We propose to extend demographic multistate models by adding a behavioural element: behavioural rules explain intentions and thus transitions. Our framework is inspired by the Theory of Planned ...Behaviour. We exemplify our approach with a model of migration from Senegal to France. Model parameters are determined using empirical data where available. Parameters for which no empirical correspondence exists are determined by calibration. Age- and period-specific migration rates are used for model validation. Our approach adds to the toolkit of demographic projection by allowing for shocks and social influence, which alter behaviour in non-linear ways, while sticking to the general framework of multistate modelling. Our simulations yield that higher income growth in Senegal leads to higher emigration rates in the medium term, while a decrease in fertility yields lower emigration rates.
In Europe, the slowdown in working-age population growth and population aging pose challenges, particularly vis-à-vis the current and future volume of labor supply. Throughout the 2010s, these ...demographic transformations took place against a backdrop of increasing migration flows and stocks. This IMR Research Note aims to enrich the discussion of the aforementioned issues and to provide methodological and empirical evidence on the role of migration stocks in shaping changes over time in two main aspects of the European labor supply: the size of the labor force and aggregate labor force participation rates from 2006 to 2018. Based on annual LFS data, we use a mixed standardization and decomposition method to determine to what extent trends in the European labor supply are driven over time by changes in population or in labor force participation rates within specific groups selected on the basis of age, gender, birth country (native- versus foreign-born), and origin country (European Union versus non-European Union). Our Research Note points out that, despite the upward trend in the labor force participation rates of native-born women and of native-born persons aged 55 years and over, the increase in labor supply in the European Union and in the 10 European countries under study in this article between 2006 and 2018 was driven by foreign-born persons. These developments suggest that, in a context of political desire for less migration, international migration has become a structural feature of European labor markets.
No Brasil, entre 2011 e 2022, 348.067 pessoas solicitaram o reconhecimento da
condição de refugiado no país. Os motivos que resultaram na migração, os riscos
durante o trajeto e a transição cultural ...ao chegar podem estar associados a
diferentes problemas de saúde. O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar as condições
de saúde autorrelatadas por solicitantes de refúgio no Município do Rio de
Janeiro no período de 2010 a 2017. Trata-se de um estudo transversal de dados
secundários. Foram coletadas informações preenchidas nos formulários de
solicitação de refúgio do Comitê Nacional para os Refugiados (Conare) de 2010 a
2017 e da entrevista social da Cáritas Arquidiocesana do Rio de Janeiro
(Cáritas/RJ). Calcularam-se as taxas de prevalência de condições de saúde e
respectivos intervalos de 95% de confiança (IC95%) e a razão de chances (RC) e
IC95% em um modelo de regressão logística simples segundo variáveis
sociodemográficas e de migração. O estudo incluiu 1.509 indivíduos. Na chegada
ao Brasil, 620 (41%) relataram ter uma ou mais condições de saúde. As chances de
apresentar problemas de saúde foram maiores em pessoas oriundas do Congo (RC =
18,7) e República Democrática do Congo (RC = 9,5), nos indocumentados (RC =
4,4), nas mulheres (RC = 2,1), em pessoas com Ensino Fundamental (RC = 1,9), com
idade ≥ 45 anos (RC = 1,8) e entre os que vivem/viveram maritalmente (RC = 1,8 e
2,5, respectivamente). Entre as pessoas que relataram alguma condição de saúde,
mais da metade informaram sentir dores (52%). É possível que as dores físicas
tenham relação com estresse pós-traumático e outros sofrimentos em saúde mental,
que podem se manifestar por meio de sintomas de dores somáticas.
Abstract We estimate the push and pull factors involved in the outmigration of Jews facing persecution in Nazi Germany from 1933 to 1941. Our empirical investigation makes use of a unique ...individual-level data set that records the migration history of the Jewish community in Germany over the period. Our analysis highlights new channels, specific to violent contexts, through which social networks affect the decision to flee. We estimate a structural model of migration where individuals base their migration decision on the observation of persecution and migration among their peers. Identification rests on exogenous variations in local push and pull factors across peers who live in different cities of residence. Then we perform various experiments of counterfactual history to quantify how migration restrictions in destination countries affected the fate of Jews. For example, removing work restrictions for refugees in the recipient countries after the Nuremberg Laws (1935) would have led to an increase in Jewish migration out of Germany in the range of 12% to 20% and a reduction in mortality due to prevented deportations in the range of 6% to 10%.
•There are many migratory ties across the world countries and beyond local migrations.•As the severity of network ties increase, the number of tiesR reduce and asymmetric.•Most of the migrations ...taken place outside the near and neighboring countries•There are major migration paths to some of the international migration centers•Migrations occur mostly within "Migratory Clusters".
At the global level, international migration can be considered as a network of migration exchanges between different countries. Employing an exploratory network analysis of the international migration structure, the present paper examines the structural characteristics of this network and the status of the countries. The analysis is done using the socio-spatial approach. Results show that as the severity of network ties grow, the number of ties reduce significantly and ties are asymmetric. Most of the migrations in the international migration structure have also taken place outside the near and neighboring countries. The network analysis showed two migration patterns of "International Migratory Highways" and "Migratory Clusters". In the first migration pattern, migrations are largely asymmetric and towards the major centers of immigration, while in the second one, migrations are mostly symmetric and within specific geographical areas.
Purpose. The purpose of the article is to develop the theoretical and methodological foundations for the study of return migration policy based on its information support, including regression ...analysis and authors’ sociological research on return intentions of Ukrainian migrants.
Methodology / approach. The mathematical tools were used for the assessment of Ukraine’s economical losses, related to migration. With the help of the sociological method (survey) migrants’ intentions and main motives to return were investigated. Stepwise regression model was built for identification of main factors of Ukrainian population’s international migration. Besides, general scientific methods were used in the study, such as: analysis, generalization, systematization, tabular and graphical.
Results. Analysis showed the lack of statistical and sociological information on international migration (particularly return migration) of Ukrainian population. It substantiates the need for improving the system of information provision of migration policy. The results of the survey of the migrants from the Carpathian region of Ukraine (conducted in 2020) show low level of their readiness to return. According to the answers to the questionnaire, there are two main circumstances that could motivate migrants to return: high level of wages and general improving of economic situation in Ukraine. Due to the regression model it was found that the emigration of the population is influenced by the following factors: average monthly wages, gross regional product per capita, foreign direct investment per economically active person and the share of the population with incomes below the subsistence level. The article provides main benefits and ways of implementation of the return migration policy. Particularly, circular migration is considered as a good way to slow down losses of human resources. It is beneficial for all institutional units of the migration process.
Originality / scientific novelty. The methodology for the consequences of international migration study is improved. In particular, the formula for determination of migration losses through the calculation of economic activity losses is proposed and calculated for the first time. The theoretical foundation of return migration policy is developed. In particular, the model of return migration process on the individual level is elaborated. The sociological tool for the return migration investigation is developed and tested.
Practical value / implications. The practical recommendations for the human resources conservation are worked out. The questions for the survey, developed by the authors, could be used in further investigations in this issue. The model of return migration process is useful for developing a comprehensive return migration policy, which could support migrants at all stages of this process: decisions making, movement and reintegration.
This paper examines whether a forced displacement of an ethnic group can lead to long-run changes to their spatial distribution and whether this shock can also lead to changes in where new migrants ...settle. I use the Canadian government’s internment of Japanese Canadians during World War II, as well as their post-war forced resettlement, as a natural experiment. I find that the policy led to dramatic resettlement patterns; areas where Japanese Canadians were removed from had far fewer Japanese Canadians after World War II, with this effect persisting for decades. Despite these displacement patterns, I find that both the pre-war and post-war settlement patterns drive where new Japanese migrants settle within Canada, suggesting that the disruption of the connections and networks formed by Japanese migrants before World War II were not fully dismantled by the Canadian government’s wartime policies. Reinforcing this mechanism, I show using Facebook’s social connectedness data that Japanese population shares from both 1931 and 1951 predict whether a Canadian Census Division is more socially connected with Japan today. The results from this paper show that, despite Canada’s forced dispersal of its Japanese population across the country, networks and forces that connect Census Divisions to Japan and draw in new migrants continued to persist.
•Citation patterns are examined empirically in a reduced-form gravity-style framework.•Administrative barriers to mobility reduce opportunities for knowledge diffusion.•Immigration policy and travel ...visa requirements reduce the bilateral knowledge flows.•Knowledge-exporter's policy has a larger short-term effect (relative to importer).•The results pass a placebo test using leading values of the policy.
Face-to-face contact, even temporary one, helps researchers form personal ties and transfer tacit knowledge. The ability of researchers to colocate, including attendance at international conferences, workshops and seminars, is affected by the administrative barriers to international mobility. This paper uses a gravity-style empirical framework to examine the link between international knowledge flows and immigration policies. The results suggest that the paper walls erected by such policies reduce not just the mobility of individuals, but also the diffusion of knowledge. A moderately restrictive mobility barrier reduces incoming and outgoing knowledge flows by about 0.8–1.3% per year. The effect of knowledge-exporting country's policy persists for nearly 10 years. There is also a short-term asymmetry: diffusion of recent knowledge is affected more by the immigration policy of a knowledge-exporter rather than a knowledge-importer.
•A Case Study and Synthetic Control Study of how mass migration impacted Israel’s economic institutions.•Finds that mass migration from the former Soviet Union was associated with substantial ...increases in economic freedom.•Finds that political institutions were unchanged by mass migration.•Finds that institutional change was generated mainly through immigrant participation in the political process.
The relaxation of emigration restrictions in the Soviet Union and the State’s subsequent collapse led to a large exogenous shock to Israel’s immigrant flows because Israel allows unrestricted immigration for world-wide Jews. Israel’s population increased by 20% in the 1990s due to immigration from the former Soviet Union. These immigrants did not bring social capital that eroded the quality of Israel’s institutional environment. We find that economic institutions’ improved substantially over the decade. Our synthetic control methodology indicates that it is likely that the institutions improvement would not have occurred to the same degree without the mass migration. Our case study indicates that immigrant participation in the political process is the main mechanism through which the migration caused institutional change.
Since the nineties, a new migratory flow of Peruvians to Argentina have been activated as part of the South-South regional proximity dynamics. This article approaches, from a transnational ...perspective, the Peru-Argentina migratory field, oriented to Buenos Aires as a global city. The article inquiries about the dimensions of migrant transnationalism in the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires, as a part of globalized multipolar system. We used a qualitative approach—60 in-depth interviews—, with a selection based on an intentional theoretical sampling to study migratory trajectories of Peruvians, focusing on the migrant as a subject. Migrants and their families deploy mobilities and arrangements in the metropolitan territories, articulated in a transnational migratory space through three dimensions: family, cultural identity and citizenship, displaying logics of multiterritoriality and multiscalarity.
PDF
