Palaeoecology involves analysis of fossil and sub-fossil evidence preserved within sediments to understand past species distributions, habitats and ecosystems. However, while palaeoecological ...research is sometimes made relevant to contemporary ecology, especially to advance understanding of biogeographical theory or inform habitat-based conservation at specific sites, most ecologists do not routinely incorporate palaeoecological evidence into their work. Thus most cross-discipline links are palaeoecology → ecology rather than ecology → palaeoecology. This is likely due to lack of awareness and/or the misnomer that palaeoecology invariably relates to the “distant past” (thousands of years) rather than being applicable to the “recent past” (last ~ 100–200 years). Here, we highlight opportunities for greater integration of palaeoecology within contemporary ecological research, policy, and practice. We identify situations where palaeoecology has been, or could be, used to (1) quantify recent temporal change (e.g. population dynamics; predator–prey cycles); (2) “rewind” to a particular point in ecological time (e.g. setting restoration/rewilding targets; classifying cryptogenic species); (3) understand current ecological processes that are hard to study real-time (e.g. identifying keystone species; detecting ecological tipping points); (4) complement primary data and historical records to bridge knowledge gaps (e.g. informing reintroductions and bioindicator frameworks); (5) disentangle natural and anthropogenic processes (e.g. climate change); and (6) draw palaeoecological analogues (e.g. impacts of pests). We conclude that the possibilities for better uniting ecology and palaeoecology to form an emerging cross-boundary paradigm are as extensive as they are exciting: we urge ecologists to learn from the past and seek opportunities to extend, improve, and strengthen their work using palaeoecological data.
The Little Ice Age (LIA) is a well-recognised palaeoclimatic phenomenon, although its causes, duration and severity have been matters of debate and dispute. Data from a wide range of archives have ...been used to infer climate variability before, during and after the LIA. Some published proxy-climate data from peatlands imply that two particularly severe episodes within the LIA may be contemporaneous between hemispheres; these echo a previous climatic downturn ca. 2800 cal BP of similar severity but lesser duration. Here, we present palaeoclimate data from the mid- to late-Holocene, reconstructed from three blanket peats in Yorkshire: Mossdale Moor, Oxenhope Moor and West Arkengarthdale. Multiproxy techniques used for palaeoclimatic reconstruction were plant macrofossil, pollen and humification analyses. Dating was provided by a radiocarbon-based chronology, aided by spheroidal carbonaceous particles (SCPs) for all sites, and 210Pb dates for one. The LIA presents as a distinct climatic event within each palaeoenvironmental record at the three sites. These indications are compared with terrestrial datasets from northwest Europe and elsewhere. A broad degree of synchronicity is evident, signifying that the LIA is one of the most pronounced downturns in global climate in the last ca. 6000 years, and arguably the most routinely recorded within the Holocene.
Vegetation communities are intricate networks of co-occurring species. Logistical challenges in collecting primary data means research often utilises short-term data from restricted geographical ...areas. In this study, we examine spatiotemporal change in richness and turnover of vascular plants and bryophytes over the last 4000 years at 23 sites in western Eurasia using high-resolution palaeoecological data. We find support for the Latitudinal Diversity Gradient and Altitudinal Diversity Gradient in both the overall vegetation community (arboreal and non-arboreal species) and the shrub and herb sub-community (non-arboreal species only), as well as a significant temporal increase in the gradient of both relationships. There was a temporal increase in (alpha) richness; the rate of turnover was high but temporally consistent for the overall vegetation community and high but decreasing over time for the shrub and herb sub-community. The rate of change in turnover was affected by latitude (steeper negative relationship at higher latitudes) and altitude (steeper negative relationship at lower altitudes). The Diversity-Stability Hypothesis was supported: vegetation communities changed from “lower richness, higher turnover” historically to “higher richness, lower turnover” more recently. Causal mechanisms for these complex interlinked biogeographical patterns remain ambiguous, but likely include climate change, non-native introductions, increasing homogenisation of generalist taxa, landscape simplification, and anthropogenic disturbance. Further research into drivers of the spatiotemporal patterns revealed here is a research priority, which is especially important in the context of biodiversity decline and climate change.
A highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection was identified in a dairy farm worker in Texas. This pathogen has been reported in multiple dairy herds in several states.
•Pollen retention on clothing after a period of light or heavy wear is tested.•Retention patterns are complex. Species and fabric characteristics are important.•Standard washing procedures for ...removing pollen from fabric are inconsistent.•These are crucial findings for all forensic investigations using palynology.
Forensic palynology has been important in criminal investigation since the 1950s and often provides evidence that is vital in identifying suspects and securing convictions. However, for such evidence to be used appropriately, it is necessary to understand the factors affecting taphonomic variability (i.e. the variability in the fate of pollen grains before they are found during forensic examination). Here, we test the relative amount of pollen retained on clothing after a period of simulated light or heavy wear based on pollen and fabric characteristics. We also test the efficiency of forensic laboratory protocols for retrieving pollen from fabrics for analysis. There was no statistically significant difference in retention of fresh or dried pollen on any fabric type. There was a substantial difference in pollen retention according to wear intensity, with considerably more pollen being retained after light wear than after heavy wear. Pollen from insect-pollinated species was retained at higher concentrations than pollen from wind-pollinated species. This pattern was consistent regardless of wear intensity but pollination type explained more of the variability in pollen retention after light wear. Fabric type was significantly related to pollen retention, but interacted strongly with plant species such that patterns were both complex and highly species-specific. The efficiency of removing pollen with the standard washing protocol differed substantially according to plant species, fabric type, and the interaction between these factors. The average efficiency was 67.7% but this ranged from 21% to 93%, demonstrating that previous assumptions on the reliability of the technique providing a representative sample for forensic use should be reviewed. This paper highlights the importance of understanding pollen and fabric characteristics when creating a pollen profile in criminal investigations and to ensure that evidence used in testimony is accurate and robust.
This study sought to examine the associations between parental identity commitment, in-depth exploration, and reconsideration of commitments with mental health outcomes (i.e., symptoms of depression ...and generalized anxiety). Furthermore, the current study examined differences in associations between both current and expecting parents. A diverse cross-sectional sample of 328 current and expectant parents (82.6% female; M
age
= 35.36 years; SD = 11.34 years, range 18-76 years) completed an online survey measuring parental identity, depressive symptoms and general anxiety. Consistent with previous literature and our hypothesis, parental identity commitment was negatively associated with generalized anxiety and depression. Additionally, reconsideration of commitment was positively associated with generalized anxiety and depression. In-depth exploration was positively associated with symptoms of anxiety, possibly as a result of lengthy periods of apprehension or questioning of parental identity. No significant difference was found among first-time expecting parents and current parents regarding the association between parental identity processes and mental health outcomes. Findings from this study illustrate the role parental identity has in general adult adaptation and shows the importance of mental health prevention and intervention programs for current and expecting parents.
We investigate the performance of the newest generation multi-model ensemble (MME) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We compare the ensemble to the previous generation models ...(CMIP3) as well as several single model ensembles (SMEs), which are constructed by varying components of single models. These SMEs range from ensembles where parameter uncertainties are sampled (perturbed physics ensembles) through to an ensemble where a number of the physical schemes are switched (multi-physics ensemble). We focus on assessing reliability against present-day climatology with rank histograms, but also investigate the effective degrees of freedom (EDoF) of the fields of variables which makes the statistical test of reliability more rigorous, and consider the distances between the observation and ensemble members. We find that the features of the CMIP5 rank histograms, of general reliability on broad scales, are consistent with those of CMIP3, suggesting a similar level of performance for present-day climatology. The spread of MMEs tends towards being “over-dispersed” rather than “under-dispersed”. In general, the SMEs examined tend towards insufficient dispersion and the rank histogram analysis identifies them as being statistically distinguishable from many of the observations. The EDoFs of the MMEs are generally greater than those of SMEs, suggesting that structural changes lead to a characteristically richer range of model behaviours than is obtained with parametric/physical-scheme-switching ensembles. For distance measures, the observations and models ensemble members are similarly spaced from each other for MMEs, whereas for the SMEs, the observations are generally well outside the ensemble. We suggest that multi-model ensembles should represent an important component of uncertainty analysis.
The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of the two perturbed physics ensembles (PPE) generated using structurally different GCMs, Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC3.2) and the ...Third Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model with slab ocean (HadSM3), is investigated. A method to quantify the shortwave (SW) cloud feedback by clouds with different cloud-top pressure is developed. It is found that the difference in the ensemble means of the ECS between the two ensembles is mainly caused by differences in the SW low-level cloud feedback. The ensemble mean SW cloud feedback and ECS of the MIROC3.2 ensemble is larger than that of the HadSM3 ensemble. This is likely related to the 1XCO2 low-level cloud albedo of the former being larger than that of the latter. It is also found that the largest contribution to the within-ensemble variation of ECS comes from the SW low-level cloud feedback in both ensembles. The mechanism that causes the within-ensemble variation is different between the two ensembles. In the HadSM3 ensemble, members with large 1XCO2 low-level cloud albedo have large SW cloud feedback and large ECS; ensemble members with large 1XCO2 cloud cover have large negative SW cloud feedback and relatively low ECS. In the MIROC3.2 ensemble, the 1XCO2 low-level cloud albedo is much more tightly constrained, and no relationship is found between it and the cloud feedback. These results indicate that both the parametric uncertainties sampled in PPEs and the structural uncertainties of GCMs are important and worth further investigation.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The performance of several state-of-the-art climate model ensembles, including two multi-model ensembles (MMEs) and four structurally different (perturbed parameter) single model ensembles (SMEs), ...are investigated for the first time using the rank histogram approach. In this method, the reliability of a model ensemble is evaluated from the point of view of whether the observations can be regarded as being sampled from the ensemble. Our analysis reveals that, in the MMEs, the climate variables we investigated are broadly reliable on the global scale, with a tendency towards overdispersion. On the other hand, in the SMEs, the reliability differs depending on the ensemble and variable field considered. In general, the mean state and historical trend of surface air temperature, and mean state of precipitation are reliable in the SMEs. However, variables such as sea level pressure or top-of-atmosphere clear-sky shortwave radiation do not cover a sufficiently wide range in some. It is not possible to assess whether this is a fundamental feature of SMEs generated with particular model, or a consequence of the algorithm used to select and perturb the values of the parameters. As under-dispersion is a potentially more serious issue when using ensembles to make projections, we recommend the application of rank histograms to assess reliability when designing and running perturbed physics SMEs.
Purpose
To determine whether treatment of anal high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL), vs active monitoring, is effective in reducing incidence of anal cancer in persons living with HIV, ...the US National Cancer Institute funded the Phase III ANal Cancer/HSIL Outcomes Research (ANCHOR) clinical trial. As no established patient-reported outcomes (PRO) tool exists for persons with anal HSIL, we sought to estimate the construct validity and responsiveness of the ANCHOR Health-Related Symptom Index (A-HRSI).
Methods
The construct validity phase enrolled ANCHOR participants who were within two weeks of randomization to complete A-HRSI and legacy PRO questionnaires at a single time point. The responsiveness phase enrolled a separate cohort of ANCHOR participants who were not yet randomized to complete A-HRSI at three time points: prior to randomization (T1), 14–70 (T2), and 71–112 (T3) days following randomization.
Results
Confirmatory factor analysis techniques established a three-factor model (i.e., physical symptoms, impact on physical functioning, impact on psychological functioning), with moderate evidence of convergent validity and strong evidence of discriminant validity in the construct validity phase (
n
= 303). We observed a significant moderate effect for changes in A-HRSI impact on physical functioning (standardized response mean = 0.52) and psychological symptoms (standardized response mean = 0.60) from T2 (
n
= 86) to T3 (
n
= 92), providing evidence of responsiveness.
Conclusion
A-HRSI is a brief PRO index that captures health-related symptoms and impacts related to anal HSIL. This instrument may have broad applicability in other contexts assessing individuals with anal HSIL, which may ultimately help improve clinical care and assist providers and patients with medical decision-making.
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