for quenching high-mass galaxies. Between z = 0 and z = 1.5, we find that tQ evolves faster than the molecular gas depletion timescale and slower than an estimated star formation rate-outflow timescale, but is consistent with the evolution of the dynamical time. This suggests that environmental quenching in these galaxies is driven by the motion of satellites relative to the cluster environment, although due to uncertainties in the atomic gas budget at high redshift, we cannot rule out quenching due to simple gas depletion.