The response of Earth’s climate system to orbital forcing has been highly state dependent over the past 66 million years.
The states of past climate
Deep-sea benthic foraminifera preserve an ...essential record of Earth's past climate in their oxygen- and carbon-isotope compositions. However, this record lacks sufficient temporal resolution and/or age control in some places to determine which climate forcing and feedback mechanisms were most important. Westerhold
et al.
present a highly resolved and well-dated record of benthic carbon and oxygen isotopes for the past 66 million years. Their reconstruction and analysis show that Earth's climate can be grouped into discrete states separated by transitions related to changing greenhouse gas levels and the growth of polar ice sheets. Each climate state is paced by orbital cycles but responds to variations in radiative forcing in a state-dependent manner.
Science
, this issue p.
1383
Much of our understanding of Earth’s past climate comes from the measurement of oxygen and carbon isotope variations in deep-sea benthic foraminifera. Yet, long intervals in existing records lack the temporal resolution and age control needed to thoroughly categorize climate states of the Cenozoic era and to study their dynamics. Here, we present a new, highly resolved, astronomically dated, continuous composite of benthic foraminifer isotope records developed in our laboratories. Four climate states—Hothouse, Warmhouse, Coolhouse, Icehouse—are identified on the basis of their distinctive response to astronomical forcing depending on greenhouse gas concentrations and polar ice sheet volume. Statistical analysis of the nonlinear behavior encoded in our record reveals the key role that polar ice volume plays in the predictability of Cenozoic climate dynamics.
We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global ...carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
By the year 2400, it is predicted that humans will have released about 5,000 gigatonnes of carbon to the atmosphere since the start of the industrial revolution if fossil-fuel emissions continue ...unabated and carbon-sequestration efforts remain at current levels. But now past episodes of greenhouse warming are providing insight into the coupling of climate and the carbon cycle and thus may help to predict the consequences of unabated carbon emissions in the future.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IJS, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The Late Paleocene and Early Eocene were characterized by warm greenhouse climates, punctuated by a series of rapid warming and ocean acidification events known as “hyperthermals”, thought to have ...been paced or triggered by orbital cycles. While these hyperthermals, such as the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), have been studied in great detail, the background low-amplitude cycles seen in carbon and oxygen-isotope records throughout the Paleocene–Eocene have hitherto not been resolved. Here we present a 7.7 million year (myr) long, high-resolution, orbitally-tuned, benthic foraminiferal stable-isotope record spanning the late Paleocene and early Eocene interval (∼52.5–60.5 Ma) from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1262, South Atlantic. This high resolution (∼2–4 kyr) record allows the changing character and phasing of orbitally-modulated cycles to be studied in unprecedented detail as it reflects the long-term trend in carbon cycle and climate over this interval. The main pacemaker in the benthic oxygen-isotope (δ18O) and carbon-isotope (δ13C) records from ODP Site 1262, are the long (405 kyr) and short (100 kyr) eccentricity cycles, and precession (21 kyr). Obliquity (41 kyr) is almost absent throughout the section except for a few brief intervals where it has a relatively weak influence. During the course of the Early Paleogene record, and particularly in the latest Paleocene, eccentricity-paced negative carbon-isotope excursions (δ13C, CIEs) and coeval negative oxygen-isotope (δ18O) excursions correspond to low carbonate (CaCO3) and coarse fraction (%CF) values due to increased carbonate dissolution, suggesting shoaling of the lysocline and accompanied changes in the global exogenic carbon cycle. These negative CIEs and δ18O events coincide with maxima in eccentricity, with changes in δ18O leading changes in δ13C by ∼6 (±5) kyr in the 405-kyr band and by ∼3 (±1) kyr in the higher frequency 100-kyr band on average. However, these phase lags are not constant, with the lag in the 405-kyr band extending from ∼4 (±5) kyr to ∼21 (±2) kyr from the late Paleocene to the early Eocene, suggesting a progressively weaker coupling of climate and the carbon-cycle with time. The higher amplitude 405-kyr cycles in the latest Paleocene are associated with changes in bottom water temperature of 2–4 °C, while the most prominent 100 kyr-paced cycles can be accompanied by changes of up to 1.5 °C. Comparison of the 1262 record with a lower resolution, but orbitally-tuned benthic record for Site 1209 in the Pacific allows for verification of key features of the benthic isotope records which are global in scale including a key warming step at 57.7 Ma.
•A 7.7-myr long, orbitally-tuned, benthic stable-isotope record is presented.•Site 1262 data is the longest complete Atlantic record for the Paleocene–Eocene.•Long and short eccentricity and precession are the dominant pacemakers.•Consistent low power in the obliquity band suggests small polar ice volumes.•Sedimentary carbon reservoirs may include permafrost, peat, or methane hydrate.
The Paleocene‐Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) has been associated with the release of several thousands of petagrams of carbon (Pg C) as methane and/or carbon dioxide into the ocean‐atmosphere system ...within ~10 kyr, on the basis of the co‐occurrence of a carbon isotope excursion (CIE), widespread dissolution of deep sea carbonates, and global warming. In theory, this rapid carbon release should have severely acidified the surface ocean, though no geochemical evidence has yet been presented. Using boron‐based proxies for surface ocean carbonate chemistry, we present the first observational evidence for a drop in the pH of surface and thermocline seawater during the PETM. Planktic foraminifers from a drill site in the North Pacific (Ocean Drilling Program Site 1209) show a ~0.8‰ decrease in boron isotopic composition (δ11B) at the onset of the event, along with a 30–40% reduction in shell B/Ca. Similar trends in δ11B are present in two lower‐resolution records from the South Atlantic and Equatorial Pacific. These observations are consistent with significant, global acidification of the surface ocean lasting at least 70 kyr and requiring sustained carbon release. The anomalies in the B records are consistent with an initial surface pH drop of ~0.3 units, at the upper range of model‐based estimates of acidification.
Key Points
Boron proxies document surface ocean acidification during the PETM
Acidification was rapid and sustained, requiring prolonged carbon release
Magnitude of acidification is at high end of estimates for PETM emissions
The upper Paleocene and lower Eocene are marked by several prominent (>
1‰) carbon isotope (δ
13C) excursions (CIE) that coincide with transient global warmings, or thermal maxima, including the ...Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). The CIE, which are recorded mainly in marine sedimentary sequences, have also been identified in continental sequences, occurred episodically, and yet appear to be paced or triggered by orbital forcing. To constrain the timing and scale of the CIE relative to long-term baseline variability, we have constructed a 4.52
million year (myr) long, high-resolution (~
3
kyr) bulk sediment carbon isotope record spanning the lower Eocene to upper Paleocene (C25r–C24n) from a pelagic sediment section recovered at ODP Site 1262 in the southeast Atlantic. This section, which was orbitally-tuned utilizing high-resolution core log physical property and geochemical records, is the most stratigraphically complete upper Paleocene to lower Eocene sequence recovered to date. Time-series analysis of the carbon isotope record along with a high-resolution Fe intensity record obtained by XRF core scanner reveal cyclicity with variance concentrated primarily in the precession (21
kyr) and eccentricity bands (100 and 400-kyr) throughout the upper Paleocene–lower Eocene. In general, minima in δ
13C correspond with peaks in Fe (i.e., carbonate dissolution), both of which appear to be in phase with maxima in eccentricity. This covariance is consistent with excess oceanic uptake of isotopically depleted carbon resulting in lower carbonate saturation during periods of high eccentricity. This relationship includes all late Paleocene and early Eocene CIE confirming pacing by orbital forcing. The lone exception is the PETM, which appears to be out of phase with the 400-kyr cycle, though possibly in phase with the 100-kyr cycle, reinforcing the notion that a mechanism other than orbital forcing and/or an additional source of carbon is required to account for the occurrence and unusual scale of this event.
About 34 million years ago, Earth's climate cooled and an ice sheet formed on Antarctica as atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) fell below ~750 parts per million (ppm). Sedimentary cycles from a drill ...core in the western Ross Sea provide direct evidence of orbitally controlled glacial cycles between 34 million and 31 million years ago. Initially, under atmospheric CO₂ levels of ≥600 ppm, a smaller Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), restricted to the terrestrial continent, was highly responsive to local insolation forcing. A more stable, continental-scale ice sheet calving at the coastline did not form until ~32.8 million years ago, coincident with the earliest time that atmospheric CO₂ levels fell below ~600 ppm. Our results provide insight into the potential of the AIS for threshold behavior and have implications for its sensitivity to atmospheric CO₂ concentrations above present-day levels.
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