This study contributes to the discussion on possible effects of El Niño on North Atlantic/European regional climates. We use NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to show how the two different types of El Niños ...(the central Pacific, or CP, and the east Pacific, or EP) result in remarkably different European winter temperature anomalies, specifically weak warming during EP and significant cooling during CP El Niños, the latter being associated with a negative phase of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our results diverge from former suggestions addressing the weakened stratospheric polar vortex as the dominant factor contributing to the El Niño/NAO teleconnection. We propose a tropospheric bridge as the mechanism primarily responsible for the establishment of a negative NAO phase and of associated cold European winters. This mechanism includes the subtropical jet (STJ) waveguide being activated only during CP El Niños, when anomalous convective heating occurs near the edge of the Pacific warm pool. Under these conditions the STJ is enhanced by planetary wave flux divergence in the subtropical upper troposphere, providing favorable conditions for the propagation of a wave number 5 disturbance around the subtropical Northern Hemisphere. This wave contributes to weakening of the Azores High and, hence, to the negative NAO phase. As global warming scenarios project an increase in the frequency of CP El Niño events, the distinctive nature of this mechanism implies that the probability of cold European winters may increase as well in future decades.
Key Points
Central Pacific and east Pacific El Ninos impact differently on European winters
The mechanisms for NAO‐ENSO teleconnection differ for the two El Nino types
The subtropical jet wave guide is activated only during central Pacific El Ninos
Many Holocene hydroclimate records show rainfall changes that vary with local orbital insolation. However, some tropical regions display rainfall evolution that differs from gradual precessional ...pacing, suggesting that direct rainfall forcing effects were predominantly driven by sea-surface temperature thresholds or inter-ocean temperature gradients. Here we present a 12,000 yr continuous U/Th-dated precipitation record from a Guatemalan speleothem showing that Central American rainfall increased within a 2000 yr period from a persistently dry state to an active convective regime at 9000 yr BP and has remained strong thereafter. Our data suggest that the Holocene evolution of Central American rainfall was driven by exceeding a temperature threshold in the nearby tropical oceans. The sensitivity of this region to slow changes in radiative forcing is thus strongly mediated by internal dynamics acting on much faster time scales.
A speleothem collected from Palco Cave (Puerto Rico) spans the 8.2 ka event, a time interval associated with fluctuations of Atlantic Ocean circulation and possible drying in the Caribbean region. ...While stalagmite δ18O, δ13C, and Mg/Ca data do not show a sustained change in mean state over the 8.2 ka event, the proxies provide robust evidence for three abrupt fluctuations toward drier conditions in rapid succession, each lasting less than two decades, occurring at 8.20, 8.14, and 8.02 ka BP. A cave monitoring program at Palco Cave supports the interpretation of the speleothem proxy records. Because changes in the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) are directly coupled to sea-surface temperature variations in the North Atlantic, we hypothesize that cold events in the North Atlantic temporarily limited the northward migration of the ITCZ and tropical rain belt in boreal summer during these abrupt drying periods. The speleothem record suggests that the 8.2 ka event was associated with rapid rainfall fluctuations in the northern Caribbean followed by a comparably warm and wet phase after the 8.2 ka event. This enhanced variability during the transitional period of the deglaciation appears to be linked to a fast coupling between interacting oceanic and atmospheric processes. This involves, in particular, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in modulating interhemispheric heat transport.
Stratospheric volcanic aerosol can have major impacts on global climate. Despite a consensus among studies on an El Niño‐like response in the first or second post‐eruption year, the mechanisms that ...trigger a change in the state of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) following volcanic eruptions are still debated. Here, we shed light on the processes that govern the ENSO response to tropical volcanic eruptions through a series of sensitivity experiments with an Earth System Model where a uniform stratospheric volcanic aerosol loading is imposed over different parts of the tropics. Three tropical mechanisms are tested: the “ocean dynamical thermostat” (ODT); the cooling of the Maritime Continent; and the cooling of tropical northern Africa (NAFR). We find that the NAFR mechanism plays the largest role, while the ODT mechanism is absent in our simulations as La Niña‐like rather than El‐Niño‐like conditions develop following a uniform radiative forcing over the equatorial Pacific.
Plain Language Summary
Volcanic eruptions emit large quantity of sulfate aerosol up to the stratosphere. Such aerosol can alter global climate by interacting with solar radiation and in turn modifying atmospheric and ocean circulation. In particular, volcanic aerosol can alter the state of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the major mode of tropical climate variability. However, the mechanisms that trigger a change in the ENSO state following volcanic eruptions are still debated. In this study, we use an Earth System Model to revisit the main mechanisms that have been proposed to alter ENSO, causing positive temperature anomalies over the equatorial Pacific (EqPAC) Ocean. We tested three mechanisms: the “ocean dynamical thermostat” (ODT); the cooling of the Maritime Continent; and the cooling of tropical northern Africa (NAFR). Our experiments show that the NAFR mechanism plays the largest role, while the ODT mechanism is absent in our simulations as cold rather than warm develop over the EqPAC Ocean following the applied volcanic forcing.
Key Points
Radiative cooling by volcanic aerosol over the tropical northern Africa triggers El Niño‐like conditions via atmospheric circulation changes
The “ocean thermostat mechanism” is absent in our simulations when a uniform aerosol forcing is applied over the equatorial Pacific (EqPAC)
The Maritime Continent cooling mechanism is not at play when the aerosol forcing extends over the entire EqPAC
On global and hemispheric scales, sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies are assumed to be good surrogates for near-surface marine air temperature (MAT) anomalies. In fact, global gridded ...temperature datasets commonly blend SST and near-surface air temperature anomalies to overcome the lack of geographically homogeneous and reliable MAT observations. Here, we show that SST and MAT anomalies differ regarding crucial statistical properties such as multiannual trends and probabilistic distributions of daily and monthly averages. We provide evidence of the lack of interchangeability from an array of moored buoys in the tropical Pacific Ocean. We identify statistically significant discrepancies between SST and MAT anomalies for single as well as groups of such buoys. Thus, caution is required when characterizing and interpreting MAT variability through SST observations, especially at shorter than decadal timescale.
Small‐to‐moderate volcanic eruptions can lead to significant surface cooling when they occur clustered, as observed in recent decades. In this study, based on new high‐resolution ice‐core data from ...Greenland, we produce a new volcanic forcing data set that includes several small‐to‐moderate eruptions not included in prior reconstructions and investigate their climate impacts of the early 19th century through ensemble simulations with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. We find that clustered small‐to‐moderate eruptions produce significant additional global surface cooling (∼0.07 K) during the period 1812–1820, superposing with the cooling by large eruptions in 1809 (unidentified location) and 1815 (Tambora). This additional cooling helps explain the reconstructed long‐lasting cooling after the large eruptions, but simulated regional impacts cannot be confirmed with reconstructions due to a low signal‐to‐noise ratio. This study highlights the importance of small‐to‐moderate eruptions for climate simulations as their impacts can be comparable with that of solar irradiance changes.
Plain Language Summary
Volcanic eruptions can influence global climate through the emission of sulfuric acids shielding Earth from incoming solar radiation. Previous volcanic reconstructions based on ice‐cores from the polar regions, however, only considered very strong volcanic eruptions. In this study, based on new ice‐core measurements from Greenland, we reconstruct for the first time volcanic sulfur emissions from small to medium‐sized eruptions and investigate their impact on climate in the early 19th century through experiments with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM1.2‐LR). We find that clustering of small to medium‐sized eruptions can cause significant global surface cooling (∼0.07 K), which during the 1812–1820 period amplified the cooling caused by the two known large eruptions of the period (1809 unidentified and 1815 Tambora). This additional surface cooling from small eruptions helps explain the long‐lasting cooling after the two strong eruptions generally found in the reconstruction, but the simulated regional impacts cannot be fully confirmed with reconstructions that are too noisy. This study highlights the importance of including small‐to‐moderate eruptions for climate model simulations as their impacts are comparable with that of solar irradiance forcing.
Key Points
A new ice‐core based reconstruction of volcanic sulfate in the atmosphere (1733–1895) includes small‐to‐moderate eruptions
Small‐to‐moderate eruptions can induce significant surface cooling and help explain the long‐lasting cooling in the early 19th century
Regional cooling from small‐to‐moderate eruptions may be influenced by the circulation changes from the 1815 Tambora for over 10 years
We investigate European summer (July–August) precipitation variability and its global teleconnections using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (1950–2010) and a historical Coupled Model Intercomparison ...Project climate simulation (1901–2005) carried out using the ECHAM6/MPIOM climate model. A wavelike pattern is found in the upper tropospheric levels (200 hPa) similar to the summer circumglobal wave train (CGT) extending from the North Pacific to the Eurasian region. The positive phase of the CGT is associated with upper level anomalous low (high) pressure over western (eastern) Europe. It is further associated with a dipole-like precipitation pattern over Europe entailing significantly enhanced (reduced) precipitation over the western (eastern) region. The anomalous circulation features and associated summer precipitation pattern over Europe inverts for the negative CGT phase. Accordingly, the global teleconnection pattern of a precipitation index summarizing summer precipitation over Western Europe entails an upper level signature which consists of a CGT-like wave pattern extending from the North Pacific to Eurasia. The imprint of the CGT on European summer precipitation is distinct from that of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation, despite the two modes of variability bear strong similarities in their upper level atmospheric pattern over Western Europe. The analysis of simulated CGT features and of its climatic implications for the European region substantiates the existence of the CGT-European summer precipitation connection. The summer CGT in the mid-latitude therefore adds to the list of the modes of large-scale atmospheric variability significantly influencing European summer precipitation variability.
Abstract
We assess the radiative heating error affecting marine air temperature (MAT) measurements in the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean array. The error in historical observations is found to be ...ubiquitous across the array, spatially variable and approximately stationary in time. The error induces spurious warming during daytime hours, but does not affect night-time temperatures. The range encompassing the real, unknown daily- and monthly-mean values is determined using daytime and night-time mean temperatures as upper and lower limits. The uncertainty in MAT is less than or equal to 0.5 °C and 0.2 °C for 95% of daily and monthly estimates, respectively. Uncertainties impact surface turbulent heat flux estimates, with potentially significant influences on the quantification of coupled ocean-atmosphere processes.
Volcanic eruptions trigger ENSO response through shifts in the ITCZ and extratropical-to-tropical teleconnections.
The mechanisms through which volcanic eruptions affect the El Niño–Southern ...Oscillation (ENSO) state are still controversial. Previous studies have invoked direct radiative forcing, an ocean dynamical thermostat (ODT) mechanism, and shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), among others, to explain the ENSO response to tropical eruptions. Here, these mechanisms are tested using ensemble simulations with an Earth system model in which volcanic aerosols from a Tambora-like eruption are confined either in the Northern or the Southern Hemisphere. We show that the primary drivers of the ENSO response are the shifts of the ITCZ together with extratropical circulation changes, which affect the tropics; the ODT mechanism does not operate in our simulations. Our study highlights the importance of initial conditions in the ENSO response to tropical volcanic eruptions and provides explanations for the predominance of posteruption El Niño events and for the occasional posteruption La Niña in observations and reconstructions.
Under the emerging features of interannual-to-decadal ocean variability, the periodical reversals of the North Ionian Gyre (NIG), driven mostly by the mechanism named Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal ...Oscillating System (BiOS), are known as impacting on marine physics and biogeochemistry and potentially influencing short-term regional climate predictability in the Eastern Mediterranean. Whilst it has been suggested that local wind forcing cannot explain such variability, aspects of the alternative hypothesis indicating that NIG reversals mainly arises from an internal ocean feedback mechanism alone remain largely debated. Here we demonstrate, using the results of physical experiments, performed in the world's largest rotating tank and numerical simulations, that the main observed feature of BiOS, i.e., the switch of polarity of the near-surface circulation in the NIG, can be induced by a mere injection of dense water on a sloping bottom. Hence, BiOS is a truly oceanic mode of variability and abrupt polarity changes in circulation can arise solely from extreme dense water formation events.
PDF
