Expectations and Investment Gennaioli, Nicola; Ma, Yueran; Shleifer, Andrei
NBER macroeconomics annual,
01/2016, Letnik:
30, Številka:
1
Journal Article
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Using micro data from Duke University quarterly survey of Chief Financial
Officers, we show that corporate investment plans as well as actual investment
are well explained by CFOs’ expectations of ...earnings growth. The
information in expectations data is not subsumed by traditional variables, such
as Tobin’s Q or discount rates. We also show that errors in CFO
expectations of earnings growth are predictable from past earnings and other
data, pointing to extrapolative structure of expectations and suggesting that
expectations may not be rational. This evidence, like earlier findings in
finance, points to the usefulness of data on actual expectations for
understanding economic behavior.
What do test scores miss? Jackson, C. Kirabo
Journal of political economy,
10/2018, Letnik:
126, Številka:
5
Journal Article
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Teachers affect a variety of student outcomes through their influence on both cognitive and noncognitive skill. I proxy for students’ noncognitive skill using non–test score behaviors. These ...behaviors include absences, suspensions, course grades, and grade repetition in ninth grade. Teacher effects on test scores and those on behaviors are weakly correlated. Teacher effects on behaviors predict larger impacts on high school completion and other longer-run outcomes than their effects on test scores. Relative to using only test score measures, using effects on both test score and noncognitive measures more than doubles the variance of predictable teacher impacts on longer-run outcomes.
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Dostopno za:
BFBNIB, DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NMLJ, NUK, ODKLJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Social media has become a popular venue for individuals to share the results of their own analysis on financial securities. This paper investigates the extent to which investor opinions transmitted ...through social media predict future stock returns and earnings surprises. We conduct textual analysis of articles published on one of the most popular social media platforms for investors in the United States. We also consider the readers' perspective as inferred via commentaries written in response to these articles. We find that the views expressed in both articles and commentaries predict future stock returns and earnings surprises.
China initiated a major reform for capital taxation in 2004. Completed in 2009, it introduced permanent tax incentives for firms’ investment in fixed assets. We explore a unique firm-level dataset ...from years 2005–2012 and utilize a quasi-experimental design to test the impacts of the reform on firms’ investment and productivity. We find that, on average, the reform raised investment and productivity of the treated firms relative to the control firms by 38.4 percent and 8.9 percent, respectively. We also show that the positive effects tend to be strengthened for firms with financial constraints.
This study examines the impact on student achievement of implementing a bundle of best practices from high-performing charter schools into lowperforming, traditional public schools in Houston, Texas, ...using a school-level randomized field experiment and quasi-experimental comparisons. The five practices in the bundle are increased instructional time, more effective teachers and administrators, high-dosage tutoring, data-driven instruction, and a culture of high expectations. The findings show that injecting best practices from charter schools into traditional Houston public schools significantly increases student math achievement in treated elementary and secondary schools—by 0.15 to 0.18 standard deviations a year—and has little effect on reading achievement. Similar bundles of practices are found to significantly raise math achievement in analyses for public schools in a field experiment in Denver and program in Chicago.
Mismatch unemployment Sahin, Aysegül; Song, Joseph; Topa, Giorgio ...
The American economic review,
11/2014, Letnik:
104, Številka:
11
Journal Article
Recenzirano
We develop a framework where mismatch between vacancies and job seekers across sectors translates into higher unemployment by lowering the aggregate job-finding rate. We use this framework to measure ...the contribution of mismatch to the recent rise in US unemployment by exploiting two sources of cross-sectional data on vacancies, JOLTS and HWOL. Our calculations indicate that mismatch, across industries and three-digit occupations, explains at most one-third of the total observed increase in the unemployment rate. Occupational mismatch has become especially more severe for college graduates, and in the West of the United States. Geographical mismatch unemployment plays no apparent role.
Using an unexpected government regulation that restricted the ability of microfinance institutions to recover loans in one Indian state, I examine whether this intervention affected bank loan ...performance. The bank loan delinquency rate significantly increased as a result. In response, the ex post bank credit supply declined by more than half. For identification, I compare loans from branches located in regions subject to this intervention with loans from nearby branches of the same bank located in regions not subject to the intervention. I conclude that political interventions in credit markets could have significant spillover effects.
The economic consequences of large-scale government investments in education depend on general equilibrium effects in both the labor market and the education sector. I develop a general equilibrium ...model capturing the consequences of massive countrywide schooling initiatives. I provide unbiased estimates of the model’s elasticities, using a regression discontinuity derived from Indian government policy. The earnings returns to a year of education are 13.4%, and the general equilibrium labor market effects substantially depress returns, by 6.6 percentage points. These general equilibrium effects have distributional consequences across cohorts and skill groups, whereby unskilled workers are better off and skilled workers worse off.
This article reviews empirical capital structure research, concentrating on papers published since 2005. We begin by documenting three dimensions of capital structure variation: cross firm, cross ...industry, and within firm through time. We summarize how well the traditional trade-off and pecking order approaches explain these sources of variation and highlight their empirical shortcomings. We review recent research that attempts to address these shortcomings, much of which follows seven broad themes: (
a
) Important variables have been mismeasured in empirical tests, (
b
) the impact of leverage on nonfinancial stakeholders is important, (
c
) the supply side of capital affects corporate capital structure, (
d
) richer features of financial contracts have been underresearched, (
e
) value effects due to capital structure appear to be modest over wide ranges of leverage, (
f
) estimates of leverage adjustment speeds are biased, and (
g
) capital structure dynamics have not been adequately considered. Much progress has been made in addressing these issues, some of which has led to the study of an expanded range of capital structure topics, including debt maturity, loan and covenant characteristics, collateral effects, and alternative financing sources such as leasing and credit lines. We conclude by summarizing unanswered questions and areas for future research.
Using the continuous Demographic and Health Surveys (2005–2012) for Peru, we employ multinomial logistic regression estimates to assess risk for intimate partner violence (IPV). Using empowerment and ...gender frameworks for IPV, we find that women making more household decisions jointly with partners are less likely to experience physical violence. We also find that education is negatively associated with IPV, unless a woman's attainment exceeds her partner's. Although women earning more than their partners are more likely to experience violence, joint decision-makers have a lower risk of moderate physical violence even when their status exceeds that of a male partner. By adding measures for relationship dynamics, we highlight the ways decision-making within the household contributes to violence risk for women. While deviating from male-breadwinning norms can result in violence, risk factors are conditioned on the nature of cooperation within a partnership. Our findings suggest that shared power within the household reduces IPV risk.
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