Technology foresight has attracted increasing attention from government and academia as well as industry since the 1990s. However, the impact of technology foresight on national strategic ...decision-making varies from country to country. This paper aims to introduce the 'Technology Foresight towards 2020' exercise in China, which has been conducted by a research group in the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The paper consists of five parts: (1) introduction; (2) the framework for technology foresight towards 2020 in China; (3) the methodology including scenario building for identifying technology demands and the method for processing and analysing the data from a Delphi survey; (4) the major results of a Delphi survey in the following four research fields: Information technology, Biotechnology, Energy technology, Material science and technology; and (5) the impact of the research on decision-making concerning science and technology development in China.
President Obama's National Export Initiative (NEI) is targeted at doubling U.S. exports between 2010 and 2015. We apply USAGE to quantify what the NEI would need to do to foreign import‐demand curves ...and domestic export‐supply curves to achieve this target. USAGE is a dynamic economy‐wide model of the U.S. incorporating recession‐relevant factor market specifications including excess capacity and wage/labor‐demand elasticities that vary with the level of employment. In our central simulation, export‐promotion policies compatible with the President's target reduce the cost of the current recession from about 70 million 1‐year jobs for the period 2008–2020 to 45 million jobs. (JEL E17, C68, E62, E65, F16)
This paper models the global financial crisis as a combination of shocks to global housing markets and sharp increases in risk premia of firms, households, and international investors; and finds that ...the shocks observed in financial markets can generate in the in the G-Cubed model (an intertemporal global model) the severe economic contraction in global trade and production currently being experienced in 2009. Our investigation shows that the distinction between the production and trade of durable and non-durable goods plays a key role in explaining the much larger contraction in trade than GDP experienced by most economies; and that the future of the global economy depends critically on whether the shocks to risk are expected to be permanent or temporary.
Zusammenfassung
Das Risiko der Versorgung Deutschlands mit Energierohstoffen ist seit Ende der 70er Jahre signifikant gestiegen. Dies ist eines der zentralen Resultate dieses Beitrags, in dem mit ...Hilfe eines statistischen Indikators das Risiko der Versorgung eines Landes mit Energierohstoffen durch einen einzigen Wert ausgedrückt wird. Nach Italien weist Deutschland derzeit das höchste Versorgungsrisiko unter den G7-Staaten auf. Mitentscheidend dafür sind die in den vergangenen Jahrzehnten massiv gestiegenen Rohöl- und Erdgasimporte aus Russland. Bei tatsächlicher Umsetzung des Ausstiegs aus der Kernenergienutzung wird das Versorgungsrisiko aller Voraussicht nach selbst dann weiter steigen, wenn das politische Ziel erreicht würde, den Anteil der Erneuerbaren Energien an der Stromversorgung bis 2020 auf 30% zu steigern. Der Anstieg des Risikos wäre nicht zuletzt das Resultat einer weiter zunehmenden Abhängigkeit von Erdgasimporten aus Russland und der Umsetzung des beschlossenen Ausstiegs aus der Kernenergienutzung.
This study models for the energy consumption and pollution emission by civil vehicles in Beijing during the period from 2008 to 2020 associated with Leap software. The energy consumption and ...pollutant emission respectively in the context of current and future standards of fuel consumption and pollutant emission by civil vehicles are estimated with the assumption that the number of civil vehicles will increase from 3.14 million in 2008 to 7 million in 2020. The estimations show that the fuel consumption and pollutant emission by civil vehicles in 2020 will be 240% of that in 2008 under the new policies, and the emission of major air pollutant will increase significantly.
El Plan propone estrategias para un crecimiento sustentable; se refiere a la acción colectiva como forma de construir capital social; enuncia la visión y misión; adelanta los objetivos a 2020; ...describe los ejes de cara a la competitividad, el perfil de la cadena, la importancia y potencialidad sectorial, entre otros temas.
