Objective
Since December 2019, an outbreak of corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) occurred in Wuhan, and rapidly spread to almost all parts of China. This was followed by prevention programs ...recommending Chinese medicine (CM) for the prevention. In order to provide evidence for CM recommendations, we reviewed ancient classics and human studies.
Methods
Historical records on prevention and treatment of infections in CM classics, clinical evidence of CM on the prevention of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and H1N1 influenza, and CM prevention programs issued by health authorities in China since the COVID-19 outbreak were retrieved from different databases and websites till 12 February, 2020. Research evidence included data from clinical trials, cohort or other population studies using CM for preventing contagious respiratory virus diseases.
Results
The use of CM to prevent epidemics of infectious diseases was traced back to ancient Chinese practice cited in Huangdi’s Internal Classic (Huang Di Nei Jing) where preventive effects were recorded. There were 3 studies using CM for prevention of SARS and 4 studies for H1N1 influenza. None of the participants who took CM contracted SARS in the 3 studies. The infection rate of H1N1 influenza in the CM group was significantly lower than the non-CM group (relative risk 0.36, 95% confidence interval 0.24–0.52; n=4). For prevention of COVID-19, 23 provinces in China issued CM programs. The main principles of CM use were to tonify qi to protect from external pathogens, disperse wind and discharge heat, and resolve dampness. The most frequently used herbs included
Radix astragali
(Huangqi),
Radix glycyrrhizae
(Gancao),
Radix saposhnikoviae
(Fangfeng),
Rhizoma Atractylodis Macrocephalae
(Baizhu),
Lonicerae Japonicae Flos
(Jinyinhua), and
Fructus forsythia
(Lianqiao).
Conclusions
Based on historical records and human evidence of SARS and H1N1 influenza prevention, Chinese herbal formula could be an alternative approach for prevention of COVID-19 in high-risk population. Prospective, rigorous population studies are warranted to confirm the potential preventive effect of CM.
Summary statistics, often derived from simplified models of epidemic spread, inform public health policy in real time. The instantaneous reproduction number,
Rt, is predominant among these ...statistics, measuring the average ability of an infection to multiply. However,
Rt encodes no temporal information and is sensitive to modelling assumptions. Consequently, some have proposed the epidemic growth rate,
rt, that is, the rate of change of the log‐transformed case incidence, as a more temporally meaningful and model‐agnostic policy guide. We examine this assertion, identifying if and when estimates of
rt are more informative than those of
Rt. We assess their relative strengths both for learning about pathogen transmission mechanisms and for guiding public health interventions in real time.
We construct a recursive Bayesian smoother, termed EpiFilter, for estimating the effective reproduction number, R, from the incidence of an infectious disease in real time and retrospectively. Our ...approach borrows from Kalman filtering theory, is quick and easy to compute, generalisable, deterministic and unlike many current methods, requires no change-point or window size assumptions. We model R as a flexible, hidden Markov state process and exactly solve forward-backward algorithms, to derive R estimates that incorporate all available incidence information. This unifies and extends two popular methods, EpiEstim, which considers past incidence, and the Wallinga-Teunis method, which looks forward in time. We find that this combination of maximising information and minimising assumptions significantly reduces the bias and variance of R estimates. Moreover, these properties make EpiFilter more statistically robust in periods of low incidence, where several existing methods can become destabilised. As a result, EpiFilter offers improved inference of time-varying transmission patterns that are advantageous for assessing the risk of upcoming waves of infection or the influence of interventions, in real time and at various spatial scales.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
This paper presents and studies a new epidemic SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) model with susceptible recruitment and eventual joint vaccination efforts for both newborn and susceptible ...individuals. Furthermore, saturation effects in the infection incidence terms are eventually assumed for both the infectious and the susceptible subpopulations. The vaccination action on newborn individuals is assumed to be applied to a fraction of them while that on the susceptible general population is of linear feedback type reinforced with impulsive vaccination actions (in practice, very strong and massive vaccination controls) at certain time points, based on information on the current levels of the susceptible subpopulation. Apart from the above vaccination controls, it is also assumed that the average of contagion contacts can be controlled via intervention measures, such as confinements or isolation measures, social distance rules, use of masks, mobility constraints, etc. The main objectives of the paper are the achievement of a strictly decreasing infection for all time periods and that of the susceptible individuals over the initial period if they exceed the disease-free equilibrium value. The monitoring mechanism is the combined activation of intervention measures to reduce the contagion contacts together with the impulsive vaccination to reduce susceptibility. The susceptibility and recovery levels of the disease-free equilibrium point are suitably prefixed by the design of the regular feedback vaccination on the susceptible subpopulation.
Objective: Since the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, cases of infection continue to increase and pose a great threat to the safety of people. When an individual perceives a threat in ...the environment, a stress reaction is automatically triggered. Long-term stress can lead to severe mental problems. Thus, the present study aims to assess the relationship between information disclosure and psychological anxiety and to determine the mediating role of epidemic prevention satisfaction and epidemic prevention confidence. Method: A survey is conducted on 1,439 respondents to determine the mental health of Chinese residents during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The logit method is used to explore the correlation between information disclosure and psychological anxiety. Furthermore, the bootstrap decomposition method is used to verify the mediation effects of different aspects of epidemic prevention satisfaction and epidemic prevention confidence. Results: The study finds that information disclosure exerts a negative impact on psychological anxiety attributable to COVID-19 (β = −.085, p < .001), whereas epidemic prevention satisfaction and epidemic prevention confidence mediated the relationship between information disclosure and psychological anxiety. Conclusions: In exploring means to cope with challenges attributable to COVID-19, the study finds that information disclosure not only improves epidemic prevention satisfaction and epidemic prevention confidence but also buffers psychological anxiety attributable to COVID-19. Therefore, timely and accurate information from the government is beneficial for improving epidemic prevention satisfaction and epidemic prevention confidence and for alleviating psychological anxiety among Chinese residents.
Clinical Impact StatementThis study directly influences clinical practice, because it provides tangible data on the experiences of Chinese people after the COVID-19 breakout. Using these data, the study found that epidemic information disclosure enhances sense of control and increases satisfaction with and confidence in epidemic control and prevention measures with the spread of COVID-19, which thereby alleviates psychological anxiety. The results also suggested several preventive measures. Given the current status of epidemic control and prevention, effective information on COVID-19 should be actively disclosed (e.g., effective infection prevention).
The rapid spread of the epidemic has aroused widespread concern in the international community. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐COV‐2) was first reported in China, with bats as ...the likely original hosts and pangolins as potential intermediate hosts. The current source of the disease is mainly patients infected with SARS‐COV‐2. Patients in the incubation period may also become sources of infection. The virus is mainly transmitted via respiratory droplets and contact, and the population is generally susceptible. The epidemic has progressed through the local outbreak stage and community transmission stage due to exposure at Wuhan's Huanan wholesale seafood market and is now in the stage of large‐scale transmission due to the spread of the epidemic. The basic productive number (R0) at the beginning of the epidemic was 2.2, with an average incubation period of 5.2 days. The proportion of critically ill patients was 23.4%, the mortality rate was lower than those of SARS and Middle East respiratory syndrome, and 96.5% of deaths occurred in Hubei Province, where the outbreak occurred first. Among them, elderly men with underlying diseases had a higher mortality rate. Chinese medical staff have summarized a set of effective strategies and methods in the diagnosis and treatment of this disease that are worthy of reference for their international counterparts. With powerful government intervention and the efforts of Chinese medical staff, China's outbreak has gradually improved.
Research Highlights
The current source of the disease is mainly patients infected with SARS‐COV‐2. Patients in the incubation period may also become sources of infection.
The virus is mainly transmitted via respiratory droplets and contact, and the population is generally susceptible.
The proportion of critically ill patients was 23.4%, the mortality rate was lower than those of SARS and Middle East respiratory syndrome. Among them, elderly men with underlying diseases had a higher mortality rate.
No time for complacency Clark, Kathryn
Veterinary record,
09/2019, Letnik:
185, Številka:
11
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
(By way of comparison, statistics from Defra record that there were 4.65 million pigs on agricultural holdings across the UK in December 2018, meaning that Vietnam has slaughtered the equivalent of ...the entire UK pig population in just seven months.) That said, the ASF epidemic in Europe is spreading more slowly than the one in Asia, and the structure of the UK pig industry is very different from that in China and Vietnam, with far fewer small-scale backyard pig keepers. In an effort to raise awareness of the risk of unwitting importation of the virus in pork products brought in by the travelling public, Defra has been running a campaign at UK ports, airports and train stations, and on social media, over the summer but, as has been pointed out by this journal previously, it is limited in its ability to ban such imports outright (VR, 22 June 2019, vol 184, p 749). No vaccine is available for ASF, although much research is ongoing, including in UK institutes. ...it pays off, and an effective vaccine is developed, tight biosecurity and culling will remain cornerstones of disease control.
By April 2, 2020, >1 million persons worldwide were infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. We used a mathematical model to investigate the effectiveness of social distancing ...interventions in a mid-sized city. Interventions reduced contacts of adults >60 years of age, adults 20-59 years of age, and children <19 years of age for 6 weeks. Our results suggest interventions started earlier in the epidemic delay the epidemic curve and interventions started later flatten the epidemic curve. We noted that, while social distancing interventions were in place, most new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were averted, even with modest reductions in contact among adults. However, when interventions ended, the epidemic rebounded. Our models suggest that social distancing can provide crucial time to increase healthcare capacity but must occur in conjunction with testing and contact tracing of all suspected cases to mitigate virus transmission.
Celotno besedilo
Dostopno za:
DOBA, IZUM, KILJ, NUK, ODKLJ, PILJ, PNG, SAZU, SIK, UILJ, UKNU, UL, UM, UPUK
Recreational Sports, Junior Highschool Sports, and Highschool Sports are witnessing across all types of sports a decline in sports officials. Athletic directors in all three levels have seen a ...steadily declined in sports officials in the last twenty years. But since the COVID-19 Pandemic, the lack of sports officials has increased so rapidly that it could eventually become a nationwide crisis. The pandemic may have caused the decline of sports officials but it was not the only cause. The age of the sports officials has played a role in the decline of the sport's officials. But the true main cause of losing sports officials has been the lack of respect for the sport's officials through the behavior of players, coaches, family members, and sports fans.
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