The HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) programme has completed three of five planned aircraft transects spanning the Pacific from 85° N to 67° S, with vertical profiles every approximately 2.2° ...of latitude. Measurements include greenhouse gases, long-lived tracers, reactive species, O 2 /N 2 ratio, black carbon (BC), aerosols and CO 2 isotopes. Our goals are to address the problem of determining surface emissions, transport strength and patterns, and removal rates of atmospheric trace gases and aerosols at global scales and to provide strong tests of satellite data and global models. HIPPO data show dense pollution and BC at high altitudes over the Arctic, imprints of large N 2 O sources from tropical lands and convective storms, sources of pollution and biogenic CH 4 in the Arctic, and summertime uptake of CO 2 and sources for O 2 at high southern latitudes. Global chemical signatures of atmospheric transport are imaged, showing remarkably sharp horizontal gradients at air mass boundaries, weak vertical gradients and inverted profiles (maxima aloft) in both hemispheres. These features challenge satellite algorithms, global models and inversion analyses to derive surface fluxes. HIPPO data can play a crucial role in identifying and resolving questions of global sources, sinks and transport of atmospheric gases and aerosols.
Terrestrial ecosystems currently offset one-quarter of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions because of a slight imbalance between global terrestrial photosynthesis and respiration. ...Understanding what controls these two biological fluxes is therefore crucial to predicting climate change. Yet there is no way of directly measuring the photosynthesis or daytime respiration of a whole ecosystem of interacting organisms; instead, these fluxes are generally inferred from measurements of net ecosystem-atmosphere CO2 exchange (NEE), in a way that is based on assumed ecosystem-scale responses to the environment. The consequent view of temperate deciduous forests (an important CO2 sink) is that, first, ecosystem respiration is greater during the day than at night; and second, ecosystem photosynthetic light-use efficiency peaks after leaf expansion in spring and then declines, presumably because of leaf ageing or water stress. This view has underlain the development of terrestrial biosphere models used in climate prediction and of remote sensing indices of global biosphere productivity. Here, we use new isotopic instrumentation to determine ecosystem photosynthesis and daytime respiration in a temperate deciduous forest over a three-year period. We find that ecosystem respiration is lower during the day than at night-the first robust evidence of the inhibition of leaf respiration by light at the ecosystem scale. Because they do not capture this effect, standard approaches overestimate ecosystem photosynthesis and daytime respiration in the first half of the growing season at our site, and inaccurately portray ecosystem photosynthetic light-use efficiency. These findings revise our understanding of forest-atmosphere carbon exchange, and provide a basis for investigating how leaf-level physiological dynamics manifest at the canopy scale in other ecosystems.
Insights into how terrestrial ecosystems affect the Earth's response to changes in climate and rising atmospheric CO2 levels rely heavily on the predictions of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). ...These models contain detailed mechanistic representations of biological processes affecting terrestrial ecosystems; however, their ability to simultaneously predict field‐based measurements of terrestrial vegetation dynamics and carbon fluxes has remained largely untested. In this study, we address this issue by developing a constrained implementation of a new structured TBM, the Ecosystem Demography model version 2 (ED2), which explicitly tracks the dynamics of fine‐scale ecosystem structure and function. Carbon and water flux measurements from an eddy‐flux tower are used in conjunction with forest inventory measurements of tree growth and mortality at Harvard Forest (42.5°N, 72.1°W) to estimate a number of important but weakly constrained model parameters. Evaluation against a decade of tower flux and forest dynamics measurements shows that the constrained ED2 model yields greatly improved predictions of annual net ecosystem productivity, carbon partitioning, and growth and mortality dynamics of both hardwood and conifer trees. The generality of the model formulation is then evaluated by comparing the model's predictions against measurements from two other eddy‐flux towers and forest inventories of the northeastern United States and Quebec. Despite the markedly different composition throughout this region, the optimized model realistically predicts observed patterns of carbon fluxes and tree growth. These results demonstrate how TBMs parameterized with field‐based measurements can provide quantitative insight into the underlying biological processes governing ecosystem composition, structure, and function at larger scales.
The global burden of atmospheric methane has been increasing over the past decade, but the causes are not well understood. National inventory estimates from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ...indicate no significant trend in U.S. anthropogenic methane emissions from 2002 to present. Here we use satellite retrievals and surface observations of atmospheric methane to suggest that U.S. methane emissions have increased by more than 30% over the 2002–2014 period. The trend is largest in the central part of the country, but we cannot readily attribute it to any specific source type. This large increase in U.S. methane emissions could account for 30–60% of the global growth of atmospheric methane seen in the past decade.
Key Points
We identify a large increase in U.S. methane emissions over the past decade
Increase occurred during a time when emission inventories indicate no change in U.S. emissions
The U.S. could account for 30‐60% of the global increase in atmospheric methane over the past decade
Seasonal variations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the Northern Hemisphere have increased since the 1950s, but sparse observations have prevented a clear assessment of the patterns of ...long-term change and the underlying mechanisms. We compare recent aircraft-based observations of CO₂ above the North Pacific and Arctic Oceans to earlier data from 1958 to 1961 and find that the seasonal amplitude at altitudes of 3 to 6 km increased by 50% for 45° to 90° N but by less than 25% for 10° to 45°N. An increase of 30 to 60% in the seasonal exchange of CO₂ by northern extratropical land ecosystems, focused on boreal forests, is implicated, substantially more than simulated by current land ecosystem models. The observations appear to signal large ecological changes in northern forests and a major shift in the global carbon cycle.
Methane emissions from U.S. and Canadian natural gas systems appear larger than official estimates.
Natural gas (NG) is a potential “bridge fuel” during transition to a decarbonized energy system: It ...emits less carbon dioxide during combustion than other fossil fuels and can be used in many industries. However, because of the high global warming potential of methane (CH
4
, the major component of NG), climate benefits from NG use depend on system leakage rates. Some recent estimates of leakage have challenged the benefits of switching from coal to NG, a large near-term greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction opportunity (
1
–
3
). Also, global atmospheric CH
4
concentrations are on the rise, with the causes still poorly understood (
4
).
Refractory black carbon (rBC) aerosol loadings and mass size distributions have been quantified during the HIPPO campaign above the remote Pacific from 80N to 67S. Over 100 vertical profiles of rBC ...loadings, extending from ∼0.3 to ∼14 km were obtained with a Single‐Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) during a two‐week period in January 2009. The dataset provides a striking, and previously unobtainable, pole‐to‐pole snapshot of rBC mass loadings. rBC vertical concentration profiles reveal significant dependences on latitude, while associated rBC mass size distributions were highly uniform. The vertical profiles averaged in five latitude zones were compared to an ensemble of AEROCOM model fields. The model ensemble spread in each zone was over an order of magnitude, while the model average over‐predicted rBC concentrations overall by a factor five. The comparisons suggest that rBC removal in global models may need to be evaluated separately in different latitude regions and perhaps enhanced.
We analyzed 13 years (1992−2004) of CO2 flux data, biometry, and meteorology from a mixed deciduous forest in central Massachusetts. Annual net uptake of CO2 ranged from 1.0 to 4.7 Mg‐C ha−1yr−1, ...with an average of 2.5 Mg‐C ha−1yr−1. Uptake rates increased systematically, nearly doubling over the period despite forest age of 75–110 years; there were parallel increases in midsummer photosynthetic capacity at high light level (21.5−31.5 μmole m−2s−1), woody biomass (101−115 Mg‐C ha−1 from 1993−2005, mostly due to growth of one species, red oak), and peak leaf area index (4.5−5.5 from 1998–2005). The long‐term trends were interrupted in 1998 by sharp declines in photosynthetic capacity, net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2, and other parameters, with recovery over the next 3 years. The observations were compared to empirical functions giving the mean responses to temperature and light, and to a terrestrial ecosystem model (IBIS2). Variations in gross ecosystem exchange of CO2 (GEE) and NEE on hourly to monthly timescales were represented well as prompt responses to the environment, but interannual variations and long‐term trends were not. IBIS2 simulated mean annual NEE, but greatly overpredicted the amplitude of the seasonal cycle and did not predict the decadal trend. The drivers of interannual and decadal changes in NEE are long‐term increases in tree biomass, successional change in forest composition, and disturbance events, processes not well represented in current models.
The causes of renewed growth in the atmospheric CH4 burden since 2007 are still poorly understood and subject of intensive scientific discussion. We present a reanalysis of global CH4 emissions ...during the 2000s, based on the TM5‐4DVAR inverse modeling system. The model is optimized using high‐accuracy surface observations from NOAA ESRL's global air sampling network for 2000–2010 combined with retrievals of column‐averaged CH4 mole fractions from SCIAMACHY onboard ENVISAT (starting 2003). Using climatological OH fields, derived global total emissions for 2007–2010 are 16–20 Tg CH4/yr higher compared to 2003–2005. Most of the inferred emission increase was located in the tropics (9–14 Tg CH4/yr) and mid‐latitudes of the northern hemisphere (6–8 Tg CH4/yr), while no significant trend was derived for Arctic latitudes. The atmospheric increase can be attributed mainly to increased anthropogenic emissions, but the derived trend is significantly smaller than estimated in the EDGARv4.2 emission inventory. Superimposed on the increasing trend in anthropogenic CH4 emissions are significant inter‐annual variations (IAV) of emissions from wetlands (up to ±10 Tg CH4/yr), and biomass burning (up to ±7 Tg CH4/yr). Sensitivity experiments, which investigated the impact of the SCIAMACHY observations (versus inversions using only surface observations), of the OH fields used, and of a priori emission inventories, resulted in differences in the detailed latitudinal attribution of CH4 emissions, but the IAV and trends aggregated over larger latitude bands were reasonably robust. All sensitivity experiments show similar performance against independent shipboard and airborne observations used for validation, except over Amazonia where satellite retrievals improved agreement with observations in the free troposphere.
Key Points
A reanalysis of global CH4 emissions during the 2000s is presented
derived global total emissions 2007‐2010 16‐20 Tg CH4/yr higher than 2003‐2005
increase mainly in the tropics and NH mid‐latitudes
Airborne and ground‐based measurements during the CalNex (California Research at the Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change) field study in May/June 2010 show a weekend effect in ozone in the South ...Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) consistent with previous observations. The well‐known and much‐studied weekend ozone effect has been attributed to weekend reductions in nitrogen oxide (NOx = NO + NO2) emissions, which affect ozone levels via two processes: (1) reduced ozone loss by titration and (2) enhanced photochemical production of ozone due to an increased ratio of non‐methane volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to NOx. In accord with previous assessments, the 2010 airborne and ground‐based data show an average decrease in NOx of 46 ± 11% and 34 ± 4%, respectively, and an average increase in VOC/NOxratio of 48 ± 8% and 43 ± 22%, respectively, on weekends. This work extends current understanding of the weekend ozone effect in the SoCAB by identifying its major causes and quantifying their relative importance from the available CalNex data. Increased weekend production of a VOC‐NOxoxidation product, peroxyacetyl nitrate, compared to a radical termination product, nitric acid, indicates a significant contribution from increased photochemical production on weekends. Weekday‐to‐weekend differences in the products of NOx oxidation show 45 ± 13% and 42 ± 12% more extensive photochemical processing and, when compared with odd oxygen (Ox = O3 + NO2), 51 ± 14% and 22 ± 17% greater ozone production efficiency on weekends in the airborne and ground‐based data, respectively, indicating that both contribute to higher weekend ozone levels in the SoCAB.
Key Points
A weekend ozone effect is observed in the South Coast Air Basin
Reductions in NOx emissions drive weekday and weekend differences in ozone
Photochemical ozone production contributes to observed weekend ozone levels
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