Waves of concurrent, cross‐country political turmoil suggest that global economic forces can serve as a catalyst for intrastate conflict. This article analyses the role of uncertainty shocks to ...global food commodity prices in generating political conflict in developing countries. I build a simple model to show that shocks to the uncertainty of commodity export prices can elicit civil conflict in a small open economy. Econometric evidence from a cross‐country panel data set documenting intrastate civil conflict and global food commodity prices from 1966–90 lends support to this hypothesis. The results suggest that policies which reduce the uncertainty of export prices faced by food commodity exporters can facilitate political stability in conflict‐vulnerable countries.
. This paper reassesses economic growth in five South‐East Asian countries utilizing a non‐parametric productivity index and parametric techniques to trace the ultimate source/s of growth. Our ...results show that there is no single explanation for the growth performance of the countries in our sample. The results, particularly with reference to the role of embodied technology are comforting in terms of policy implications for countries such as Singapore, where, given the capital output ratios, there are lower returns to future capital accumulation. The possibility of capital being embodied through technological change makes future prospects much brighter for such a country.
There is now a vast literature on testing purchasing power parity (PPP). Any test is conditional on a particular econometric specification which embodies a set of auxiliary assumptions. This paper ...reviews the issues involved in econometric specification and estimation in the time series and panel models used to test PPP. We start from a general model and then systematically examine the implicit restrictions that are imposed to obtain the standard procedures and discuss the implications of these procedures for estimation and inference. The issues are illustrated on data for a panel of 31 developing countries, 1966–90.
This paper utilizes cointegration and error-correction representation methodology in estimating the long-run behavioral relationship between exports and economic growth in the ASEAN countries.
A modern adaptation of the Ricardian model is used, which incorporates monopolistic competition and multiple factors to derive a MacDougall-type relation between a country's international ...competitiveness at the industry level and its productivity performance. This relation is implemented empirically for Canada and the United States, using panel data for twenty-five years and forty industries. A key finding is that the Canadian-U.S. productivity ratio is an important determinant of relative shares of Canadian firms in both Canadian and U.S. markets. Trade liberalization between Canada and the United States also plays a significant role in influencing market shares. JEL Classification: F11, F12
The role public sector investment plays in the growth of aggregate output and productivity in UK manufacturing is discussed, and an economic model that charts this growth is presented. Positive ...evidence can be found for the importance of the public capital stock in explaining manufacturing output.
This paper describes a simple method for using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) in the estimation of technical change, as well as efficiency and intensity in input use. It provides estimates of ...manufacturing production technology and identifies changes in the efficiency of input use in the UK since the mid-1960s. The analysis provides new insight regarding the relevance of public capital for UK manufacturing.
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