COVID-2019 is a global threat, for this reason around the world, researches have been focused on topics such as to detect it, prevent it, cure it, and predict it. Different analyses propose models to ...predict the evolution of this epidemic. These analyses propose models for specific geographical areas, specific countries, or create a global model. The models give us the possibility to predict the virus behavior, it could be used to make future response plans. This work presents an analysis of COVID-19 spread that shows a different angle for the whole world, through 6 geographic regions (continents). We propose to create a relationship between the countries, which are in the same geographical area to predict the advance of the virus. The countries in the same geographic region have variables with similar values (quantifiable and non-quantifiable), which affect the spread of the virus. We propose an algorithm to performed and evaluated the ARIMA model for 145 countries, which are distributed into 6 regions. Then, we construct a model for these regions using the ARIMA parameters, the population per 1M people, the number of cases, and polynomial functions. The proposal is able to predict the COVID-19 cases with a RMSE average of 144.81. The main outcome of this paper is showing a relation between COVID-19 behavior and population in a region, these results show us the opportunity to create more models to predict the COVID-19 behavior using variables as humidity, climate, culture, among others.
The strict control measures and social lockdowns initiated to combat COVID-19 epidemic have had a notable impact on air pollutant concentrations. According to observation data obtained from the China ...National Environmental Monitoring Center, compared to levels in 2019, the average concentration of NO2 in early 2020 during COVID-19 epidemic has decreased by 53%, 50%, and 30% in Wuhan city, Hubei Province (Wuhan excluded), and China (Hubei excluded), respectively. Simultaneously, PM2.5 concentration has decreased by 35%, 29%, and 19% in Wuhan, Hubei (Wuhan excluded), and China (Hubei excluded), respectively. Less significant declines have also been found for SO2 and CO concentrations. We also analyzed the temporal variation and spatial distribution of air pollutant concentrations in China during COVID-19 epidemic. The decreases in PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations showed relatively consistent temporal variation and spatial distribution. These results support control of NOx to further reduce PM2.5 pollution in China. The concurrent decrease in NOx and PM2.5 concentrations resulted in an increase of O3 concentrations across China during COVID-19 epidemic, indicating that coordinated control of other pollutants is needed.
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Abstract— A pandemic Covid-19 is an epidemic that spreads over a big region, Crosse international borders, and often affects a lot of people. Only a few pandemics result in severe illness in a subset ...of people or in an entire community. The virus has mainly affects the elderly population. The virus, that causes Covid-19, has mainly been transmitted through droplet generate once an infected persons exhales, sneezes and coughs. These symptoms are too heavy; to hang in air, and quickly, fall on surface or floor. The COVID-19 pandemic model including the Vaccination Campaign is of natural phenomenon which can be represented as a system of differential equations for the first order; the mathematical models include a system of several second order nonlinear equations. We applied the Adomian decomposition methods to the mathematical models of Covid-19. The main advantage of this method is that it can be directly applied to all kinds of linear and nonlinear differential equations, homogeneous or nonhomogeneous, with constant or variable coefficients. The derivatives of all compartments of the coronavirus model are continuous at t ≥ 0. The solutions of the model are non-negativity. It indicates that the, infection, will be gradually the epidemic and disappear will, stop. If, R_0>1, the average of each affected individually. More than one person has infected, and the incidence of infection is in wrinkles. That means the epidemic, will not be end, while maintain the existence of the disease, the R_0=1 means that each infected patient results in an average infections.
The COVID-19 pandemic led to the adoption of severe measures to counteract the spread of the infection. Social distancing and lockdown measures modified people’s habits, while the Internet gained a ...major role in supporting remote working, e-teaching, online collaboration, gaming, video streaming, etc. All these sudden changes put unprecedented stress on the network.
In this paper, we analyze the impact of the lockdown enforcement on the Politecnico di Torino campus network. Right after the school shutdown on the 25th of February, PoliTO deployed its own in-house solution for virtual teaching. Ever since, the university provides about 600 virtual classes daily, serving more than 16 000 students per day. Here, we report a picture of how the pandemic changed PoliTO’s network traffic. We first focus on the usage of remote working and collaboration platforms. Given the peculiarity of PoliTO online teaching solution that is hosted in-house, we drill down on the traffic, characterizing both the audience and the network footprint. Overall, we present a snapshot of the abrupt changes seen on campus traffic due to COVID-19, and testify how the Internet has proved robust to successfully cope with challenges while maintaining the university operations.
Online education has become a vital weapon to fight against the COVID-19 epidemic in the world. In the home-based online education environment, female pre-school teachers are expected to balance the ...dual roles of teacher and mother at the same time, which may trigger the work-family conflict. Although previous studies analyzed individual stressors, work-family conflict and its outcomes, there is little research on pre-school teachers' work and parenting experience during major public health emergencies. The current study examined the associations among work overload, parenting stress, work-family conflict, and job satisfaction during the COVID-19. Seven hundred eighteen female pre-school teachers with children who worked online at home participated in the study. Female pre-school teachers reported that the COVID-19 has increased work overload and parenting stress. Moreover, work overload was negatively associated with job satisfaction via its positive association with work-to-family conflict. Parenting stress was negatively associated with job satisfaction via both family-to-work conflict and work-to-family conflict. The study contributes to a better understanding of the association among female pre-school teachers' work overload, parenting stress, work-family conflict, and job satisfaction. Our findings highlighted potential avenues for interventions aimed at balancing female pre-school teachers' work and family and improving their job satisfaction during the COVID-19.
With the outbreak of COVID-19 (Corona Virus Disease, 2019), China adopted traffic restrictions to reduce the spread of COVID-19. Using daily data before and after the outbreak of COVID-19, an ...exogenous shock, this paper analyzes the effects of private vehicle restriction policies on air pollution. We find that the private vehicle restriction policies reduce the degree of air pollution to a certain extent. However, their effect varies with other policies implemented in the same period and the economic development of the city itself. Through the analysis of different categories of restrictions, we find that restriction policy for local fuel vehicles and the restriction policy based on the last digit of license plate numbers have the best effect in reducing air pollution. Under the background of COVID-19 epidemic and the implementation of private vehicle restriction policies and other traffic control policies during this period, we have also obtained other enlightenment on air pollution control.
•The causal relationship between air pollution and restriction is analyzed.•An exogenous shock from COVID-19 is used to identify this relationship.•The private vehicle restriction reduces the degree of air pollution.•The restriction policies have heterogeneous effects.•The effects of restriction are affected by other policies against COVID-19.
In this study, we use the sample data from Jan 22, 2020 to Jan 21, 2022 to investigate the impacts of added infection number on the volatility of BDI. Under this structure, the control variables ...(freight rate, Brent crude oil price, container idle rate, port congestion level, global port calls) are added to test whether the information contained in the added infection number is covered. In the GARCH-MIDAS model, we divide the volatility of BDI into the long-term and short-term components, then employ in the least squares regression to empirically test the influences of added infection number on the volatility. From the analysis, we find the added infection numbers effectively impact the BDI volatility. In addition, whether the freight rate, Brent crude oil price, container idle rate, port congestion level, global port calls and other variables are considered alone or at the same time, further the added infection number still significantly influences the volatility of BDI. By studying the ability of the confirmed number to explain the volatility of BDI, a new insight is provided for the trend prediction of BDI that the shipping industry can take the epidemic development of various countries as a reference to achieve the purpose of cost or risk control.
At the time of writing this commentary (February 2020), the coronavirus COVID‐19 epidemic has already resulted in more fatalities compared with the SARS and MERS coronavirus epidemics combined. ...Therapeutics that may assist to contain its rapid spread and reduce its high mortality rates are urgently needed. Developing vaccines against the SARS‐CoV‐2 virus may take many months. Moreover, vaccines based on viral‐encoded peptides may not be effective against future coronavirus epidemics, as virus mutations could make them futile. Indeed, new Influenza virus strains emerge every year, requiring new immunizations. A tentative suggestion based on existing therapeutics, which would likely be resistant to new coronavirus mutations, is to use available angiotensin receptor 1 (AT1R) blockers, such as losartan, as therapeutics for reducing the aggressiveness and mortality from SARS‐CoV‐2 virus infections. This idea is based on observations that the angiotensin‐converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) very likely serves as the binding site for SARS‐CoV‐2, the strain implicated in the current COVID‐19 epidemic, similarly to strain SARS‐CoV implicated in the 2002–2003 SARS epidemic. This commentary elaborates on the idea of considering AT1R blockers as tentative treatment for SARS‐CoV‐2 infections, and proposes a research direction based on datamining of clinical patient records for assessing its feasibility.
As a major global public health emergency, the COVID-19 epidemic has had a significant impact on the development of the global port operation. Based on the data from 1 January 20191 January 2019 to ...31 December 202231 December 2022, this study utilizes the global spatial autocorrelation and local spatial autocorrelation to measure and evaluate the resistance and resilience of global ports. From the outcomes, we find that the overall level of resistance and resilience for the global ports is relatively low, further have not been effectively restored and adjusted, and the resilience of ports in the world is generally heterogeneous. In addition, the impact of the epidemic on global ports is temporary, where the resilience of ports has been significantly improved after the end of 2021, and most ports have recovered from the impact of the epidemic and have a positive trend in 2022. Meanwhile, the ports have a significant positive spatial correlation in response to the effect of the COVID-19 epidemic.
The unexpected outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic is an unpredictable event in shipping trade. In this paper, we mainly investigate the gaps that occur in the shipping trade between China and different ...regions during the period February-October 2020 and to provide useful information for operation management of shipping industry. The data include a panel obtained from the National Statistics Institute to analyze the gap where a selected group of shipping trade in three regions are considered: European Union, North America, and Southeast Asia. On this basis, a dynamic panel data model is proposed to estimate the trend. We observe that government prevention and control measures have a negative impact on export trade, while import trade increases accordingly.
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