Power systems for South and Central America based on 100% renewable energy (RE) in the year 2030 were calculated for the first time using an hourly resolved energy model. The region was subdivided ...into 15 sub-regions. Four different scenarios were considered: three according to different high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission grid development levels (region, country, area-wide) and one integrated scenario that considers water desalination and industrial gas demand supplied by synthetic natural gas via power-to-gas (PtG). RE is not only able to cover 1813 TWh of estimated electricity demand of the area in 2030 but also able to generate the electricity needed to fulfil 3.9 billion m3 of water desalination and 640 TWhLHV of synthetic natural gas demand. Existing hydro dams can be used as virtual batteries for solar and wind electricity storage, diminishing the role of storage technologies. The results for total levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) are decreased from 62 €/MWh for a highly decentralized to 56 €/MWh for a highly centralized grid scenario (currency value of the year 2015). For the integrated scenario, the levelized cost of gas (LCOG) and the levelized cost of water (LCOW) are 95 €/MWhLHV and 0.91 €/m3, respectively. A reduction of 8% in total cost and 5% in electricity generation was achieved when integrating desalination and power-to-gas into the system.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Three years to safeguard our climate Figueres, Christiana; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Whiteman, Gail ...
Nature (London),
06/2017, Letnik:
546, Številka:
7660
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
According to an April report1 (prepared by Carbon Tracker in London, the Climate Action Tracker consortium, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and Yale University in New ...Haven, Connecticut), should emissions continue to rise beyond 2020, or even remain level, the temperature goals set in Paris become almost unattainable. The UN Sustainable Development Goals that were agreed in 2015 would also be at grave risk. That's why we launched Mission 2020 - a collaborative campaign to raise ambition and action across key sectors to bend the greenhouse-gas emissions curve downwards by 2020 (www.mission2020.global).
Research on climate change impacts on renewable energy is becoming increasingly relevant due to the vulnerability of the sector and to the continual development of methodologies and availability of ...data. Public and private decision-making needs specific research. However, many gaps still exist in certain geographical regions and technologies. Providing economic estimates with a value chain perspective are also missing from most papers. This paper addresses the most relevant studies that project quantitative estimates of climate change impacts on solar, wind, hydro and other renewable generation technologies. Summary tables of impacts and projections are provided so that researchers, governments and the private sector may have an accurate view of the state-of-the-art on this topic.
•The impacts of climate change on renewables make up a growing area of research.•Despite uncertainties, climate models are the most well-trusted method.•Comparing projections is complex due to scopes, methodologies and variables.•Hydro and solar are more frequently analysed than other technologies.•Main gaps are lack of economics assessments and projections in developing countries.
In this paper we first make a review of the past annual production of electricity and the cumulative installed capacity for photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies. This ...together with the annual costs of PV modules and CSP systems allows us the determination of the experience curves and the corresponding learning rates. Then, we go over a rigorous exposition of the methodology employed for the calculation of the value of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for PV and CSP. Based on this knowledge, we proceed to establish a mathematical model which yields closed-form analytical expressions for the present value of the LCOE, as well as its future evolution (2010–2050) based on the International Energy Agency roadmaps for the cumulative installed capacity. Next, we explain in detail how specific values are assigned to the twelve independent variables which enter the LCOE formula: solar resource, discount and learning rates, initial cost and lifetime of the system, operational and maintenance costs, etc. With all this background, and making use of a simple computer simulation program, we can generate the following: sensitivity analysis curves, graphs on the evolution of the LCOE in the period 2010–2050, and calculations of the years at which grid parities will be reached. These representations prove to be very useful in energy planning policies, like tariff-in schemes, tax exemptions, etc., and in making investment decisions, since they allow, for a given location, to directly compare the costs of PV vs CSP power generation technologies for the period 2010–2050. Among solar technologies, PV seems always more appropriate for areas located in middle to high latitudes of the Earth, while CSP systems, preferably with thermal storage incorporated, yield their best performance in arid areas located at relatively low latitudes.
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