Agriculture in the Global Economy Alston, Julian M.; Pardey, Philip G.
The Journal of economic perspectives,
01/2014, Letnik:
28, Številka:
1
Journal Article
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The past 50–100 years have witnessed dramatic changes in agricultural production and productivity, driven to a great extent by public and private investments in agricultural research, with profound ...implications especially for the world's poor. In this article, we first discuss how the high-income countries like the United States represent a declining share of global agricultural output while middle-income countries like China, India, Brazil, and Indonesia represent a rising share. We then look at the differing patterns of agricultural inputs across countries and the divergent productivity paths taken by their agricultural sectors. Next we examine productivity more closely and the evidence that the global rate of agricultural productivity growth is declining—with potentially serious prospects for the price and availability of food for the poorest people in the world. Finally we consider patterns of agricultural research and development efforts.
Abstract
Should agriculture or non-agriculture be a priority for development? We revisit this question using a two-sector, three-factor dynamic model with an asymptotic balanced growth path. The ...model allows a forward-looking assessment of development priorities based on lifetime welfare. A comparison of sector-specific productivity gains indicates that gains in non-agriculture are often more valuable, even when agriculture is initially the largest sector in terms of employment. We discuss the robustness of this result and how international capital mobility, capital intensity, demographics, the discount rate, and taxes on profits influence investment and structural transformation.
Viewpoint: Boosting Recessions Ng, Serena
The Canadian journal of economics,
February/février 2014, Letnik:
47, Številka:
1
Journal Article
Recenzirano
This paper explores the effectiveness of boosting, often regarded as the state of the art classification tool, in giving warning signals of recessions 3,6, and 12 months ahead. Boosting is used to ...screen as many as 1,500 potentially relevant predictors consisting of 132 real and financial time series and their lags. Estimation over the full sample 1961:1-2011:12 finds that there are fewer than 10 important predictors and the identity of these variables changes with the forecast horizon. There is a distinct difference in the size and composition of the relevant predictor set before and after mid-1980. Rolling window estimation reveals that the importance of the term and default spreads are recession specific. The Aaa spread is the most robust predictor of recessions three and 6 months ahead, while the risky bond and 5-year spreads are important for 12 months ahead predictions. Certain employment variables have predictive power for the two most recent recessions when the interest rate spreads were uninformative. Warning signals for the post-1990 recessions have been sporadic and easy to miss. The results underscore the challenge that changing characteristics of business cycles pose for predicting recessions. Ce texte explore l'efficacité de la méthode dite du 'boosting', qu'on considère souvent comme un instrument de classification qui est à la fine pointe de l'art de prévoir les récessions 3, 6 et 12 mois à l'avance. Cette méthode est utilisée pour passer au crible quelques 1500 prédicteurs potentiellement pertinents construits à partir de 132 séries chronologiques de variables réelles et financières plus ou moins décalées. Des estimations de l'échantillon complet pour la période du début de 1961 à la fin de 2011 révèlent qu'aussi peu que dix prédicteurs sont importants, et que l'identité de ces variables change selon l'horizon de prévision considéré. Il y a aussi une différence marquée dans la taille et la composition de cet ensemble de prédicteurs avant et après le milieu des années 1980. Il appert que l'importance des écarts de crédit (écarts des taux d'intérêt et des risques de défaut de paiement) est spécifique à la récession particulière. L'écart Aaa est le prédicteur le plus robuste des récessions dans trois et six mois, alors que la debenture risquée et l'écart des taux d'intérêt pour la fenêtre de 5 ans sont les prédicteurs importants pour un horizon temporel de 12 mois. Certaines variables reliées à l'emploi ont eu un certain pouvoir de prédiction pour les deux dernières récessions quand les écarts de taux d'intérêt n'ont pas été éclairants. Les signaux des clignotants pour les récessions d'après 1990 ont été sporadiques et faciles à manquer. Les résultats soulignent le défi que posent à ceux qui font des prévisions de récessions les caractéristiques changeantes des cycles économiques.
This paper examines the relationship between income and environmental quality using environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. The hypothesised link is tested using time‐series analysis of 22 ...countries over the period 1961–2011. The degree of environmental impacts of economic activity is measured using ecological footprint (EF) per capita as explanatory variable, while real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and its quadratic and cubic forms are used as predictor variables in these countries. First, the EKC hypothesis is tested through examining the relationship between EF and GDP using linear, quadratic and cubic functions. Further, the long‐run relationship between EF and GDP is investigated using a vector error correction model. It was found that there is a cointegrated relationship between the variables in almost all countries, which was statistically significant, and EKC supported in 10 countries. Additionally, almost all error correction terms are correct in sign and are significant, which implies that some percentage of disequilibria in EF in the previous year adjusts back to the long‐run equilibrium in the current year. Therefore, an efficient trade‐off between environmental protection and economic benefits should be taken, and EF should be reduced through changing consumption patterns, improving the efficiency of use of resources and cleaner technology choices.
In recent decades U.S. households have experienced residential house prices moving persistently, that is, returns being positively serially correlated. We set up a realistically calibrated life cycle ...model with slow-moving time variation in expected housing returns, showing that not only age, labor income, and pre-existing housing wealth but also the state of the housing market significantly affect household decisions. Consistently with the data, the model predicts that in good states of housing market cycles (1) homeownership rates increase, (2) households buying homes invest a larger share of their net worth in their home, and (3) these households lever up more.
While the competitiveness of the Canadian agri‐food sector attracted significant research attention since the mid 1980s, no study has measured competitiveness using longitudinal data and determined ...empirically the drivers of competitiveness. This article contributes to the competitiveness literature by measuring the international competitiveness of wheat, beef, and pork sectors in Canada using data from 1961 to 2011 and by determining the drivers of competitiveness. Our results demonstrate that Canada enjoys competitiveness in the wheat sector but not in the beef or pork sectors. Empirical results also suggest that the competitiveness of the Canadian wheat sector can be enhanced if the cost seed in Canada relative to that in the United States is lower. Similarly, if the relative labor cost of meat processing is lower, the competitiveness of both beef and pork sectors in Canada will be enhanced. Exchange rates are important drivers of international competitiveness of beef and pork sectors in Canada. The decoupled farm policies in Canada do not have a significant impact on the competitiveness of wheat and pork sectors in Canada. While our empirical results seem to indicate that major agri‐food policies in Canada may not have delivered the expected benefits, the NRCA index did not allow us to separate the contributions of market and nonmarket failures to competitive performance of Canadian agriculture.Bien que la compétitivité du secteur agroalimentaire canadien ait suscité un vif intérêt de la part des chercheurs depuis le milieu des années 1980, aucune étude ne l'a évaluée à l'aide de données longitudinales et aucune n'en a déterminé de manière empirique les moteurs. Le présent article contribue à la littérature sur la compétitivité en ce sens qu'il présente une évaluation de la compétitivité des secteurs du blé, du bœuf et du porc canadiens sur la scène internationale effectuée à l'aide de données couvrant la période 1961–2011 et en détermine les moteurs. Selon les résultats de notre étude, le Canada jouit d'une compétitivité dans le secteur du blé uniquement. Les résultats empiriques autorisent aussi à penser qu'il serait possible d'accroître la compétitivité du secteur du blé canadien si le coût des semences au Canada était plus faible que celui aux États‐Unis. De façon similaire, une baisse du coût relatif de la main‐d’œuvre dans les usines de transformation de la viande contribuerait à accroître la compétitivité des secteurs du bœuf et du porc canadiens. Les taux de change sont des moteurs importants de la compétitivité des secteurs du bœuf et du porc canadiens sur la scène internationale. Au Canada, les politiques agricoles découplées n'ont pas de répercussions significatives sur la compétitivité des secteurs du blé et du porc canadiens. Bien que les résultats empiriques de notre étude indiquent que les principales politiques agroalimentaires au Canada n'ont peut‐être pas procuré les avantages escomptés, l'indice de l'avantage comparatif révélé normalisé (ACRN) n'a pas permis de distinguer les échecs du marché et ceux de la réglementation quant à la performance de la compétitivité du secteur canadien de l'agriculture.
Diewert and Yu estimate that multifactor productivity grew at a 1.0 per cent average annual rate in the Canadian business sector from 1961 to 2011, compared to Statistics Canada's Canadian ...Productivity Program estimate of 0.3 per cent. The major reason for this difference is that Diewert and Yu find capital services grew at 3.0 per cent per year, compared to Statistics Canada's estimate of 4.8 per cent. This article identifies and discusses the three reasons for this discrepancy. First, while the Canadian Productivity Program aggregates capital services across industries to derive the capital input measure at the level of the business sector, Diewert and Yu use a top-down approach and directly compute capital and labour input series at the business sector level. Second, there are differences in the way the price of capital services is computed. Third, the Canadian Productivity Program bases its capital measures on a more detailed list of assets than Diewert and Yu. Statistics Canada estimates follow international guidelines and practices adopted by other statistical agencies in order to make estimates internationally comparable.
Reviving social democracy Laycock, David; Erickson, Lynda
Reviving social democracy,
2015, 2014
eBook
Focused on the NDP's stunning 2011 breakthrough as Canada's Official Opposition, this volume traces the party's history from its emergence in the 1960s through moments of modernization and ...ideological refinement to its current presence in Canada.
This article shows that the large difference of 0.8 per cent percentage points per year between top-down estimates of capital input growth obtained by Diewert and Yu and the bottom-up estimates ...produced by Statistics Canada for the Canadian business sector over the 1961-2011 period can be interpreted as an reallocation effect due either to inefficiencies in production and or a measurement issue. It is also noted that although user costs of capital are officially recognized in the System of National Accounts, there is no single recommendation on the details of implementation and that moving towards such a recommendation is an objective worth pursuing.
The paper provides an interpretive guide to the Special Issue commemorating the 50th anniversary of the Western Regional Science Association. The Special Issue contains 13 papers arranged into four ...groups (1) Perspectives on the Western Regional Science Association, (2) Assessment with a view to the future (3) Current topics—regional issues, and (4) Current topics—urban issues.
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