ABSTRACT
The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is expected to observe galaxies at z > 10 that are presently inaccessible. Here, we use a self-consistent empirical model, the universemachine, to ...generate mock galaxy catalogues and light-cones over the redshift range z = 0−15. These data include realistic galaxy properties (stellar masses, star formation rates, and UV luminosities), galaxy–halo relationships, and galaxy–galaxy clustering. Mock observables are also provided for different model parameters spanning observational uncertainties at z < 10. We predict that Cycle 1 JWST surveys will very likely detect galaxies with M* > 107 M⊙ and/or M1500 < −17 out to at least z ∼ 13.5. Number density uncertainties at z > 12 expand dramatically, so efforts to detect z > 12 galaxies will provide the most valuable constraints on galaxy formation models. The faint-end slopes of the stellar mass/luminosity functions at a given mass/luminosity threshold steepen as redshift increases. This is because observable galaxies are hosted by haloes in the exponentially falling regime of the halo mass function at high redshifts. Hence, these faint-end slopes are robustly predicted to become shallower below current observable limits (M* < 107 M⊙ or M1500 > −17). For reionization models, extrapolating luminosity functions with a constant faint-end slope from M1500 = −17 down to M1500 = −12 gives the most reasonable upper limit for the total UV luminosity and cosmic star formation rate up to z ∼ 12. We compare to three other empirical models and one semi-analytic model, showing that the range of predicted observables from our approach encompasses predictions from other techniques. Public catalogues and light-cones for common fields are available online.
ABSTRACT
Galaxies forming in low-mass haloes are thought to be primarily responsible for reionizing the Universe during the first billion years after the big bang. Yet, these haloes are extremely ...inefficient at forming stars in the nearby Universe. In this work, we address this apparent tension, and ask whether a physically motivated model of galaxy formation that reproduces the observed abundance of faint galaxies in the nearby Universe is also consistent with available observational constraints on the reionization history. By interfacing the Santa Cruz semi-analytic model for galaxy formation with an analytic reionization model, we constructed a computationally efficient pipeline that connects ‘ground-level’ galaxy formation physics to ‘top-level’ cosmological-scale observables. Based on photometric properties of the galaxy populations predicted up to z = 15, we compute the reionization history of intergalactic hydrogen. We quantify the three degenerate quantities that influence the total ionizing photon budget, including the abundance of galaxies, the intrinsic production rate of ionizing photons, and the LyC escape fraction. We explore covariances between these quantities using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method. We find that our locally calibrated model is consistent with all currently available constraints on the reionization history, under reasonable assumptions about the LyC escape fraction. We quantify the fraction of ionizing photons produced by galaxies of different luminosities and find that the galaxies expected to be detected in James Webb Space Telescope Near-Infrared Camera (NIRCam) wide and deep surveys are responsible for producing ∼40–80 per cent of ionizing photons throughout the Epoch of Reionization. All results presented in this work are available at https://www.simonsfoundation.org/semi-analytic-forecasts-for-jwst/.
We present a detailed stellar population analysis of 11 bright (H < 26.6) galaxies at z=9−11 (three spectroscopically confirmed) to constrain the chemical enrichment and growth of stellar mass of ...early galaxies. We use the flexible Bayesian spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting code Prospector with a range of star-formation histories (SFHs), a flexible dust attenuation law and a self-consistent modeling of emission lines. This approach allows us to assess how different priors affect our results, and how well we can break degeneracies between dust attenuation, stellar ages, metallicity and emission lines using data which probe only the rest-frame ultraviolet to optical wavelengths. We measure a median observed ultraviolet spectral slope β= −1.87+0.35−0.43 for relatively massive star-forming galaxies (9<log(M?/M)<10), consistent with no change from z=4 to z=9−10 at these stellar masses, implying rapid enrichment. Our SED-fitting results are consistent with a star-forming main sequence with sub-linear slope (0.7±0.2) and specific star-formation rates of 3−10 Gyr−1. However, the stellar ages and SFHs are less well constrained. Using different SFH priors, we cannot distinguish between median mass-weighted ages of ∼50−150 Myr, which corresponds to 50% formation redshifts of z50∼10−12 atz∼9 and is of the order of the dynamical timescales of these systems. Importantly, the models with different SFH priors are able to fit the data equally well. We conclude that the current observational data cannot tightly constrain the mass-buildup timescales of these z=9−11 galaxies, with our results consistent with SFHs implying both a shallow and steep increase of the cosmic SFR density with time at z >10
ABSTRACT
The James Webb Space Telescope is expected to enable transformational progress in studying galaxy populations in the very early Universe, during the epoch of reionization. A critical ...parameter for understanding the sources that reionized the Universe is the Lyman-continuum production efficiency, ξion, defined as the rate of production of ionizing photons divided by the intrinsic UV luminosity. In this work, we combine self-consistent star formation and chemical enrichment histories predicted by semi-analytic models of galaxy formation with stellar population synthesis (SPS) models to predict the expected dependence of ξion on galaxy properties and cosmic epoch from z = 4–10. We then explore the sensitivity of the production rate of ionizing photons, $\dot{N}_\text{ion}$, to the choice of SPS model and the treatment of stellar feedback in our galaxy formation model. We compare our results to those of other simulations, constraints from empirical models, and observations. We find that adopting SPS models that include binary stars predict about a factor of 2 more ionizing radiation than models that only assume single stellar populations. We find that UV-faint, low-mass galaxies have values of ξion about 0.25 dex higher than those of more massive galaxies, but find weak evolution with cosmic time, about 0.2 dex from z ∼ 12–4 at fixed rest-UV luminosity. We provide predictions of $\dot{N}_\text{ion}$ as a function of Mh and a number of other galaxy properties. All results presented in this work are available at https://www.simonsfoundation.org/semi-analytic-forecasts-for-jwst/.
We present two bright galaxy candidates at z ∼ 12–13 identified in our H-dropout Lyman break selection with 2.3 deg(exp 2) near-infrared deep imaging data. These galaxy candidates, selected after ...careful screening of foreground interlopers, have spectral energy distributions showing a sharp discontinuity around 1.7 μm, a flat continuum at 2–5 μm, and nondetections at <1.2 μm in the available photometric data sets, all of which are consistent with a z > 12 galaxy. An ALMA program targeting one of the candidates shows a tentative 4σ O III 88 μm line at z = 13.27, in agreement with its photometric redshift estimate. The number density of the z ∼ 12–13 candidates is comparable to that of bright z ∼ 10 galaxies and is consistent with a recently proposed double-power-law luminosity function rather than the Schechter function, indicating little evolution in the abundance of bright galaxies from z ∼ 4 to 13. Comparisons with theoretical models show that the models cannot reproduce the bright end of rest-frame ultraviolet luminosity functions at z ∼ 10–13. Combined with recent studies reporting similarly bright galaxies at z ∼ 9–11 and mature stellar populations at z ∼ 6–9, our results indicate the existence of a number of star-forming galaxies at z > 10, which will be detected with upcoming space missions such as the James Webb Space Telescope, Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, and GREX-PLUS.
Geological evidence shows that ancient Mars had large volumes of liquid water. Models of past hydrogen escape to space, calibrated with observations of the current escape rate, cannot explain the ...present-day deuterium-to-hydrogen isotope ratio (D/H). We simulated volcanic degassing, atmospheric escape, and crustal hydration on Mars, incorporating observational constraints from spacecraft, rovers, and meteorites. We found that ancient water volumes equivalent to a 100 to 1500 meter global layer are simultaneously compatible with the geological evidence, loss rate estimates, and D/H measurements. In our model, the volume of water participating in the hydrological cycle decreased by 40 to 95% over the Noachian period (~3.7 billion to 4.1 billion years ago), reaching present-day values by ~3.0 billion years ago. Between 30 and 99% of martian water was sequestered through crustal hydration, demonstrating that irreversible chemical weathering can increase the aridity of terrestrial planets.
ABSTRACT
The long anticipated James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will be able to directly detect large samples of galaxies at very high redshift. Using the well-established, computationally efficient ...Santa Cruz semi-analytic model, with recently implemented multiphase gas partitioning, and H2-based star formation recipes, we make predictions for a wide variety of galaxy properties for galaxy populations at z = 4–10. In this work, we provide forecasts for the physical properties of high-redshift galaxies and links to their photometric properties. With physical parameters calibrated only to z ∼ 0 observations, our model predictions are in good agreement with current observational constraints on stellar mass and star formation rate distribution functions up to z ∼ 8. We also provide predictions representing wide, deep, and lensed JWST survey configurations. We study the redshift evolution of key galaxy properties and the scaling relations among them. Taking advantage of our models’ high computational efficiency, we study the impact of systematically varying the model parameters. All distribution functions and scaling relations presented in this work are available at https://www.simonsfoundation.org/semi-analytic-forecasts-for-jwst/.
ABSTRACT
In anticipation of the new era of high-redshift exploration marked by the commissioning of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), we present two sets of galaxy catalogues that are designed ...to aid the planning and interpretation of observing programs. We provide a set of 40 wide-field light-cones with footprints spanning approximately ∼1000 arcmin2 containing galaxies up to z = 10, and a new set of eight ultradeep light-cones with 132 arcmin2 footprints, containing galaxies up to z ∼ 12 down to the magnitudes expected to be reached in the deepest JWST surveys. These mock light-cones are extracted from dissipationless N-body simulations and populated with galaxies using the well-established, computationally efficient Santa Cruz semi-analytic model for galaxy formation. We provide a wide range of predicted physical properties, and simulated photometry from Near-Infrared Camera (NIRCam) and many other instruments. We explore the predicted counts and luminosity functions and angular two-point correlation functions for galaxies in these simulated light-cones. We also explore the predicted field-to-field variance using multiple light-cone realizations. We find that these light-cones reproduce the available measurements of observed clustering from 0.2 ≲ z ≲ 7.5 very well. We provide predictions for galaxy clustering at high redshift that may be obtained from future JWST observations. All of the light-cones presented here are made available through a web-based interactive data release portal.
Abstract
Mid-infrared (mid-IR) observations are powerful in identifying heavily obscured active galactic nuclei (AGN) that have weak emission in other wavelengths. Data from the Mid-Infrared ...Instrument (MIRI) on board the James Webb Space Telescope provides an excellent opportunity to perform such studies. We take advantage of the MIRI imaging data from the Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science Survey to investigate the AGN population in the distant universe. We estimate the source properties of MIRI-selected objects by utilizing spectral energy distribution (SED) modeling, and classify them into star-forming galaxies (SFs), SF-AGN mixed objects, and AGN. The source numbers of these types are 433, 102, and 25, respectively, from four MIRI pointings covering ∼9 arcmin
2
. The sample spans a redshift range of ≈0–5. We derive the median SEDs for all three source types, respectively, and publicly release them. The median MIRI SED of AGN is similar to the typical SEDs of hot dust-obscured galaxies and Seyfert 2s, for which the mid-IR SEDs are dominated by emission from AGN-heated hot dust. Based on our SED-fit results, we estimate the black hole accretion density (BHAD; i.e., total BH growth rate per comoving volume) as a function of redshift. At
z
< 3, the resulting BHAD agrees with the X-ray measurements in general. At
z
> 3, we identify a total of 27 AGN and SF-AGN mixed objects, leading to that our high-
z
BHAD is substantially higher than the X-ray results (∼0.5 dex at
z
≈ 3–5). This difference indicates MIRI can identify a large population of heavily obscured AGN missed by X-ray surveys at high redshifts.
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