Onchocerciasis causes a considerable disease burden in Africa, mainly through skin and eye disease. Since 1995, the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has coordinated annual mass ...treatment with ivermectin in 16 countries. In this study, we estimate the health impact of APOC and the associated costs from a program perspective up to 2010 and provide expected trends up to 2015.
With data on pre-control prevalence of infection and population coverage of mass treatment, we simulated trends in infection, blindness, visual impairment, and severe itch using the micro-simulation model ONCHOSIM, and estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to onchocerciasis. We assessed financial costs for APOC, beneficiary governments, and non-governmental development organizations, excluding cost of donated drugs. We estimated that between 1995 and 2010, mass treatment with ivermectin averted 8.2 million DALYs due to onchocerciasis in APOC areas, at a nominal cost of about US$257 million. We expect that APOC will avert another 9.2 million DALYs between 2011 and 2015, at a nominal cost of US$221 million.
Our simulations suggest that APOC has had a remarkable impact on population health in Africa between 1995 and 2010. This health impact is predicted to double during the subsequent five years of the program, through to 2015. APOC is a highly cost-effective public health program. Given the anticipated elimination of onchocerciasis from some APOC areas, we expect even more health gains and a more favorable cost-effectiveness of mass treatment with ivermectin in the near future.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
The initial endemicity (pre-control prevalence) of onchocerciasis has been shown to be an important determinant of the feasibility of elimination by mass ivermectin distribution. We present the first ...geostatistical map of microfilarial prevalence in the former Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP) before commencement of antivectorial and antiparasitic interventions.
Pre-control microfilarial prevalence data from 737 villages across the 11 constituent countries in the OCP epidemiological database were used as ground-truth data. These 737 data points, plus a set of statistically selected environmental covariates, were used in a Bayesian model-based geostatistical (B-MBG) approach to generate a continuous surface (at pixel resolution of 5 km x 5km) of microfilarial prevalence in West Africa prior to the commencement of the OCP. Uncertainty in model predictions was measured using a suite of validation statistics, performed on bootstrap samples of held-out validation data. The mean Pearson's correlation between observed and estimated prevalence at validation locations was 0.693; the mean prediction error (average difference between observed and estimated values) was 0.77%, and the mean absolute prediction error (average magnitude of difference between observed and estimated values) was 12.2%. Within OCP boundaries, 17.8 million people were deemed to have been at risk, 7.55 million to have been infected, and mean microfilarial prevalence to have been 45% (range: 2-90%) in 1975.
This is the first map of initial onchocerciasis prevalence in West Africa using B-MBG. Important environmental predictors of infection prevalence were identified and used in a model out-performing those without spatial random effects or environmental covariates. Results may be compared with recent epidemiological mapping efforts to find areas of persisting transmission. These methods may be extended to areas where data are sparse, and may be used to help inform the feasibility of elimination with current and novel tools.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
BACKGROUND: The original aim of the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) was to control onchocerciasis as a public health problem in 20 African countries. In order to identify all high ...risk areas where ivermectin treatment was needed to achieve control, APOC used Rapid Epidemiological Mapping of Onchocerciasis (REMO). REMO involved spatial sampling of villages to be surveyed, and examination of 30 to 50 adults per village for palpable onchocercal nodules. REMO has now been virtually completed and we report the results in two articles. A companion article reports the delineation of high risk areas based on expert analysis. The present article reports the results of a geostatistical analysis of the REMO data to map endemicity levels and estimate the number infected. METHODS: A model-based geostatistical analysis of the REMO data was undertaken to generate high-resolution maps of the predicted prevalence of nodules and of the probability that the true nodule prevalence exceeds the high risk threshold of 20%. The number infected was estimated by converting nodule prevalence to microfilaria prevalence, and multiplying the predicted prevalence for each location with local data on population density. The geostatistical analysis included the nodule palpation data for 14,473 surveyed villages. RESULTS: The generated map of onchocerciasis endemicity levels, as reflected in the prevalence of nodules, is a significant advance with many new endemic areas identified. The prevalence of nodules was > 20% over an area of 2.5 million km²with an estimated population of 62 million people. The results were consistent with the delineation of high risk areas of the expert analysis except for borderline areas where the prevalence fluctuated around 20%. It is estimated that 36 million people would have been infected in the APOC countries by 2011 if there had been no ivermectin treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The map of onchocerciasis endemicity levels has proven very valuable for onchocerciasis control in the APOC countries. Following the recent shift to onchocerciasis elimination, the map continues to play an important role in planning treatment, evaluating impact and predicting treatment end dates in relation to local endemicity levels.
Since its initiation in 1995, the African Program for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has had a substantial impact on the prevalence and burden of onchocerciasis through annual ivermectin mass ...treatment. Ivermectin is a broad-spectrum anti-parasitic agent that also has an impact on other co-endemic parasitic infections. In this study, we roughly assessed the additional impact of APOC activities on the burden of the most important off-target infections: soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH; ascariasis, trichuriasis, hookworm, and strongyloidiasis), lymphatic filariasis (LF), and scabies. Based on a literature review, we formulated assumptions about the impact of ivermectin treatment on the disease burden of these off-target infections. Using data on the number of ivermectin treatments in APOC regions and the latest estimates of the burden of disease, we then calculated the impact of APOC activities on off-target infections in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. We conservatively estimated that between 1995 and 2010, annual ivermectin mass treatment has cumulatively averted about 500 thousand DALYs from co-endemic STH infections, LF, and scabies. This impact comprised approximately an additional 5.5% relative to the total burden averted from onchocerciasis (8.9 million DALYs) and indicates that the overall cost-effectiveness of APOC is even higher than previously reported.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
...of this population-based approach, the disability weights for visual impairment, blindness, and troublesome itch have changed considerably and should better reflect our ideas and beliefs as a ...society of what constitutes health. According to our updated estimates, skin disease is now the most important contributor to the burden of onchocerciasis, rather than eye disease. ...the true disease burden of onchocercal skin disease (and the burden averted by APOC) is still larger than we estimate here, as our updated estimates do not include disfiguring skin disease, or other sequelae potentially associated with onchocerciasis, such as epilepsy 14 and head-nodding syndrome 15.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Mapping is a prerequisite for effective implementation of interventions against neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Before the accelerated World Health Organization (WHO)/Regional Office for Africa ...(AFRO) NTD Mapping Project was initiated in 2014, mapping efforts in many countries were frequently carried out in an ad hoc and nonstandardized fashion. In 2013, there were at least 2,200 different districts (of the 4,851 districts in the WHO African region) that still required mapping, and in many of these districts, more than one disease needed to be mapped. During its 3-year duration from January 2014 through the end of 2016, the project carried out mapping surveys for one or more NTDs in at least 2,500 districts in 37 African countries. At the end of 2016, most (90%) of the 4,851 districts had completed the WHO-required mapping surveys for the five targeted Preventive Chemotherapy (PC)-NTDs, and the impact of this accelerated WHO/AFRO NTD Mapping Project proved to be much greater than just the detailed mapping results themselves. Indeed, the AFRO Mapping Project dramatically energized and empowered national NTD programs, attracted donor support for expanding these programs, and developed both a robust NTD mapping database and data portal. By clarifying the prevalence and burden of NTDs, the project provided not only the metrics and technical framework for guiding and tracking program implementation and success but also the research opportunities for developing improved diagnostic and epidemiologic sampling tools for all 5 PC-NTDs-lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiasis, and trachoma.
The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) was created to control onchocerciasis as a public health problem in 20 African countries. Its main strategy is community directed treatment ...with ivermectin. In order to identify all high risk areas where ivermectin treatment was needed, APOC used Rapid Epidemiological Mapping of Onchocerciasis (REMO). REMO has now been virtually completed and we report the results in two articles. The present article reports the mapping of high risk areas where onchocerciasis was a public health problem. The companion article reports the results of a geostatistical analysis of the REMO data to map endemicity levels and estimate the number infected.
REMO consists of three stages: exclusion of areas that are unsuitable for the vector, selection of sample villages to be surveyed in each river basin, and examination of 30 to 50 adults for the presence of palpable onchocercal nodules in each selected village. The survey results and other relevant information were processed in a geographical information system. A panel of experts interpreted the data taking the river-based sampling into account and delineated high risk areas where the prevalence of nodules is greater than 20%.
Unsuitable areas were identified in eight countries. In the remaining areas surveys were done in a total of 14,473 sample villages in which more than half a million people were examined. High-risk areas were identified in 18 APOC countries, ranging from small isolated foci to a vast contiguous endemic area of 2 million km2 running across seven countries. In five countries the high risk area covered more than 48% of the total surface area, and 31% to 48% of the population. It is estimated that 86 million people live in high risk areas in the APOC countries.
The REMO maps have played a significant role in onchocerciasis control in the 20 APOC countries. All high-risk areas where onchocerciasis used to be a serious public health problem have been clearly delineated. This led to the creation of community-directed treatment projects that by 2012 were providing annual ivermectin treatment to over 80 million people.
The neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) affect hundreds of millions of people, predominantly in rural, often difficult-to-access areas, poorly served by national health services. Here, we review the ...contributions of 4.8 million community-directed distributors (CDDs) of medicines over 2 decades in 146,000 communities in 27 sub-Saharan African countries to control or eliminate onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis (LF). We examine their role in the control of other NTDs, malaria, HIV/AIDS interventions, immunisation campaigns, and support to overstretched health service personnel. We are of the opinion that CDDs as community selected, trained, and experienced "foot soldiers," some of whom were involved in the Ebola outbreak responses at the community level in Liberia, if retrained, can assist community leaders and support health workers (HWs) in the ongoing Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis. The review highlights the improved treatment coverage where there are women CDDs, the benefits and lessons from the work of CDDs, their long-term engagement, and the challenges they face in healthcare delivery. It underscores the value of utilising the CDD model for strong community engagement and recommends the model, with some review, to hasten the achievement of the NTD 2030 goal and assist the health system cope with evolving epidemics and other challenges. We propose that, based on the unprecedented progress made in the control of NTDs directly linked to community engagement and contributions of CDDs "foot soldiers," they deserve regional and global recognition. We also suggest that the World Health Organization (WHO) and other international stakeholders promote policy and guidance for countries to adapt this model for the elimination of NTDs and to strengthen national health services. This will enhance the accomplishment of some Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 in sub-Saharan Africa.
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DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Great strides have been made toward onchocerciasis elimination by mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. Focusing on MDA-eligible areas, we investigated where the elimination goal can be ...achieved by 2025 by continuation of current practice (annual MDA with ivermectin) and where intensification or additional vector control is required. We did not consider areas hypoendemic for onchocerciasis with loiasis coendemicity where MDA is contraindicated.
We used 2 previously published mathematical models, ONCHOSIM and EPIONCHO, to simulate future trends in microfilarial prevalence for 80 different settings (defined by precontrol endemicity and past MDA frequency and coverage) under different future treatment scenarios (annual, biannual, or quarterly MDA with different treatment coverage through 2025, with or without vector control strategies), assessing for each strategy whether it eventually leads to elimination.
Areas with 40%-50% precontrol microfilarial prevalence and ≥10 years of annual MDA may achieve elimination with a further 7 years of annual MDA, if not achieved already, according to both models. For most areas with 70%-80% precontrol prevalence, ONCHOSIM predicts that either annual or biannual MDA is sufficient to achieve elimination by 2025, whereas EPIONCHO predicts that elimination will not be achieved even with complementary vector control.
Whether elimination will be reached by 2025 depends on precontrol endemicity, control history, and strategies chosen from now until 2025. Biannual or quarterly MDA will accelerate progress toward elimination but cannot guarantee it by 2025 in high-endemicity areas. Long-term concomitant MDA and vector control for high-endemicity areas might be useful.
Abstract
Background
Onchocerciasis elimination through mass drug administration (MDA) is hampered by coendemicity of Loa loa, as people with high L. loa microfilariae (mf) density can develop serious ...adverse events (SAEs) after ivermectin treatment. We assessed the geographical overlap of onchocerciasis and loiasis prevalence and estimated the number of coinfected individuals at risk of post-ivermectin SAEs in West and Central Africa from 1995 to 2025.
Methods
Focusing on regions with suspected loiasis transmission in 14 countries, we overlaid precontrol maps of loiasis and onchocerciasis prevalence to calculate precontrol prevalence of coinfection by 5 km2 × 5 km2 pixel, distinguishing different categories of L. loa mf intensity. Using statistical and mathematical models, we predicted prevalence of both infections and coinfection for 2015 and 2025, accounting for the impact of MDA with ivermectin.
Results
The number of people infected with onchocerciasis was predicted to decline from almost 19 million in 1995 to 4 million in 2025. Of these, 137 000 people were estimated to also have L. loa hypermicrofilaremia (≥20 000 L. loa mf/mL) in 1995, declining to 31 000 in 2025. In 2025, 92.8% of coinfected cases with loiasis hypermicrofilaremia are predicted to live in hypoendemic areas currently not targeted for MDA.
Conclusions
Loiasis coinfection is a major concern for onchocerciasis elimination in Africa. We predict that under current strategies, at least 31 000 coinfected people still require treatment for onchocerciasis in 2025 while being at risk of SAEs, justifying continued efforts in research and development for safer drugs and control strategies.
Onchocerciasis elimination using
mass drug administration with ivermectin is jeopardized in areas with Loa loa coendemicity. We estimate the number of people at risk of serious adverse events due to ivermectin in onchocerciasis– loiasis coendemic areas in Africa between 1995 and 2025.
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