Artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) is a major contributor to deforestation and the largest anthropogenic source of atmospheric mercury worldwide. Despite significant information on the ...direct health impacts of mercury to ASGM miners, the impact of mercury contamination on downstream communities has not been well characterized, particularly in Peru's Madre de Dios region. In this area, ASGM has increased significantly since 2000 and has led to substantial political and social controversy. This research examined the spatial distribution and transport of mercury through the Madre de Dios River with distance from ASGM activity. This study also characterized risks for dietary mercury exposure to local residents who depend on fish from the river. River sediment, suspended solids from the water column, and fish samples were collected in 2013 at 62 sites near 17 communities over a 560 km stretch of the Madre de Dios River and its major tributaries. In areas downstream of known ASGM activity, mercury concentrations in sediment, suspended solids, and fish within the Madre de Dios River were elevated relative to locations upstream of mining. Fish tissue mercury concentrations were observed at levels representing a public health threat, with greater than one-third of carnivorous fish exceeding the international health standard of 0.5 mg kg(-1). This study demonstrates that communities located hundreds of kilometers downstream of ASGM activity, including children and indigenous populations who may not be involved in mining, are at risk of dietary mercury exposure that exceed acceptable body burdens. This report represents the first systematic study of the region to aid policy decision-making related to ASGM activities in Peru.
Mercury emissions from artisanal and small-scale gold mining throughout the Global South exceed coal combustion as the largest global source of mercury. We examined mercury deposition and storage in ...an area of the Peruvian Amazon heavily impacted by artisanal gold mining. Intact forests in the Peruvian Amazon near gold mining receive extremely high inputs of mercury and experience elevated total mercury and methylmercury in the atmosphere, canopy foliage, and soils. Here we show for the first time that an intact forest canopy near artisanal gold mining intercepts large amounts of particulate and gaseous mercury, at a rate proportional with total leaf area. We document substantial mercury accumulation in soils, biomass, and resident songbirds in some of the Amazon's most protected and biodiverse areas, raising important questions about how mercury pollution may constrain modern and future conservation efforts in these tropical ecosystems.
Highlights • We examine the association of health care provider and parental vaccine beliefs. • Beliefs regarding vaccine safety and disease severity are associated. • Key immunization beliefs are ...highly associated between providers and parents.
Intensity and frequency of extreme novel epidemics Marani, Marco; Katul, Gabriel G; Pan, William K ...
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS,
08/2021, Letnik:
118, Številka:
35
Journal Article
Recenzirano
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Observational knowledge of the epidemic intensity, defined as the number of deaths divided by global population and epidemic duration, and of the rate of emergence of infectious disease outbreaks is ...necessary to test theory and models and to inform public health risk assessment by quantifying the probability of extreme pandemics such as COVID-19. Despite its significance, assembling and analyzing a comprehensive global historical record spanning a variety of diseases remains an unexplored task. A global dataset of historical epidemics from 1600 to present is here compiled and examined using novel statistical methods to estimate the yearly probability of occurrence of extreme epidemics. Historical observations covering four orders of magnitude of epidemic intensity follow a common probability distribution with a slowly decaying power-law tail (generalized Pareto distribution, asymptotic exponent = -0.71). The yearly number of epidemics varies ninefold and shows systematic trends. Yearly occurrence probabilities of extreme epidemics, P
, vary widely: P
of an event with the intensity of the "Spanish influenza" (1918 to 1920) varies between 0.27 and 1.9% from 1600 to present, while its mean recurrence time today is 400 y (95% CI: 332 to 489 y). The slow decay of probability with epidemic intensity implies that extreme epidemics are relatively likely, a property previously undetected due to short observational records and stationary analysis methods. Using recent estimates of the rate of increase in disease emergence from zoonotic reservoirs associated with environmental change, we estimate that the yearly probability of occurrence of extreme epidemics can increase up to threefold in the coming decades.
This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0287412..
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
6.
CystiHuman: A model of human neurocysticercosis Bonnet, Gabrielle; Pizzitutti, Francesco; Gonzales-Gustavson, Eloy A ...
PLOS computational biology/PLoS computational biology,
05/2022, Letnik:
18, Številka:
5
Journal Article
Recenzirano
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The Taenia solium tapeworm is responsible for cysticercosis, a neglected tropical disease presenting as larvae in the body of a host following taenia egg ingestion. Neurocysticercosis (NCC), the name ...of the disease when it affects the human central nervous system, is a major cause of epilepsy in developing countries, and can also cause intracranial hypertension, hydrocephalus and death. Simulation models can help identify the most cost-effective interventions before their implementation. Modelling NCC should enable the comparison of a broad range of interventions, from treatment of human taeniasis (presence of an adult taenia worm in the human intestine) to NCC mitigation. It also allows a focus on the actual impact of the disease, rather than using proxies as is the case for other models.
This agent-based model is the first model that simulates human NCC and associated pathologies. It uses the output of another model, CystiAgent, which simulates the evolution of pig cysticercosis and human taeniasis, adding human and cyst agents, including a model of cyst location and stage, human symptoms, and treatment. CystiHuman also accounts for delays in the appearance of NCC-related symptoms. It comprises three modules detailing cyst development, seizure probability and timing, and intracranial hypertension/hydrocephalus, respectively. It has been implemented in Java MASON and calibrated in three endemic villages in Peru, then applied to another village (Rica Playa) to compare simulation results with field data in that village.
Despite limitations in available field data, parameter values found through calibration are plausible and simulated outcomes in Rica Playa are close to actual values for NCC prevalence and the way it increases with age and cases with single lesions. Initial simulations further suggest that short-term interventions followed by a rapid increase in taeniasis prevalence back to original levels may have limited impacts on NCC prevalence.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Gulf War Illness (GWI) is a major health problem for approximately 250,000 Gulf War (GW) veterans, but the etiology of GWI is unclear. We hypothesized that mitochondrial dysfunction is an important ...contributor to GWI, based on the similarity of some GWI symptoms to those occurring in some mitochondrial diseases; the plausibility that certain pollutants to which GW veterans were exposed affect mitochondria; mitochondrial effects observed in studies in laboratory models of GWI; and previous evidence of mitochondrial outcomes in studies in GW veterans. A primary role of mitochondria is generation of energy via oxidative phosphorylation. However, direct assessment of mitochondrial respiration, reflecting oxidative phosphorylation, has not been carried out in veterans with GWI. In this case-control observational study, we tested multiple measures of mitochondrial function and integrity in a cohort of 114 GW veterans, 80 with and 34 without GWI as assessed by the Kansas definition. In circulating white blood cells, we analyzed multiple measures of mitochondrial respiration and extracellular acidification, a proxy for non-aerobic energy generation; mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) copy number; mtDNA damage; and nuclear DNA damage. We also collected detailed survey data on demographics; deployment; self-reported exposure to pesticides, pyridostigmine bromide, and chemical and biological warfare agents; and current biometrics, health and activity levels. We observed a 9% increase in mtDNA content in blood in veterans with GWI, but did not detect differences in DNA damage. Basal and ATP-linked oxygen consumption were respectively 42% and 47% higher in veterans without GWI, after adjustment for mtDNA amount. We did not find evidence for a compensatory increase in anaerobic energy generation: extracellular acidification was also lower in GWI (12% lower at baseline). A subset of 27 and 26 veterans returned for second and third visits, allowing us to measure stability of mitochondrial parameters over time. mtDNA CN, mtDNA damage, ATP-linked OCR, and spare respiratory capacity were moderately replicable over time, with intraclass correlation coefficients of 0.43, 0.44, 0.50, and 0.57, respectively. Other measures showed higher visit-to-visit variability. Many measurements showed lower replicability over time among veterans with GWI compared to veterans without GWI. Finally, we found a strong association between recalled exposure to pesticides, pyridostigmine bromide, and chemical and biological warfare agents and GWI (p < 0.01, p < 0.01, and p < 0.0001, respectively). Our results demonstrate decreased mitochondrial respiratory function as well as decreased glycolytic activity, both of which are consistent with decreased energy availability, in peripheral blood mononuclear cells in veterans with GWI.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
CONTEXT School immunization requirements have played a major role in controlling vaccine-preventable diseases in the United States. Most states offer nonmedical exemptions to school requirements ...(religious or personal belief). Exemptors are at increased risk of acquiring and transmitting disease. The role of exemption policies may be especially important for pertussis, which is endemic in the United States. OBJECTIVE To determine if (1) the rates of nonmedical exemptions differ and have been increasing in states that offer only religious vs personal belief exemptions; (2) the rates of nonmedical exemptions differ and have been increasing in states that have easy vs medium and easy vs difficult processes for obtaining exemptions; and (3) pertussis incidence is associated with policies of granting personal belief exemptions, ease of obtaining exemptions, and acceptance of parental signature as sufficient proof of compliance with school immunization requirements. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We analyzed 1991 through 2004 state-level rates of nonmedical exemptions at school entry and 1986 through 2004 pertussis incidence data for individuals aged 18 years or younger. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES State-level exemption rates and pertussis incidence. RESULTS From 2001 through 2004, states that permitted personal belief exemptions had higher nonmedical exemption rates than states that offered only religious exemptions, and states that easily granted exemptions had higher nonmedical exemption rates in 2002 through 2003 compared with states with medium and difficult exemption processes. The mean exemption rate increased an average of 6% per year, from 0.99% in 1991 to 2.54% in 2004, among states that offered personal belief exemptions. In states that easily granted exemptions, the rate increased 5% per year, from 1.26% in 1991 to 2.51% in 2004. No statistically significant change was seen in states that offered only religious exemptions or that had medium and difficult exemption processes. In multivariate analyses adjusting for demographics, easier granting of exemptions (incidence rate ratio = 1.53; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-2.14) and availability of personal belief exemptions (incidence rate ratio = 1.48; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-2.13) were associated with increased pertussis incidence. CONCLUSIONS Permitting personal belief exemptions and easily granting exemptions are associated with higher and increasing nonmedical US exemption rates. State policies granting personal belief exemptions and states that easily grant exemptions are associated with increased pertussis incidence. States should examine their exemption policies to ensure control of pertussis and other vaccine-preventable diseases.
The pork tapeworm (Taenia solium) is a parasitic helminth that imposes a major health and economic burden on poor rural populations around the world. As recognized by the World Health Organization, a ...key barrier for achieving control of T. solium is the lack of an accurate and validated simulation model with which to study transmission and evaluate available control and elimination strategies. CystiAgent is a spatially-explicit agent based model for T. solium that is unique among T. solium models in its ability to represent key spatial and environmental features of transmission and simulate spatially targeted interventions, such as ring strategy.
We validated CystiAgent against results from the Ring Strategy Trial (RST)-a large cluster-randomized trial conducted in northern Peru that evaluated six unique interventions for T. solium control in 23 villages. For the validation, each intervention strategy was replicated in CystiAgent, and the simulated prevalences of human taeniasis, porcine cysticercosis, and porcine seroincidence were compared against prevalence estimates from the trial. Results showed that CystiAgent produced declines in transmission in response to each of the six intervention strategies, but overestimated the effect of interventions in the majority of villages; simulated prevalences for human taenasis and porcine cysticercosis at the end of the trial were a median of 0.53 and 5.0 percentages points less than prevalence observed at the end of the trial, respectively.
The validation of CystiAgent represented an important step towards developing an accurate and reliable T. solium transmission model that can be deployed to fill critical gaps in our understanding of T. solium transmission and control. To improve model accuracy, future versions would benefit from improved data on pig immunity and resistance, field effectiveness of anti-helminthic treatment, and factors driving spatial clustering of T. solium infections including dispersion and contact with T. solium eggs in the environment.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The pork tapeworm, Taenia solium, is the cause of a preventable zoonotic disease, cysticercosis, affecting both pigs and humans. Continued endemic transmission of T. solium is a major contributor of ...epilepsy and other neurologic morbidity, and the source of important economic losses, in many rural areas of developing countries. Simulation modelling can play an important role in aiding the design and evaluation of strategies to control or even eliminate transmission of the parasite. In this paper, we present a new agent based model of local-scale T. solium transmission and a new, non-local, approach to the model calibration to fit model outputs to observed human taeniasis and pig cysticercosis prevalence simultaneously for several endemic villages. The model fully describes all relevant aspects of T. solium transmission, including the processes of pig and human infection, the spatial distribution of human and pig populations, the production of pork for human consumption, and the movement of humans and pigs in and out in several endemic villages of the northwest of Peru. Despite the high level of uncertainty associated with the empirical measurements of epidemiological data associated with T. solium, the non-local calibrated model parametrization reproduces the observed prevalences with an acceptable precision. It does so not only for the villages used to calibrate the model, but also for villages not included in the calibration process. This important finding demonstrates that the model, including its calibrated parametrization, can be successfully transferred within an endemic region. This will enable future studies to inform the design and optimization of T. solium control interventions in villages where the calibration may be prevented by the limited amount of empirical data, expanding the possible applications to a wider range of settings compared to previous models.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
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